Opening Day Starter / Rotation

[TooLiveBrew]

Peralta's second half differed from his first half due to luck. His FIP in the first half was 4.32 and in the second it was 4.26. He K'd more batters but started give up a bunch more fly balls leading to home runs.

 

ZiPs FIPs projections:

 

Garza: 3.65

Estrada: 3.75

Gallardo: 3.75

Lohse: 4.09

Smith: 4.10

Peralta: 4.36

 

Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense.

While I agree that this kind of perspective is important to consider, Peralta's 'eye test' for the second half was really strong. It didn't look accidental that he was having success, and I don't expect him to do anything but build upon that.

[chickinbrickin]

Peralta is below everyone else and should be in Nashville with Smith in the rotation instead.

 

Really?? Peralta has the best stuff on the entire staff in my opinion and is poised for a breakout season. From June 1st on, he posted a 3.48 ERA over 21 starts, including 2 complete games. How is that not worthy of a rotation spot?

This is exactly how I feel about Wily. I think we're going to see big things from him this season.

 

Add me to the list as well. Wily in AAA??? He is the highest upside pitcher in the organization, and his performance last year showed just that. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up the Brewers best pitcher this year.

[TURBO]

 

Add me to the list as well. Wily in AAA??? He is the highest upside pitcher in the organization, and his performance last year showed just that. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up the Brewers best pitcher this year.

 

^ This

 

I expect big things from Wily, and if this is the year he figures it all out, he could be our best starter this season!

[brewcrewdue80]

Agreed. Peralta will be one of out top 3 pitchers this season. Anybody that says that about him totally missed his second half of last season.

 

Peralta's second half differed from his first half due to luck. His FIP in the first half was 4.32 and in the second it was 4.26. He K'd more batters but started give up a bunch more fly balls leading to home runs.

 

ZiPs FIPs projections:

 

Garza: 3.65

Estrada: 3.75

Gallardo: 3.75

Lohse: 4.09

Smith: 4.10

Peralta: 4.36

 

Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense.

 

Does the Zips FIPs projections consider Smith as a full-time 32 start Pitcher? Or as a Bullpen guy who seen success last year in it? Because imo it is projecting him in the bullpen vs Peralta as a SP. Smith thus far in his career has a high HR/9 rate. and he's now in a HR friendly ballpark.

 

The other thing is, how do you say take Peralta out of the rotation after he gave the team 32Starts last year? Smith hasn't show any of that thus far in his career. On that note alone, the 4.10 vs 4.36 ERA Lefty vs Righty I'm going with the guy who has been through a 32 Start season already vs. the "Suggested FIP difference of .26ERA" and Lefty who's turn as a Starter 2years ago was as a 5+ERA guy with unappealing bb/k rates.

 

I'm a big fan of Smith don't read me wrong both he and Peralta are young and I hope/figure stand to improve this year and for the next few years. If/when an injury happens, I suspect Smith will get a chance to start especially if its against a Lefty filled lineup. I'll let him gain more experience starting that way to decide how to use him down the road.

 

But Peralta in AAA for? The guy was 4th best in velocity in all of Baseball among Starters last year. And based on what I know, Velocity is a big plus that tends to lessen as one ages....So please let's use all of Peralta's Plus Velocity while he still has it!

[StearnsFTW]

Agreed. Peralta will be one of out top 3 pitchers this season. Anybody that says that about him totally missed his second half of last season.

 

Peralta's second half differed from his first half due to luck. His FIP in the first half was 4.32 and in the second it was 4.26. He K'd more batters but started give up a bunch more fly balls leading to home runs.

 

ZiPs FIPs projections:

 

Garza: 3.65

Estrada: 3.75

Gallardo: 3.75

Lohse: 4.09

Smith: 4.10

Peralta: 4.36

 

Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense.

 

I agree with this, although in a perfect world I would've just not signed Garza and let both Peralta/Thornburg and Smith start.

[Eye Black]

Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense.

