Oof. Baseball America's "top organizations with 25 and under talent"

[The stache]

Oh, and here's one more thing that is frustrating.

 

The rankings I've been using are from MLB.com, as I can just pull it up on my laptop, and not have to dig (I could used BBA's website, but I'm more familiar with MLB.com, and I certainly don't want to dig through all my magazines). That being said, MLB.com uses the following numerical grades on the typical 20-80 scouting scale.

 

40 is below average

50 is league average

60 is above average

70-80 is well above average

 

Milwaukee's top rated prospect is Jimmy Nelson. His overall grade is a 55, slightly above average (I think this is low, and should be a 60).

The remainder of our top 5?

2. Tyrone Taylor 50

3. Devin Williams 50

4. Orlando Arcia 50

5. Mitch Haniger 45

 

That's right, the 5th best prospect in our organization projects to be a below-average Major Leaguer, as do Nick Delmonico, Johnny Hellweg, Victor Roache, Taylor Jungmann and Hunter Morris.

 

The Astros? Overall grades:

 

1. Carlos Correa 65

2. Mark Appel 65

3. George Springer 60

4. Jon Singleton 55

5. Lance McCullers 55

6. Mike Foltynewicz 55

7. DeLino Deshields 55

8. Domingo Santana 55

9. Vicente Velasquez 55

[RightFieldCoder]

We used to have a system that good. And it got us one good year. I think we need to clear out the top (the front office) before we worry about rebuilding the bottom.

[SRB]

We probably would be pretty good if it was a 30 and under list.

 

I would still rather have this organization as is than the Astros for example.

 

I would agree, but it's much closer than you might think.

 

If you look at who the Astros have in the minors, they have 4 top 50 prospects in Carlos Correa, Mark Appell, George Springer and Jonathan Singleton. They have another, Lance McCullers at #52, Mike Foltynewicz at #54, and DeLino DeShields at #66. Jarred Cosart, who got the win for them today, was the #31 prospect in 2011. He's 23. They also have a third baseman prospect I would KILL to have in Milwaukee named Matt Dominguez. He might only be a career .250-.260 hitter, and he needs to work on drawing more walks. But his bat is live, and he'll hit 25 to 30 home runs a year. And he's spectacular defensively. He won't be 25 until August. He was the #35 prospect in 2011, and the #1 ranked third baseman in all the minors.

 

So, here's their future positional players and a comp to what we have now:

 

C Jason Castro (advantage Milwaukee, Lucroy will be an All Star this year or next)

1B Jonathan Singleton (advantage Houston. Singleton likes the ganja, which could be a problem. If he can manage that, he's the #1 1B prospect in baseball)

2B Jose Altuve (Altuve has been an All Star. He has speed and can hit .280-.290 + Can Gennett match him in a full season?)

SS Carlos Correa (edge Milwaukee for now. Correa is going to be a stud. He has real power, and a gun for an arm.)

3B Matt Dominguez (edge Milwaukee for now. But how long can Ramirez hang on?)

OF George Springer (Braun is an MVP. Springer hit 37 HR and stole 45 bases last year. He's a top 10 prospect in baseball. Edge Milwaukee)

OF Dexter Fowler (edge Milwaukee. Big edge Gomez)

OF Delino DeShields (edge Milwaukee. But Khris Davis needs to show he can do it over a full season. DeShields will be an average + hitter, and an average + fielder. He'll also steal 60 + bases each year.)

 

Their rotation is promising, too.

 

SP Jared Cosart

SP Mark Appel

SP Lance McCullers

SP Mike Foltynewicz

 

Now, not all of those guys will live up to their billing. But none of these guys are over 26. And Singleton and Dominguez blow away any bookend young talent we have in the entire organization right now.

 

The Brewers could win right now, but it's a smaller window than it used to be. The Astros have the young talent that we wish we had.

 

The difference is that Milwaukee has a number of youngish (well, not ancient...) players who have actually proven their ability to play in MLB. Prospects are nice, but the failure rate is huge. Whatever happened to the Diamondbacks dream farm system from a few years ago (are any of them even on the team anymore?). Even Kansas City is looking pretty mediocre despite all the hype.

 

I think the Brewers farm system is pretty poor right now, but at least the front office appears to be aware of this (for example, new highs in international spending recently). There's only so much you can do when you whiff on top draft picks a few years in a row.

