Tyler Thornburg

[JohnBriggs12]

Having "starters in waiting" pitching out of the pen is new to the Brewers but it's not new elsewhere. Chris Sale and Joe Kelly are prime examples.

 

I don't buy the he's "too valuable" out of the pen. Thornburg was arguably their best starter the last 6 weeks last year. If a starter goes down, I'd much rather use Thornburg over anyone currently at AAA, who while have promise would all be major question marks in a major league rotation. They have solid bullpen arms down there that could take up the relief slack or if not, it's a lot easier adding a pen arm than it is finding a reliable starter.

[logan82]

I originally wanted Thornburg in AAA starting. I am kind of split on the idea right now. It shouldn't be to hard to get him stretched out if we need him as a starter. It should only take a couple starts. His day might not line up with whomever got hurt so he might make at least one short start anyway.

 

On the other hand I would like him to continue starting because he could be throwing more pitches and work on stuff. More importantly he wouldn't be burning service time.

[brewmann04]

he pitched in all 3 games vs Philly but i still think he is our 6th Starter,But Did RR hint he might have Closer Stuff?

[jjfanec]

I am glad Thornburg is on the team in the bullpen right now because he is helping the team. He is not wasting service time. He is helping the team win games. At the same time if a starter struggles or gets hurt he is the guy I want making starts.

[FVBrewerFan]

he pitched in all 3 games vs Philly but i still think he is our 6th Starter,But Did RR hint he might have Closer Stuff?

 

A big fastball and a nice change-up, he definitely has closer stuff. Maybe he eases into that role this year already, or next. He is still young, and can still be a part of the rotation at some point between now and 2016.

[TheCrew07]

Price closed for the Rays during the playoffs in 2008 after being the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft... and the Rays bringing him up for the playoffs didn't negatively affect his service time.

 

I don't expect everyone to agree with my point of view, but I would like everyone to at least acknowledge that there are larger issues in play here than "he's pitching well out of the pen let's leave him there".

 

I get that for many posters they are going to try simplify all of this down to 1 issue, how do I get the best possible team in 2014? I honestly don't think it's that simple, there are literally dozens of different angles to look at from any number of situations. For example one of the problems with pitching Thornburg out of the pen for 2 years is that when you need him for the rotation you aren't really sure what you have... if he turns out to be a good starter you're already up against arbitration and he becomes much more expensive to extend (if he's willing). You could extend him now I suppose, but even though I've been on the Thornburg bandwagon for a long time, since I saw the video of him flipping over a fence to catch a ball in RF, I'm not willing to say what kind of starter he'll ultimately end up being. So what exactly is his value, what kind of contract are looking at, and how do you try to sell it to him? As a reliever? As a starter? If you give him a Gallardo deal you'd better be damn sure he's a #2, but if he's pitching out of the pen how do you really know?

 

That's just one issue with multiple variables, there are also developmental and service time issues to consider. I can certainly understand and sympathize with the "keep it simple" perspective however roster construction and organization building are anything but. There are multiple layers and a much wider view that needs to be considered than "is a player flourishing in his current role?", the most basic of those would be is his current role his best possible role? Now multiply all those factors across not just Thornburg, but every player on the roster and the situation gets incredibly more grey. Some positions are going to be black and white, they will be simple like Gomez in CF, others not so much, but as a whole it's a very complex and fluid situation. Unfortunately given the financial constraints that come with being in the league's smallest market roster management for the Brewers is never going to be black and white.

 

I don't know that it really can be for any team as much they may try to make it so, but definitely not here in Milwaukee where tough decisions need to be made about who to keep, who to bring in, and who to let walk every single year.

[monty57]

They have been so good in the bullpen you have to leave them there.

 

May I ask why? Starters are more valuable than relievers, wouldn't we want our best pitchers pitching as many innings as possible?

