Andrelton Simmons - 7 Year $58 Million Extension

[Warning Track Power]

Could be a good indicator of what Segura could cost in terms of a contract extension.

[TooLiveBrew]

Numbers, from Jon Heyman on Twitter

 

Andrelton simmons got $58M/7 extension.

Link

 

Simmons breakdown: $1M sign bonus, salaries of $1M, $3M, $6M, $8M, $11M, $13M, $15M

Link

[Kelbysdaddy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see segura get something in the neighborhood of 7/45. I don't think he's going to get as much as Simmons but its still a very good deal.

[jerichoholicninja]

Simmons got paid for his glove.

Segura will get paid for his bat.

 

Segura will be asking for and getting more.

[monty57]

Simmons got paid for his glove.

Segura will get paid for his bat.

 

Segura will be asking for and getting more.

 

They have roughly the same service time, so it is a good comp. In his one full season, Simmons was 14th in MVP voting, and won a Gold Glove while Segura was an All Star. Simmons' OPS+ was 87, Segura's was 103. For their (brief) careers, Simmons' OPS+ is 90 and Segura's is 97.

 

The Braves are really setting the market for extensions with this one, Freeman and Teheran. I hoped Teheran was the bogey, but that's out the door now, as Simmons is almost a perfect comp for Segura. I love the thought of locking up young players, but with his fall-off in the second half, I'm wary of signing him to a 7 year / $58MM deal right now, but if we don't, he'd ask for a $100MM extension in the future.

 

I'm torn on this, and will have to trust in the Brewers' judgement as to whether they think he's worth it. Of course, Segura has to be amenable as well, and he walked away from the table last year, so he may not be.

 

Segura aside, I do like what the Braves are doing. They've got a good, young team that is locked up for a long time, and even though they don't seem to have a great farm system right now, they're always good at developing more good, young players on the farm.

[brewcrewdue80]

Simmons got paid for his glove.

Segura will get paid for his bat.

 

Segura will be asking for and getting more.

 

Simmons hit 17HRs last year. Nevermind being worth 4WAR or more than Segura defensively alone before adding to the WAR at the plate. That's a lot of ground for Segura to catch up to with the bat when he isn't seen as much more than a 10HR hitter.

 

And the contract break down reads 5/29mil then 2/28 which for a guy who likely wins Gold Glove at SS every year for the next decade you know you're getting your money back.

I say it that way because if we extend Segura we're talking that 2/28mil in FA years for a SS/2b who needs to have a better than average bat to be worth the money. And 2nd half as we know wasn't better than average. He's not worth what Simmons got in his deal at this point. Simmons defensive value on the field is just off the charts.

[monty57]

bcd80, that's why I'm now leery of extending Segura. The market is set with the Simmons extension, and Segura (largely due to one great half in a small sample set) can put together a valid argument as to why he's worth a similar contract to Simmons. I personally would be very scared of signing Segura to this contract, or even one slightly lower. The Brewers may now be the ones walking away from the table. Unfortunately, that would mean waiting until he's more "proven," and that will mean a much more expensive extension a year or two from now.

 

Of course, there's a good chance all of this is moot, because Segura walked away from the table last season, and Melvin apparently stated in a radio interview that they have not met with Segura's team about an extension, despite the rumors. I'm believing more and more that Segura will not be extended... this Simmons deal makes the risk very high for the Brewers, and Segura doesn't seem overly eager to extend.

[reillymcshane]

Simmons got paid for his glove.

Segura will get paid for his bat.

 

Segura will be asking for and getting more.

If Segura signs an extension right now, I think Simmons gets paid more.

 

Simmons has an elite skill - his defense. His defense is perhaps the best in all of baseball. I realize that defense rarely gets you paid a lot, but I think Simmons is the exception.

 

It's also a skill that isn't in question. Barring an injury (or pulling a Steve Sax), he's unlikely to become a bad (or even average) fielder. Segura's bat, on the other hand, has some questions due to his weak 2nd half of 2013.

 

If Segura goes out and hits .300 this season, then he's in line to top Simmons. But right now, I don't think so.

[HiAndTight]

Simmons got paid for his glove.

