Tyler Thornburg

[logan82]

Pitchers have little control over wins. With relievers it is more luck than anything. The best pitcher the Brewers have had recently only won 3 more games than he lost with the team. Thornburg has done well but we would probably be just as well off with someone like Wooten pitching in those spots.

[homer]

 

Flipping Estrada and Thornburg doesn't make the Brewers less competitive in the short term and gives the Brewers insight into their future plans, it's a win/win if Tyler can pitch around 4 ERA, which he is perfectly capable of doing. Of course he could be worse that, and if he's significantly worse and starts hurting the team, then you just reverse the roles and move on, but we won't really know unless they let him try. Way too often there is an assumption that the established player will significantly out-perform the prospect, and I just don't think that the marginal difference even when that statement is true is the tragedy people have made it out to be.

.

 

I don't think you're giving Estrada enough credit. He is a darn good pitcher. He K's almost a batter per inning and walks only 2 or 3 per 9 innings. He's been lights out since August of last year and a team that is in contention would start him over Thornburg no question. It's a nice problem to have and Tyler in the pen is nice insurance when an injury occurs.

[jjfanec]

I don't think it's fair to criticize Doug for not making certain trades when we don't know what was at the other end. You can say he has a tendency to stick with veterans, but at the same time the market has shifted from where it was ten years ago. Teams aren't giving up impact prospects for marginal vets or one year rentals like they used to. It's gotten to the point where I think some teams are getting great deals selling their prospects. I think Dexter Fowler, Craig Gentry and Doug Fister were all steals this off season. Also if Estrada is going to be on the block, which I think is likely, then bumping him from the rotation just kills his value.

 

I completely agree and think this is something people do way too often. Sometimes people take an internet rumor like the one a while back with a Matt Cain for so and so Brewer swap and act like it was definitely on the table. We never know those things. Also on the trades we could have made idea maybe other teams scouts saw the flaws in players like Escobar, Lawrie, LaPorta, etc and thus we couldn't get the value some here thought we should.

 

The Melvin bashing gets a little much for me and is part of the reason I dont post here as much as I used to do. I am not a huge Melvin fan but he is the same guy who smartly extended Lucroy to a very team friendly deal, made the Segura trade, made the Gomez trade, traded Aoki so Davis had a spot in the lineup, etc. The JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez trade is looking like one of the most lopsided trades we have made. Gomez is an All-Star and Minnesota moved Hardy for bad relief pitchers.

 

Also Estrada is really underrated by some. The last three years he has 3.8 or so ERA with a WHIP around 1.14 and 8.7 K/9. What is not to like for a number 5 starter making 3.3 million. Thornburg is being treated very similar to Cardinal pitchers, and guys like Johan Santana when he was coming up. Sometimes I feel like people think relievers are not important and you can just throw anyone out there to pitch an inning or two. Thornburg is playing a very important role on this team right now

[Bombers]

 

I don't think you're giving Estrada enough credit. He is a darn good pitcher. He K's almost a batter per inning and walks only 2 or 3 per 9 innings. He's been lights out since August of last year and a team that is in contention would start him over Thornburg no question. It's a nice problem to have and Tyler in the pen is nice insurance when an injury occurs.

I agree - Estrada is awesome and flying under the radar. I think where we have them is just fine.

[Nottso]

I really like Estrada. A few years ago, when it came down to a choice between Estrada and Narveson for the 5th spot in the rotation I felt that we should have gone with Marco right away. Now to get back on topic...

 

I can't see how anyone would think that Thornburg could be more valuable as a reliever, or even as a closer, than he would be as a starter. Who wouldn't trade a good reliever or a good closer for a good starter? A good starter is much more difficult to come by.

[jjfanec]

I can't see how anyone would think that Thornburg could be more valuable as a reliever, or even as a closer, than he would be as a starter. Who wouldn't trade a good reliever or a good closer for a good starter? A good starter is much more difficult to come by.

 

The question for me is is he better than Estrada. His peripherals are pretty similar although Estrada actually struck out more guys per 9 when Thornburg started last year. If they are similar pitchers right now and Thornburg is better out of the bullpen then leave him there. He should be next in light to start for the team and I would love for them to look at moving Estrada in the off-season to make room for Thornburg. It isnt like Tyler is wasting away at the end of the bench. He is playing an important role but you are right it isnt as important as being a starter

[Nottso]

 

I would love for them to look at moving Estrada in the off-season to make room for Thornburg.

