Ryan Braun Projection for 2014

[Warning Track Power]

Looking at the projections of a just a few sites and we see the following projections:

 

ESPN: .273/.347/.503 30 HR 98 RBI

MLB: .293/.358/.509 27 HR 92 RBI

ZIPS: .300/.367/.540 33 HR 116 RBI

162G AVG: .312/.374/.564 36 HR 117 RBI

 

I am sure there are a ton of other projections out there but I just grabbed the low hanging fruit. I think we all recognize that for the Brewers to have a shot of contending in 2014, we need Ryan Braun to be close to the Ryan Braun he was prior to the suspension. If I were to say which projection I think is closest, I think I would go with MLB.

 

I am guessing his 2014 is similar to what his 2010 season was .304/.365/.501 25 HR 103 RBI. I think he will still be the hitter for average he was before, but I think his HR numbers sag. I expect his power to trend a little downward from the 33 & 41 he put up in 2011 & 2012 to somewhere between 25 - 30. I think his RBI total will continue to be high given the opportunities to drive in whoever is in the #1 and #2 spots be it Segura/Gomez/Scooter/Weeks.

 

What are your expectations?

[JackNicholson1974]

.299/.360/.540 29 HRs 99 RBIs.

 

A great season that falls one hit, one HR and one RBI short of the magic numbers that would prevent people from accusing him of being washed up now that he is of PEDs

[Outlander]

Pretty shocking that ESPN has the lowest projections. I will go with 318/384/574 with more trips to the DL and days off than usual.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'm calling for a repeat of his 2012 season in 2014. People that think he will go on the go on the DL or regress due to PED's are in denial. This guy is a GREAT hitter.

[fondybrewfan]

Anyone who thinks Braun is only going to hit .273 is kidding themselves. 25 Hrs and 100 RBI's are pretty safe assumptions I would think. If Ryan hits anything less than .285 I would be suprised. A 950+ OPS certainly isn't out of the question

[MadScientist]

290/350/490 17 Hr 65 RBI (95 games)

 

The padding to protect the thumb will affect his numbers, and the thumb itself will flare up again. It's not 100% after all this time off and won't hold up. So goes life for the Brewers and their fans.

[RobDeer 45]

I don't think Braun will regress because of losing skill or power with no PEDs. I do however fear he will have nagging injuries several times this year. I don't think it's because he's not on PEDs, but more because he's always had them and he's older and lastly, he won't have the extra help to get him recovered. The thumb is also bothering me.

 

I think if you projected out his numbers to a full season, he would be sitting around his average, no big drop off. I think he misses time so I say:

 

.305/.360 25 HR 100 RBI

[Invader3K]

I'm optimistic. He's coming in (hopefully) 100% healthy and with a big chip on his shoulder and something to prove.

 

.310/.360/.495, 30 HR, 105 RBI

[pitchleague]

I'll put out a .303/.356/.511 line, including 31 HR and 111 RBI. Plus 13 SB.

 

And one trip on the DL.

[brewtank34]

So long as Ramirez stays healthy...

.307/.357/.545 34 HR, 129 rbi

[DHonks]

.326/.406 44 hr, 6th in MVP voting despite best numbers in NL

[SoupTown]

.300/.400/.500 30 home runs 30 stolen bases 100 rbis 100 runs

[The stache]

Pretty shocking that ESPN has the lowest projections. I will go with 318/384/574 with more trips to the DL and days off than usual.

 

I'm going to assume you meant: Pretty shocking that ESPN has the lowest projections.

 

ESPN always has, and always will be the most negative when it comes to Braun, or anything to do with sports from Wisconsin.

 

It's completely logical to think a guy that has only hit below .300 in a full season once would hit .273 this season.

 

.310/31/107/25 SB is my projection. .394/.563/.957.

[Mike2k33]

I understand the optimism from fans. He has always had great numbers before last year. However, I just see the thumb causing problems on and off all season.

 

I'm going .287/.358/.498, 20-24 HRs, lots of 2Bs if he stays healthy. Still good, not great. I don't see the PED thing causing a drop in power, I think it's the thumb that will prevent him from having a big 2014.

[Fear The Chorizo]

.310avg, .385obp, 35HR, 120RBI, 100+ runs scored...counting stats assuming he's healthy enough to play in 150 games this season. The thumb and consistent oblique issues with Brauny prior to the PED stuff give me concern about his health.

