Tyler Thornburg

[JohnBriggs12]

Thornburg is a key guy in this pitching staff. His stuff is nasty. I was at the game today and the body language of the middle of the Cardinal order said it all. They looked like they knew they didn't have a chance. I think he'd do fine as a starter or reliever but he's way too valuable to be at Nashville right now.

 

Don't wish to jinx him but he's pitched like an All Star to this point.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Until Estrada does something to deserve being pulled from the rotation you leave this thing as is for now. Thornburg is having early success this year in the pen. That doesn't mean he needs to be in the rotation. He has upside, but a lot of his success right now is due to the fact he doesn't have to hold back. He can unleash that 95-98mph fastball all he wants in relief, which makes his off speed stuff much better.

 

Let him learn in the pen and be successful. The Cards have been doing this for years and it works. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, and the list goes on.

 

No matter how good Estrada is doing it could make him expendable. I would do a packaged deal at mid-season and trade Estrada, Nelson, and HellWeg for a big time 3B man that is controlled for at least 3 years or longer. Estrada is about to get very expensive. Then I'd just move Thornburg into the rotation. In the off-season I'd trade Ramirez and a prospect for a top SP prospect for depth. Ramirez if Healthy will have a great year this year and will be worth a lot in the next off-season. Roache will fill 1B the year after and we will have zero holes to fill. Just re-sign Gallardo. He will sign a team friendly deal I'd bet. The way Lohse is pitching and the type of pitcher he is we could extend him 2 more years with an option and he will pitch just fine.

 

We need a good 3B man, and have to think about replacing Ramirez.

 

Not sure what you consider a big time 3B, but Estrada, Nelson, and Hellweg will not return anything "big-time." Let alone big time under team control for 3 years.

 

I am with you though. We need to move him at some point and if he is doing well mid-season would be a good time to do that. I have no faith in Melvin to pull the trigger. Brewers typically hold players too long. See Hart and Casey Mcgehee.

 

I also think you are assuming a lot to think ARam will return a top SP prospect, and assuming even more that Roache will progress enough to contribute in 2015. I sure hope he does, but his struggles with breaking pitches will only be amplified as he faces better pitching.

 

Aram will no doubt return a lo if he has a great year in 2014. I don't see how anybody can debate that. Estrada if he keep up with the quality starts a team desperate for good pitching will have to pay a premium for pitching and that means estrada, and include him with our top pitching prospect Nelson, and you will get a ton in return, perhaps swap Hellweg for Hanniger, or include them both and well get that 3B man.

 

Roache will be ready. I'm not worried about him at all.

[danzig6767]

Thornburg is a key guy in this pitching staff. His stuff is nasty. I was at the game today and the body language of the middle of the Cardinal order said it all. They looked like they knew they didn't have a chance. I think he'd do fine as a starter or reliever but he's way too valuable to be at Nashville right now.

 

Don't wish to jinx him but he's pitched like an All Star to this point.

His command has been amazing, especially the changeup. He's been able to throw that pitch at any point for strikes and it's left hitters in a really tough spot given the fastball is in the mid-90's and often hitting the corners.

 

Thornburg obviously isn't going to continue having a .000 ERA, but if he can consistently continue to hit his spots with that nasty changeup, there is no reason why he can't be very good the rest of the year. Hell, just look at the current version of K-Rod. He'll throw the curveball once in awhile, but he's mainly now a fastball/changeup guy and having lots of success with a 88-90mph fastball. Thornburg is in the 93-95 range.

[HiAndTight]

I don't see how we can even begin to guess as to when Victor Roache is going to contribute to the big league team. I think right now the odds are a lot stronger that he will never turn into a viable big league starter than they are that he's going to be ready to contribute to a team that's looking to contend next season. He's in HiA right now(and struggling at the moment, though he's had very few at bats).

 

PrinceFielderX1, have you personally watched him play a lot? I'm just going off scouting reports and a couple of games I watched him play and I'm just not seeing the can't miss prospect you seem to be. I have far more confidence in Tyrone Taylor and others than I do in Roache at this point. Though he is a guy who if he hits and reaches his ceiling, he could be a stud for us. But I would think further down the road than you are.

