My how times have changed - 500HR about to become exclusive club again

[Fear The Chorizo]

Over the past 20 years, MLB saw a huge spike in the # of players who were able to hit or approach hitting 500HR in their careers. No surprise to me how that coincides with the steroid/PED eras, but that's a discussion for another day. I took a look at the list of active HR leaders in MLB today, and was shocked at how few players currently have a legit shot at 500 HR. Even with the parks getting smaller, many of today's best players are nowhere near the 500HR club and even the young stars already find themselves with an uphill battle. I think pitching has gotten better and I also think at least having a drug testing policy has helped to bring career arcs back to historical averages - you don't see players jacking 40+HR per year into their late 30's or even 40's anymore.

 

Here's the current list of who I think still has even the slightest of chances at 500HR:

 

Pujols - 492 (2nd behind ARod on active list, if you count ARod as active) - Pujols will get there this season. 3 seasons ago many assumed 700HR was likely for Pujols, just 2+ seasons into his crazy contract and 600 is starting to look like a pretty big hill to climb for an aging slugger who can't stay healthy anymore.

 

Dunn - 442 (3rd) - Dunn is 34, and IMO is likely to get to 500HR only if an AL team wants to give him a new deal after this season. 2014 is huge for Dunn, because if he has an off year it may be difficult for him to find a team willing to sign a DH who has been making progressively more outs and less contact as he ages.

 

David Ortiz - 432 (6th) - Big Papi IMO is about 50/50 to reach 500, but he's 38 and would likely need 3 solid seasons by his career averages to get there.

 

Miggy Cabrera - 366 (9th) - Cabrera's 31, and barring a pile of injuries costing him multiple seasons in his early 30's, Cabrera will get to 500 - I don't see him reaching 600 though.

 

Fielder - 285 (17th) - Fielder is 30, and playing in Texas should give his power #'s a boost...215 HR is a lot to hit, but if he can transition into a DH role to prolong his career I think he has an outside shot of getting to 500.

 

Braun - 211 (30th) - Braun is also 30, but the PED suspension and thumb injury last year cost his chances dearly to reach 500HR. Unless the thumb injury subsides and he goes on a 2-3 season tear, I don't see it happening. I skipped over a bunch of other active players between Fielder and Braun who IMO are either too old or not the type of hitters who are capable of 250+ more HR in their careers.

 

Mark Reynolds - 203 (32nd) - Surprised on two fronts - he's only 30, and he's this high up the list. I don't see his career lasting long enough to come close to hitting about 300 more HR, but it's still cool seeing him here.

 

Jay Bruce - 166 (46th) - still only 27, Bruce plays in the right park and is the right type of hitter to approach 500HR. He could be around 280HR once he hits 30, which would give him a shot.

 

Justin Upton - 135 (73rd) - at 26 years old, a great prime would give him a good chance, but 500's a long way off

 

Giancarlo Stanton - 119 (83rd) - 24 yrs old, unlimited power. If he stays healthy, I think he'll get there. He's that good.

 

Mike Trout - 64 HR at the age of 22 - give me 3 more great seasons of 30+ HR and he's in the conversation...too soon to tell though

[reillymcshane]

Beltre has 376. He's averaged 31 a season for the last four years. He just turned 35 yesterday, so he'd need to average 25 a year for five years. If he stays in Texas... perhaps.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Beltre was one I thought about including, I think his age made me rule him out - definitely has had a solid run of production in TX though. That free agent year of 48 HR in 2004 sure looks like one of those outliers created with some chemical help now, doesn't it? He OPS'd 1.017 that season and has come within 100 points of that only twice since then.

[And That]

If Trout stays healthy, he might get to 500 by the time he's 33. You have to keep in mind that he's still probably 3-5 years away from entering his prime.

 

As for why there are fewer players close to 500 than you'd expect, runs have been trending downward for awhile now. Part of this is probably due to MLB cracking down on performance enhancers, part of it is probably due to the influx of quality power arms throughout the league.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Trout stays healthy, he might get to 500 by the time he's 33. You have to keep in mind that he's still probably 3-5 years away from entering his prime.

 

Highly unlikely, even if he continues to be the Mike Trout we've come to know. He'd have to average 40 HR a year over 11 seasons to reach 500. As great a start as he's had to his career, he hasn't hit more than 30 so far.

 

Trout's on my list because he's one of the few players that's both young and talented enough to play that long at a high level to get to 500 HR. Saying he could get there by 33 is a little too ambitious IMO, even by Trout's standards.

[topper09er]

MLB has not seen a huge spike in 500 HR club members recently. Through 1960 there were 4 members, Ruth, Foxx, Ott and Williams.

 

From September 1965 to September 1971 there were 7 members added to the club over that 6 year span. I guess Mays, Mantle, Mathews, Aaron, Banks, Killebrew and Robinson were all heavily juicing.

 

Then over the next 40 seasons from 72-01 there were 6 additions to the club; McCovey, Jackson, Schmidt, Murray, McGwire and Bonds.

 

And finally over the past 13 seasons we have seen 8 new additions, just 1 more than the PED raging late 60s in more than twice the time, and in a league with 33% more players.

 

Maybe we are just seeing the natural balancing of powers and we are in for another 6 new members over a 40 years period.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I like what you did there by splitting up numbers to fit your argument...I can do that to.

