Mr. Segura's wild ride

[The stache]

Over the off-season, much of the baseball reading I've been doing has focused on Jean Segura's second half last year, with one author after another hypothesizing as to why there was such a dramatic drop off in his production. I've read everything from pitchers figuring Segura out as a hitter to Jean's developing a hitch in his swing, or a minor injury that went unreported impacting his effectiveness (which would certainly jive with his being shut down towards the end of the season due to a hamstring issue).

 

One thing I haven't really seen discussed at all, however, might perhaps be the most logical explanation: maybe the guy was just worn out. While I know that this was referenced in passing here on Brewerfan.net last season, I decided to dig through some schedules, and look back at the actual number of games that Segura had played in since the start of the 2012 season. What I found was pretty eye opening. Between April 5, 2012, and July 16, 2013 when the MLB All Star Game was played (a roughly fifteen month period), Jean Segura played in an incredible 300 games.

 

Over the last 54 games of the 2013 season, he hit .241 with a single home run, and 13 RBI. Worst yet, he posted a .583 OPS. But when you look back at the fifteen month period preceding his drop in productivity, the falloff seems easily explainable. Here's a breakdown of the games he played in:

 

2012 Arkansas Travelers (94 games)

April 5, 2012 to July 21, 2012

 

2012 Anaheim Angels (1 game)

July 24, 2012

 

2012 Huntsville Stars (12 games)

July 29, 2012 to August 5, 2012

 

2012 Milwaukee Brewers (44 games)

August 6, 2012 to October 3, 2012

 

2012 Gigantes Del Cibao (35 games)

October 18, 2012 to December 16, 2012

 

2013 Milwaukee Brewer spring training (21 games)

February 23, 2013 to March 30, 2013

 

2013 Milwaukee Brewers (93 games)

April 1, 2013 to July 16, 2013

 

Even the most finely-tuned professional athlete needs an off-season to rest, and let their body heal up. Segura really never had that. Starting in April of 2012, he reported to the Arkansas Travelers (the Angels' AA affiliate). He played 94 games there before being called up to the Majors for a single game. Then, after being acquired by the Brewers, he was sent to Huntsville, Alabama, where his year continued on with Milwaukee's AA team. There he played 12 games, before being called up to Milwaukee. After a 44 game stint in the Majors, Segura flew to the Dominican Republic, where he played in the Winter League there for another 35 games. This marked an eight month period where Segura was going pretty much full speed. He had a short break before players reported in advance of spring training for the 2013 season. He played in 21 spring training games, then started a 93 game trek leading up to the All Star Game. 300 games in 15 months, not including intra-squad games, batting practices, work outs, etc. 15 months of almost nonstop play, and flying around the country.

 

Jean's last game of the 2013 season came on September 28th. That means by the time spring training starts next week, he should be well rested. And I expect an outstanding, and complete season from our young star.

[Invader3K]

Great point that hasn't been expounded upon much. Good job, 'stache. I just tweeted a link to this.

[RobDeer 45]

Good post Stache. I agree, at some point, your body just can't handle it. Plus little nagging things that are hurting don't go away fully. There is no way he was running on 100% juice last year.....unless he talked to Braun's guy. "Was that a shot?" - Uncle Roman, Great Outdoors.

[kalle8]

if you want to play 300 games in the Italian Baseball League you have to play at least 8 years. if you want to take have some rest, Jean, you know where to come! (maybe former Brewer Mark Di Felice can arrange something).

 

300 games in 15 months, I just can't believe it!

[torts]

thats almost two full seasons in 15 months

[reillymcshane]

Mr. Segura's wild ride

 

Isn't this a ride at Disney World?

[logan82]

That's Mr. Toads Wild Ride. Haven't you seen Mallrats.

[bork]

It's actually at Disneyland. The Walt Disney World version is now all full of Pooh.