 

Based on WAR, the most valuable relievers last year (Uehara @ 3.6 and Kimbrel @ 3.3) were the #30 and #37 highest WAR among pitchers, making them about as valuable as guys like Shelby Miller and Kyle Lohse. That's the "aces" of relievers. Most relievers, even good ones, sit in the 0.5 to 1.5 WAR range. Henderson and Balfour were 1.4 WAR with their good seasons last year, putting them around as valuable as a Carlos Villenueva or Wade Miley. So, by that metric, if he is lights-out all season in the bullpen, he could be about as valuable as if he were to be the #5 starter with a 4-ish ERA.

 

But, I think we need to look at things on relative terms. If he weren't on the MLB roster, then someone else would be, and that someone would probably be Wooten, who in 27 appearances last year had a 3.90 ERA with around a 2:1 K:BB ratio. Sure, Thornburg is pitching well right now and it's easy to get caught up in the belief that he's bulletproof, but like most players, he'll have some ups-and-downs. I'd guess that over the course of a season, Thornburg and Wooten would be pretty equal value-wise out of the pen. Since we have a good alternative sitting in AAA, and Thornburg would have to be dominant out of the pen to be as valuable as he'd be simply being okay in the rotation, why not go with Wooten and keep Thornburg at AAA, where he remains stretched out and in the routine of starting, doesn't burn service time, and isn't at risk of being pitched so much his arm falls off?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Thornburg's 25 - I'm not concerned about him burning through service time, since this is likely at the start of his prime performance years. If he's good enough to help the major league ballclub, this is his time to establish himself in the big leagues. Guys his size who pitch like he does are highly unlikely to pitch effectively beyond their early-mid 30's anyway, so why bother having him burn innings off his arm in the minors when he can be a factor in the majors?

 

Now I don't want RR to continue running him out there 3 out of every 4 ballgames and burning Thornburg out from overuse, but I do want to see him stay in Milwaukee if he keeps performing well.

[fondybrewfan]

All I meant is Thornburg has been so great out of the pen so far why mess when something is working. It would be different if we didn't have anyone in AAA to bring in; but we certainly have guys hat could easily step into t a 5th starter role if need be with Nelson probably at the top of the list.

 

Obviously in 2015 you re-evaluate everything but for 2014 I absolutely would just leave him in the pen and work the important 8th and 9th innings.

[logan82]

Thornburg's 25 - I'm not concerned about him burning through service time, since this is likely at the start of his prime performance years. If he's good enough to help the major league ballclub, this is his time to establish himself in the big leagues. Guys his size who pitch like he does are highly unlikely to pitch effectively beyond their early-mid 30's anyway, so why bother having him burn innings off his arm in the minors when he can be a factor in the majors?

Because Thornburg's year of service time as a starter in his early thirties will probably have more value than he will bring out of the pen this year.

[FVBrewerFan]

By the way, nothing says they can't trade Lohse after this season if they want to add Thornburg or Nelson to the rotation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Because Thornburg's year of service time as a starter in his early thirties will probably have more value than he will bring out of the pen this year

 

So instead of keeping him on the big league roster that's frankly built to try and win now when he's shown the ability to contribute as both a starter and reliever at that level, you'd rather send him to AAA this season for the possible benefit of an early 30's season as a starter under team control? That early 30's season is about 6 seasons-worth of time where the risk of potential career-impacting injury to a pitcher with a small build and big arm can occur. I get it if this team was at a different point in rebuilding, but at some point you need to give MLB roster spots to guys who have earned them. After Thornburg's solid stint in the majors late last summer, IMO it would've sent a bad message to the rest of the young arms already fighting for innings amongst themselves at AA and AAA currently.

 

Thornburg's in a late inning relief role right now, but that's not saying he won't be starting in Milwaukee at some point this season. A guy like Wooten could probably do just fine in a relief role, but he isn't the type of pitcher who should block a more talented arm from a spot on the big league roster when they're ready to contribute.

 

On the other hand, for people on the board who have been skeptical of Thornburg's MLB potential long term, doesn't his potential trade value look pretty darn good right now? For proponents of trying to sell high on guys with hard to determine ceilings, I bet Tyler could land a pretty solid corner IF prospect if Melvin wanted to listen to offers right now.

