Ervin Santana to ATL(1yr/14.1 mil)

[MVP2110]

any chance we see him the opening series you think?

[fondybrewfan]

So you have to give up a draft pick and only get 1 year of Santana for $14 Million? Doesn't seem like the best decision in the world for the Braves.

[reillymcshane]

So you have to give up a draft pick and only get 1 year of Santana for $14 Million? Doesn't seem like the best decision in the world for the Braves.

If Santana pitches well the Braves can give him a qualifying offer next year and get back a comp pick if he walks. The pick wouldn't be that far off what the Braves get this year, since they draft pretty low (I think 26th). Probably around the 30-35 zone. That's still pretty good.

 

There is the chance that Santana could take the qualifying offer next year, making it a (roughly) 2-year/$29 million deal. Not a bad signing for Atlanta.

 

Atlanta could also see how Santana does, and work out an extension during the season.

 

There is the possibility that Santana has a clause prohibiting the Braves from giving him a qualifying offer, but I have not heard that.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Braves got a comp pick for McCann so they only move back like 6 spots. For a team that is trying to win now, this makes sense. No long term financial commitment, comp pick in next year's draft, and a serviceable major league starter, Santana gets to try for a big contract again next year... A win all around.

[PrinceEatMeat]

This was a necessary move for the Braves with Medlen likely headed for Tommy John, and Beachy and Minor also battling injuries.

[monty57]

The Braves got a comp pick for McCann so they only move back like 6 spots.

 

But they would have that pick regardless of this signing. They still lost a first rounder. The Braves have locked up a lot of young talent to long-term deals, but they have a pretty poor farm system. Two picks could turn that around quicker than one. When this offseason's extensions start getting expensive in a couple years, they'll probably wish they had more talent coming up from the farm.

 

I don't like giving up picks, but if you're going to give one up, I think you should at least assure yourself of 2-3 years from the player.

[RobertR]

If Medlen is down, then this is a season salvaging move. Probably a necessary one as I don't think the arrow is pointed up and they'll have their hands full with Washington.

[JohnBriggs12]

This was a move necessitated by Medlen's injury. Braves didn't have a lot of options. They might still love Lohse, but Melvin wasn't about to make that move on the eve of the season without addressing current needs and Atlanta has nothing to offer in that regard.

[reillymcshane]

The Braves got a comp pick for McCann so they only move back like 6 spots.

 

But they would have that pick regardless of this signing. They still lost a first rounder. The Braves have locked up a lot of young talent to long-term deals, but they have a pretty poor farm system. Two picks could turn that around quicker than one. When this offseason's extensions start getting expensive in a couple years, they'll probably wish they had more talent coming up from the farm.

 

I don't like giving up picks, but if you're going to give one up, I think you should at least assure yourself of 2-3 years from the player.

But if Santana is deserving of a QO this year, he has a good chance to get it next year. So they can recoup the pick by giving him the QO and getting a comp pick. Yes, it's 5-10 picks later. And yes, it's a year later. But in return you're getting Santana for a year without the long term contract risk.

 

There's a risk Santana gets hurt or stinks, and then the QO isn't viable. But as people have noted, the team expects to contend and they need the arm.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Braves got a comp pick for McCann so they only move back like 6 spots.

 

But they would have that pick regardless of this signing. They still lost a first rounder. The Braves have locked up a lot of young talent to long-term deals, but they have a pretty poor farm system. Two picks could turn that around quicker than one. When this offseason's extensions start getting expensive in a couple years, they'll probably wish they had more talent coming up from the farm.

 

I don't like giving up picks, but if you're going to give one up, I think you should at least assure yourself of 2-3 years from the player.

 

In the end, the picks wind up being a wash. The Braves had the 26th pick, they gave that up for Santana. They have the 32nd pick which they got for McCann. So they moved back four spots. Next year (barring signing a QO free agent), they will have the first round pick and almost certainly get a compensation pick for losing Santana. Evens out in the end.

[Outlander]

This is one of the reason why the compensation system needs to get changed. The good teams just get better and don't lose anything if he signs with another team next year.

[monty57]

Those saying that this was done out of necessity due to injuries are probably correct. That being the case, the Braves will probably not want to risk the possibility of his accepting a qualifying offer next season, so they'll give up the pick in order to help their chances of winning this season. If they wanted to pay him next year, they would have signed him to a two-year deal, and after getting stuck this year, Santana would be dumb not to take the QO next year. Odds are Santana will be an unrestricted FA at season's end.

 

If that's the case, it's not a "win-win," it' s a "we have to do this even though we don't want to" deal. Probably the best-case scenario for one of those players stuck in the limbo created by the qualifying offer rule that the players association is trying to get rid of.

[TheCrew07]

In the end, the picks wind up being a wash. The Braves had the 26th pick, they gave that up for Santana. They have the 32nd pick which they got for McCann. So they moved back four spots. Next year (barring signing a QO free agent), they will have the first round pick and almost certainly get a compensation pick for losing Santana. Evens out in the end.

