Francisco's Locker Cleared Out. Traded? Released? Update 3/24: Released

[PrinceEatMeat]

‏@Todd_Rosiak 23m

Further clarity could come at first base later today, as it appears Juan Francisco's locker has been packed up in the Maryvale clubhouse.

 

Looks like Francisco has been traded or released. That means Overbay has made the team. Saw it coming but still, ugh.

[torts]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 1m

No word of any trade involving #Brewers Juan Francisco. This has the appearance of a DFA and wait-and-see situation.

[pete]

I know any sports team has a huge pool of fans and there are always a wide variety of opinions, but its weird to see the people on twitter that are excited about Overbay. I was reading one about how he doesn't strike out as he struck out. A notable one was Andy Tarnoff who runs OnMilwaukee.

[trwi7]

I know it's unlikely he reaches it, but I'll take Francisco's potential over a 37 year old Overbay.

[dacbrewers]

I know it's unlikely he reaches it, but I'll take Francisco's potential over a 37 year old Overbay.

Me Too!!! Slower and older. I hope he doesn't have a lot of errors to go with his .210 average.

[Mass Haas]

Please don't think I'm making a strictly literal comparison, it's obviously a stretch, but --

 

The Twins DFA'd David Ortiz at age 26 after 1,477 big league at-bats (58 HR's).

 

The Brewers DFA Juan Francisco at age 26 after 709 big league at-bats (32 HR's).

 

Now you can visit their combined minor league and major league numbers via the Baseball Cube site here and here.

 

In a (wink) friendlier era, Ortiz did post OPS' of .799 and .839 in his final two Minnesota seasons - numbers Francisco hasn't nearly approached (really now, what were the Twins thinking?!).

 

But, and this is a big but (in multiple ways, heh), if Francisco has indeed turned a corner in terms of plate discipline, it would be crazy for an American League team, particularly one not primed for contention -- hello, Minnesota! -- to not jump on this opportunity and hand 500 designated hitter at-bats to Juan in 2014. Even Target Field isn't going to hold him, we know that. Yeah, goodbye, Jason Kubel, it's been fun.

 

Couldn't have imagined saying this after last August and September, but letting Juan Francisco go really pains me as a Brewer fan.

[TURBO]

*sigh*

 

Can this organization ever make the right move? (over reaction, I know)

 

Why on earth would we keep Overbay over just about anyone. I'd take Francisco over "O" every single time, and I can't stand Francisco. This is bad news.

 

I can only hope that we have a trade on the horizon which brings us a legit 1B, and Overbay is released, as well as Reynolds.

 

Another year of no 1B is going to be a downer, and is inexcusable in my eyes.

 

Just curious, with Reynolds taking over 1B full time, and a fragile Ramirez manning 3B, who takes over 3B when Ramirez inevitably gets hurt? Does that mean we have Overbay starting at 1B and Reynolds at 3B? If that is true for any extended period of time, we are in big trouble.

 

*double sigh*

[MadScientist]

As a first baseman, Francisco makes a fine DH.

[MVP2110]

The fan part of me loves Overbay making the team, even if my head says it was the wrong move but imo the difference between keeping one vs the other is very minimal

[DR28]

There's gotta be trade coming... Overbay, really?????

[MVP2110]

One thing I will say is everyone has been clamoring for RRR to stop looking and basing decisions off of spring training stats, I think this is a step in the right direction at least on that front

[brewmann04]

wow is all i can say how did not juan beat out Overbay is defense the bigger issue.

[RockCoCougars]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.... Fransisco is custom made for the Japanese league. That said, he'll probably bounce around a bit in MLB baseball before he goes there.

[AdvantageSchneider]

One thing I will say is everyone has been clamoring for RRR to stop looking and basing decisions off of spring training stats, I think this is a step in the right direction at least on that front

 

Of course the only problem with that is that Overbay was just as bad or worse than Francisco last year.

 

Is this a RRR decision or a DM decision?

 

I don't think it speaks to valuing last year's stats, it speaks more to valuing gritty veterans over unproven young players.

 

I did not want Juan back on the team this year, but I too think I would rather have him than Overbay. You can maybe hope to catch a hot streak of lightning in a bottle with JF for a month or two, like we got with Yuni B last year and then hope to get an upgrade after than via trade. Overbay has a giant fork sticking out of him.

[igor67]

Defense could be a valid reason to make the call for Overbay, but his recent performance and age combined with Juan's good spring really strain that possibility.

[pete]

When Roenicke says he is or isn't considering ST stats it likely has nothing to do with the decision making process. He's providing an answer to satisfy the media.

 

One consideration he cited was Overbay's "history." I don't have to go recheck the rules of the forum to know that the language I would use to describe that isn't allowed.

 

The decision to keep him was likely largely made when Melvin called to say he had signed him. If he has 3 singles in his first 50 at bats and plays passable defense, Melvin will call the stat department into action and have some twist on the numbers that show how much better off the team is.

[Patrick425]

I'm glad. Francisco was probably one of my least favorite Brewers of all time.

[502 to Right]

My 10 year old is going to be devastated. He got a foul ball from Francisco last season and he was hoping to get it signed this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

Several things are obvious. One is Francisco's fate was sealed in September, not March. All the effort to trade or sign Loney, and then bring in two non roster guys were pretty obvious clues. All that being said, Overbay looks worse than even I suspected he was this spring and I had zero expectations after he was awful in the 2nd half last year in NY. I thought certainly they couldn't have Overbay after this horrid spring. Yes Reynolds should get most starts at 1B, and I can live with Bianchi filling in for Ramirez. Heck Bianchi has to play somewhere occasionally and with 2 second basemen only on the roster, 3rd is the most logical spot.