[paul253]

I didn't want to start a new thread on this but I am really getting frustrated with the Brewers' player development and I think this year's minor league rosters show a complete lack of organizational plan. Recent drafts have been pretty bad and recent personnel moves, in my opinion at least, are very head scratching. I agree with RightFieldCoder. I think the people in charge of this type of stuff are completely inept and the system will not get much better until they are replaced. Just a few examples to show what I am talking about:

 

- Thornburg in the Milwaukee bullpen with Burgos, Hellweg and Fiers all in the Nashville rotation. I think Thornburg is the only one of those guys who even has a chance to stay in the rotation, yet instead of having him pitch every 5th day in Nashville and using someone like Fiers or Burgos or Hellweg in the bullpen it's the other way around. I'd even prefer Rob Wooten or Donovan Hand in Milwaukee's bullpen. Quit screwing with Thornburg.

 

- I realize Josh Prince and Kentrail Davis didn't set the world on fire in Nashville last year but did they really deserve demotions? I'd rather have Davis playing everyday OF in Nashville than an MLB has been like Jeremy Hermida. And Prince should have never been move off of SS. Again, I know he doesn't profile as anything more than a bench guy but he's more valuable as a bench guy at SS than a bench guy at CF.

 

- I don't care what position he plays but Jason Rogers should be in Nashville. Again, why the need to sign a Jeremy Hermida when you have your own drafted players that can play the position?

 

- Why are Orlando Arcia and Yadiel Rivera on the same team? I thought it was a mistake to put Arcia in WI last year. He did ok but he's young enough that another year down there may have helped his offensive game a bit. He's our top SS prospect and now he'll be playing 2nd base at least some of the time. So in addition to continuing to improve his offense he has to learn a new position.

 

- Speaking of new positions isn't it about time we gave a new one to Clint Coulter? At 6'3'' and all of 0 decent fist base and third base prospects why not move him now and let him get as much time at the position as possible? But if you insist on letting him catch then let him catch. Quit putting him at DH every other game.

 

- Finally while I appreciate the confidence in David Denson I'm concerned his promotion to Wisconsin will look a lot like Clint Coulter's ill fated promotion to Wisconsin last season. Hopefully he holds his own and stays healthy but I think a trip to Helena would have been better for him.

 

I realize this is just my opinion and there are people who will disagree with every one of the points. It just seems to me that a organization that lacks talent as much the Brewers do should be more willing to reward prospects who succeeded last year and be a little more cautious with guys who didn't.

[JohnBriggs12]

One good draft, a couple solid international signings, a trade, and development of current players in the system and rankings can change dramatically. Must I remind everyone that Jonathon Lucroy never once was on a top 100 prospect list? Furthermore, even if this current Brewer team fails to contend (I think though flawed, they will), there are numerous pieces that other teams covet and therefore can bring talent in return.

 

So called "starting over" and dismantling a decent roster comes with no assurance that 4-5 years down the road they'll have a competitive team or if even they do, that it won't be sabotaged by injuries and failures common in any sport. All it basically assures is they'll be bad for 3 or more seasons. No thanks.

[paul253]

One good draft, a couple solid international signings, a trade, and development of current players in the system and rankings can change dramatically.

 

How long do we have to wait for this "one good draft"? There's a draft every year yet we never seem to get those high ceiling players that we need. And there's an international signing period every year too. Who is the last international free agent that has turned into a high end prospect for us? We signed Wily Peralta 7 years ago. And Alcides Escobar 9 years ago. Anyone else? Arcia may turn into something but he's a long ways away.

 

That's the whole problem with this system. While all we need is one good draft that good draft never really seems to come. I still have hope for the 2012 class even though there's still no pitching. And in 2010 we got Nelson, Thornburg and Morris. But when is the last time we drafted a guy with #1 potential? Probably 2006 when we drafted Jeffress. That's 7 drafts without drafting one guy who profiles as a #1. And maybe even a #2 depending on how you view Odorizzi. Meanwhile in 2008 when had 6 of the top 62 picks. 4 of those guys were absolute busts and none of them remain in our system. In 2009 we had 5 of the top 73 picks. None of those guys profiles as anything more than a bench player. In 2011 we had two of the top 15 picks in a very strong draft and as each year passes it looks more and more like we blew that one too. For the record that is absolute failure in 3 drafts in 4 years, all of which we had a golden opportunity to build up the talent in the system. So yes, all we need is one good draft. But what about this front office and scouting/draft department has given you confidence that we are capable of having the one good draft, let alone two or three good drafts in a row?

