Homer Bailey Extension - 6 Years $105 Million

[Warning Track Power]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/cincinnati-reds-homer-bailey-agree-to-six-year-105-million-contract?ymd=20140219&content_id=67952854&vkey=news_mlb

 

Seriously...where are the Reds getting all of this money? Votto $200+ million, Phillips $60+ million, Bailey $100+ million, Bruce $50+ million. That is just a crazy amount of money they have spent in the past few years for such a small market team.

[monty57]

...and that's why you shouldn't wait until year two or three of arbitration to sign an extension. You end up basically signing a free agent deal.

[jerichoholicninja]

I had assumed that Bailey was quite a dominant pitcher the last few years and that this contract was totally worth it, but the stats really don't back that up. He's put up an ERA+ of 112 and 110 the last two years but his career ERA+ is 96. And while his walk rate has been pretty consistent at 2.3 each of the last 3 years, his k rate only spiked this last season. He seems like a darn good pitcher, one I'd certainly want on the Brewers, but not for $17.5M a season.

[Thurston Fluff]

Keep in mind he is only 27. He's been on a steady trajectory up and hitting his prime years. At best he is a budding ace. At worst, barring injury, is he is a middle of the road pitcher making too much money. All in all he might be overpaid but not by a whole lot when indexed to the rising salaries. I think it's a risk that he is going to be even better, but given his advancement so far it doesn't seem like an insane bet even if he doesn't.

[Warning Track Power]

I like Garza at 4 years $52 million ($13 AAV) immensely more than Bailey at 6 years $105 million ($17.5 AAV). I guess I will see four years from now if I feel the same way.

[danzig6767]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/cincinnati-reds-homer-bailey-agree-to-six-year-105-million-contract?ymd=20140219&content_id=67952854&vkey=news_mlb

 

Seriously...where are the Reds getting all of this money? Votto $200+ million, Phillips $60+ million, Bailey $100+ million, Bruce $50+ million. That is just a crazy amount of money they have spent in the past few years for such a small market team.

 

It's a sign of just how much money baseball as a whole is swimming in.

 

That Votto contract could really blow up in their faces down the road, but in the case of a guy like Bailey, 17 million per today in buying power isn't like 17 million per only just 4-5 years ago. I'm not implying there is no risk in this signing, but baseball fans need to keep in mind the new financial structure of today when evaluating any signings. All of this money is going to raise the paydays for everyone from bullpen guys, just decent starters, to upside hitters or pitchers like Bailey.

[brewcrewdue80]

...and that's why you shouldn't wait until year two or three of arbitration to sign an extension. You end up basically signing a free agent deal.

 

In his case it was what year 3 of Arb? Not a fan of the deal. 9/10 mil then 18/19/21/23mil? I don't even think of Bailey as much more than a #3 starter. And this division's offense in the next couple seasons I believe will expose him as the 4ERA guy maybe 4+ than the lucky 3.5/6ish ERA guy he appears.

 

Personally with extensions Monty, I feel like you do them Arb year 1. Whether it's buy the 3years of arb control and extend beyond or, during that year you extend buying the last 2years of control and extend beyond. It really depends on the age of the player too like Trout/Harper in their case, it's a no brainer to offer some contract extension maybe 10years at that before you even come close to Arb.

 

Maybe Homer played his cards right, don't look too good until you reach your arb years and then put up 2 consecutive good years so you can feed the minds of ownership you're worth a long term extension with high paying FA dollars in the end of it. 21/23/+25mil option? Really? Breaks down age years to this: 28:9mil 29:10mil 30:18mil 31:19mil and then at 32,33 21/23mil!

The Reds were a Year Late on this extension. I just don't like BIG money in to a FA beyond age 32 not top dollar money of a contract heading in to age 33 season. It's an obvious payout on what you've done and not on what you are projected to do at those age years.

When Homer is the 4ERA guy I think he is this will be one of those contracts the Reds can't give away to somebody with the final 2/44mil of it and even the final 3/63mil on it. Garza gets 12.5mil for 4years and Bailey's jumps from 10mil to 18? 19? At the moment I'm just going to guess that puts his 16/17 year money around 35-40th highest paid players for that year. Which begs the question how high would you rank Bailey overall in all of Baseball? Is he a top 50 player?

To me heck no.

[JohnBriggs12]

Six years for any pitcher is taking a big risk, even for one who's 27. For a lower revenue club like the Reds, it's an even bigger risk. Still at today's market Bailey doesn't have to win Cy Youngs to justify $17.5 million. If he's a solid #2 for at least 4 of those 6 years, they are probably getting production in line with the expense. An argument could be made that Bailey's last couple years were comparable to the two years prior to Greinke's big deal. In that sense, he's a bargain.

 

It behooves teams like the Reds and Brewers to have a constant flow of young starting pitching filling at least 2 of the rotation spots.