Segura & Brewers suspend extension talks again; would you consider shopping him?

[Warning Track Power]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10781398/jedd-gyorko-signs-contract-extension-san-diego-padres

 

6 years $35 million for Gyorko...

 

I doubt that Segura takes this extension but this is much more in line with where I thought his value was. I don't think Segura will be extended in 2014 unless he goes .300/.340/.430 12 HR, 40 SB in 2014. Only then will the Brewers be willing to pay Simmons-type money.

[monty57]

The Brewers should have made their initial offer much high, then knew what they had, which is why they wanted to extend him so soon. When you do this you can't low ball you actually have to shock him with your offer. I stand by my opinion that the Brewers messed up the negotiations.

 

What exactly do they have? The guy who OPS'd .640 in 2012, the guy who OPS'd .849 in the first half of 2013, the guy who OPS'd .583 in the second half of 2013, or the guy with a .565 OPS so far this year?

 

I'd like to sign him based on his potential, and the fact that we don't have any other options, but it has to be done at the right price. I think Melvin is pretty good at this, which is why some guys have turned down his offer... he wouldn't come up to their level, and I'm happy for it. The pre-arby extensions he has signed have generally been good for the team. It's the arby extensions and free agent signings that have been hit-or-miss.

 

Right now I'd say an extension is unlikely, but from what seems to be happening I'm fairly confident that if Segura is extended it will be to a contract that is good for the Brewers, and that will not hurt them too badly if Segura does end up being a .650 OPS MLB hitter.

[SoupTown]

For Segura, his ship has sailed to sign a multi million dollar deal. To be honest, that is good news for the Brewers. It appears Segura will be a good D, decent batting, fast shortstop for the next few years - but nothing special. That is exactly the sort of guy you do not extend and you take year by year until the six years are up. This is what frustrates me about the Brewers. Segura they 'hope and wait' he will be a number two hitter. When he has shown he is the Gennett of shortstop. That is, a valuable, valuable piece at league minimum. Let us judge him for what he does... not what we hope he will do.

[TooLiveBrew]

For Segura, his ship has sailed to sign a multi million dollar deal. To be honest, that is good news for the Brewers. It appears Segura will be a good D, decent batting, fast shortstop for the next few years - but nothing special. That is exactly the sort of guy you do not extend and you take year by year until the six years are up. This is what frustrates me about the Brewers. Segura they 'hope and wait' he will be a number two hitter. When he has shown he is the Gennett of shortstop. That is, a valuable, valuable piece at league minimum. Let us judge him for what he does... not what we hope he will do.

Easy, SoupTown. I get that you feel strongly about this, but imho it's pretty clear that his shoulder injury is affecting him. He really should be rested for a few days in a row as a first step.

[HiAndTight]

When have they been killed by it?

 

Rickie Weeks is another contract that is killing us right now and the jury is still out on the Gomez extension. And while he wasn't one of our young guys the contract he gave Suppan was ridiculous given Suppan's career numbers up to that point. Plus we kind of lucked out that long term deals with McGehee and Axford never panned out despite the conversations.

 

 

Rickie Weeks wasn't given a contract extension in his pre arbitration years. And neither was Carlos Gomez. Though I can't even fathom how one would argue that the jury is still out on that deal. The return we could get for Gomez in a trade right now would be astronomical and he's one of the top 5-10 overall players in the game.

 

And while this isn't the point because Suppan's even further removed from the types of deals we're talking about, the deal he gave Suppan based on his numbers was right in line with the market.

 

The 3 years prior to signing Suppan, he'd thrown 572 IP, posted a 3.95 ERA and was huge in the post-season for the Cardinals. Hindsight tells you what an awful deal that was, not his numbers prior to signing. Look at the signings that year. Suppan's deal was in line with the market. And it's pretty public at this point, but Attanasio was the one who initiated the Suppan deal, NOT Melvin.

[adambr2]

When have they been killed by it?

 

Rickie Weeks is another contract that is killing us right now and the jury is still out on the Gomez extension. And while he wasn't one of our young guys the contract he gave Suppan was ridiculous given Suppan's career numbers up to that point. Plus we kind of lucked out that long term deals with McGehee and Axford never panned out despite the conversations.

 

The jury is not "out" on the Carlos Gomez extension, the Carlos Gomez extension is a steal. If he were a free agent right now, I'd be willing to bet that Boras could land him a multi-year deal with an average annual salary of at least double the 7 million that he's making this year.

[Oldcity]

 

When have they been killed by it?

Bill Hall didn't work out.

Yet Ryan Braun certainly did, as did Lucroy, Gallardo.

 

They tried to sign Axford.

[TooLiveBrew]

 

When have they been killed by it?

Bill Hall didn't work out.

Yet Ryan Braun certainly did, as did Lucroy, Gallardo.

 

They tried to sign Axford.

McGehee as well

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

After a rough start to the season, and inches away from what could have been a career ending (or certainly impacting) injury, does Segura re-consider an offer the Brewers might have presented?

 

If he regains his 1st half of 2013 form, and keeps it up for 4 more seasons, he could be looking at a Superstar (7/150) deal... but if he doesn't, and he posts a .650 OPS with elite defense, in some ways, he is "just a guy"...

 

One step further... if he gets whacked by a bat/ball/teammate again and it alters his vision, he could end up a street free agent. None of this is likely, but if you...