[RockCoCougars]

The bottom line to me is that the Brewers need to stop whiffing on their first round picks. Since Braun, really the only one to achieve anything at the MLB level has been Lawrie, and the jury is still out on him. Yes, they've been picking mid-late first round mostly since then, but still.

[TheCrew07]

First of all no team is "one good draft" away from anything in baseball, that's just not how it works. We're 1 good draft away from having an impact player in 3 years...

 

The core of the "good" Brewer teams we've had over the last decade was drafted one a player at a time;

 

Hart - 11th round 2000

Hardy - 2nd round 2001

Fielder - 1st round 2002

Weeks - 1st round 2003

Gallardo - 2nd round 2004

Braun - 1st round 2005

Lucroy - 3rd round 2007

 

I have a very hard time with how dismissive people are about the talent issue, as if there's some quick fix, when there truly isn't. It takes years to build a farm system and it takes a ton of time and effort to keep it going through the years because your staff is going to be pilfered by other organizations. The correct people have to consistently end up in the proper positions to maintain success.

 

The Brewers have neither continued to cultivate talent in the farm system nor have they continued with strong leadership in those key positions. It's not as if the Brewers didn't know they were trading away what they couldn't replace prospect wise, they just chose to do so. A long time ago a poster named X correctly pointed out that all of Melvin's best personnel moves were bought with prospects, and the true test of how good of a GM he would be is when he had no more prospects to spend on proven MLB talent.

 

All we essentially have done is come back full circle... we started with Suppan because we didn't have spare talent to trade, then spent all of the prospect currency, and have now circled back to FA pitching in Lohse and Garza. Hopefully both those guys work out much better than the FA acquisitions that came before them, but it's hard to be excited when the exact same patterns continue to repeat themselves for this organization.

[dlk9s]

The Astros? Overall grades:

 

1. Carlos Correa 65

2. Mark Appel 65

3. George Springer 60

4. Jon Singleton 55

5. Lance McCullers 55

6. Mike Foltynewicz 55

7. DeLino Deshields 55

8. Domingo Santana 55

9. Vicente Velasquez 55

I think that's his age.

[brewcrewdue80]

How fantastic would this Franchise look if they drafted Fernandez/Gray. Cy Young/ and a #2 in 2011? It's just beyond frustrating to look at that draft the #1/#2 pitchers selected all around the Brewers picks and we found 2 nobody's maybe #4s.

 

Personally, Everyone at the top involved in that draft would be fired after Fernandez's year and Gray starting in the Playoffs for Oak. There is no reason anybody should be left because youre grade is F and F means Fired in my books.

 

Just want to add: MLB's Scouting rankings of this year's draft class, the top 18 have an overall ranking of 60 which would be higher than any Grade of our current prospect class. How sad is that?

[KCBrewerfan34]

I'm so sick of Seid and his bad drafts, luck says he's going to hit on a pick before the end of this decade, I've stated for the last 2 years this guy has to go.

[Mudville9]

Take that, Yankees!

 

[HiAndTight]

This comes as no surprise to me as the Brewers continue to ignore the future for the sake of the "win now" mode. I'd be ok with that.....if they were actually winning. I hated the Kyle Lohse deal as it cost us a first round pick and I didn't feel like we were a Kyle Lohse away from competing in the division. I did not really like the Matt Garza signing either as not only did it cost Nelson or Thornburg a rotation spot but it was that much less money available to spend on the draft or international free agents. I know this is like heresy but I wouldn't be opposed to the Brewers having another first half like they had last year if it gets them to move some of their older guys like Ramirez, Lohse, Estrada and KRod and opens room for guys like Thornburg and Nelson. It would also give them another much needed high-ish draft pick.

 

The Brewers have got to hit on this upcoming #12 pick as well. There are three HS arms I really like (Aiken, Ortiz, Holmes) and I wouldn't be upset with a guy like Braxton Davidson, Jacob Gatewood or TiQuan Forbes. If they continue to settle for high floor low ceiling players I'll be furious, especially after last year's pathetic draft.