[chickinbrickin]

I would be curious to understand if there is a production drop off with other players who play winter ball. I think getting burnt out was part of the problem, but I also think pitchers started figuring him out as well

[SRB]

Very interesting, though I'm not sure how much I buy position players (as opposed to pitchers, who get legitimate arm fatigue) having that large of a production drop simply due to fatigue. There are more physically demanding sports where professional athletes get little to no off-season, like association football in Europe. I guess maybe baseball is more tiring if you play shortstop and have Segura's speed-heavy skill set.

[Patrick425]

I told my boss that I think my production is falling off because I'm working too much...but that didn't fly.

[3and2Fastball]

Very interesting, though I'm not sure how much I buy position players (as opposed to pitchers, who get legitimate arm fatigue) having that large of a production drop simply due to fatigue. There are more physically demanding sports where professional athletes get little to no off-season, like association football in Europe. I guess maybe baseball is more tiring if you play shortstop and have Segura's speed-heavy skill set.

 

Baseball is light years more mentally tiring than association football or just about any other sport.

[homer]

I'd be curious to see how that compares to other players around his age and if there was a similar drop off.

[chickinbrickin]

Just ready some fantasy articles and look who is the first player discussed here?

 

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/story/24450283/draft-prep-breakouts-10

[Patrick425]

Just ready some fantasy articles and look who is the first player discussed here?

 

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/story/24450283/draft-prep-breakouts-10

 

Like that list...I got Belt, Cingrani, and Wheeler in my 11 team NL only fantasy league!

[Nottso]

Some say "extend Segura now."

 

Others say "wait another year."

 

Why not see how Jean starts off the season and then (if warranted) quietly work with his agent on an extension during the year? If he plays the first couple of months like he started off last year I'd be pretty comfortable with the "he wore down at the end of last season due to his rigorous schedule" theory.

[torts]

you guys read the article McCalvy did?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mil/around-the-horn-brewers-shortstop?ymd=20140224&content_id=68279180&vkey=news_mil

[monty57]

Some say "extend Segura now."

 

Others say "wait another year."

 

Why not see how Jean starts off the season and then (if warranted) quietly work with his agent on an extension during the year? If he plays the first couple of months like he started off last year I'd be pretty comfortable with the "he wore down at the end of last season due to his rigorous schedule" theory.

 

More information is not a bad thing. After Segura's hot start last season, it was easy to envision him among the elite young players in the game, but the Brewers can't let emotions cloud judgement. To the theory of this thread, isn't it also a possibility that by playing non-stop, Segura was ahead of the pitchers at the start of the season, leading to a hot start, then as the pitchers "found their groove," they started getting him out?

 

I like Segura, but I think we've elevated him to a platform above his true ability. He's probably a good player, but not a great player. Great players are the ones that need to be locked up ASAP. Until we get a clearer picture, now that the price tag for an extension seems to have gone up, it wouldn't hurt to get more clarity before rushing to sign him at "any cost."

 

I have a feeling that if we had a Braun or Fielder type prospect, we wouldn't be so high on Segura, Davis and even Gennett. Since they're the best we have, we're putting unfair expectations on them.

[yoshii8]

Sounds like he definitely has the work ethic of a star player. I'm excited to see him as a Brewer for a long time.

[xisxisxis]

It was claimed by several that Yuni was kept around because he was a great clubhouse guy and he could mentor the younger latin players like Segura. Maybe Yuni finally did rub off on Jean, more specifically Yuni's crappyness rubbed off on Segura....

[The stache]

you guys read the article McCalvy did?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mil/around-the-horn-brewers-shortstop?ymd=20140224&content_id=68279180&vkey=news_mil

 

Yup, just did. And it turns out my educated theory was on the mark:

 

Brewers shortstop Jean Segura is finally comfortable admitting he wore down at the end of his full season in the big leagues, and spent the winter trying to ensure it does not happen again.

 

Besides the 300 games, people need to remember, too, the workouts, the bus rides, the plane trips, the batting practice. Even an elite athlete like a Major League baseball player is going to run on fumes after a while.

