Would You Extend Gallardo Now?

[Warning Track Power]

While trying to determine who the real Yovani Gallardo is right now, the 2008 -2012 version or the 2013 version, I got to thinking if the Brewers could extend him right now, would they and should they. My thinking about this is that the best and cheapest time to extend Yo would be this year prior to him pitching like he did in the 2008-2012 seasons. Of course there is the risk that comes along with that. Yo may end up being the pitcher he was for his first 19 starts in 2013 (4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) or he may end up being the pitcher he was in his final 12 starts (3.21 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP).

 

Yo is currently signed for this season for $11.25 million with a team option for next season at $13 million, so 2 years $24.25 million. He would hit FA right before his age 30 season. I doubt he would take less than the $13 million he would make in 2015, so the real question is would you extend Gallardo at the Garza contract AAV of $13 million per year at 4 years $52 million or 3 year $39 million?

 

I know his peripheral stats show his declining fastball speed and inability to consistently get his curve over for a strike and that is a substantial risk for the Brewers to make an investment if this proves true moving forward. However, could it have been his WBC participation, his mother dying and his drunken driving arrest early in the season that weighed on him and caused this blip? I don't know.

 

Keeping in mind that after 2015 Lohse, Weeks, Ramirez salaries are all off of the books and the Brewers don't have that Gerrit Cole-type prospect coming, I might be inclined to entertain a contract like this for Yo. Garza, Nelson, Thornburg are the only ones who are currently in the system that look like solid candidates for the rotation post-2015, with Hellweg, Jungmann and Bradley still possibilities.

 

An extension would never be cheaper than today. I don't know what the answer is but it's worth discussing.

[TheCrew07]

No, I wouldn't extend him, and it doesn't have much to do with his declining velocity or performance drop-off last season. I wouldn't extend most any pitcher who's 28 years old or older, I'd much rather flip them for prospects and recycle that position.

 

If we can get 7-8 relatively healthy years out of a pitcher I'm will to chalk that up as a major victory and move on, I'm not looking to capture every single productive season from every player that we develop. Especially pitchers, as one significant injury can be career altering or ending... if we get them through to the end of their prime statistically and I'm willing to move on, even if they are still under contract, which is why I'm so big on buying out FA years. If you can get 8 years of production out of a player and then flip him for a younger version of similar talent you never have a hole that needs replacing.

 

I'd rather move on from a player a year or two too soon than be stuck with him and his contract when his performance finally drops off. It's not just a baseball philosophy, it's how I view professional sports in general. It started with my Red Wings in hockey in the late 90s, they got very old and very top heavy way too fast before the strike, then it happened with the Packers, and now it's happened with the Brewers. Over time I've just developed the theory that for any organization in any sport to stay relevant over a large number of years the talent has to be continually cycled. I don't buy into any strategy which is framed around "windows", I think that's a way too simplistic a view.

 

I also think that window strategies are the primary reason "blowing it all up" becomes necessary, because moving assets around purely for today always has significant costs on the backside, when dealing with opportunity costs there really isn't a "win/win". You can win today, maybe tomorrow, but eventually you're going to end up shorthanded...

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not sure I'd pick up his $13 million option for 2015. At least we'll have this year's performance to base that on. I think their focus should be on extending Peralta, and perhaps Estrada assuming both perform well this season. There's a pretty significant risk that from 30 on, Gallardo's career path matches someone like Aaron Harang.

 

Gallardo is a guy who you might benefit from giving a qualifying offer to after 2015. Maybe he'll take it, so you have him for another year, perhaps at a slightly inflated amount. If he doesn't he'll have draft pick compensation tied to him. But no long term commitment.