 

 

The problem with this statement is the assumption that spending that money on Garza is somehow stopping us from spending on the draft or on international FA's. They've got an agreement for 3.5 million dollars to sign one of the top international FA's, and there just isn't that much room to operate any longer with regard to the draft as the slotting process is fairly rigid.

 

As for Nelson or Thornburg, neither are Gerrit Cole type starters. Both COULD be good starting pitchers, and they'll be given the chance to be starters for the Brewers. Matt Garza isn't standing in the way of them. Marco Estrada is more likely standing in their way. You seem to be making a lot of assumptions with regard to Garza signing that simply do not seem to be there.

 

And if the Brewers DID have a bad 1st half, I would certainly hope they would be more willing to dump many of these players as well. Gallardo, Garza, Lohse, ARam, K-Rod, etc...but actually rooting for it? That's baffling to me as a fan. If I had to bet, I wouldn't bet this team is better than a 85 win team, but there is more than enough talent on this team and enough younger players who could really establish themselves this year(Khris Davis, Will Smith, Peralta, Gennett) that this team is close enough with the additional WC spot to at least potentially compete.

[HiAndTight]

This is why the Brewers need a major overhaul from top to bottom.

 

Disagree that the Brewers have a solid team in Milwaukee. They look like a team that will struggle to score runs and struggle to finish .500, and are a major injury or two away from a #1 overall draft pick in 2015 (which Melvin will be tempted to give away in order to sign a 30 something big name pitcher)

 

 

Mark Attanasio came out and talked about the process of signing Lohse(and Garza for that matter) and how in both cases, he was the one who brought it to Melvin. It was Attanasio who wanted to sign both. In the case of Lohse, Melvin was the one who was skeptical because of the loss of a 1st round pick. Not to mention of course if you have the 1st round pick, you can't "give it away," for any signing.

 

And I think they're a whole lot more than ONE injury away from being a 55-60 win team.

[torts]

"just imagine if we had drafted THAT guy instead of THIS guy"

 

[Warning Track Power]

"just imagine if we had drafted THAT guy instead of THIS guy"

 

The point is that the Brewers had the #12 and #15 pick in the 2011 draft and somehow managed to not draft a stud when Jose Fernandez was drafted at #14, CJ Cron at #17, Sonny Gray at #18, Matt Barnes at #19. Missing on one pick is understandable but missing on two when the talent surrounding the picks have been just what the Brewers need, shows the drafting and scouting philosophy of this team needs a major adjustment.

[ewitkows]

Maybe they didn't miss on the talent, maybe it's how they're brought along in the minors.

[TheCrew07]

Maybe they didn't miss on the talent, maybe it's how they're brought along in the minors.

 

I'm sure there's a developmental component to this but Jungmann wasn't close to the pitcher he was being billed as, Melvin set the bar way too high when he mentioned off the cuff that Taylor might contribute on the big league level right away which posters here latched onto. (In fact that's not a statement I'd ever saddle on a MLB draft pick.) I've analyzed Jungmann to death over the years and my opinions on him haven't changed since the first time I closely watched him pitch in the College WS regionals. I won't rehash all of that here, but this is a recent post on him I made on the draft forum which basically summarizes what I saw without getting into the pitch by pitch specifics.

 

The biggest part of the Brewer's problem developing pitching is correctly identifying impact talent from the start. If amatuer scouts like me can see that a guy doesn't have much upside then what exactly are the Brewer's looking at? I think their pro player scouting department is pretty good, but the amateur scouting both for the draft and internationally has left a ton to be desired over the years.

 

I won't argue that Brewers aren't good at developing pitchers but I think that's a moot point if there aren't pitchers worth developing. It's not like they can turn a Mike Fiers into a Justin Verlander, you're just hoping they can get the most of each guy. The Brewers have a history of drafting players who's velocity actually decreases, that's the most telling sign I can think of, you'd actually expect the reverse to be true.

[3and2Fastball]

To spin things a little more positively: Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett & Marco Estrada weren't thought of as Blue Chip Top 100 prospects, and all 3 of them are emerging as possibly very solid starting MLB players. Lucroy was developed into an elite level player as well. Peralta is turning the corner (hopefully)

 

So maybe it isn't all doom & gloom in terms of the Brewers' ability to develop players, and maybe a few more "under the radar" players currently in the farm system will emerge as bigger MLB contributors than currently projected

[DatHoser]

FWIW, Marco Estrada was picked up off waivers from the Nats so he doesn't count as a Brewer draft pick.