 

As for Aramis Ramirez, he has an option. A mutual option. He can earn 14 million next year(which I would assume the Brewers would pick up if he has a big year) but on the flip side, if he's having a big year, he'll likely opt out and try to get another 3 year 40 million dollar deal. Any trade would mean that the team getting him wouldn't be able to offer him arbitration. So if you're talking about trading him this year he may well have quite a bit of value for a contender with a need at 3rd, but if you're talking about next year, I'm assuming if he's playing well enough to net a top tier pitching prospect, he's playing well enough to opt out.

 

I'm not going to go any further down the Estrada rabbit hole other than to reiterate the same question. What would you give up for a 31 year old starting pitcher with an average fastball of 88 MPH who doesn't have one single season he can look back on in which he pitched more than 138 innings.

[endaround]

Keep in mind Aramis walked away from $16m from the Cubs because he wanted to control where he played and then signed below market with Milwaukee so he didn't have to travel far from his Chicago home. If he thinks Milwaukee will trade him he'll likely decline and try a go with the Sox.

[gregmag]

Everything else aside, I think the claims about Estrada's health record are a little exaggerated -- like the claim that he's proved "year after year" that he can't stay healthy as a starter. Two years ago he made 29 appearances, 23 starts. Last year he made 21 starts. Apparently he's healthy now. I'm not sure why you would assume he won't make 25 starts this year. If that's the over-under, I'll take the over.

[djoctagone]

of all the pitchers currently on the 40-man roster with a decent chance to make the club out of spring training, thornburg looks to be the only one that could serve as the long reliever. alfredo figaro and marco estrada are gone, and jimmy nelson has all but been assured a spot in the rotation.

 

thornburg was scheduled to throw his first bullpen session this past tuesday, and if no problems, again yesterday. any reports on how this went?

[MVP2110]

I would prefer Thornburg get sent to AAA to stay stretched out as a starter. Let Will Smith be the long reliever/spot starter in the pen.

[Outlander]

If Thornburg is really healthy I would like to see him compete with Nelson for the final rotation spot. Still think Thornburg could be better than Nelson.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Thornburg is really healthy I would like to see him compete with Nelson for the final rotation spot. Still think Thornburg could be better than Nelson.

 

I like Thornburg starting in AAA to begin the season rather in the role of long man in the pen. Could he be better than Nelson? Sure. But it's not a competition between just those two. When Thornburg is ready to pick up where he left off at the end of 2013, they will need to find a spot for him. That could come from an injury or a trade or through ineffectiveness of any of the starters not just Nelson.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Thornburg is really healthy I would like to see him compete with Nelson for the final rotation spot. Still think Thornburg could be better than Nelson.

 

Thornburg 5'11"-190

Nelson 6'6"-245

 

Nelson has the build that is going to keep him at Starter. Thornburg's Health has to be a concern and he will need to be accustomed to Relief Roles not Starting.

 

Meanwhile 6'6" 210 Taylor Jungmann heads the AAA SP staff and will be the emergency SP if/when needed.

 

Personally, as I recall a mentioning back in the day Thornburg's multiple Pitches/velocity made him a potential Closer potential after he had time to be groomed for one. His height being the reason he's not thought of for a SP. It would show with his 37.4% GB rate for his career thus far. Nelson sits at 48% thus far. Thornburg loses some velocity moving back to SP role. It's not quite 2MPH but fairly close.

 

Gotta stick with the belief he's going to be the long man, and I'm fine with it. There's going to be enough multiple Innings for him to fill and it'll actually be nice to have someone whom it's easy to believe just 3ERA can be achieved being that.

Remember this is the "Avg" Staff. We're talking 6IP 3.70ERA types. There's going to be 3 or 4IP outings that Thornburg can come in and pull off 3-4IP to get through that game. Or He's also a very nice guy to be able to turn to if we have a Tie game heading to Extras. I'd rather Thornburg who proved himself out of the Pen last season in that role than to stuff Nelson in the RP role because Thornburg looks slightly better than Jimmy to Start. Those 7Inches are a big GB producing impact vs FB tendencies that Thornburg is going to fight. It's best for the Organization to stick with Nelson Long-Term while it works vs. thrusting a Battle that lasts 1 season and inhibits Nelson's growth as a SP.