[brewcrewdue80]

No I would not extend Gallardo. He never stepped up and became that dependable 7ip+ guy when needed. Instead he'd throw in that bad timed 4ip shelling when the team needed 7-8. The team has Peralta/Garza with Thornburg/Smith/and Jungmann to be rear of the rotation guys. And there's still always the trade opportunity to acquire a #2/3 to replace Gallardo/Lohse. Gomez and Davis should he prove his bat or Gallardo/Lohse themselves should we have another 6win month in the first half this year.

 

It would have been nice if Melvin jumped on the phone with Arizona and acquired Matt Davidson or Chris Owings in trade for Gallardo prior to Davidson being traded away.

 

But again, no on extending Gallardo. I just have a feeling that 1, he's going to have a high asking price due to his past and not his recent...especially since he finished fairly well to end last year. I think the Brewers are in a good seat with having to choose between the 13mil option next year or to let him walk via FA. You have all year to figure where you stand with Yo. You pick up his option(meaning he performed to a strong #3/borderline #2 this year) and have to believe then he's a QO worthy after 2015....if that even exists then.

 

I think based on Yo's 13mil option that an extension would begin with 13 mil or more for 2016-2018. I can't see Yo willing to take a pay decrease especially in today's binge spending. Can't take on 13mil/yr Yo of 2013 for additional years 2016 and beyond, not at this time.

[JohnBriggs12]

If he's good this year you pay him $13 million for 2015. If he's good in 2015, extend him a qualifying offer. With draft compensation tied to him, his market price will be diminished, and in anticipation of that he could take the QO.

 

I don't see him getting to the level were draft compensation wouldn't be an issue for teams interested in him. So why guarantee him that or more now?

[igor67]

Age and performance all point towards a high risk of a complete blow-up so I see no reason under almost any team philosophy to extend him. The QO route if he goes well has validity as would trading him.

[harrydalton]

No, I would not.

 

To me he's a #3 starter that wouldn't be hard to replace at much lower $$.

[chadomac]

Absolutely not, given the fact that we finally (hopefully) have some young arms ready to take spots in the rotation over the next couple of years. We have gotten the best innings he's ever going to pitch out of him. I agree with everyone that said to give him a qualifying offer if he produces in 2014, but a multi-year deal is out of the question. And I'm willing to bet the Brewers brass feels the same way at this point.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Nope. Already got money tied up in Garza now, and I just don't like Gallardo's performance trend.

[sheetskout]

For me, velocity is EVERYTHING involving Gallardo. And I would not extend him at this specific point in time. Should he show the velocity we've seen a year-and-a-half ago and returns to a 200k pitcher under 30, the situation changes completely.

 

I pretty much agree that it'll probably play out as he's either worth the option or not, and if so we'll try to get FA compensation from it as said previously.

[RockCoCougars]

Absolutely not. If we see the 2013 Gallardo again this season, I don't think that you pick up the option either.

[Invader3K]

I'm in the "No" camp. Too much risk for the Brewers and not much upside at this point. Hopefully he comes out of the gate pitching well and can be traded if the team is out of it come July.

[Warning Track Power]

We seem to have a consensus on no...however if he pitches like the Yo of 2008 - 2012 in 2014, doesn't that make him worth extending? I think TC07 is the only who addressed this by saying he would rather get rid of a player too early than too late. Extending Yo at $13m for 3 or 4 seasons, provided he shows in 2014 and 2015, that the first part of 2013 was an aberration, doesn't seem at all to be a bad move to me especially considering the lack of stud arms in the Brewers system. What am I missing?

[The stache]

Velocity dropping. Inconsistent. His high pitch count often means he can't make it into the 6th or 7th the way a dependable starter should. And then there's the DWI. Really bad judgement. All warning signs.

 

Here's what I'm hoping our rotation will be in 2015:

 

Garza

Lohse

Peralta

Nelson

Thornburg

 

And beyond that:

 

Garza

Peralta

Nelson

Thornburg

Jungman

 

That's a rotation I could be happy with. If Hellweg can get his control down, he could be a hell of a closer. He's got the nasty factor, and a fastball that intimidates. The job appears to be Henderson's for the near future. But he's 32 by season's end. I'd like to start preparing somebody to take over for him in a few years. We also have Estrada, who is 31 in July, and Will Smith in the mix.