 

I don't know how I'd feel about that and not just because I like Estrada, which I admittedly do. Pitching, especially starting pitching, has been such a sore spot for so long that I'd be almost afraid to deal any capable starter. I'm pretty sure that too many capable starters would be a good problem to have, although I'm not 100% sure about that, because I can't remember the last time we were faced with such a dilemma... if ever.

[jjfanec]

 

I would love for them to look at moving Estrada in the off-season to make room for Thornburg.

 

I don't know how I'd feel about that and not just because I like Estrada, which I admittedly do. Pitching, especially starting pitching, has been such a sore spot for so long that I'd be almost afraid to deal any capable starter. I'm pretty sure that too many capable starters would be a good problem to have, although I'm not 100% sure about that, because I can't remember the last time we were faced with such a dilemma... if ever.

 

If Jimmy Nelson has a solid year in AAA I would be inclined to move Estrada for a 1B or 3B prospect. A capable starter is also worth something on the trade market right? Nelson, Pena, Fiers, Burgos could all help make Estrada "expendable." Wooten could help replace Thornburg

[chickinbrickin]

Until Estrada does something to deserve being pulled from the rotation you leave this thing as is for now. Thornburg is having early success this year in the pen. That doesn't mean he needs to be in the rotation. He has upside, but a lot of his success right now is due to the fact he doesn't have to hold back. He can unleash that 95-98mph fastball all he wants in relief, which makes his off speed stuff much better.

 

Let him learn in the pen and be successful. The Cards have been doing this for years and it works. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, and the list goes on.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Until Estrada does something to deserve being pulled from the rotation you leave this thing as is for now. Thornburg is having early success this year in the pen. That doesn't mean he needs to be in the rotation. He has upside, but a lot of his success right now is due to the fact he doesn't have to hold back. He can unleash that 95-98mph fastball all he wants in relief, which makes his off speed stuff much better.

 

Let him learn in the pen and be successful. The Cards have been doing this for years and it works. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, and the list goes on.

 

No matter how good Estrada is doing it could make him expendable. I would do a packaged deal at mid-season and trade Estrada, Nelson, and HellWeg for a big time 3B man that is controlled for at least 3 years or longer. Estrada is about to get very expensive. Then I'd just move Thornburg into the rotation. In the off-season I'd trade Ramirez and a prospect for a top SP prospect for depth. Ramirez if Healthy will have a great year this year and will be worth a lot in the next off-season. Roache will fill 1B the year after and we will have zero holes to fill. Just re-sign Gallardo. He will sign a team friendly deal I'd bet. The way Lohse is pitching and the type of pitcher he is we could extend him 2 more years with an option and he will pitch just fine.

 

We need a good 3B man, and have to think about replacing Ramirez.

[homer]

Until Estrada does something to deserve being pulled from the rotation you leave this thing as is for now. Thornburg is having early success this year in the pen. That doesn't mean he needs to be in the rotation. He has upside, but a lot of his success right now is due to the fact he doesn't have to hold back. He can unleash that 95-98mph fastball all he wants in relief, which makes his off speed stuff much better.

 

Let him learn in the pen and be successful. The Cards have been doing this for years and it works. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, and the list goes on.

 

No matter how good Estrada is doing it could make him expendable. I would do a packaged deal at mid-season and trade Estrada, Nelson, and HellWeg for a big time 3B man that is controlled for at least 3 years or longer. Estrada is about to get very expensive. Then I'd just move Thornburg into the rotation. In the off-season I'd trade Ramirez and a prospect for a top SP prospect for depth. Ramirez if Healthy will have a great year this year and will be worth a lot in the next off-season. Roache will fill 1B the year after and we will have zero holes to fill. Just re-sign Gallardo. He will sign a team friendly deal I'd bet. The way Lohse is pitching and the type of pitcher he is we could extend him 2 more years with an option and he will pitch just fine.

 

We need a good 3B man, and have to think about replacing Ramirez.

 

Yeah, as much as I admire Estrada he is past 30 years old and cheap. Trading him this off season makes perfect sense to me.

[BCZF]

Tyler Thornburg = Love the name. "YOU CANT WALK OUT ON ME! I'M TYLER THORNBURG!"

[paul253]

This can be our Closer of 2015.

