Orioles sign Nelson Cruz - 1/$8mm

[jjkoestler]

Per MLB Trade Rumors

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/orioles-to-sign-nelson-cruz.html

[BrewersSuperCollector]

OUCH!!!

 

I'm sure he's kicking himself for not taking the qualifying offer.

[Warning Track Power]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

[TURBO]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

 

Exactly...

 

There is always someone dumb enough (or desperate enough) to make stupid moves like this. Glad it wasn't us this time.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Chris Davis and Matt Wieters are probably gone after this year. Its win now mode.

[jerichoholicninja]

Short sighted but probably the best move for the O's. Sign all the QO'ed free agents you can this year to short deals and try and win now. They should probably sign Santana and then Drew to play 3rd until Machado comes back.

[endaround]

OUCH!!!

 

I'm sure he's kicking himself for not taking the qualifying offer.

 

Yeah I was surprised when Texas made the QO and really surprised when Cruz turned it down. A 33 year old OFer with defensive issues who can't hit outside Texas coming off a PED suspension? Not sure who thought there was going to be a big market there.

 

This is great deal for the Orioles if it stays as reported. They get Cruz at below market cost for this year and don't have to pick up any decline years for big dollars at the cost of a 2nd round pick. And if the Orioles end up as expected 4th in the division come July, Cruz could be moved for more talent than they gave up with the pick (assuming he's playing decent).

[JohnBriggs12]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

 

While it's a tough division, every team in it is flawed to some extent. The Orioles positioned themselves to be right in the mix. Kudos to them. They've drafted high up for years and didn't have a lot to show for it. They saw an opportunity they couldn't pass up.

[TheCrew07]

While it's a tough division, every team in it is flawed to some extent. The Orioles positioned themselves to be right in the mix. Kudos to them. They've drafted high up for years and didn't have a lot to show for it. They saw an opportunity they couldn't pass up.

 

You continue to oversimplify issues to the point of absurdity. The only 1st round pick they really missed on since 2007 was Hobgood who signed for big money and the very next year reported completely out of shape and had lost about 6 MPH off his FB. What is the Brewer's record on 1st round picks in that same time frame? I've been following Baltimore's minor league system for a long time as they've been focused on developing pitching.

 

Weiters, Matusz, Machado, Bundy (when he returns from the DL), and Gausman will all help the big league club this year. Maybe it's just not that easy competing in the same division as an extremely well run franchise in TB and 2 big market clubs in NY and Bos?

 

Baltimore has gone about it the right way but for some reason they just struggle developing pitching, even guys that were can't miss like Matusz... The Orioles always seem to be on the cusp of a homegrown impact rotation and every year different pitchers fall apart for different reasons... there are too many arms to make it a coincidence, their development plan for pitching has just been awful, no way around it... which strikes pretty close to home those of us who follow the Brewers' minor league system, we can relate.

 

The Cardinals are the best team in our division and should maintain that distinction for some time. The Pirates are loaded with talent up and down their minor league system and have a solid MLB club, their best days are still in front of them. The Reds are about where the Brewers were in 2010 and the Cubs are on the rise. Chicago has the best group of hitting prospects anyone has had in a long time with CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson in AA... by 2016 they will make some noise. Where do the Brewers fit in the central long term?

 

Likewise look at the Orioles, where have they been, and where they are going? The Rays constantly cycle talent which keeps them extremely competitive, the Red Sox and Yankees just buy whatever they need to plug the holes their farm systems aren't able to fill, and the Jays were on the rise but got impatient and sold off a ton of talent to finish last in the division again. The simple truth is that without the pitching to compete Baltimore is going no where in that division, they will always be a 4th or 5th place team. It's the same for the Jays who tried to go "veteran", ended up with a rotation of all players >=28 years old, and not single guy managed to put up an ERA under 4. The Orioles were already in the mix, they were 85-77 last year, the same record as the Yankees, and I don't see Jimenez and Cruz making them a 90-92 win team.

 

The answer for the Orioles isn't any different than it is for us, to be relevant year in and year out they will need to figure out a way to develop their own pitching. They've worked harder at it than the Brewers, but have gotten similarly poor results. Essentially all the Orioles did was spend their "free money" from the national TV contract, so in that sense they didn't really hurt themselves at all, regardless of what happens long term with Jimenez as you can't build a rotation around someone who's 30+ years of age. However I don't see how signing Cruz and/or Jimenez makes them significantly better than they were last year.

 

Once again their top 10 prospect list is loaded with pitching, they just need to stay patient and take hard look at what they've been doing with their arms to figure out the issues in their pitching development strategy or nothing is going to change for them.