[danzig6767]

Thornburg's 25 - I'm not concerned about him burning through service time, since this is likely at the start of his prime performance years. If he's good enough to help the major league ballclub, this is his time to establish himself in the big leagues. Guys his size who pitch like he does are highly unlikely to pitch effectively beyond their early-mid 30's anyway, so why bother having him burn innings off his arm in the minors when he can be a factor in the majors?

Because Thornburg's year of service time as a starter in his early thirties will probably have more value than he will bring out of the pen this year.

I get the desire to have him in the minors as a starter, but one thing to also consider is his state of mind. If my memory is correct, Thornburg stated just how devastated he felt last year when he didn't make the big league team and maybe that contributed to his struggles in AAA?

 

Had he been sent down to AAA again after pitching so well in the bigs last year, he may have taken it really hard and in turn caused him to struggle again if he strongly felt that he deserved to be with the big league club. Not all athletes are wired the same way and can handle the demotion if they feel they belong in the majors.

[TheCrew07]

I would agree that the team could move Gallardo, Estrada, or Lohse to make room for Nelson and Thornburg, but outside of moving Overbay for Fielder when has that really ever been done by DM and MA? The Brewers typically only sell when they absolutely have to like they did with Greinke. They will pickup Gallardo's option year for 2015, Estrada and Lohse aren't FAs until 2016.

 

I've said it before the simple solution here should be to flip the roles of Thornburg and Estrada. Marco shouldn't have a future with the Brewers, he'll be a FA for his 32 year old season, he has a very average FB, and he's had a history of health issues. He's the most replaceable part the Brewers have. That doesn't take anything away from what he does on the mound, he's a good pitcher, but the reality is that there is no way the Brewers should extend him, so he shouldn't be part of the Brewers' future. Thornburg could be a key part of the future, we don't know yet, but then again you can't really wait to find out either as I pointed out in my earlier post.

 

If Thornburg doesn't work out as a starter you can always flip them back around and continue to move forward. The Brewers don't always have to be in a desperate situation where they don't have another option but to try a guy, this is a perfect opportunity with a strong offense and multiple fall back options to let both Peralta and Thornburg go. It's a rational and logical move that works in both the short and the long term. I completely understand that something like this runs contrary to what most teams and the Brewers have historically done, but again I don't believe that baseball really excels at developing their talent either. They play a ton of games with very little practice time and do things because that's the way they've always been done.

 

Flipping Estrada and Thornburg doesn't make the Brewers less competitive in the short term and gives the Brewers insight into their future plans, it's a win/win if Tyler can pitch around 4 ERA, which he is perfectly capable of doing. Of course he could be worse that, and if he's significantly worse and starts hurting the team, then you just reverse the roles and move on, but we won't really know unless they let him try. Way too often there is an assumption that the established player will significantly out-perform the prospect, and I just don't think that the marginal difference even when that statement is true is the tragedy people have made it out to be.

 

Also, the Brewers literally have a ton of legitimate relief prospects, some with as big of arms as Tyler, wasting away in AA and A+ again because Melvin signed a plethora of 28+ year olds for Nashville's(AAA) bullpen. This created a tremendous logjam all the way down the chain. It makes no sense for any of those prospects to be repeating levels they already dominated. It was hypothesized that the Brewers went all veteran at AAA and AA simply to try and retain the affiliations with winning ball clubs because both Nashville and Huntsville(Biloxi next year) are finally getting modern state of the art stadiums and facilities. Only the prospects would likely out pitch these older veteran guys regardless, and the prospects will also make a positive impact in Milwaukee down the road unlike the "never was" currently eating up roster space in AAA. This notion that the Brewers management favors veterans wasn't pulled out of thin air, it wasn't made up on a whim, it's been repeatedly demonstrated through every level of the organization.

 

edit. I meant to add that neither Thornburg or Nelson is a super prospect like Fielder was, where there was an obvious move that needed to be made, which I don't think that's a likely scenario.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers typically only sell when they absolutely have to like they did with Greinke.

 

They did deal Hardy for a young but still developing Gomez before they had to, but I guess Escobar was ready in their minds to man short until he went in the package to KC for Yuni B...I mean Greinke! Greinke was then dealt for Segura, who isn't the defender Escobar is but is likely to be a more complete hitter.