 

That's only true if every draft is the same, which they aren't. This 2014 draft is shaping up to be pretty extraordinary from a pitching standpoint like 2011 was.

[brewcrewdue80]

Like Monty said, I doubt Atl, would extend the QO after this year. It's one thing for Santana to turn it down the first time and to turn away playing for KC. But being a part of Atl's organization on a team very capable to win 90games? Playing in a Pitcher's ballpark? If I'm Santana, I'd gladly accept every QO Atl sends me. The other thing, is that Atlanta's rotation was very solid on paper with Minor, Medlen, Teheren, Beachy, and Wood. Bringing back Santana gives you 6 Pitchers for 5 spots. The upgrade of Santana over maybe Wood is small. But next QO I'd guess will be 15mil next year maybe 15.5mil. Vs. the 1mil for Wood? Not worth it.

 

But who knows? Atlanta's staff with Beachy, Minor, and now Medlen they are fragile and another one could go down this year and leave an open rotation spot to fit Santana again next year.

 

Overall Atl loses the 26th pick which the history on BRef has it at 44% ever playing in MLB. 123.9 WAR among 22players. But take away Alan Trammel's 70.3WAR you're left with a Career WAR avg of 2.55 per player. I would say Santana can exceed that this year alone pitching in Atl.

[jerichoholicninja]

I see no reason for Atlanta not to give him a QO next season. If he declines, they get a pick. If he accepts it, it's only a one year deal again and allows them to trade a young pitcher for a younger pitcher or fill a hole.

[logan82]

In the end, the picks wind up being a wash. The Braves had the 26th pick, they gave that up for Santana. They have the 32nd pick which they got for McCann. So they moved back four spots. Next year (barring signing a QO free agent), they will have the first round pick and almost certainly get a compensation pick for losing Santana. Evens out in the end.

 

That's only true if every draft is the same, which they aren't. This 2014 draft is shaping up to be pretty extraordinary from a pitching standpoint like 2011 was.

The compensation picks are also after the first round if I remember correctly.

[reillymcshane]

I see no reason for Atlanta not to give him a QO next season. If he declines, they get a pick. If he accepts it, it's only a one year deal again and allows them to trade a young pitcher for a younger pitcher or fill a hole.

I totally agree. If Santana pitches well enough to get a QO next season, the Braves would be crazy not to offer it.

 

Even if Santana accepts the offer, it's a good deal for Atlanta. There's no long term obligation. And the worst thing that happens is they trade him - or another pitcher - for other assets.

[TheCrew07]

Overall Atl loses the 26th pick which the history on BRef has it at 44% ever playing in MLB. 123.9 WAR among 22players. But take away Alan Trammel's 70.3WAR you're left with a Career WAR avg of 2.55 per player. I would say Santana can exceed that this year alone pitching in Atl.

 

I understand what you were trying to do and your larger point, but taking out the best case scenario is hardly a statistically valid principle in this case because there is no way to eliminate the absolute worst case, because everyone who didn't make it to MLB is equally bad.

[fondybrewfan]

Of course if Santana doesn't want to be in this position again next year he may have required that ATL agree not to offer him the QO next year before he agreed to sign with them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the Braves make the postseason this year with Santana's help, and they get Medlen back healthy next year - them losing a pick will be worth it, whether or not they'd get a comp pick back for potentially losing Santana next season.

 

For a team like Atlanta that has a long track record of developing pitching, this is a necessary move to contend at the MLB level, and their farm system can easily handle losing a pick. For Milwaukee, this would be the equivalent of losing Peralta right now due to injury. IMO the Brewers couldn't make a knee-jerk signing like this to fill a void at the MLB level, because their farm system is desperate for talent that a first round draft pick can provide right now. It would be like taking the rudder off a rusty ship and using it as a patch to weld onto a leaky seam. It temporarily keeps the ship from sinking, but as an organization you're left listing about with less ability to change course for the long run.

[logan82]

For Milwaukee, this would be the equivalent of losing Peralta right now due to injury. IMO the Brewers couldn't make a knee-jerk signing like this to fill a void at the MLB level, because their farm system is desperate for talent that a first round draft pick can provide right now. It would be like taking the rudder off a rusty ship and using it as a patch to weld onto a leaky seam. It temporarily keeps the ship from sinking, but as an organization you're left listing about with less ability to change course for the long run.

Sort of like they did last year by signing Lohse.

[RobertR]

I don't see what's so controversial about a team deciding that contending is worth giving up a low first rounder. Most low first rounders don't make a significant impact. I believe that we've gotten to the point where the first rounder might be overvalued a bit. Frankly, I wonder if we're underrating scouting and instruction vs. an obsession with drafting position.

 

Especially since there's good reason to believe this will work out for Atlanta. They did make the playoffs last year. And they'll have stiff competition this year.

 

Heck, even as it is, I think Atlanta has come back to the pack which makes the goal of the Brewers making the playoffs a little less daunting. Washington, Los Angeles, St. Louis will obviously be the favorites, but Atlanta, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, maybe Arizona, and maybe the Brewers doesn't seem that daunting of a group to compete with for 2 spots.