[umphrey]

The 2nd round draft pick probably didn't factor into the decision much at all. Here are the Orioles 2nd round draft picks since 1995:

 

Chance Sisco (minors) C

Branden Kline (minors) RHP

Jason Esposito (minors) 3B

Mychal Givens (minors) SS

Xavier Avery (minors) OF

*Ryan Adams (minors) 3B

Nolan Reimold (minors) OF

Brian Finch (minors) RHP

Corey Shafer (minors) OF

*Ben Knapp (minors) RHP

Alex Hart (minors) RHP

Sean Douglass (minors) RHP

Brian Falkenborg (minors) RHP

Chip Alley (minors) C

 

A 2nd round pick doesn't have much value

[TURBO]

A 2nd round pick doesn't have much value

 

Not to the Orioles, that's for sure...

[brewcrewdue80]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

 

 

I dunno I believe I read it was the 59th pick? There's not a whole lot of good options there especially when you are working with the 59th slot as the starting point for your money to work with. You figure that leaves them a College player to draft and hope develops.

 

I am also waiting for Baltimore to sign another QO...Santana now since they went with Cruz vs Morales who must have been seeking 3-4years and wouldn't come down. So it all depends then do you say dumb signing then Cruz 1 year vs. 59th pick or Smart signing Santana at 59th pick and smart signing Cruz for what? 90th pick?

[reillymcshane]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

If Cruz has a good 2014, the Orioles can give him the qualifying offer again. If he accepts the offer, they get him for another season for roughly $15 million - making it a two year $23 million deal.

 

If he rejects the offer, the Orioles get a comp pick - better than this year's 2nd round pick.

 

If Cruz has a poor or mediocre 2014, they can cut ties.

 

It's a risk for Baltimore, but there's an okay chance they get back the draft pick - or get Cruz for another year.

[DHonks]

I guess I'm not sure I get all the criticism. If Cruz has a 40-homer year, he could be trade-bait or he could be re-signed. With a good season at $8 million, he's a bargain compared to most 2nd round draft picks. I think most teams dream of their draft picks hitting 40 homers in a season...he could do it THIS year. Sometimes I think things have swung the other way and people are now over-valuing draft picks

[paul253]

If he rejects the offer, the Orioles get a comp pick - better than this year's 2nd round pick.

 

You beat me to it. I was at first thinking "why give up a pick for a one year deal" also. But once I realized it wasn't a first round pick you realize it's actually a pretty good deal. There are 3 possible outcomes here, two of them favorable to Baltimore.

1) He has a good year, the offer him a QO, he accepts and it becomes a 2/$23 million deal.

2) He had a good year, they offer him a QO, he turns it down and they get a better pick than they forfeited or

3) He has a bad year and they let him walk without a QO.

 

2 of the three are good for Baltimore and even if he has a bad year it only cost them a second round pick.

[DHonks]

to go with what I said before.... Evan Frederickson, Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Matt Laporta, Jeremy Jeffress, Mark Rogers, Jon Steitz, Dane Artman, Josh Murray, Eric "mega" Thomas, JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Chad Green, Antone Williamson, Kyle Peterson, Dylan Covey, Seth Lintz, Cutter Dykstra, Corey Adams, Brent Brewer, Josh Wahpepah, Josh Baker, Lou Palmisano, Mike Jones, David Krynzel, etc etc etc. I want to build through the minor leagues, but we can't be afraid to try to improve our team now because we're afraid of losing a draft pick THAT in all likelihood will never reach AAA anyways. If the Brewers were to make moves like the O's did with Cruz, I'd be thrilled

[TheCrew07]

to go with what I said before.... Evan Frederickson, Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Matt Laporta, Jeremy Jeffress, Mark Rogers, Jon Steitz, Dane Artman, Josh Murray, Eric "mega" Thomas, JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Chad Green, Antone Williamson, Kyle Peterson, Dylan Covey, Seth Lintz, Cutter Dykstra, Corey Adams, Brent Brewer, Josh Wahpepah, Josh Baker, Lou Palmisano, Mike Jones, David Krynzel, etc etc etc. I want to build through the minor leagues, but we can't be afraid to try to improve our team now because we're afraid of losing a draft pick THAT in all likelihood will never reach AAA anyways. If the Brewers were to make moves like the O's did with Cruz, I'd be thrilled

 

I'll raise you Jeff Suppan, Jeffery Hammonds, Randy Wolf, David Riske, Eric Gagne, Braden Looper, Doug Davis, Trevor Hoffman... Where did the organization hurt itself more? Wasting millions upon millions with dead money on proven veteran FA contracts or through the draft? Veterans carry just as much risk as prospects do, they are far from sure things in themselves... I already pointed out the Blue Jays who gave up 2 of the better arms in the minor leagues to finish in 5th place; with oldies in the rotation who couldn't post ERAs under 4. Veteran acquisitions are far from sure things, past performance is not indicative of future success, especially with pitchers as age and injuries can derail a guy in a hurry.