 

Closers are a dime a dozen. I don't like the idea of grooming someone to be a closer unless its a) someone who has always been a reliever or b) someone who has proven they can't succeed as a starter. Thornburg doesn't fit either of those. I think Johnny Hellweg is the guy who should be in the bullpen.

 

I have no problem with Thornburg not being in the rotation right now because Estrada has earned the opportunity. I do think Thornburg should be starting in Nashville though. In my opinion Burgos and Fiers have no future as MLB starters. Thornburg does. He excelled last year as a starter and should have been given a fair chance to win a spot this year. But since he wasn't the least you could go is let him be the #6 starter, the first guy to get the call when a starter inevitably goes down.

 

As far as the future goes. All 5 starters are locked up through at least next year. Given that we have Thornburg and Nelson basically ready now, and a plethora of guys who could be ready soon, I think they'll have to move a pitcher either at the deadline this year or in the offseason if they are in the middle of a playoff run this year. I don't know what type of prospect you could get for an Estrada or a Lohse but given how weak our system is I'd settle for just about anything. Perhaps we could even get one of those "competitive balance" picks included in a trade. A pick somewhere in the 40's could be fairly valuable.

[TheCrew07]

I don't think you're giving Estrada enough credit. He is a darn good pitcher. He K's almost a batter per inning and walks only 2 or 3 per 9 innings.

 

I'm well aware of exactly what Estrada is, he's basically a less healthy Marcum. He's got an average FB, good secondary stuff, relies on command, and when he leaves the ball up he gets hit hard. He's also 30 and isn't able to stay healthy. It's not what Estrada is that makes him replaceable, it's what he isn't, which is someone who's young, healthy, and you can count on for 25 starts a year.

 

[pre]Year Age ERA G GS IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

2011 27 4.08 43 7 92.2 97 1.209 8.1 1.1 2.8 8.5 3.03

2012 28 3.64 29 23 138.1 113 1.142 8.4 1.2 1.9 9.3 4.93

2013 29 3.87 21 21 128.0 101 1.078 7.7 1.3 2.0 8.3 4.07

2014 30 2.31 2 2 11.2 163 1.200 6.9 1.5 3.9 9.3 2.40[/pre]

 

He's an upper 3 ERA pitcher, I said that was "good", if you want to use "darn good" that's fine, but if Thornburg is a 4.0 ERA pitcher, what exactly are we losing? Even at Estrada's career best 3.6 is .4 runs per every 5th start going to be the difference in the season? The perceived drop off from Estrada to Thornburg is basically negligible if Thornburg can pitch as #3 for the season, it's been overstated.

 

As for breaking in starters as relievers, that's fine if you're trying to limit innings or bringing up a guy in September to get his feet wet, but to go back to what Baltimore did in an entirely different era of baseball isn't an apt comparison on any level. The economics of the game have changed way too much. If any pitcher is *good* and healthy for Milwaukee, he'll price himself out of the Brewers reach when he hits FA so we have to maximize his value while we have him. In Thornburg's case he was already up last season and got his feet wet, his clock is ticking and if he ultimately ends up being a starter wasting a year of his service time on 80 innings that we have other options for is roster mismanagement.

 

People want to frame these arguments around "being competitive", well ideally the Brewers are always competitive and will always have to find a way to maximize the value of each player. I don't believe in "we can't make a move because we're going for it" or "we're all in" or whatever other cliche about winning a poster would want to use. If you want to be competitive over the long term the idea has to be to maximize the return on potential impact players which you are able to develop. All around baseball starters are converted into closers by short sighted teams like the Reds and Chapman or the Red Sox and Papelbon on a regular basis, as if the closer has some mystical value beyond the 60 innings they pitch in a year. I'd much rather go the Gagne route, progress a pitcher as far as you can as a starter and if he proves he's not a good fit for the rotation then he can hopefully become a dominant reliever.

 

Of course closers like being closers because they get paid like starting pitchers to pitch only in a completely arbitrary set of circumstances 1 inning at a time and get to relish in all the fan fare that comes with it. That's a pretty darn good life, I've had the opportunity to sit and talk with a former MLB closer from the modern era and hear about it first hand, but that's not the best case scenario from the team's perspective.

 

As a general rule I'm never in favor of holding any player back for someone who has no long term future with the team. I made the argument with Hardy, I'm making the argument now in this thread, I'm sure I'll make the argument in the future. Hardy was my favorite Brewer of all time, he's the only Brewer I own any memorabilia of, this isn't a sentimental over attachment to prospects or players on the MLB roster, I view it as a necessity to keep the team relevant over the long term. I would trade Estrada for top 20 prospect right now if I could, but I know the team won't do that, which is why I suggest swapping the 2 pitchers to see if Thornburg is a legit starting pitcher or not.