This would make more sense if the Brewers had shifted focus toward building for the future over the past 9 months, similar to what the White Sox have been doing. Since the focus has been restocking a potential wild card contender, every win matters for this team and Peralta is likely to be more valuable than those who would replace his starts. It is also possible that Peralta will add more value to this year's team then he would to the 2019 version of the Brewers anyway based on the fact they have very little in the way of organizational impact talent under 25 years old.

[joepepsi]

Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense.

This would make more sense if the Brewers had shifted focus toward building for the future over the past 9 months, similar to what the White Sox have been doing. Since the focus has been restocking a potential wild card contender, every win matters for this team and Peralta is likely to be more valuable than those who would replace his starts. It is also possible that Peralta will add more value to this year's team then he would to the 2019 version of the Brewers anyway based on the fact they have very little in the way of organizational impact talent under 25 years old.

It still would not make sense. If the Brewers chose building for the future the past 9 months they would never have signed Garza, would have entertained offers for Yo and Lohse, and penciled in Smith, Thornburg, and Peralta for the 2014 rotation.

[HiAndTight]

Agreed. Peralta will be one of out top 3 pitchers this season. Anybody that says that about him totally missed his second half of last season.

 

Peralta's second half differed from his first half due to luck. His FIP in the first half was 4.32 and in the second it was 4.26. He K'd more batters but started give up a bunch more fly balls leading to home runs.

 

ZiPs FIPs projections:

 

Garza: 3.65

Estrada: 3.75

Gallardo: 3.75

Lohse: 4.09

Smith: 4.10

Peralta: 4.36

 

Given that putting Peralta in AAA can buy another year of his prime, Smith pitching allows for a left hander in the rotation, and it allows for both Thornburg and Peralta remain stretched out to come to Milwaukee when a starter goes down; Peralta in Nashville makes perfect sense.

 

 

First of all, this is the second thread in a row in which we're getting pretty far ahead of ourselves in terms of controlling a player for an additional year. That was the logic for making a trade for Wang in another one(another year of team control).

 

Peralta is 24 years old, is coming off a season in which he was pretty successful for his first full season in my opinion, and we're going to move him back down to AAA now for a completely unproven lefty that we just traded for who had an ERA around 5.48 with a 1.63 WHIP and only 6 K/9 IP.

 

And projections don't mean a whole lot to me for older players, but they mean almost nothing to me when you're talking about a young pitcher like Peralta and a whole lot less when you're talking about a reliever who you'd be moving to starter switching leagues.

 

That said, I like Smith a lot. And I think if history holds, he'll have an opportunity to start when Estrada or Garza goes down for a stretch.

[Baldkin]

 

Peralta is 24 years old, is coming off a season in which he was pretty successful for his first full season in my opinion, and we're going to move him back down to AAA now for a completely unproven lefty that we just traded for who had an ERA around 5.48 with a 1.63 WHIP and only 6 K/9 IP.

 

And projections don't mean a whole lot to me for older players, but they mean almost nothing to me when you're talking about a young pitcher like Peralta and a whole lot less when you're talking about a reliever who you'd be moving to starter switching leagues.

 

That said, I like Smith a lot. And I think if history holds, he'll have an opportunity to start when Estrada or Garza goes down for a stretch.

 

1) Smith put up better numbers as a 23 year old in AAA then Wily did. 3.03 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 4.2 K/BB compared to 4.33 ERA, 8.8 BB/9 and 1.8 K/BB.

2) Smith does not have problems with walking everyone.

[brewtank34]

One word. Estrada!!!!!

 

Ace of the staff.

[Patrick425]

While I'm happier with the Brewers starting rotation and depth in pitching than I was a year ago at this time my excitement is tempered by the fact that I believe 3 of the better pitching rotations in baseball are in our division. Pitt, StL, and Cincy.....I especially like Cincy's pitching staff. If the offense stays healthy it is just as good and probably better than any of the teams in the division, but I'm a believer that, in the end, it's pitching that makes the difference between contenders and pretenders. The Brewers have the 4th best pitching staff in the division imho.