[3and2Fastball]

FWIW, Marco Estrada was picked up off waivers from the Nats so he doesn't count as a Brewer draft pick.

 

You are right. Forgot about that.... OK, scratch Estrada off the list, but Peralta & Gallardo were Brewers developmented pitchers

[TheCrew07]

FWIW, Marco Estrada was picked up off waivers from the Nats so he doesn't count as a Brewer draft pick.

 

You are right. Forgot about that.... OK, scratch Estrada off the list, but Peralta & Gallardo were Brewers developmented pitchers

 

That's whole problem, you can't develop 1 legitimate starting pitcher every 6-7 years and get over the top. While I like Peralta, he has to take a huge step forward to pitch at the level Gallardo did when he came up (at a much younger age). I've gone through and posted draft by draft analysis of impact talent in the past and don't want to recreate that time and effort here, but if you just think about the simple math... The Brewers control a player for 6+ years before FA, so depending on possible extensions you're talking a small overlap like we had from Sheets to Gallardo and now Gallardo to Peralta (hopefully). Essentially all you're doing is replacing the 1 pitcher you originally had. We need to introduce a #3 or better every other year at worst to maintain a top flight MLB rotation from within.

[danzig6767]

Maybe they didn't miss on the talent, maybe it's how they're brought along in the minors.

 

The biggest part of the Brewer's problem developing pitching is correctly identifying impact talent from the start. If amatuer scouts like me can see that a guy doesn't have much upside then what exactly are the Brewer's looking at? I think their pro player scouting department is pretty good, but the amateur scouting both for the draft and internationally has left a ton to be desired over the years.

 

I won't argue that Brewers aren't good at developing pitchers but I think that's a moot point if there aren't pitchers worth developing. It's not like they can turn a Mike Fiers into a Justin Verlander, you're just hoping they can get the most of each guy. The Brewers have a history of drafting players who's velocity actually decreases, that's the most telling sign I can think of, you'd actually expect the reverse to be true.

 

It's not just missing on so-called impact arms, how often have they ever hit on under the radar guys who end up developing into really good pitchers?

 

A Matt Moore type who went in the 8th round or Kris Medlen 10th round. On just the Cardinals last year, Rosenthal was taken in round 21. Kelly 3rd round. Garcia 22nd round. Kevin Siegrist 41st round. That's just the pitching staff. Matt Carpenter went in the 13th round and Craig the 8th round. Molina the 4th round.

 

The Brewers over the years have drafted in say the first 2-3 rounds a fair mix of both hard throwing high school pitchers and college arms, yet no matter who they end picking, those pitchers either get hurt, don't develop, or can't stop smoking weed. Same with rarely ever hitting the jackpot on arms taken in rounds say 5-25. It truly has been an amazing run of futility over a long stretch of time when it comes to drafting and developing pitching. Simple odds would say they should have developed more pitching. Have Seid and Zduriencik simply had a bad eye for pitching talent? Is it that basic?

 

Hell, even with all of that futility, if they just drafted Jose Fernandez in 2011, it would have made up for so many past mistakes. That's a HOF pitcher if he can stay healthy. Then again, it's makes me wonder how the hell he lasted until the 14th pick. How do Shelby Miller and Trout last until the 19th and 25th picks?

 

I don't follow amateur baseball at all, but on the surface, it seems like baseball in general more than any pro sport is volatile when it comes to evaluating amateur talent. Wonder why that is? There is a fair amount of of that in football also, but not quite to the same degree. I'm trying to figure out how 24 amateur scouting directors all watched Trout play and thought, i'll take someone else instead or 13 passed on Fernandez, but then again Aaron Rodgers lasted to the 24th pick and Brady went in the 6th round. This stuff baffles me sometimes, but it's not like i've scouted high school and college players to say i would have known Trout and Fernandez were HOF talents.

[trwi7]

Weighted team ages.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-old-and-the-restlesss-weighted-team-ages/

[TheCrew07]

Weighted team ages.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-old-and-the-restlesss-weighted-team-ages/

 

That's about what we should have expected given our previous discussion on the matter.