 

From when baseball started to roughly the year 2000, let's say 100 years for the sake of simplicity, there was a total of 15 players who hit 500 HR in their careers. I omitted Bonds and McGwire, because quite frankly they're the faces of the steroid era. That list includes all time greats, all of them sure fire hall of famers.

 

In the past 14 seasons, including McGwire and Bonds, there have been 11 more players who hit 500 HR. That list includes known juicers (Bonds, McGwire, Arod, Sosa, Palmeiro, Man Ramirez), Sheffield, Griffey, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome. Even in the era of small parks and juiced baseballs, half these guys don't reach 500 HR without PEDs prolonging and enhancing their primes.

 

The pile of players from 1965 through 1971 that you sarcastically remarked were juicing? Who knows for sure, but I do know one thing - a majority of their careers were played with 162-game seasons, and during league expansions that watered down pitching talent. Getting an extra 8 games a year to hit HR couldn't have hurt their chances. Also, I wonder if you realize 4 of the 7 that hit 500HR during that period wouldn't have been able to play MLB had their careers started a generation or two earlier, before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. And aside from the color barrier a few decades earlier, there was also that thing called WWII that hampered a good number of career totals for some great players who would've had a shot in the 40's and early 50's.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay so looking at the list I'm randomly going to project 500 Club year Joined:

Pujols-2014

Dunn-2017

Ortiz-2017

Miggy-2018

Beltre 2019

Fielder-2022

Stanton-2023

Braun-doesn't get there

Reynolds doesn't get there

Bruce-2027

Upton-no chance

Trout-2030

 

I'll throw in couple other names. Evan Longoria He's a 33 HR 162 game avg player is 28 keeps the avg going for 10 more seasons he's about at 500

Chris Davis. Yeah he's far behind when you consider average in 10years needing to be 37HRs per season. But let's credit him with two 50HR years. And he's right in line with Longoria of 33HRs per season then the other 8years.

Both are guys who to me will likely see DH longevity for their careers. Remember this is the lousy 1b age so in 5-6years you're not looking at Prince Fielders filling up DHs, it's be these two, like Braun/Zimmerman taking over DH roles for teams.

 

That prediction holds up we're looking at 9 players in 11seasons joining the 500 club. Isn't that quite a hefty number?

I think another thing that's' hurting the potential for 500 club is the age these players are joining the Majors. Rather than run guys out there in their teens/ age 20 season, many of these power hitters are getting started age 23 and some not coming in to their own til they are 26. as is the case for Davis. Or, it's how finicky clubs are at protecting their players, throwing them on the DL whenever possible to keep their investment healthy. Rather than ask them to play through it.

[Baldkin]

http://steroids-and-baseball.com/healing-effects.shtml

 

Dr. Mary Lee Vance, professor of internal medicine at the University of Virginia and author of a much-cited 2003 study of growth hormone, was interviewed by the Baltimore Sun in late 2007 about players' perceptions that hGH helps recovery: "I think the key word is perception," Vance said, "because there's no evidence at all that it helps anyone recover from injuries."

 

It should be noted that hGH, like certain steroids, does have a recognized function and value in healing skin, particularly in burn recovery; each can also be useful for people who, for one reason or another, are deficient in that substance and have serious wounds. None of that has anything to do with what athletes are imagining about it.

 

The game has changed. No longer is striking out a sin. No longer is hitting .300 a requirement. The value of walks, the value of power are both realized much more by Coaches and GMs. Adam Dunn would've been run out of the league in the 40's or 50's.

[pogokat]

I think Adam Dunn is about to be run out of the league in the 2010's...i don't think he'll find a major league deal after this season and there is no way he sticks around until 2017 as someone above me suggested.

[topper09er]

The pile of players from 1965 through 1971 that you sarcastically remarked were juicing? Who knows for sure, but I do know one thing - a majority of their careers were played with 162-game seasons, and during league expansions that watered down pitching talent. Getting an extra 8 games a year to hit HR couldn't have hurt their chances. Also, I wonder if you realize 4 of the 7 that hit 500HR during that period wouldn't have been able to play MLB had their careers started a generation or two earlier, before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. And aside from the color barrier a few decades earlier, there was also that thing called WWII that hampered a good number of career totals for some great players who would've had a shot in the 40's and early 50's.

 

You are proving my point for me. If you look into the reasons behind why players have a better chance to hit 500 HRs you will realize they are not reaching 500 HR more commonly now than at any other time.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think Adam Dunn is about to be run out of the league in the 2010's...i don't think he'll find a major league deal after this season and there is no way he sticks around until 2017 as someone above me suggested.

 

Well, he's playing this year, add another 30HRs maybe 35 HRs leaving him less than 30 from 500.

I imagine he becomes a PH, off the bench bat like Giambi did long enough to reach 500. But if he winds up playing for a team, then no doubt he reaches 500. As this topic is talking about HRs where are the 40HR type batters, Dunn is capable still of accomplishing?

If I'm wrong I'm wrong but HR Power and 4-5years on his side to still find ways to play the game will get him to 500.

[reillymcshane]

I like that the day I brought up Beltre as a potential 500 HR guy, he goes and gets hurt.

 

Maybe I have a special power. Who should I curse?