Segura will get paid for his bat.

 

Segura will be asking for and getting more.

 

Simmons hit 17HRs last year. Nevermind being worth 4WAR or more than Segura defensively alone before adding to the WAR at the plate. That's a lot of ground for Segura to catch up to with the bat when he isn't seen as much more than a 10HR hitter.

 

Since when do HR's drive WAR? Simmons also had a OBP below .300 and a SLG below .400.

Simmons had a 4.7 WAR last year, Segura had a 3.4

 

So I don't get why you're trying to break down WAR in this way. Simmons is safer as he's an exceptional defender. I don't think he's going to rate as good as he did last year moving forward, but that's my opinion. We've got one big league year to go off of so far. Same with Segura.

[The stache]

I think Segura has a lot more upside than Simmons, even considering the incredible defense he provides Atlanta. Simmons can't touch Segura's speed, which is going to be highly disruptive going forward. He can match his power, and I think eventually Segura is going to be pretty strong defensively.

[brewcrewdue80]

Simmons got paid for his glove.

Segura will get paid for his bat.

 

Segura will be asking for and getting more.

 

Simmons hit 17HRs last year. Nevermind being worth 4WAR or more than Segura defensively alone before adding to the WAR at the plate. That's a lot of ground for Segura to catch up to with the bat when he isn't seen as much more than a 10HR hitter.

 

Since when do HR's drive WAR? Simmons also had a OBP below .300 and a SLG below .400.

Simmons had a 4.7 WAR last year, Segura had a 3.4

 

So I don't get why you're trying to break down WAR in this way. Simmons is safer as he's an exceptional defender. I don't think he's going to rate as good as he did last year moving forward, but that's my opinion. We've got one big league year to go off of so far. Same with Segura.

 

 

Not saying HRs drive WAR, but when you look at Offensive Stats and contract negotiations Simmons as a SS with his Defensive superiority...he can add Power hitting to that for a SS? And Simmons is someone that has speed and can beat out his share of infield hits, there's going to be years Simmons has a high BABIP and likely hit .325 alone. Take that season and 15-20HRs and tell me how his WAR isn't driven up?

[monty57]

The Braves are probably banking on a new stadium bringing in new revenues, so they're extending out their young stars to remain competitive and keep fan interest high.

 

They should be really good this year and next. Then Kimbrel & Freeman's contracts get to eight figures when J. Upton, Uggla and Medlen are off the books, and Simmons and Teheran get to eight figures when B.J. Upton and Kimbrel are off the books. I wonder if Minor is the next in line to get an extension. He's in the first of four arby years, making $3.85MM, so he might be the odd-man out, as his extension would be expensive in the years they already have a lot of expensive contracts.

[Warning Track Power]

I think Segura has a lot more upside than Simmons, even considering the incredible defense he provides Atlanta. Simmons can't touch Segura's speed, which is going to be highly disruptive going forward. He can match his power, and I think eventually Segura is going to be pretty strong defensively.

While I don't agree with everything Stache wrote here, I have to say that I am leaning towards doing an extension with Segura immediately for the exact reason highlighted. If we are to assume that Segura isn't the first half or the second half, but rather is the sum of his 2013 season, he would be worth a Simmons-extension immediately. I believe that he is the .290/.330/.420 player he slashed last season, with 10-15 HR, 40+ SB potential annually. If he is that player and playing the position he plays, that extension should be doable for the Brewers now. However, adding in the D, which I also believe is where Segura's true value will come this season and next, and the Brewers may end up having to either pay the Elvis Andrus contract (8 years $118 million) or trading Segura near the end of arbitration.

 

Interesting to note that Baseball Reference has Andrelton Simmons as Jean Segura's #1 Similar Batter and that Segura's and Andrus' 162 Game Average while not identical, are quite similar:

 

Segura: .287/.326/.403 10 HR 53 RBI 43 SB

Andrus: .274/.339/.348 4 HR 56 RBI 35 SB

[TooLiveBrew]

The Braves are probably banking on a new stadium bringing in new revenues, so they're extending out their young stars to remain competitive and keep fan interest high.