 

I agree on the Estrada thoughts - when healthy he's been good, and is another one of Melvin's solid acquisitions made with little fanfare. Estrada's problems are staying healthy and not having stuff that will age well. If there's a starter I'd love to see traded this season for anything of value, it's Estrada. I don't want to see him getting an extension to stay in Milwaukee.

 

I also see the logjam between AA and AAA, particularly in the bullpens, as an issue that's going to lead to the Brewers losing control of some arms that have big league potential. Keeping marginal prospects in the minors to delay their arby clocks and allow them to develop as pitchers makes sense on occasion, but you shouldn't do that with all of them and then also sign a pile of veteran AAAA guys to take innings away. The 40 man roster can only keep so many players from being pilfered by other organizations via rule V or minor league free agency, particularly with blocked relief prospects.

[gregmag]

I don't expect everyone to agree with my point of view, but I would like everyone to at least acknowledge that there are larger issues in play here than "he's pitching well out of the pen let's leave him there".

 

Quite a few people above have made points that are at least as nuanced and sophisticated as your very thoughtful analysis. Cheer up; you aren't alone up there.

 

IMHO, as Briggs has noted a couple of times, quite a few effective starters have cut their MLB teeth in long relief. It's the old Earl Weaver method. I think the Brewers have made a very defensible decision about their starters this year. I probably would have gone with Nelson or Thornburg in the rotation and passed on Garza. OTOH, the Brewers' approach gives you Nelson as your #6 starter and potentially Thornburg (probably after a stretching-out stint in AAA) as your #7 starter. If this team is going to have any hope of a playoff run, which right now sounds substantially less insane to me than it did two months ago, then that pitching depth is going to be a crucial comparative advantage (in part because they have very little depth among nonpitchers).

 

I agree that we need to think about a bunch of dichotomies: this year and the future, the team and the player, money and on-field value, development and immediate performance, the rotation and the pen. There are a lot of moving parts. To me, right now, whether through smart thinking or dumb luck, the Brewers

appear to have found an approach with Thornburg that navigates all those dichotomies reasonably, if not perfectly.

[Oxy]

Only the prospects would likely out pitch these older veteran guys regardless, and the prospects will also make a positive impact in Milwaukee down the road unlike the "never was" currently eating up roster space in AAA. This notion that the Brewers management favors veterans wasn't pulled out of thin air, it wasn't made up on a whim, it's been repeatedly demonstrated through every level of the organization..

 

Perhaps there are maturity/character issues with the young guys that management isn't comfortable with, so they sign older veterans who know how to be professionals in order to mentor some of the younger guys into adulthood. I don't KNOW any of this, but it would be consistent with the character of our manager, anyway.

 

You might not think this is valid, but I'd be okay with it if this is the case.

[reillymcshane]

With Estrada, Lohse and Gallardo set for free agency after 2015 (assuming we pick up Yo's 2015 option), it would really be to our advantage to move Thornburg into the rotation next year.

 

Circumstances might force this to happen (injury, ineffectiveness, etc.). But if the team thinks Thornburg's future is in the rotation, then they should get him in there in 2014.

[adambr2]

I would agree that the team could move Gallardo, Estrada, or Lohse to make room for Nelson and Thornburg, but outside of moving Overbay for Fielder when has that really ever been done by DM and MA? The Brewers typically only sell when they absolutely have to like they did with Greinke. They will pickup Gallardo's option year for 2015, Estrada and Lohse aren't FAs until 2016.

 

I've said it before the simple solution here should be to flip the roles of Thornburg and Estrada. Marco shouldn't have a future with the Brewers, he'll be a FA for his 32 year old season, he has a very average FB, and he's had a history of health issues. He's the most replaceable part the Brewers have. That doesn't take anything away from what he does on the mound, he's a good pitcher, but the reality is that their is no way the Brewers should extend him, so he shouldn't be part of the Brewers' future. Thornburg could be a key part of the future, we don't know yet, but then again you can't really wait to find out either as I pointed out in my earlier post.