 

Had a 5% chance at $0 (or minimal salary) (injury risk)

Had a 80% chance at $40M (over 8 years)

Had a 10% chance at $75M

Had a 5% chance at $100+

 

Would you pass up the $40 million?

[Warning Track Power]

None of this is likely, but if you...

 

Had a 5% chance at $0 (or minimal salary) (injury risk)

Had a 80% chance at $40M (over 8 years)

Had a 10% chance at $75M

Had a 5% chance at $100+

 

Would you pass up the $40 million?

I may be limiting my worth but when you are talking $40 million, I would not bat an eye and accept that deal immediately. For me, it would be a no brainer. Give me the financial security now and allow me to showcase what I can be and get the large contract later.

 

Put another way, Segura is a FA after 2018, or when he is finishing his age 28 season. Any extension would certainly require one or two years of FA buyout. For the sake of the argument, let's say it buys out two seasons (6 Yrs/$40mm), making Segura free after his age 30 season. Assuming he turns into what he flashed last year, at 30 he will still be a plus defensive SS with above average bat and speed. That type of FA at his age certainly would command an $80+ million deal in 2020, given Jose Reyes received 6 YR/$106mm in 2011 after his age 28 season.

 

For Segura, I think its an awfully big risk given:

 

Since June 1, 2013 - end of 2013 season Segura batted:

.261/.292/.354 4 HR 27 RBI 29 SB in 379 AB

extrapolated into a 162 game average is

.261/.292/.354 7 HR 47 RBI 50 SB

 

And has started 2014:

.236/.269/.326 1 HR 5 RBI 5 SB in 89 AB

extrapolated into a 162 game average is

.236/.269/.326 8 HR 36 RBI 36 SB

 

Or combined since June 1, 2013 is:

.235/.284/.310 5 HR 32 RBI 34 SB in 468 AB

 

Given all this, please give me $40 million today.

[monty57]

Given all this, please give me $40 million today.

 

Me too, but there will always be people who want to take the risk for the highest potential return. I think Segura fit into this category, and we'll just have to see if anything will change that. I am fairly comfortable that Melvin will not "back up the truck" for him, and any deal would be Brewer-friendly.

[HiAndTight]

When have they been killed by it?

 

Rickie Weeks is another contract that is killing us right now and the jury is still out on the Gomez extension. And while he wasn't one of our young guys the contract he gave Suppan was ridiculous given Suppan's career numbers up to that point. Plus we kind of lucked out that long term deals with McGehee and Axford never panned out despite the conversations.

 

The jury is not "out" on the Carlos Gomez extension, the Carlos Gomez extension is a steal. If he were a free agent right now, I'd be willing to bet that Boras could land him a multi-year deal with an average annual salary of at least double the 7 million that he's making this year.

 

 

Gomez isn't really the type of deal I was talking about either, but I totally agree. And I think if Gomez was a FA right now, I think you're legitimately talking about him getting three times what he's making over 6-7 years.

 

 

Even a 2012 Gomez is worth a helluva lot of money. And he's kinda exploded since then.

 

I remember when everyone was upset we sold so low on Hardy.....

[HiAndTight]

 

When have they been killed by it?

Bill Hall didn't work out.

Yet Ryan Braun certainly did, as did Lucroy, Gallardo.

 

They tried to sign Axford.

 

 

And who is to say that would have been a bad deal? We don't even know what was offered.

 

 

But that aside, you can't be hurt by a contract that wasn't signed.

[brewcrewdue80]

None of this is likely, but if you...

 

Had a 5% chance at $0 (or minimal salary) (injury risk)

Had a 80% chance at $40M (over 8 years)

Had a 10% chance at $75M

Had a 5% chance at $100+

 

Would you pass up the $40 million?

I may be limiting my worth but when you are talking $40 million, I would not bat an eye and accept that deal immediately. For me, it would be a no brainer. Give me the financial security now and allow me to showcase what I can be and get the large contract later.

 

Put another way, Segura is a FA after 2018, or when he is finishing his age 28 season. Any extension would certainly require one or two years of FA buyout. For the sake of the argument, let's say it buys out two seasons (6 Yrs/$40mm), making Segura free after his age 30 season. Assuming he turns into what he flashed last year, at 30 he will still be a plus defensive SS with above average bat and speed. That type of FA at his age certainly would command an $80+ million deal in 2020, given Jose Reyes received 6 YR/$106mm in 2011 after his age 28 season.

 

For Segura, I think its an awfully big risk given:

 

Since June 1, 2013 - end of 2013 season Segura batted:

.261/.292/.354 4 HR 27 RBI 29 SB in 379 AB

extrapolated into a 162 game average is

.261/.292/.354 7 HR 47 RBI 50 SB

 

And has started 2014:

.236/.269/.326 1 HR 5 RBI 5 SB in 89 AB

extrapolated into a 162 game average is

.236/.269/.326 8 HR 36 RBI 36 SB

 

Or combined since June 1, 2013 is:

.235/.284/.310 5 HR 32 RBI 34 SB in 468 AB

 

Given all this, please give me $40 million today.

 

 

Something isn't right with your numbers. Segura can't possible bat .235 when since June 1,2013 to end of year he batted .261 and his start of 2014 he batted .236.

.236/.261 combined>.235