Oof. Baseball America's "top organizations with 25 and under talent"

[The stache]

I just got the new Baseball America in the mail yesterday. They ranked organizational talent 25 and under.

 

1. Braves

2. Marlins

3. Cardinals

4. Royals

5. Cubs

6. Astros

7. Rangers

8. Red Sox

9. White Sox

10. Mets

11. Pirates

12. Rockies

13. Mariners

14. Nationals

15. Twins

16. Diamondbacks

17. Orioles

18. Padres

19. Tigers

20. Angels

21. Rays

22. Giants

23. Athletics

24. Dodgers

25. Phillies

26. Blue Jays

27. Reds

28. Indians

29. Brewers

30. Yankees

 

Certainly, various forms of this discussion have been held here on BrewerFan before. But while we struggle to find a first baseman with some staying power, this latest list puts emphasis on just how poor we've been drafting for a while now.

 

There's no guarantee, obviously, that young talent will pan out. For every Mike Trout, there will be 10 Jesus Monteros. But we're not adding the young talent a franchise like the Brewers with their limited financial resources needs to continually be competitive.

[Warning Track Power]

This is certainly depressing.

 

The only real saving grace to this is that we SHOULD have some time to buy through multiple years of drafts given a majority of our everyday lineup is younger and controlled for multiple more seasons (Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, Segura). If Davis/Schafer and Gennett develop into everyday players, the lineup may only have issues at 1B and 3B over the next 3-4 seasons. Moreover, our rotation could be the same provided health and development (Gallardo, Garza, Peralta, Thornburg, Nelson, Jungmann, etc...)

 

It's certainly not ideal, but whether or not a Astros-style rebuild is in our future will depend heavily on the next 2-3 drafts.

[Funketown]

Take that, Yankees!

[fondybrewfan]

It is not like our team is full of 35 year old has beens either. Our MLB team is still fairly young; just not under 25 young. Plus a lot of them will be around for a long time yet putting less emphasis on the farm system as it stands today.

 

Obviously the Brewers have some work to do to improve the talent in MILB but this isn't some sort of doomsday for Milwaukee. The Brewers have a solid team in Milwaukee that likely won't need a ton of MILB talent to stay competitive in the near future. But we do really need a 3B and 1B prospect for sure.

[stalton]

I'd be curious to see where our average age of our 25 man roster compares to everybody else. I would guess somewhere around 5th youngest

[3and2Fastball]

This is why the Brewers need a major overhaul from top to bottom.

 

Disagree that the Brewers have a solid team in Milwaukee. They look like a team that will struggle to score runs and struggle to finish .500, and are a major injury or two away from a #1 overall draft pick in 2015 (which Melvin will be tempted to give away in order to sign a 30 something big name pitcher)

[trwi7]

[sarcasm]They're being completely unfair to us because we don't hype our young talent like other teams do.[/sarcasm]

[TheCrew07]

This was covered in the minor league forum, as is all prospect news. All divisional news is linked there (in season you can find that information in the daily Link Reports), Brewer prospect news is broken down into the "Your 2014 Wisconsin..." type threads, and the transaction thread has all of the comings and goings.

 

Off season threads linked below:

 

Heading into 2014 - Brewer Organizational Player Rankings

 

Off-season Divisional Prospect News

 

2014 Miscellaneous MILB Notes

 

Minor League Transaction Thread -- From 2013 All-Star Break to 2014 Opening Week

[trwi7]

I'd be curious to see where our average age of our 25 man roster compares to everybody else. I would guess somewhere around 5th youngest

 

Tied for 12th youngest with Washington.

 

Houston - 26.9

Miami - 27.1

Atlanta - 27.2

St. Louis - 27.3

Colorado - 27.7

Chicago (AL) - 27.8

Chicago (NL) - 28.0

Baltimore - 28.0

Seattle - 28.1

Cincinnati - 28.2

Pittsburgh - 28.3

Milwaukee - 28.4

Washington - 28.4

Kansas City - 28.5

Minnesota - 28.6

Oakland - 28.6

San Diego - 28.7

Cleveland - 28.7

New York (NL) - 28.8

Texas - 28.9

Los Angeles (AL) 29.0

Toronto - 29.2

Detroit - 29.3

Arizona - 29.4

San Francisco - 29.5

Tampa Bay - 29.5

Los Angeles (NL) - 29.8

Philadelphia - 30.3

Boston - 30.4

New York (AL) - 30.9

 

Looking at that we're also the oldest team in the division.