 

If Thornburg doesn't work out as a starter you can always flip them back around and continue to move forward. The Brewers don't always have to be in a desperate situation where they don't have another option but to try a guy, this is a perfect opportunity with a strong offense and multiple fall back options to let both Peralta and Thornburg go. It's a rational and logical move that works in both the short and the long term. I completely understand that something like this runs contrary to what most teams and the Brewers have historically done, but again I don't believe that baseball really excels at developing their talent either. They play a ton of games with very little practice time and do things because that's the way they've always been done.

 

Flipping Estrada and Thornburg doesn't make the Brewers less competitive in the short term and gives the Brewers insight into their future plans, it's a win/win if Tyler can pitch around 4 ERA, which he is perfectly capable of doing. Of course he could be worse that, and if he's significantly worse and starts hurting the team, then you just reverse the roles and move on, but we won't really know unless they let him try. Way too often there is an assumption that the established player will significantly out-perform the prospect, and I just don't think that the marginal difference even when that statement is true is the tragedy people have made it out to be.

 

Also, the Brewers literally have a ton of legitimate relief prospects, some with as big of arms as Tyler, wasting away in AA and A+ again because Melvin signed a plethora of 28+ year olds for Nashville's(AAA) bullpen. This created a tremendous logjam all the way down the chain. It makes no sense for any of those prospects to be repeating levels they already dominated. It was hypothesized that the Brewers went all veteran at AAA and AA simply to try and retain the affiliations with winning ball clubs because both Nashville and Huntsville(Biloxi next year) are finally getting modern state of the art stadiums and facilities. Only the prospects would likely out pitch these older veteran guys regardless, and the prospects will also make a positive impact in Milwaukee down the road unlike the "never was" currently eating up roster space in AAA. This notion that the Brewers management favors veterans wasn't pulled out of thin air, it wasn't made up on a whim, it's been repeatedly demonstrated through every level of the organization.

 

edit. I meant to add that neither Thornburg or Nelson is a super prospect like Fielder was, where there was an obvious move that needed to be made, which I don't think that's a likely scenario.

 

One factor I think they might consider is that Estrada has pitched much more successfully out of the rotation than the pen for his career.

 

I get where you're coming from, I really do, because I too think that Thornburg's future for us is and should be in the rotation, not the bullpen.

 

The problem here is that from a public relations standpoint, this is almost an impossible move to make without something provoking it first. If Estrada is struggling, that's enough to make a move. But if it's June 1st and we're in 1st place and Estrada has a 3.50 ERA and is still healthy and Thornburg is still blowing people away in the pen, how do you do it? Regardless of your bigger picture mindset, if the move backfires at all, you're going to be left with a lot of criticisms and questions as to why you took something that was working well and tinkered with it and it ended up blowing up in your face.

 

I'm not overly concerned as it's extremely unlikely that our starting 5 for the season will all sustain the entire year without some time off needed which is going to force their hand sooner or later.

[DoubleSwitch]

I don't think it's fair to criticize Doug for not making certain trades when we don't know what was at the other end. You can say he has a tendency to stick with veterans, but at the same time the market has shifted from where it was ten years ago. Teams aren't giving up impact prospects for marginal vets or one year rentals like they used to. It's gotten to the point where I think some teams are getting great deals selling their prospects. I think Dexter Fowler, Craig Gentry and Doug Fister were all steals this off season. Also if Estrada is going to be on the block, which I think is likely, then bumping him from the rotation just kills his value.

[DHonks]

I love that he's in the bullpen. Many successful pitchers have earned their opportunities in the bullpen. It allows him to learn to attack hitters, manage velocity, finish key innings, and simply to learn the competition. He'll be that much better when he next gets a chance to start

[pitchleague]

I liken the Brewers putting Thornburg in the pen to the Cardinals doing the same with Wainright and, more recently, Rosenthal.

 

Trevor Rosenthal is destined to be a starter but the Cardinals used to him to great success in the pen last year but are still fully committed to using him as a starter by next season. That's their plan, anyway.

[brewcrewdue80]

Who has the better ceiling as a Starter? Jimmy Nelson or Tyler Thornburg? Or is it about equal?

Who has a better ceiling as a Starter? Thornburg or Garza? Thornburg or Estrada?