[paul253]

Thornburg's Health has to be a concern and he will need to be accustomed to Relief Roles not Starting.

 

Thornburg was starting his entire career up until last year. Did he health issues before? It seems like his biggest health issue came when he was switched to the bullpen.

 

I don't think you put him in the bullpen just because of his size. All throughout the minors he had success as a starter. Then he comes up here and has success as a starter. If Roenecke hadn't been so infatuated with Marco Estrada Thornburg would have been given a fair shot at the rotation last season. I think he deserves a shot at the rotation now. Lohse Garza and Peralta are obviously shoe-ins. Let Fiers, Thornburg, and Nelson fight it out for the last two spots. I'm so sick of this organization complaining about how they are looking for more pitching when they refuse to give their own guys legitimate chances.

[brewcrewdue80]

Starting Pitchers who had more than 50IP last season heights:

5'9"-Marcus Stroman with a 53.8% GB rate

5'10"-Mike Leake-53.4% GB-

5'11"-Johnyy Cueto, Sonny Gray 55.3% GB rate, Bartolo Colon

6'0"-Anibel Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Wei-Yin Chen, Henderson Alvarez, Danny Salazar, Wade Miley, Bud Norris- 11

6'1"-10

6'2"-19

6'3"-22

6'4"-13

6'5"-9

6'6"-8

6'7"-6

 

5 total SPs last season under 6" who accumulated better than 1.5FWAR. 98 other SPs taller than 6" accumulated 1.5+FWAR As seen popular is 6'3" and 6'2"

 

I also posted that 3 of those under 6" had a Ground Ball Rate above 53% clearly something contributing to their success(vs Thornburg's 37.4%)

 

The odds are far from Thornburg's favor due to his height. And with Milw possessing Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann with Hellweg/Wagner/Pena with maybe Jed Bradley/Brooks Hall/Tyler Cravy maybe making waves in 2015. I just don't believe it's better for Milw to play Thornburg a year when he stands likely to see himself fazed out of it in 2016...Especially if he's not producing to under 3.6ERA numbers.(which will be hard given his FB/Line Drive tendencies and MP)

 

I'd agree with making a case for him if he were going to Pitching in a Pitchers ballpark where FlyBalls fall harmlessly for Outs vs HRs. Miller Park isn't that though. And what's his Velocity going to be as a Starter after he returns?

 

If Nelson and Jungmann are long term viable options moreso as SPs than RPs, then the team should look their way for the next 6years.

[pete]

There's a bunch of guys in there shorter than I thought. TT was rolling as a starter. I wondered if he warmed up too fast or not enough when he switched to relieving. He seems like a starter to me, but there's nobody in the starting 5 I would take out so... you got me.

 

One or both of the top 100 lists had Cards Kaminsky on it and he's listed as 5'11" in A ball and Marco Gonzalez isn't tall.

[jerichoholicninja]

Starting Pitchers who had more than 50IP last season heights:

5'9"-Marcus Stroman with a 53.8% GB rate

5'10"-Mike Leake-53.4% GB-

5'11"-Johnyy Cueto, Sonny Gray 55.3% GB rate, Bartolo Colon

6'0"-Anibel Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Wei-Yin Chen, Henderson Alvarez, Danny Salazar, Wade Miley, Bud Norris- 11

6'1"-10

6'2"-19

6'3"-22

6'4"-13

6'5"-9

6'6"-8

6'7"-6

 

5 total SPs last season under 6" who accumulated better than 1.5FWAR. 98 other SPs taller than 6" accumulated 1.5+FWAR As seen popular is 6'3" and 6'2"

 

I also posted that 3 of those under 6" had a Ground Ball Rate above 53% clearly something contributing to their success(vs Thornburg's 37.4%)

 

The odds are far from Thornburg's favor due to his height. And with Milw possessing Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann with Hellweg/Wagner/Pena with maybe Jed Bradley/Brooks Hall/Tyler Cravy maybe making waves in 2015. I just don't believe it's better for Milw to play Thornburg a year when he stands likely to see himself fazed out of it in 2016...Especially if he's not producing to under 3.6ERA numbers.(which will be hard given his FB/Line Drive tendencies and MP)

 

I'd agree with making a case for him if he were going to Pitching in a Pitchers ballpark where FlyBalls fall harmlessly for Outs vs HRs. Miller Park isn't that though. And what's his Velocity going to be as a Starter after he returns?