 

Again I understand this isn't how MLB baseball teams generally operate, nor have the Brewers operated in the manner I'm suggesting in the past. However I don't think it's in anyone's best interests to run Thornburg out there as a reliever for 2 years simply because there are established pitchers in front of him. It would be one thing if we were talking about him sitting behind another mid 20s player who should have long-term future with the team, if we were in the same situation as TB I'd have no problem with Thornburg in the pen. However we aren't, 3 of our starters are 30 years old or older, and 3 of them are only under team control this year and next. He could potentially end up in the rotation if/when someone goes on the DL, but 2-3 starts here and there doesn't really excite me either, we've already seen what he can do in a small sample starting.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm well aware of exactly what Estrada is, he's basically a less healthy Marcum.

 

Good post Crew, but is this possible? The only Brewers that I know of less healthy than Marcum would be Higuera and Vuckovich and they are long retired.

 

Personally, I think if Estrada has a good year, maybe you can flip him in the off season to create a spot for Thornburg. Heck, maybe the Jays would give us Lawrie back for him the way he's been playing.

[DoubleSwitch]

I would trade Estrada for top 20 prospect right now if I could

 

You assume this could be done when it absolutely couldn't.

 

If I could flip Estrada for an Archie Bradley/Taijuan Walker/Dylan Bundy type player I would do it in a heartbeat. The problem is nobody would ever make that deal with you.

[SoupTown]

Since Estrada will not pitch all year - having half the year off for the DL - there is no problem.

[danzig6767]

I would trade Estrada for top 20 prospect right now if I could

 

You assume this could be done when it absolutely couldn't.

 

If I could flip Estrada for an Archie Bradley/Taijuan Walker/Dylan Bundy type player I would do it in a heartbeat. The problem is nobody would ever make that deal with you.

 

No kidding. Ask another GM for a top 20 prospect for Estrada and you'd hear a dial tone before the next time you blinked your eyes.

[homer]

I don't think you're giving Estrada enough credit. He is a darn good pitcher. He K's almost a batter per inning and walks only 2 or 3 per 9 innings.

 

 

He's an upper 3 ERA pitcher, I said that was "good", if you want to use "darn good" that's fine, but if Thornburg is a 4.0 ERA pitcher, what exactly are we losing?

 

.2 runs per game....so basically a run every 6 starts or so. If the Brewers were projected to lose 90 games I might be inclined to agree with you, but as it stands they have the best record in baseball and their pitching has been outstanding. Having Thornburg in the pen isn't a tragedy and over the course of the season probably makes the starting rotation better.

[logan82]

So about 5 runs or half a win difference over the whole year.

[homer]

So about 5 runs or half a win difference over the whole year.

 

I didn't want to get into it but there are a ton of assumptions in those ERA numbers. Frankly, I think a 4.00 ERA for Thornburg for a whole season is pretty optimistic whereas a 3.80 ERA for Estrada is probably what you can expect.

 

The point being, Estrada will most likely outperform Thornburg over the course of a season. A team in contention puts the better pitcher out there. Or at the very least, it's a defendable decision.

[adambr2]

So about 5 runs or half a win difference over the whole year.

 

I didn't want to get into it but there are a ton of assumptions in those ERA numbers. Frankly, I think a 4.00 ERA for Thornburg for a whole season is pretty optimistic whereas a 3.80 ERA for Estrada is probably what you can expect.

 

The point being, Estrada will most likely outperform Thornburg over the course of a season. A team in contention puts the better pitcher out there. Or at the very least, it's a defendable decision.

 

Trouble is that you're not going to get more 170 IP if you're lucky out of either.

 

Thornburg through 140 IP over AAA and MLB last year, and Estrada has been around the same. Even if he stays healthy, it wouldn't be wise to push him past 170.

[chickinbrickin]

Until Estrada does something to deserve being pulled from the rotation you leave this thing as is for now. Thornburg is having early success this year in the pen. That doesn't mean he needs to be in the rotation. He has upside, but a lot of his success right now is due to the fact he doesn't have to hold back. He can unleash that 95-98mph fastball all he wants in relief, which makes his off speed stuff much better.