 

I get that you've switched philosophies and now just want the big league club to be competitive, but there is only so much money to go around, and for the Brewers to compete long-term building through the draft isn't something the Brewers "want" to do, it's an absolute necessity to stay competitive.

 

As far as 2nd round picks... like JJ Hardy, Yovani Gallardo, Tyrone Taylor? I don't think giving up a 2nd round pick is the end of the world, especially if you can flip the player for similar or better talent than that 2nd round pick. However if that kind of trade doesn't happen and you don't make the playoffs then what exactly did giving up that pick accomplish? Now you didn't finish any better than you did the year before and lost an opportunity to make the organization stronger with a draft pick. As always there is risk & reward on both sides of the equation, there are opportunity costs regardless which option is chosen.

 

40 HRs from Cruz? That's just pure hyperbole... he's only played 1 full season in his career, may have been getting a bump from juicing, and regardless his maximum career HR output in a single season was 33 as 28 year old. I would have agreed with that assessment of his potential in his prime, but we're 5 years removed from the best single season output of his career, and he never got to that next level HR wise. I'd probably project him for something in the mid 20s... 25, 26, 27, somewhere in that range, which is still plenty. Yes I know that he hit 27 in only 109 games last year, but in 2012 when he played in 159 games he only hit 24.

 

I think that's just a really tough division to compete in; one of the best, if not the best run franchise in the entire game and 2 marquee big market teams, that's a steep hill to climb to the top of on a regular basis or even in a single season. I don't think their additions have vaulted them to the top, I think they are still firmly in the middle of the pack. If Gausman can ascend now that he's gotten his feet wet and become a legit #2 pitcher I think that would make a much bigger difference for the organization than what they did over the winter. However there's a chance that Gausman will join Matusz permanently in the pen, and I would be disappointed for them if that was the case. However assuming he converts back to a starter and if Bundy comes back strong and continues to ascend that could be a heck of a top of the rotation for 2015, or for the playoffs in 2014. You'd have 2 legit #2s in Tillman and Gausman and a potential true #1 in Bundy. I just have a hard time believing in Gonzalez and I have no idea what to make of Jimenez. Wei-Yin Chen is more of a pitchability guy, but regardless who'd be in the 4/5 spots in that rotation it would be pretty darn good.

 

Like I said, the Orioles really didn't hurt themselves spending their free money, they can deal with Jimenez if he becomes an albatross at the back of their rotation. However I just don't see Cruz as some savior, he's just potentially a nice step up from what the Orioles had in RF before, assuming he's healthy and productive of course. I just think for them to move up the ladder it's going to come down to their pitching, moving up from a middle of the pack team (in the AL) to that next tier, and I'm not sure Jimenez is any kind of answer on that front.

[Roderick]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

 

If you put a dollar valuation on a 2nd round pick what would it be? I think Baltimore did fine, they saved at least a couple of million on what they would have had to pay him if he didn't have any draft pick compensation tied to him. Plus they have opportunities to get value from him via trade or qualifying offer.

[torts]

this signing really has to impact the money Morales ends up getting. I cant imagine he'd get more than $8 million

[pogokat]

to go with what I said before.... Evan Frederickson, Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Matt Laporta, Jeremy Jeffress, Mark Rogers, Jon Steitz, Dane Artman, Josh Murray, Eric "mega" Thomas, JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Chad Green, Antone Williamson, Kyle Peterson, Dylan Covey, Seth Lintz, Cutter Dykstra, Corey Adams, Brent Brewer, Josh Wahpepah, Josh Baker, Lou Palmisano, Mike Jones, David Krynzel, etc etc etc. I want to build through the minor leagues, but we can't be afraid to try to improve our team now because we're afraid of losing a draft pick THAT in all likelihood will never reach AAA anyways. If the Brewers were to make moves like the O's did with Cruz, I'd be thrilled

 

 

While I agree with some of the philosophy behind what you are saying since the Brewers are no longer a bottom dweller in payroll, I also appreciate the ability to trade prospects.