 

If Nelson and Jungmann are long term viable options moreso as SPs than RPs, then the team should look their way for the next 6years.

 

Chicken or the egg.

 

Do shorter people make not as good pitchers or do teams just avoid shorter pitchers. I believe it's more because teams just avoid shorter players. I remember reading an article a few years ago that said most teams won't even scout a pitcher unless he's over 6'2". Seems rather stupid to me to ignore a large portion of the population just because of their height. This isn't basketball.

[paul253]

The odds are far from Thornburg's favor due to his height.

 

Fine.....but why not determined how good of a starter he'll be based on his actual results instead of simply writing him off because of his height? Can an organization like this really afford to do that?

 

And with Milw possessing Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann with Hellweg/Wagner/Pena with maybe Jed Bradley/Brooks Hall/Tyler Cravy maybe making waves in 2015.

I'll take Thornburg over Jungmann, Hellweg, Pena, Bradley, Hall and Cravy any day of the week. Not just for 2015 but for a career. What, other than height and maybe groundball ratio, do any of those guys have over Thornburg? Bradley is built like an ox yet he can't stay healthy. Same with Hall, who only pitched 26 innings last year. Hellweg isn't healthy, nor can he throw strikes. Pena can't throw strikes and is much better suited for the bullpen than Thornburg. Cravy is a 25 year old who only has 3 innings above AA. Wagner hasn't pitched above A ball and Jungmann profiles at best as a #5. Thornburg outperformed all of them in the minors AND has already had success as a major league starter when given the opportunity. I'm not suggesting he's a Cy Young finalist or a consistent 20 game winner. But he deserves a shot. I think he could be a solid #4 starting pitcher.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'll take Thornburg over Jungmann, Hellweg, Pena, Bradley, Hall and Cravy any day of the week. Not just for 2015 but for a career. What, other than height and maybe groundball ratio, do any of those guys have over Thornburg? Bradley is built like an ox yet he can't stay healthy. Same with Hall, who only pitched 26 innings last year. Hellweg isn't healthy, nor can he throw strikes. Pena can't throw strikes and is much better suited for the bullpen than Thornburg. Cravy is a 25 year old who only has 3 innings above AA. Wagner hasn't pitched above A ball and Jungmann profiles at best as a #5. Thornburg outperformed all of them in the minors AND has already had success as a major league starter when given the opportunity. I'm not suggesting he's a Cy Young finalist or a consistent 20 game winner. But he deserves a shot. I think he could be a solid #4 starting pitcher.

 

Bolded part would miss my point on Thornburg. Do you keep Thornburg as an Emergency Starter(losing to Fiers/Nelson at SP) for all of 2015 while Cravy pitches as a Starter Full-time in AAA in 2015 like Jungmann who should be successful make the team in 2016 as SPs over Thornburg who gets releagated to a full on Bullpen role then regardless?

Trevor Rosenthal dominated in the Minors was a top 50 prospect and all the Cardinals did was insert him in to their late inning BP role/Closer full time when ready.

Theres very good reason to believe Rosenthal is a much better option to Start games for the Cardinals in 2014 than the likes of John Lackey(10), Jaime Garcia(7), Tyler Lyons(4), Nick Greenwood(1), Justin Masterson(6), And we'll at least say competition to suggest he could been more worthy to start over Marco Gonzales(5) and Joe Kelly(7)

 

But he didn't. He was their Closer now.

 

Thornburg has 10 Career Starts. 3 of them in 2012 where in 13IP he gave up 6HRs.(only had 1 in the Minors) Now of course in 2013 He had 7 Games Started and didn't give up 1 HR.(but had 11 in the Minors) That's good, but which Thornburg are you going to expect moving forward as a SP? When he's a 37% Ground Ball rate? Also in his 10 Starts only 1 did he pitch in to the 7th inning. 43IP 34Ks 7.1/K9 the Good Starter. Whereas he's 8.5k/9 as a RP in 2014. Looking at 1.4 outs every 27 that are K outs(not facing a Pitcher mind you) for a guy who gives up 62% of his batted balls as Flyballs/Line Drives.