[kalle8]

if i was DM i never would.

but as a fan, i always have in the back of my mind (heart) the romantic thing of having a player spend the whole career in a brewers' jersey.

[And That]

At this very second? No. However, the Brewers have a year to think about it given his 2015 option. He just turned 28, so it's not like he's far along the downswing of his career, and he's always been heralded as having clean as clean can be mechanics. I mean, Estrada is turning 31 in July and people (myself included) still think he might finally break out.

 

If Gallardo pitches well this year and his velocity bounces back a little bit, I'd be amenable to a 2-3 year extension which would void the 2015 option. As long as it is at a team-friendly AAV, say $9-10 mil a year. Would he go for that though? No idea.

 

I think the Brewers would actually willingly go to $12m+ AAV over 4 years if he pitches decently in 2014, in a deal similar to Garza's. I wouldn't be in love with that (unless all of the sudden Gallardo is throwing 94 and has a 2.50 ERA), but I don't think it would be a terrible thing, either. I just don't trust that the Brewers would be able to extract equal value in a trade involving Gallardo, especially if he's only signed to an option year.

[logan82]

We seem to have a consensus on no...however if he pitches like the Yo of 2008 - 2012 in 2014, doesn't that make him worth extending? I think TC07 is the only who addressed this by saying he would rather get rid of a player too early than too late. Extending Yo at $13m for 3 or 4 seasons, provided he shows in 2014 and 2015, that the first part of 2013 was an aberration, doesn't seem at all to be a bad move to me especially considering the lack of stud arms in the Brewers system. What am I missing?

If he pitches like he did in 2008-2012 why would he sign for only $13m per.

[Warning Track Power]

We seem to have a consensus on no...however if he pitches like the Yo of 2008 - 2012 in 2014, doesn't that make him worth extending? I think TC07 is the only who addressed this by saying he would rather get rid of a player too early than too late. Extending Yo at $13m for 3 or 4 seasons, provided he shows in 2014 and 2015, that the first part of 2013 was an aberration, doesn't seem at all to be a bad move to me especially considering the lack of stud arms in the Brewers system. What am I missing?

If he pitches like he did in 2008-2012 why would he sign for only $13m per.

Let's assume Yo pitches like he did from 2008 - 2012 in 2014 & 2015. He would have a similar line to 2008-2012:

 

3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 & 112 ERA+

 

Garza's previous 4 seasons before signing his 4 year $52 million ($13AAV) at 30 :

 

3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 & 107 ERA+

 

Yo also becomes a FA at 30. Add the QO to Yo and I have to imagine Yo may go through what Jimenez and Santana went through which may open him to an extension at ~$13 million AAV.

 

I don't see the problem with extending him if he shows he is still the pitcher he was prior to the first half of 2013 in 2014.

[monty57]

The Brewers have shown the ability to sign "second tier" talent on the free agent market (Lohse, Garza, Ramirez), and while this would be an extension, what you are suggesting would equate to a "second tier" free agent contract. The problem is that Gallardo did not pitch like a "second tier" player last year, so you are hoping to sign a guy who pitched like a "third tier" player to a "second tier" contract in hopes that he regains the form which never really put him in the "first tier" category to begin with.

 

Your potential upside (the money you'd "save" if you extend him and he does return to form vs what he'd get in a free agent deal in the same scenario) is probably minimal, as Garza is a reasonable comp for "good Gallardo" and his free agent deal is the one you're mirroring in the proposed extension. Your potential downside is that you guarantee $52MM over four years to a guy who is not one of your five best starters, and therefore would not even be in the rotation if not for his contract. Assuming the competition would likely be pre-arby (Nelson, Thornberg, etc), that's $12.5MM per year that could be allocated elsewhere.