 

They should be really good this year and next. Then Kimbrel & Freeman's contracts get to eight figures when J. Upton, Uggla and Medlen are off the books, and Simmons and Teheran get to eight figures when B.J. Upton and Kimbrel are off the books. I wonder if Minor is the next in line to get an extension. He's in the first of four arby years, making $3.85MM, so he might be the odd-man out, as his extension would be expensive in the years they already have a lot of expensive contracts.

They're also placing trust in their scouting & development, which allows them to spend a lot on players' prime-aged seasons, as opposed to the model followed by almost every other team -- paying gobs of money to 30+-yo's.

 

The Braves are a franchise I'd look to poach as much scouting/development talent from as possible.

[HiAndTight]

 

 

Not saying HRs drive WAR, but when you look at Offensive Stats and contract negotiations Simmons as a SS with his Defensive superiority...he can add Power hitting to that for a SS? And Simmons is someone that has speed and can beat out his share of infield hits, there's going to be years Simmons has a high BABIP and likely hit .325 alone. Take that season and 15-20HRs and tell me how his WAR isn't driven up?

 

Yeah, I guess if he hits .325 his WAR will obviously be driven up. I'm not trying to tell you it won't be. But this .325 is a made up number. His OBP last year was 30 points lower than that last year, so I don't think I'd say it's "likely."

 

And in contract discussions, I think Segura's offense and stolen bases last year are going to make a pretty strong negotiating point as well. I don't see how your hypothetical is any different than using Segura's offense and then projecting that he has seasons in which his defense is GG caliber. You're taking big leaps in both to make your arguments.

 

It's also worth noting that Simmons had 9 HR's in ~250 games prior to last year...so if Segura's first half is a question mark, wouldn't his power be?

[HiAndTight]

I think Segura has a lot more upside than Simmons, even considering the incredible defense he provides Atlanta. Simmons can't touch Segura's speed, which is going to be highly disruptive going forward. He can match his power, and I think eventually Segura is going to be pretty strong defensively.

While I don't agree with everything Stache wrote here, I have to say that I am leaning towards doing an extension with Segura immediately for the exact reason highlighted. If we are to assume that Segura isn't the first half or the second half, but rather is the sum of his 2013 season, he would be worth a Simmons-extension immediately. I believe that he is the .290/.330/.420 player he slashed last season, with 10-15 HR, 40+ SB potential annually. If he is that player and playing the position he plays, that extension should be doable for the Brewers now. However, adding in the D, which I also believe is where Segura's true value will come this season and next, and the Brewers may end up having to either pay the Elvis Andrus contract (8 years $118 million) or trading Segura near the end of arbitration.

 

Interesting to note that Baseball Reference has Andrelton Simmons as Jean Segura's #1 Similar Batter and that Segura's and Andrus' 162 Game Average while not identical, are quite similar:

 

Segura: .287/.326/.403 10 HR 53 RBI 43 SB

Andrus: .274/.339/.348 4 HR 56 RBI 35 SB

 

 

 

I agree with you. And a larger point, I've always felt if you do this consistently, if you sign players who you're confident are going to be consistent performers, you can miss on one and still come out ahead. Yeah, we missed on Hall. But Braun's production made up for that. I think Gallardo's deal is another example. If you have several really good young players, I've just always thought it was worth taking the risk early and buying out a couple years of Free Agency when you can is a lot more effective than going into the Free Agent market.

 

So 7 years and 60 million for Segura right now, buying out 2 FA years is worth that risk. Or two option years at least.

[fleehaw]

How much do people think Segura will get in arbitration when he gets there? 4-7-10? 5-8-12? 7-10-14?

 

For the next 5 years under Brewers control, he'll get around $30M and probably closer to $25M. Why are some people so quick to buy out 2 FA years or more at or very near to perceived market value? Don't forget the Brewers can also slap a qualifying offer on him for his age 29 season.

 

If I were Melvin, I'd propose a team option for his 1st year of FA with the caveat that they will not make him a qualifying offer the next year if the option in picked up. Meaning he will be a FA with no strings attached entering his age 30 season and still potentially in line for another big payday. If the option were picked up, I'd be looking more like a 6yr/$40M.