[Warning Track Power]

While I'm happier with the Brewers starting rotation and depth in pitching than I was a year ago at this time my excitement is tempered by the fact that I believe 3 of the better pitching rotations in baseball are in our division. Pitt, StL, and Cincy.....I especially like Cincy's pitching staff. If the offense stays healthy it is just as good and probably better than any of the teams in the division, but I'm a believer that, in the end, it's pitching that makes the difference between contenders and pretenders. The Brewers have the 4th best pitching staff in the division imho.

What makes you think the Pirates staff is better than the Brewers? Going #1-#5 based on MLB.com's depth chart:

 

#1 Liriano vs. Lohse

#2 Cole vs. Garza

#3 Morton vs. Gallardo

#4 Locke vs. Peralta

#5 Rodriguez vs. Estrada

 

I think the Brewers are better at #3-#5, a push at #1 and worse at #2. Liriano had a good 2010 and 2013 mixed with pretty awful 2009, 2011 & 2012. Cole is going to be a beast no doubt. I'll gladly take Gallardo, Peralta and Estrada over Morton, Locke and Wandy. I think the Pirates in general are worse on paper than the Brewers going into 2014 and I like the Brewers O much better as well.

 

As for the Reds and Cardinals pitching staff, you will find no argument from me there.

[jerichoholicninja]

With Burnett gone, the Pirates rotation is an unproven Cole and a bunch of guys coming off of career years. It certainly is possible that the Pirates' rotation has a better year than the Brewers, but they more than likely won't.

[TheCrew07]

It's not how you start the season rotation wise, it's how you finish.

 

Chances are that Estrada and Garza will end up on the DL at some point while Pitt will be plugging Jameson Taillon into their rotation. Any injury weakens the Brewers while adding Taillon only strengthens the Pirates (unless it's Cole he's replacing).

 

I would potentially take Cole/Taillon over any 1/2 punch the Brewers could put together in the post season. If we're talking just regular season, I can definitely see an argument that with the addition of Garza the Brewers will be able to field a better rotation for 162 games this year, but I wouldn't call it a lock.

 

The problem in the short and long term here is that every other team in the division has added or will have the ability to add quality young starting pitching to their rotation, while we just get older. Continuing to use the Pirates as an example, we just aren't going be able to add talented pitchers like Cole, Taillon, and possibly Glasnow in successive years... we can add a guy like Kingham, I think Nelson compares favorably to him, but we just don't have the same upside.

 

For the Brewers assuming that none of the older pitchers slide and maintain last year's performance the key here is going to be health, then the next big key will be how well the BP holds up. On paper the Brewers look to have a middle of the pack pitching staff. I think the Dodgers, Reds, Cards, and Nationals are clearly better, I could see the Brewers as high as #5 if things go exceedingly well all season to #9 or #10 if they go the other way. Atlanta is in a rough spot, but if healthy they would clearly be better than the Brewers as well, so that's some good fortune out of the gate for the Crew.

[sveumrules]

Any talk of trying to game the system for an extra year of team control for a pitcher is silly, imo. Position players, sure. Hold them down a couple months and get an extra year of team control. If a pitcher can get guys out at the Major League level, he should be pitching there. Who knows if any pitcher's arm will still be attached to his body six or seven years from now.

[Warning Track Power]

I would potentially take Cole/Taillon over any 1/2 punch the Brewers could put together in the post season. If we're talking just regular season, I can definitely see an argument that with the addition of Garza the Brewers will be able to field a better rotation for 162 games this year, but I wouldn't call it a lock.

Nor would I. Rather, if I were to have to choose today as to which rotation I would prefer to have on March 19, 2014, I would choose the Brewers. Like you said though, Cole & Taillon in a 5 game series vs. 2 of Gallardo, Garza & Lohse makes it a different story but in terms of SP depth #1 - #5, I think the Brewers have the Pirates beat. Additionally, this doesn't count the Brewers offense versus the Pirates offense, where I think the Brewers are significantly better as well.