[danzig6767]

For me, his velocity drop is troubling, but it's also frustrating that seven years into his big league career, Yovani still hasn't been able to improve his command enough to both consistently pitch deeper into games and walk fewer batters.

 

Look at a guy like Lohse. One reason he was able to become a better pitcher from his younger days is he simply throws more strikes. Less free passes meant fewer baserunners on to potentially end up scoring runs.

 

Pitchers can still be very effective in the velocity range Gallardo now looks to be in, but command becomes more important. Getting ahead in the count and not walking a lot of hitters gets more important for any pitchers who see their strikeout rates decline.

[SoupTown]

I have this great hope that that 'Classic' last year really took its toll on Gallardo. I was trying to find some splits on MPH, but I could not. So, we pretty much have Yo going from a 92.6 mph ave fastall pitcher to 91.7 in 2012 then 90.7 in 2013. Also his secondary pitches are 1 to 2 mph slower. This is what interests me. I have see guys lose MPH on the fastball, but oddly pick up or not lose on changes and cutters, etc.

 

So, we really have Yo as 1) tired or 2) falling apart. I sure hope it was 'tired'. I put this, because he was much better after his two week 'rest' last year, IIRC.

 

Interestingly, I read a wee article 'somewhere' that you can judge if a pitcher is going to have a good year by his Spring velocity. Mind you, what is Yo 'used to' showing in Spring.

 

My hope, really, like all yours, is that Yo has a great year and we pick up the option. And the next year we offer the qualifying offer. But if he is 2) falling apart, we will know quick smart and then you just hope he can smoke and mirrors to a 'decent' era this year before you let him walk

[logan82]

We seem to have a consensus on no...however if he pitches like the Yo of 2008 - 2012 in 2014, doesn't that make him worth extending? I think TC07 is the only who addressed this by saying he would rather get rid of a player too early than too late. Extending Yo at $13m for 3 or 4 seasons, provided he shows in 2014 and 2015, that the first part of 2013 was an aberration, doesn't seem at all to be a bad move to me especially considering the lack of stud arms in the Brewers system. What am I missing?

If he pitches like he did in 2008-2012 why would he sign for only $13m per.

Let's assume Yo pitches like he did from 2008 - 2012 in 2014 & 2015. He would have a similar line to 2008-2012:

 

3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 & 112 ERA+

 

Garza's previous 4 seasons before signing his 4 year $52 million ($13AAV) at 30 :

 

3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 & 107 ERA+

 

Yo also becomes a FA at 30. Add the QO to Yo and I have to imagine Yo may go through what Jimenez and Santana went through which may open him to an extension at ~$13 million AAV.

 

I don't see the problem with extending him if he shows he is still the pitcher he was prior to the first half of 2013 in 2014.

Assuming no injuries in the next couple years for Gallardo is Garza a good comp? Garza has missed a good chunk of time the last couple years which I think drove his price down.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garza's under contract through 2017 with a vesting option for 2018. Do the Brewers really want to lock themselves in with Gallardo on a deal that overlaps the Garza contract or is that money better spent buying out option years and one or two FA years of the guy on the staff with the real upside, Peralta?

 

Gallardo's had a nice string of years, but if he's tied to a QO, his price goes down just as it has with Jimenez and Ervin Santana. So there's a chance that he accepts a QO for at least one year, or if not, he brings a draft pick back. Either way, they avoid long term commitment for multiple pitchers over 30.

[Warning Track Power]

Assuming no injuries in the next couple years for Gallardo is Garza a good comp? Garza has missed a good chunk of time the last couple years which I think drove his price down.

I think so. I think Garza's injury history drove his price down, while his lack of a QO drove his price back up. Having said that, I expected Garza to get $15 AAV.

[logan82]

So you think Gallardo will be looking at 4/$60m? I wouldn't hold you to that with expected inflation of player salaries.