 

Let him learn in the pen and be successful. The Cards have been doing this for years and it works. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, and the list goes on.

 

No matter how good Estrada is doing it could make him expendable. I would do a packaged deal at mid-season and trade Estrada, Nelson, and HellWeg for a big time 3B man that is controlled for at least 3 years or longer. Estrada is about to get very expensive. Then I'd just move Thornburg into the rotation. In the off-season I'd trade Ramirez and a prospect for a top SP prospect for depth. Ramirez if Healthy will have a great year this year and will be worth a lot in the next off-season. Roache will fill 1B the year after and we will have zero holes to fill. Just re-sign Gallardo. He will sign a team friendly deal I'd bet. The way Lohse is pitching and the type of pitcher he is we could extend him 2 more years with an option and he will pitch just fine.

 

We need a good 3B man, and have to think about replacing Ramirez.

 

Not sure what you consider a big time 3B, but Estrada, Nelson, and Hellweg will not return anything "big-time." Let alone big time under team control for 3 years.

 

I am with you though. We need to move him at some point and if he is doing well mid-season would be a good time to do that. I have no faith in Melvin to pull the trigger. Brewers typically hold players too long. See Hart and Casey Mcgehee.

 

I also think you are assuming a lot to think ARam will return a top SP prospect, and assuming even more that Roache will progress enough to contribute in 2015. I sure hope he does, but his struggles with breaking pitches will only be amplified as he faces better pitching.

[HiAndTight]

I wanted him in the rotation, and thought he was good enough that we didn't need to spend on Garza, so I've been fairly high on him. However, once Garza was signed, I wanted Thornburg starting in AAA for two reasons:

 

1) To keep him stretched out as a starter. We will need more than five starting pitchers this year, so I wanted Thronburg to be able to step in when someone goes down. As it now stands, he will probably still get the call, but that will mean that he will be unavailable from the pen prior to the start (possibly keeping the pen short-handed) and he will only go 2-3 innings in his start, draining the pen when he starts. He won't be fully stretched out for a few starts, and that will be hard on the bullpen.

 

2) I figured with the number of lefties in the pen, one (Wang) who will never be used, Thronburg would be overused. Before the season, I guessed that if he stayed in the pen all season he would get around 81 appearances, some for multiple innings. That could be really tough on a promising young arm. If he continues to pitch well, and if the Brewers keep winning, I have little doubt that Roenicke will put the Brewers' winning in 2014 over Thornburg's future health, and will put him out there every chance he gets.

I'd agree if he hadn't already proven himself at AAA & (in a small sample that also passed the eye test) MLB. He needs to be facing MLB hitters, and is a massive help to the MLB club prior to the time he'll inevitably be needed as a SP. For me, all that greatly outweighs the baggage of him not being stretched out right away. If he's hurting the team indirectly later on by not being stretched out, he'll surely have offset that & more by pitching effectively from the 'pen.

 

 

I would STILL agree with that if his changeup hadn't looked so good this year. At his point, what is going to help Thornburg out more? Working on his pitches? He seems to be throwing them seamlessly in all counts in high leverage situations late in the game, and his change has been so nasty that however he improved it, I don't see much need in improving it more.

 

I'm not a pitching coach or a scout, but the only reason at this point from a developmental standpoint to keep him in the minors would be to keep him stretched out in my opinion.

[HiAndTight]

I'm well aware of exactly what Estrada is, he's basically a less healthy Marcum.

 

Good post Crew, but is this possible? The only Brewers that I know of less healthy than Marcum would be Higuera and Vuckovich and they are long retired.

 

Personally, I think if Estrada has a good year, maybe you can flip him in the off season to create a spot for Thornburg. Heck, maybe the Jays would give us Lawrie back for him the way he's been playing.

 

 

YES!! Yes it is possible. Marcum had 2 years in which he threw 200 innings(195.1, 200.2) as well as a couple years where he threw more than 150 innings and a 124 inning year with the Brewers.

 

Estrada has thrown 138 and 128 innings in his two best seasons.

 

I just do not get the love for Estrada. I understand the respect and that he's pitched well when he has been healthy, but he's held to SUCH a high standard by some on here that...I just think they're unreasonable. Even some suggestions we could get a top 20 prospect for him.

 

If you were the Brewers, would you give up any of your better prospect, much less a Thornburg(who's nowhere near a top 20) for a 30 year old pitcher who has proven year after year he can't make 30 starts or throw even 175 innings?