[logan82]

Half the league is at 28-29. I would count that as basically the same age.

[sveumrules]

This is why the Brewers need a major overhaul from top to bottom.

 

Disagree that the Brewers have a solid team in Milwaukee. They look like a team that will struggle to score runs and struggle to finish .500, and are a major injury or two away from a #1 overall draft pick in 2015 (which Melvin will be tempted to give away in order to sign a 30 something big name pitcher)

 

While I agree with your first sentence, if the team does somehow land the number one pick in next year's draft it will be protected. Signing a free agent would result in us relinquishing our 2nd round pick, I believe.

[logan82]

I think we are more than a few injuries away from the first pick. Houston was/is pretty bad.

[paul253]

This comes as no surprise to me as the Brewers continue to ignore the future for the sake of the "win now" mode. I'd be ok with that.....if they were actually winning. I hated the Kyle Lohse deal as it cost us a first round pick and I didn't feel like we were a Kyle Lohse away from competing in the division. I did not really like the Matt Garza signing either as not only did it cost Nelson or Thornburg a rotation spot but it was that much less money available to spend on the draft or international free agents. I know this is like heresy but I wouldn't be opposed to the Brewers having another first half like they had last year if it gets them to move some of their older guys like Ramirez, Lohse, Estrada and KRod and opens room for guys like Thornburg and Nelson. It would also give them another much needed high-ish draft pick.

 

The Brewers have got to hit on this upcoming #12 pick as well. There are three HS arms I really like (Aiken, Ortiz, Holmes) and I wouldn't be upset with a guy like Braxton Davidson, Jacob Gatewood or TiQuan Forbes. If they continue to settle for high floor low ceiling players I'll be furious, especially after last year's pathetic draft.

[logan82]

I did not really like the Matt Garza signing either as not only did it cost Nelson or Thornburg a rotation spot but it was that much less money available to spend on the draft or international free agents.

All that stuff is slotted or capped so I don't think Garza will have an impact on that. Yes I know it is a cap that only hands out penalties.

[3and2Fastball]

This is why the Brewers need a major overhaul from top to bottom.

 

Disagree that the Brewers have a solid team in Milwaukee. They look like a team that will struggle to score runs and struggle to finish .500, and are a major injury or two away from a #1 overall draft pick in 2015 (which Melvin will be tempted to give away in order to sign a 30 something big name pitcher)

 

While I agree with your first sentence, if the team does somehow land the number one pick in next year's draft it will be protected. Signing a free agent would result in us relinquishing our 2nd round pick, I believe.

 

Great news! I love it when MLB rules are "Melvin proof".

[monty57]

Half the league is at 28-29. I would count that as basically the same age.

 

That makes sense, as the range of players is early 20's to late 30's, with few players at either extreme. Most MLB players are mid-20's to mid-30's, so most teams will have similar average age. It'd be nice to see a weighted average, giving preference to star players and starters over role players.

 

For example, Wang brings down our average significantly, but will never play. Had the Brewers kept a random 30-year-old instead of Wang, they'd probably be in the bottom third age-wise. Meanwhile, had they kept Francisco instead of Overbay, they'd probably be in the top third. Neither of these moves would have changed the "star power" of the team, but would have significantly affected the average age.

[logan82]

It'd be nice to see a weighted average, giving preference to star players and starters over role players.

That would be more interesting.

 

For example, Wang brings down our average significantly, but will never play. Had the Brewers kept a random 30-year-old instead of Wang, they'd probably be in the bottom third age-wise.

I think that would take us to 28.8.

 

Meanwhile, had they kept Francisco instead of Overbay, they'd probably be in the top third. Neither of these moves would have changed the "star power" of the team, but would have significantly affected the average age.

I think that would also take us to 28.8. Both would take us to 29.2. I think. I did it quickly so I may have made some mistakes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Take that, Yankees!

 

After a loonnng day, this post was great

[monty57]

It'd be nice to see a weighted average, giving preference to star players and starters over role players.

That would be more interesting.

 

For example, Wang brings down our average significantly, but will never play. Had the Brewers kept a random 30-year-old instead of Wang, they'd probably be in the bottom third age-wise.

I think that would take us to 28.8.

 

Meanwhile, had they kept Francisco instead of Overbay, they'd probably be in the top third. Neither of these moves would have changed the "star power" of the team, but would have significantly affected the average age.

I think that would also take us to 28.8. Both would take us to 29.2. I think. I did it quickly so I may have made some mistakes.