[TheCrew07]

Thinking about this some more if Peralta continues his yearly progression he could be a difference maker, regardless of what happens with the rest of the staff. I gotta believe he's better than a 6.3 K/9 guy which he showed last year, he had similar dip making the initial jump to AA. I've never been a huge Wily supporter, more cautiously optimistic over the years, but his progression (or lack there of) this season may be the most important determining factor. An ascending Peralta and healthy Garza could be pretty formidable, I understand that's a big IF, but again, that's kind of the issue with this entire team. We have so many unknowns performance and health wise all over the 25 man roster that it's hard to make any statement with an adequate degree of certainty.

 

What can we realistically expect from Gomez, Segura, Davis, Gennett, and Weeks? What about Braun? Ramirez? Estrada is prone to the big inning and has trouble staying healthy, Garza has health issues, Lohse is a year older, Gallardo has been trending negatively stuff wise for years and last year his stats basically matched his current physical stuff. Outside of Garza none of those guys are locks to regularly pitch into the 7th inning, let alone beyond, which puts more pressure on the pen. This might be the single most fascinating year we've faced given the possible extremes for the team, there's certainly no shortage of story lines or intrigue to follow.

 

The one thing we do have is legitimate depth, being able to plug any number of starting pitchers from AAA into the rotation without the expectation of much drop off, but that's more of a commentary on the MLB staff than the upside of those guys in AAA. I also like our depth from a relief aspect, I really like the potential bullpen additions waiting in the minors, I actually think we have some potential difference makers for the pen in the minors. The problem of course is that the impact of relievers is severely limited by the number of innings they can pitch, but if we run into "tired arms" we should be able to DL a guy or two and bring in a productive substitute from the minors. Which made me think about Wang, if he makes the roster and the Brewers decide to keep him, RR has to be willing to use him on a regular basis, I just don't see the Brewers being able to make it running a pitcher short in the bullpen all season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thinking about this some more if Peralta continues his yearly progression he could be a difference maker, regardless of what happens with the rest of the staff. I gotta believe he's better than a 6.3 K/9 guy which he showed last year, he had similar dip making the initial jump to AA. I've never been a huge Wily supporter, more cautiously optimistic over the years, but his progression (or lack there of) this season may be the most important determining factor. An ascending Peralta and healthy Garza could be pretty formidable, I understand that's a big IF, but again, that's kind of the issue with this entire team. We have so many unknowns performance and health wise all over the 25 man roster that it's hard to make any statement with an adequate degree of certainty.

 

What can we realistically expect from Gomez, Segura, Davis, Gennett, and Weeks? What about Braun? Ramirez? Estrada is prone to the big inning and has trouble staying healthy, Garza has health issues, Lohse is a year older, Gallardo has been trending negatively stuff wise for years and last year his stats basically matched his current physical stuff. Outside of Garza none of those guys are locks to regularly pitch into the 7th inning, let alone beyond, which puts more pressure on the pen. This might be the single most fascinating year we've faced given the possible extremes for the team, there's certainly no shortage of story lines or intrigue to follow.

 

The one thing we do have is legitimate depth, being able to plug any number of starting pitchers from AAA into the rotation without the expectation of much drop off, but that's more of a commentary on the MLB staff than the upside of those guys in AAA. I also like our depth from a relief aspect, I really like the potential bullpen additions waiting in the minors, I actually think we have some potential difference makers for the pen in the minors. The problem of course is that the impact of relievers is severely limited by the number of innings they can pitch, but if we run into "tired arms" we should be able to DL a guy or two and bring in a productive substitute from the minors. Which made me think about Wang, if he makes the roster and the Brewers decide to keep him, RR has to be willing to use him on a regular basis, I just don't see the Brewers being able to make it running a pitcher short in the bullpen all season.