 

I think it greatly helps the contending teams, the ones that use their money effectively at least, that they are able to trade their top prospects and let them flame out with someone else.

 

I look on your list and see Matt LaPorta listed as a failed prospect, and while he certainly was, he wasn't for the Brewers---he gave the Brewers one of the best seasons they've ever had---and demonstrates perfectly why he was worth drafting.

[Warning Track Power]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

If Cruz has a good 2014, the Orioles can give him the qualifying offer again. If he accepts the offer, they get him for another season for roughly $15 million - making it a two year $23 million deal.

 

If he rejects the offer, the Orioles get a comp pick - better than this year's 2nd round pick.

 

If Cruz has a poor or mediocre 2014, they can cut ties.

 

It's a risk for Baltimore, but there's an okay chance they get back the draft pick - or get Cruz for another year.

Is the bolded part true? If so, then I can see bringing Cruz in for one year with the cost of a 2nd round pick as they get Cruz at a discount and possibly get a better pick next year if he rejects the QO. If it isn't true, then the Orioles wasted a high pick on a guy they have for one season. If I am an Oriole fan and I am willing to sign an FA with a QO, I want it to be a guy who could possibly provide value for 3 - 4 years, not 1 year. I would have preferred Morales or Santana on a multiple year deal than Cruz on a 1 year deal.

[logan82]

If I'm Cruz I accept arbitration next year.

[torts]

If I'm Cruz I accept arbitration next year.

 

you mean qualifying offer, not arbitration

[reillymcshane]

Is it just me or does this move seem incredibly shortsighted on the Oriole's part? Giving up a second round pick for one year of Cruz seems stupid to me.

If Cruz has a good 2014, the Orioles can give him the qualifying offer again. If he accepts the offer, they get him for another season for roughly $15 million - making it a two year $23 million deal.

 

If he rejects the offer, the Orioles get a comp pick - better than this year's 2nd round pick.

 

If Cruz has a poor or mediocre 2014, they can cut ties.

 

It's a risk for Baltimore, but there's an okay chance they get back the draft pick - or get Cruz for another year.

Is the bolded part true? If so, then I can see bringing Cruz in for one year with the cost of a 2nd round pick as they get Cruz at a discount and possibly get a better pick next year if he rejects the QO. If it isn't true, then the Orioles wasted a high pick on a guy they have for one season. If I am an Oriole fan and I am willing to sign an FA with a QO, I want it to be a guy who could possibly provide value for 3 - 4 years, not 1 year. I would have preferred Morales or Santana on a multiple year deal than Cruz on a 1 year deal.

 

As long as there's no clause in Cruz's contract forbidding Baltimore from giving him a qualifying offer next year, there shouldn't be any reason the O's can't do it after the season.

 

The O's right now are giving up (roughly) the 55th pick in the draft. If they give Cruz a qualifying offer next year, and he refuses, they get a pick (roughly) in the 30-35 range.

 

The more I look at it, it's not a bad gamble on Baltimore's part. They aren't stuck with Cruz long term - likely a year or two - and have a good chance to recoup the draft pick next year. If Baltimore is out of the race this year, they also could deal Cruz at the trade deadline for something decent.

 

I think Morales would have been a better fit for Baltimore. Cruz will probably hit decent in Baltimore, but his age, injury issues and lack of success outside of Texas worries me. But at least Cruz can play in the OF.

 

No matter. Baltimore will put up some big HR numbers.

[adambr2]

to go with what I said before.... Evan Frederickson, Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Matt Laporta, Jeremy Jeffress, Mark Rogers, Jon Steitz, Dane Artman, Josh Murray, Eric "mega" Thomas, JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Chad Green, Antone Williamson, Kyle Peterson, Dylan Covey, Seth Lintz, Cutter Dykstra, Corey Adams, Brent Brewer, Josh Wahpepah, Josh Baker, Lou Palmisano, Mike Jones, David Krynzel, etc etc etc. I want to build through the minor leagues, but we can't be afraid to try to improve our team now because we're afraid of losing a draft pick THAT in all likelihood will never reach AAA anyways. If the Brewers were to make moves like the O's did with Cruz, I'd be thrilled

 

That entire list combined probably cost less than what we paid Suppan in 2010 to pitch for the Cardinals.

 

I also don't understand the point of making a list of our draft busts. Every team has them, does that mean no team should build through anything other than proven players? Some of these were 20 or more years ago, well before the current regime, and some were 3rd round or later, at which point frankly most draftees aren't going to go on to have careers in MLB.

 

We are not the Yankees and cannot afford to patch every hole with expensive proven FA acquisitions..