 

It's known that Thornburg's FB drops what? 3-4MPH as a Starter vs. as a Reliever. Play him out of the bullpen, not just for this year, but beyond. This can be our Closer of 2015. KRod is a 1year deal. Henderson is already losing faith. So honestly, looking in to the future, who steps up in to the closer role? All things being the same, Nelson or Thornburg as Starters, just go with Nelson as the plan for now and Thornburg remains your Bullpen guy for the future.

If Thornburg does go in to the Closer's role next year, his future payday will increase far,far quicker than if he's a Starter, so I don't see why he wouldn't want that if the team is proposing the idea towards him?

We have Pitching depth of #3s, it really shouldn't matter which of the collective of 3s are on the mound so long as they do their job.

Arguing against Estrada being on the mound because his future isn't long in Milwaukee anymore? So let's reduce his value by demoting in the Pen, just to put Thornburg out there who's tossing 3-4MPH slower on his FB? Because Thornburg has a longer future with the team? Where's the logic in that? With that logic, Gallardo should be in the Bullpen for sure since he stands to be gone after this season.

 

The team is set up the way it is set up, for at least this season and maybe next if Gallardo's option is picked up. Why grumble about Thornburg being in the bullpen? vs. Starting every 5 days? If Thornburg truly is good enough to take the mound every 5 days effectively, his time will come a year from, 2 years, 5 years, whatever it may be. He'll force it behind his talent. He can voice his displeasure too at some point and the team can address that when it happens with either making a move to get him what he wants. Or trading him to a team who wants him as a starter.

I'm just glad that one of our own prospects is 1 healthy and 2 performing at a high level. A level that helps this team win(He's 2-0 and I don't know why he doesn't have a save from completing that other game?)

[TheCrew07]

It's known that Thornburg's FB drops what? 3-4MPH as a Starter vs. as a Reliever.

 

No, he's 92-93 as a starter, has been since early in his MiLB career, he's always topped out around 96.

 

BA Draft Report:

He made an early statement with a complete-game, 158-pitch victory against Florida, which won the Southeastern Conference regular-season crown. He also mixed in a loss at Presbyterian, the Big South's ninth-place team. A rough season with the bat and the impending draft prompted the Buccaneers to keep Thornburg's focus on the mound in the season's final month, and he ranked third in the Big South in strikeouts while leading the league with a .213 opponent average. He has top-five-rounds stuff with a low-90s fastball that has topped out at 95 mph. His fastball lacks life and can be pretty flat, which makes his power curveball his best pitch.

Yes 158 pitches is insane, college coaches are horrible.

 

BA 2010:

Thornburg's fastball sits at 93-95 mph and tops out at 98, though it doesn't feature much life. Some scouts think his power curveball is his best pitch. He flashed an improved changeup in pro ball, so he may have the requisite three pitches to remain a starter. He'll need to improve his command, however.

 

BA 2011:

Thornburg has been clocked as high as 98 mph when used in relief, but as a starter he usually pitches at 89-92 mph and peaks at 94. His changeup can be his best pitch at times, confounding hitters because it has good fade and he throws it with deceptive arm speed. His 11-to-5 curveball has the potential to be a solid third offering, though his unorthodox mechanics make it difficult to finish the pitch.

 

BA 2012:

Thornburg primarily works with a 91-94 mph fastball that hits 97 and an overhand curveball that buckles knees when he thows it for strikes. Scouts like his deceptive changeup more than his curve, though the latter was his best pitch in the majors. Thornburg has unorthodox mechanics, pinwheeling the ball to the plate a la Tim Lincecum and prompting some scouts to wonder if he’ll be able to repeat his delivery enough to be a starter in the majors

 

Every report of course mentioned that his demeanor, delivery, stature, and stuff might be better suited to relief. I always lean the other way, make a guy a starter until he proves otherwise, ending up a reliever isn't the preferred outcome for any pitcher, it's the fallback solution.

[SoupTown]

A starter forced into the bullpen and pitching scoreless pairs of innings late in close games is unbelievably valuable. Already Thornburg has two wins against his name. Maybe he can be a twenty game winner in 2014.