 

In the second case, you would be replacing a 36 year old with a 23 year old, so the number should go down. But either way, it shows how much the number can change by taking one person with limited ability and replacing them with a similarly "talented" person who is older or younger.

[logan82]

27.9 instead of 28.8 in the second case. Figured I made a mistake somewhere.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yep, under 25 talent, nothing to see here just keep moving. I'm truthfully surprised the Yankees are ranked below Milwaukee after their 2013 3 1st rd choices. Better than What Milwaukee has Brewing at the moment.

[fondybrewfan]

We probably would be pretty good if it was a 30 and under list.

 

I would still rather have this organization as is than the Astros for example.

[brewcrewdue80]

We probably would be pretty good if it was a 30 and under list.

 

I would still rather have this organization as is than the Astros for example.

 

That is a tough call honestly. Right now, Houston has a ton of high end upside premium prospects in Position players as well as Pitching. And they are going to pick Rodon or Kolek with the #1 pick who when they do those individuals are already better than any Brewers Prospect in ranking. I look at it like the Cubs, in around 1year or 2 the Astros can open their checkbook to 100mil and have 7-9 fantastic prospects all joining there ranks at under 1mil a piece. Houston could easily win the WS 2years from now. and be consistent contenders for the WS every year after for the next 3-5years.

Brewers on the hand? They have this year and after that? Shrugs, I dunno. We could see Taylor, Delmonico, Roache, and Williams make good progress in ability and all would be well. Or they could go the way of Jungmann/Bradley and if they did, I'll take Houston every year for the next 7years after this season. They are going to have too many high end prospects to not fail as an organization. And open the checkbook for a few quality FA signings? Okay we're tapped out as we stand today with the lack of prospects coming. They can spend probably 75mil-85mil per season on FAs when they feel like it.

But again, everything can change with just 1 big trade by Milw FO that brings in a couple high quality prospects for 1 replaceable stud player(Gomez, A SP) and all can look well on the home front.

[fondybrewfan]

The Astros have also been truly awful for 3 years now; is it really worth it to be bad for that long only to have the chance to develop really good players. I don't think I want to relive the 2004 Brewers all over again until 2018.

[The stache]

We probably would be pretty good if it was a 30 and under list.

 

I would still rather have this organization as is than the Astros for example.

 

I would agree, but it's much closer than you might think.

 

If you look at who the Astros have in the minors, they have 4 top 50 prospects in Carlos Correa, Mark Appell, George Springer and Jonathan Singleton. They have another, Lance McCullers at #52, Mike Foltynewicz at #54, and DeLino DeShields at #66. Jarred Cosart, who got the win for them today, was the #31 prospect in 2011. He's 23. They also have a third baseman prospect I would KILL to have in Milwaukee named Matt Dominguez. He might only be a career .250-.260 hitter, and he needs to work on drawing more walks. But his bat is live, and he'll hit 25 to 30 home runs a year. And he's spectacular defensively. He won't be 25 until August. He was the #35 prospect in 2011, and the #1 ranked third baseman in all the minors.

 

So, here's their future positional players and a comp to what we have now:

 

C Jason Castro (advantage Milwaukee, Lucroy will be an All Star this year or next)

1B Jonathan Singleton (advantage Houston. Singleton likes the ganja, which could be a problem. If he can manage that, he's the #1 1B prospect in baseball)

2B Jose Altuve (Altuve has been an All Star. He has speed and can hit .280-.290 + Can Gennett match him in a full season?)

SS Carlos Correa (edge Milwaukee for now. Correa is going to be a stud. He has real power, and a gun for an arm.)

3B Matt Dominguez (edge Milwaukee for now. But how long can Ramirez hang on?)

OF George Springer (Braun is an MVP. Springer hit 37 HR and stole 45 bases last year. He's a top 10 prospect in baseball. Edge Milwaukee)

OF Dexter Fowler (edge Milwaukee. Big edge Gomez)

OF Delino DeShields (edge Milwaukee. But Khris Davis needs to show he can do it over a full season. DeShields will be an average + hitter, and an average + fielder. He'll also steal 60 + bases each year.)

 

Their rotation is promising, too.

 

SP Jared Cosart

SP Mark Appel

SP Lance McCullers

SP Mike Foltynewicz

 

Now, not all of those guys will live up to their billing. But none of these guys are over 26. And Singleton and Dominguez blow away any bookend young talent we have in the entire organization right now.

 

The Brewers could win right now, but it's a smaller window than it used to be. The Astros have the young talent that we wish we had.