 

But the real issue is late in games who's going to be called on to pinch hit? Gindl's back in the minors. Bianchi (SS) and Schafer (CF) are the only backups capable of handling those key defensive spots so they are secondary PH. That leaves Overbay and whichever 2B isn't playing that day. Not good. Roster construction remains a weakness for this brain trust. If you think you've seen this before, you have. Craig Counsell was getting key PH opportunities throughout his 0 for nearly 50 streak. He was kept around a year too long.

[pete]

JB12, I don't disagree with anything you said, but I wonder if Melvin is just playing poker with Weeks and when he is moved, they plan to bring up Gindl. I'd also add that using Gennett as a PH late in games is a bad idea, at least at this stage of his career and considering all the melodrama over the position.

 

I don't want to revive the debate, but as context I'd consider myself as someone who can't stand Weeks and I think that if they're going to regularly use him and consider him the "starter" as Schroeder refers to him, they should have stuck Gennett in AAA. Thornburg might not be so good as a reliever either. Both moves seems like clumsy ways of avoiding ill feelings by players who would normally feel that they had earned a promotion.

[Thurston Fluff]

Just curious, with Reynolds taking over 1B full time, and a fragile Ramirez manning 3B, who takes over 3B when Ramirez inevitably gets hurt? Does that mean we have Overbay starting at 1B and Reynolds at 3B? If that is true for any extended period of time, we are in big trouble.

 

I looked at his stats and saw he started playing full time in 2001. I do not know if he had any sort of major injury issues before 2000 since he has three seasons of sub 100 games but since 2001 when he started playing full time he has 8 seasons playing a 142 games or more. Of the others he played at least 120 games in all but 4. I guess I just don't see that as fragile or an inevitable injury.

[TheCrew07]

I looked at his stats and saw he started playing full time in 2001. I do not know if he had any sort of major injury issues before 2000 since he has three seasons of sub 100 games but since 2001 when he started playing full time he has 8 seasons playing a 142 games or more. Of the others he played at least 120 games in all but 4. I guess I just don't see that as fragile or an inevitable injury.

 

He hurt his shoulder in 2009 as 31 year old, and while past durability is better than a history of frailty, being durable in the past is not any kind of predictor of future health, it doesn't work that way.

 

Since hurting his shoulder he's played 2 full seasons out of 5 and he's now 36 years old. I don't want to rehash the whole injury nexus thing but the gist of historical injury predictions across baseball is that once you pass the early 30s the curve starts to become exponential. Until that point every player has a 10-18% percent chance of getting injured per season but the odds become much greater with each successive season through the mid to late 30s and are additionally higher if the player has had a significant injury in his past.

 

When talking about realistic health expectations age and injury history over the player's last hand full of seasons are more important than the overall arc of the player's career. It doesn't matter if you're talking Ramirez, Marcum, or Braun... it's all the same issue. That's why so many people look at Braun's tendency to have nagging injuries all season and project him to miss significant time later in his career. I remember someone suggesting he'd likely miss a total of 2 full seasons over the life his contract which I felt was probably pretty accurate given a 13 year run (before the option), and with his suspension it seems likely he'll exceed that number now.

 

Another player often discussed before the Segura acquisition was Furcal, people wanted to acquire him to fill the organizational SS void. Similar to Ramirez when you're looking to sign that kind of player with a recent significant injury history approaching their mid 30s you not only need a plan A, but you're also going to need a plan B to play that position for a significant number of games. Since that discussion Furcal managed 87 games in 2011, 121 games in 2012, no MLB games in 2013, and is now injured again and may not be ready for the Marlins at 2B for opening day, he's the same age as Ramirez and like Aramis was very durable until a significant injury in 2008.

 

I don't mean to suggest that just because 1 guy got hurt another will experience the same fate, but I am suggesting that there needs to be a realistic expectation that the 30 somethings on the roster are likely going to have at least 1 DL trip. Especially the players in their mid to late 30s, the odds just aren't in their favor, even without a significant injury in their past. When building the roster I'm not sure you can ever just assume good health for everyday position players, but you certainly aren't able to do that for players approaching their mid 30s. Players that old are ancient by professional sport standards even though they are still young in relation to many of us. If you have that kind of guy, like a Ramirez, you need a viable plan B, some one you're thinking should be able to hold down the fort for 40+ games if necessary.

 

Ideally that player would be a prospect in AAA or AA given Ramirez age and contract status, however that's not an option in this case, or really for any position beyond the OF when discussing the Brewers' farm system. If Reynolds and/or Francisco are your plan B then basically you're counting on Ramirez to be fortunate and play 140+ games. If not, then not only is 1B worse, but 3B becomes a black hole as well, 2 positions end up being degraded instead of 1.

 

edit. Forgot to mention that when your depth at a position is another 37 year old without one skill to hang his hat on, the dominoes have the potential to fall quickly, basically the only way this season works out at the corner IF positions is if Ramirez stays healthy. Otherwise those positions have been setup to fail.

[TURBO]

Not to mention, we are talking about 2 positions that are traditionally known as offensive positions...(1B and 3B)

 

Starting Overbay and Reynolds for a long portion of time is going to kill us.

 

Ugghhh.

[torts]

Losing juan also opens up 1B after the season for halton/morris/whoever, or even this season should either get hurt or cut

[chickinbrickin]

Shaking my head at this move, now combine that with Gomez leading off and I am even more frustrated. Gomez started to get things figured out once he was removed from the leadoff spot.....