 

I like his work ethic, and expect big things from him.

 

I also don't buy the "if we had a Braun or a Fielder type prospect, we wouldn't be so high on Segura" line of thinking. Segura was one of the top prospects in baseball before he ever came to Milwaukee.

 

In 2011, Baseball America had Segura ranked the #57 prospect in baseball. He was #55 in 2012, going up only two spots because of a torn hamstring.

 

Prince Fielder was first ranked #78 in Baseball America's poll in 2003. Fielder was up to 10 in 2004, #15 in 2005, and #11 in 2006.

Ryan Braun was first ranked #49 in 2006. He moved up to #26 the next year.

 

Neither Fielder or Braun had a substantial injury that hindered their development. But to say Segura was never a Braun or Fielder-type prospect is patently false.

[monty57]

It's players that continually have to have excuses made for them that have me concerned over signing a deal that takes on all the risk of guaranteeing the player a lot of money for a lot of years. I guess I may be getting the threads mixed, because I'm looking at Segura's long-term moreso than just looking at him a player right now.

 

Without considering contracts, I like Segura and am very glad we have him. I was ecstatic when the Brewers finally broke down and traded Greinke, and think we need more of those deals to bring in more young talent like Segura. We need more players like him. I think that his true ability with the bat is somewhere between his first and second halves of last season. As long as he keeps his speed, he'll hit for a higher average (lot of infield hits), steal a lot of bases and be able to make some wide-ranging plays at shortstop. As he ages, his batting average, stolen bases and defense will drop, and his power will probably go up a bit.

 

However, he did look bad in the second half, a lot of his batting average came from infield hits, some of which could be outs in future years, and his OBP was only .035 higher than his average. I think he'll do well, but he's not a "sure thing," and that cloud of uncertainty makes me question whether we should sign him to an extension right now that will guarantee him to be paid $15MM or so a year six or seven years from now.

 

Every extension has risk, but I think it's higher for Segura than it was when we were discussing similar things for Braun and Fielder after their rookie seasons (although I think I was one of the only people saying we should extend Fielder at that time, because those type deals weren't happening back then). They didn't need excuses. They were Top 100 prospects who became top 20-ish guys, and didn't fall apart in the second half of their first MLB season.

 

Maybe the excuses for Segura are valid, maybe they're not. Should Milwaukee be willing to risk a lot of money over a lot of years (signing him to a deal that pays him like a star player) in hopes that they are?

 

I don't like sounding like I'm putting Segura down... I really do like him and think he's the best young talent that we have (Peralta next and then a big drop-off). I'm just trying to look at both sides of things and temper my expectations. It's possible that he'll be a .900 OPS guy, but it's also possible he'll hit .260 with a sub-.300 OBP. I think he'll probably fit somewhere in the middle, but I think some fans will be ready to call him a bust if he settles in as a mid-.700 OPS guy, which is pretty good for a SS, but far below some people's expectations.

[Warning Track Power]

As I mentioned previously, given the scarcity of quality SS in not only our system, but MLB in general, I would extend Segura at the Simmons level. Nothing about his past performances makes me believe he is closer to the 2013 post-All Star Game Segura (.241/.268/.315 1 HR 13 RBI 17 SB) than the pre-All Star Game (.325/.363/.487 11 HR 36 RBI 27 SB). In MiLB, Segura slashed a .313/.367/.439. Even if Segura is only the sum of the two halves, i.e. his final 2013 numbers, than the Brewers should be praying Segura takes their extension offer. Solid D, speed and a hard worker at a difficult position to fill? Oh and let's not forget he still has the potential to be an outstanding bat.

 

These are the risks that a small market team like the Brewers have to take in my opinion. Extend Segura today.

[SenatorShriv]

I would be fine with a Simmons or Castro type extension. I think it is worth the gamble.

[homer]

Not saying he wasn't worn out, but that's an easier explanation to give than "Pitchers finally figured me out." I think it still remains to be seen what kind of player he really is.