 

He may pass the eye test as a SP but how much a difference is he as a SP vs being used with his arsenal as a Late Innings RP? There was a post someone put on the Brewers Tilt philosophy follow through to promote Downward Plane in their pitches inducing Ground Balls. I'm just looking at 5'11" vs 6'6" more than likely helping that outcome happen.

 

I'd also like to have a highly talented home-grown Pitcher at the tail end of the bullpen if possible. Once with control/pitches to work with, not just a 96-98MPH FB and a prayer the 2nd pitch works when it doesn't. It'd be one thing if Thornburg threw absolute gas 96+ with his FB but he works 91-92 as a SP with his height disadvantage. 93-95 as a RP.

 

I'd agree with you if his GB rate were higher, if he didn't have a problem with giving up HRs(when adding his Minors HRs with Majors), if he Struck out more batters as a SP. That's what Fiers has going for him(at 6'2") Estrada still had going for him at 6' with eerily similar pcts as Thornburg.

 

Theres just so much working against him for him to be counted on as an effective SP.

 

I guess the simplest way to put it is I see Thornburg as a 3.75ERA SP meeting expectations. And see him as a 2.80ERA RP meeting expectations. If Jungmann comes in and is a 3.9ERA SP w/o any RP numbers to go by, if Jungmann offers you 3.5ERA RP vs 3.9ERA SP who do you want as your combo? The .15ERA difference in SPs? OR the .70ERA difference in RP? What if Jungmann gives you 10IP more with his 6'6" frame as a SP at that .15ERA cost over a season?

 

I'm just preferring the 3.9ERA/2.8ERA duo over the 3.75/3.5 ERA duo.

[dacbrewers]

Anyone hear about Thornburg's bullpen session, I would be interested to know where his velocity is at?

[Warning Track Power]

I think the "ideal" situation for the Brewers moving forward after 2015 is a rotation consisting of:

 

1. Peralta, a budding high end 2/low end 1

2. Nelson, a potential Peralta clone

3. Fiers, becoming a Lohse clone. In other words, mid 3s ERA type of pitcher with a low WHIP

4. Jungmann, a sinker baller with an ERA in the high 3s

5. Garza until another pitcher develops (Smith) or is traded for like Jordan Zimmerman

 

Coupling that ideal with the lefty in Smith and some combo of Thornburg-Knebel in the 8th-9th and the Brewers have the makings of a wonderful pitching staff. Now I know that's all very unlikely but I think that's what they are truly hoping for.

[pacopete4]

Until Thorny can get his ball to cut or move, I really do not want to see him starting for us. The second or third time through the order, he'll get swatted around.

[JohnBriggs12]

Until Thorny can get his ball to cut or move, I really do not want to see him starting for us. The second or third time through the order, he'll get swatted around.

 

Yeah like he did in his 7 starts in 2013 when the 3rd time through the order, they swatted him around for a .205/.311/.205 line against him. That's right he faced 46 hitters the 3rd time through and not one of them recorded an extra base hit against him.

 

How about pitch count wearing him down? Hitters were 7 for 39 (.179 ave) again with zero extra base hits from pitch 76 on.

 

Thornburg was a completely different pitcher when he started in 2013. He had become a pitcher rather than a thrower and was using all his pitches. When moved the pen last year, he just rared back and fired mostly high heat. It worked for about a month but then you could see he'd lost a bit of zip, and he started losing command and zip both telltale signs something was bothering him.

[SoupTown]

JohnBriggs, thanks for the insight. Are you cherry picking? It seems to me any starter (forget his name) who came up, started 7 times, and had the results you note, would be pencilled in as a starter forever... until he UNearned it.

[clancyphile]

If starting pitchers under 6'2" are being undervalued... then perhaps that is one area the Crew should look into investing in heavily. Kind of a "Moneyball" approach to pitching.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

If starting pitchers under 6'2" are being undervalued... then perhaps that is one area the Crew should look into investing in heavily. Kind of a "Moneyball" approach to pitching.

 

I might be missing a joke here, but that's exactly what they've been doing (as far as drafting) for the past 3-5 seasons.

 

 

EDIT: I am dumb & can't reading the comprehensions.

[brewmann04]

Nelson And Jungman and Bradley are big boys