 

6 years is a long time. Conceivably, the Brewers can draft/sign and develop a SS in that time outside of those already in the system (Arcia).

[monty57]

That's the hang-up now that the market has been set. Do you pay Segura a superstar extension when he may not be a superstar? He's not the level of prospect as Ryan Braun, so it's not a no brainer. I love the idea of locking up pre-arby studs, but I'm on the fence with this one. Segura is the best pre-arby guy we've got, but he's not a "can't miss" guy. I was all over the extension at Teheran levels, and wouldn't be mad at a Simmons-level contract, but there is a big chance it could blow up on the Brewers if he doesn't live up to the high levels of expectation some here have for him.

 

It is just as likely that he stumbles a bit through pre-arby and doesn't hit the jackpot in arby as it is that he plays at an All-Star level. This deal really puts the risk on the Brewers that he will remain healthy and play at an All-Star level without giving them much discount for the chance that he doesn't.

 

But, since he is the best we've got, and since we don't have any other prospects in the system worth locking up, nor do we have any other SS's in the system who will be ready in the next few years, we'd probably be best served by trying to extend him even though the price tag just went up.

[502 to Right]

If Doug Melvin called the Atlanta Braves and said he'd like to trade Jean Segura for Andrelton Simmons straight up he'd get laughter and then a dial tone.

 

 

 

 

I love Jean Segura but Andrelton Simmons' defense puts him on another planet.

[HiAndTight]

Why are some people so quick to buy out 2 FA years or more at or very near to perceived market value? Don't forget the Brewers can also slap a qualifying offer on him for his age 29 season.

 

Perhaps because my perception of what market value for a 28 year old may be and what your may be could differ greatly. And obviously the level of confidence we have in Segura differs.

[The stache]

 

The Braves are a franchise I'd look to poach as much scouting/development talent from as possible.

 

The Braves and the Rays both. If we could add even one man from those two organizations who is influential in developing talent, we'd be well served to do so. Both these teams have an uncanny knack for finding young talent, especially pitching talent.

[monty57]

If Doug Melvin called the Atlanta Braves and said he'd like to trade Jean Segura for Andrelton Simmons straight up he'd get laughter and then a dial tone.

 

I love Jean Segura but Andrelton Simmons' defense puts him on another planet.

 

 

I agree. The reason it's meaningful is that Simmons is a very good comp for determining salary, and will now be what Segura's camp will use if the Brewers want to talk extension.

 

While a bit expensive, the reasons I think the contract is good for Atlanta, but questionable for Milwaukee are:

 

(A) Simmons is more "certain," while Segura has more to prove. Simmons' defense is not likely to falter, so it's less important for his bat to improve. Segura has to outhit Simmons by a fairly wide margin in order to make them "equal," and that's been erratic.

 

(B) The teams are in a different place. Simmons is one part of a young, talented core that is already one of the best teams in baseball, and is now getting locked up long-term to keep the team relevant for the next 5-6 years. If the Brewers signed a similar deal, a mid-to-late-30's Braun would be the only current Brewer still on the roster in the last two years of the deal, and there is little talent in the minors to step in and play at an All-Star level to keep the Brewers good. It could be argued that the lack of young talent makes it more important to extend Segura, but I think the Brewers are heading for a big rebuild, and long-term deals can be roadblocks in that process.

 

© As I mentioned earlier, everything has a price and a value. Segura could definitely live up to a contract at this price, but he'd have to play at the high levels of his expectations to do so (remember, we could just pay him $550k for a couple of years and then go through arby, so this isn't a free agent deal). With what he has shown, his potential is high, but value just isn't that high right now. Signing him because of what he "could be," and not because of what he "is" adds a lot of extra risk.

 

I'm not saying don't do it, because I would like to see Segura extended. I just wish it were for a lower price. But, with him walking away from the table last year, that was probably never an option. The Brewers will either have to pay up or shut up, and I'm not sure which I'd rather have them do. With no SS anywhere near MLB-ready in the minors, Segura has extra leverage in these dealings.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Considering the type of contracts that are being handed out to players at premium positions I'd pay Segura Castro type money without hesitation or if we can get away with paying less it will be a steal either way.