 

When healthy I think he's going to rake all season long, which will prompt ESPN to push for Remetee undershirts to be placed on the banned substances list. His 2012 season was basically one big F.U. to everyone riding him after that overturned suspension, and he's had a relatively quiet 9 months by his standards to recharge the batteries and get ready to return to playing baseball.

 

From the pessimistic side, I can see some sort of freak injury like a broken bone in his hand from a HBP keeping him out significant time, and it being unfairly categorized as an injury from being off the juice...but I'm an optimist, so forget that thought.

[brewcrewdue80]

162G AVG: .312/.374/.564 36 HR 117 RBI

 

I feel like Braun's .312/.374 will be about right. The HRs can be tough to judge. Few things to consider, even with being a great hitter, You've taken Houston out of the division, Pitt/Cin/StL all have great pitching up and down....Okay Pitts really relies on Cole/Taillon stepping forward. All around the NL the pitching has vastly improved and like mentioned his thumb+no longer PED assisted You have to believe HRs will drop. But not by much. I'll say 28HRs this year in 147games. Being optimistic he won't go on the DL this year but go Day to Day multiple times.

 

.307/.370/.517 29HRs 92Rbi 27SBs

 

But, I wouldn't be surprised he exceeds those numbers. Braun just seems to want to be historic with his numbers. I could see 40-44HRs and 30-34SBs with a .333-.345 avg. Rbi still to me will be tough to exceed 100 this year. Honestly Segura and whoever bats 2nd, you just have to believe aren't posting .340+ OB. And if it's Gomez #2 the 25-30HRs Cargo gets reduces those Rbi opportunities. Sure both Segura/Gomez are more likely to score from 1st on a Double by Braun than anyone in the past #1/2 in the order. Just feel it's tough for Braun this year to achieve 100Rbi. not to mention the #8/9 in order isn't promising this year to believe those guys will be on base but a handful apiece throughout the year.

 

I'd really like to see Braun bat #2 this year Mixing ARam/Lucroy at 3/4.

[The stache]

If I had my way (and maybe it's a good thing I don't ), this would be my lineup:

 

1. Segura SS

2. Lucroy C

3. Braun RF

4. Ramirez 3B

5. Davis LF

6. Gomez CF

7. Gennett 2B

8. Halton/Reynolds/Francisco/Morris/Overbay 1B

9. P

 

I like Lucroy at #2 because he's a really solid hitter that drives in runs, and he doesn't strike out a lot. With Segura's speed, and Luc's ability to hit to all fields, I think Braun, ARam and Davis will have a lot of RBI opportunities.

[Polish Falcons]

I think Braun thrives like in 2012

.308/.369/.540/1.016/36 HR/116 RBI

[torts]

braun homered in first ST at bat

[Invader3K]

braun homered in first ST at bat

 

Clearly a sign of great things to come!

[jjkoestler]

braun homered in first ST at bat

 

PEDs grumble grumble grumble

[azcheesehead]

braun homered in first ST at bat

 

PEDs grumble grumble grumble

 

Hopefully Braun is locked in, in full "F you, I have something to prove" mode and has a great year.

 

.317/.360/.560 34 HRs, 116 RBI, No All Star appearance, 1 new wife, and a little Braunie in the oven by October.

[reillymcshane]

braun homered in first ST at bat

 

PEDs grumble grumble grumble

 

Hopefully Braun is locked in, in full "F you, I have something to prove" mode and has a great year.

 

.317/.360/.560 34 HRs, 116 RBI, No All Star appearance, 1 new wife, and a little Braunie in the oven by October.

You forgot World Series Ring as well.

[SRB]

Braun is the kind of arrogant-in-a-good-way player who thrives on proving a point. When his original scandal broke back in 2011 he came back and had the best season of his career.

 

Since I don't think PEDs have any impact on performance whatsoever other than durability, I'm putting a healthy Braun at: .330/.400/.600/1.000, 40 HR, 35 SB, 110 RBI

[homer]

Braun is the kind of arrogant-in-a-good-way player who thrives on proving a point. When his original scandal broke back in 2011 he came back and had the best season of his career.

 

Since I don't think PEDs have any impact on performance whatsoever other than durability, I'm putting a healthy Braun at: .330/.400/.600/1.000, 40 HR, 35 SB, 110 RBI

 

 

I hope you're right because that would make Buster Olney really angry.