I posted this earlier in this thread... and I get the concerns about him not being super efficient, but Gallardo pitched at least 6 innings in 22 of his 31 starts last season. I also think Peralta will be pitching significantly deeper into games this season; I'm counting on his ability to get groundballs contributing to that in a big way.

 

I think our staff has the ability to be the surprise of the NL this season, but how likely that is to happen is obviously up for debate.

[brewcrewdue80]

I posted this earlier in this thread... and I get the concerns about him not being super efficient, but Gallardo pitched at least 6 innings in 22 of his 31 starts last season.

 

 

Crew put 7th inning in which case Gallardo only pitched in the 7th inning or later 11 times out of 31. 6ip is vanilla. Still 9outs you force your bullpen to get. 7th ip starts makes it 6outs(not including extras) That's 1 more RP to get a day off in those games.

[torts]

It's not how you start the season rotation wise, it's how you finish.

 

Chances are that Estrada and Garza will end up on the DL at some point while Pitt will be plugging Jameson Taillon into their rotation. Any injury weakens the Brewers while adding Taillon only strengthens the Pirates (unless it's Cole he's replacing).

 

in the event of an injury to the rotation in the first part of the season for the pirates I can tell you they will fill that hole with Volquez before they bring up Taillon. Taillon wont see MLB time unless they have multiple SP injuries early in the year. The pirates are paying Volquez 5 million dollars, he will be in that rotation for most the season. Thats pretty much whats being talked about here in Pittsburgh.

[djoctagone]

i still question why all five starting pitchers need to be on the big league roster on opening day. it's very likely that four of them won't be used in the game at all, so why take up the roster space?

 

could/should the brewers option a player like marco estrada or wily peralta to the minor leagues 5 – 7 days before opening day? the rationale is that because he's not expected to pitch until the fifth game of the season, another player (a bullpen arm, a position player or a guy to dh in boston) could be there to take his place for the first few games.

 

said starting pitcher would travel north with the brewers, after getting some regular work on the minor league side of spring camp, and having been sent down for the 10-day minimum, could be recalled by the fifth game without burning an option year (like alfredo figaro with his brief stay with nashville last year). if the opening day guy sent down was needed to replace an injured player, he wouldn't have to stay down 10 days before being recalled (provided the injured player goes on the disabled list).

 

granted, this strategy gets messed up by having garza pitching in minor league games from here on out.

[Outlander]

Since they don't need a fifth starter until the 13th I would have Peralta start the Nashville opener on the third, pitch again on the eighth and then come back to Milwaukee on the 13th to face the Pirates. Keeps everybody on a five day schedule and they could keep another position player for a couple of weeks.

[djoctagone]

Since they don't need a fifth starter until the 13th I would have Peralta start the Nashville opener on the third, pitch again on the eighth and then come back to Milwaukee on the 13th to face the Pirates. Keeps everybody on a five day schedule and they could keep another position player for a couple of weeks.

this especially makes sense if they have duke, wang and smith on the 25-man to cover long relief. i'd feel better about optioning peralta earlier, so that his 10 days down could end by 8 april (if needed to start that day), but still be less than 20 days down (and no option burned) if recalled by 13 april.

[WV Brew]

Splits for Wily Peralta;

 

ERA K/9 WHIP

Apr/May 5.02 4.7 1.465

May 7.71 6.1 2.000

June 4.33 4.3 1.415

July 2.14 7.8 1.105

August 4.25 6.7 1.247

Sept/Oct 3.42 8.7 1.394

 

My point being that he is much better the 2nd half of the year. My recollection is that he was this way in the Minors also. Hopefully, they can get him started early this year. If he can match the last half of the year, the Brewers will have themselves a quality pitcher.

[djoctagone]

i still don't know why the brewers open the first games of the season with five starting pitchers on their roster--especially if there's a #4 or #5 guy with a minor league option remaining. it's a waste of roster space.