2014 State of the Farm Discussion

[RobDeer 45]

I'm not sure if I should have started a new thread but read a few rankings of mlb farm systems and it was concerning. I know a that a lot of these rankings aren't very well researched, but are we really in trouble?

[TheCrew07]

Yes, for years now.

[RobDeer 45]

I think I just kind of put my head in the sand and assumed some guys would turn out to be pretty good. I'm starting to really worry that even by trading some of our good players before they become FAs that we still won't be able to fill the system up any time soon.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm less worried. Cornerstone players on the major league team are locked up for the next 3-4 years. The pitching at the advanced levels is fairly solid. Lets see the progression this year with guys like Coulter, Roache, Taylor etc. and things can turn around.

[igor67]

Some concern is warranted given that as much as it is possible that a number of the position guys take big steps forward, they might not. And while some of them could survive a down year, stagnation from a guy like Roache, D'vo, and Coulter really knocks the upside luster off them. At that point the farm would start to look an awful lot like the Kevin Barker years. At some point the Brewers do need to generate top level guys again to be competitive in out years.

[Mr Southpaw]

What do you want from a farm system?

 

1. Major League ready pitching.

B. Major League ready pitching.

3. Up the middle depth (C, SS, 2B CF).

D. Corner power (1B, 3B, LF, RF),

 

We have 1, B, and D (except for a Major League ready 3B within 2-3 years).

 

Our draft needs to focus on a college 3B with power, more up the middle depth (especially SS and C), and more young pitching. That can be done in 1-2 drafts.

[DoubleSwitch]

Our draft needs to focus on a college 3B with power, more up the middle depth (especially SS and C), and more young pitching. That can be done in 1-2 drafts.

 

Drafting for immediate need is what got us 'safe' guys Bradley and Jungman.

[brewmann04]

They need to find legit top flight pitching especially at 12

[DHonks]

Mr. Southpaw, I'd like to see us find long-term solutions at 1b and 3b. Ramirez might be around a few seasons. We have no viable 1b options. Green seems a backup at 2b/3b at best

[TheCrew07]

What do you want from a farm system?

 

1. Major League ready pitching.

B. Major League ready pitching.

3. Up the middle depth (C, SS, 2B CF).

D. Corner power (1B, 3B, LF, RF),

 

We have 1, B, and D (except for a Major League ready 3B within 2-3 years).

 

Our draft needs to focus on a college 3B with power, more up the middle depth (especially SS and C), and more young pitching. That can be done in 1-2 drafts.

 

I guess we see things much differently.

 

1 & B. Sure if you count a plethora of mid to back of the rotation starters, but that's not the object of the game. The object is to have enough talent in front of your true #3 pitcher that he's actually your #5. That's a rotation that can match up against the best in baseball. We have quantity, but we don't have quality, at least as far starting pitching goes, and that's what the game is all about. I actually like the relief prospects we have up and down the organization, but we're woeful from a starting pitching standpoint, and we're especially thin on lefties whom are legitimate starting options.

 

3. Whom exactly is a legitimate everyday starting C, SS, 2B, or CF anywhere in the system today? I like D'Vo, Taylor, Arcia, McFarland, and Jenkins but none of those guys are legit prospects at this time.

 

D. Once again, where are the legitimate everyday MLB players in the farm system at any of the corners at this moment? We have plenty of bodies to throw at 1B and hope something sticks, but there's no 1st division starter in that bunch, and that's a problem around baseball as well. I think one of those guys will end being a decent contributor, but which one? In fact, when are any of them going to get an extended shot to prove anything? We have no legitimate 3B above R ball, the only halfway legit LF prospect is Roache, and his defense is horrible even in LF. I like Haniger for RF, but he's got quite a bit to prove as well.

 

1-2 drafts to fix a bottom 5 system with the current scouting staff in place? If it was that easy wouldn't we have a top 5 system with all the drafts from 2009-2013? There's no conspiracy here, our farm system is that bad, every team around MLB has sleeper prospects like ours... in fact that's the entire problem, too much depth and too few potential difference makers.

 

Of all of the top prospect lists which have come out, we had exactly 1 player make exactly 1 list, that's awful by any measure. I like our prospects as much as anyone but let's at least be realistic about what we have. There's talent, but that talent has to take giant steps forward this season or we're going to be having the same conversation next season, which by the way, we had at this point last year. We were talking about Coulter, Arcia, Taylor, and Roache having to step up and have big years to turn the farm system around.... well fast forward 1 season and here we are having the exact same discussion. I love upside, but at some point the results have to approach the physical potential or there is nothing to be excited about.

 

This isn't about rooting for "our guys", I think if you ask anyone who's been a link reporter they'd agree with me that you can't do that job; read all those stories, closely follow all of those teams, and study the players you are covering in detail without becoming overly attached to the prospects. It's even tougher if you meet them and get to know them a little bit... objectivity can be very difficult to maintain. It's also not about unnecessarily cracking on Bruce Seid and his scouting staff either, I actually enjoy Seid's interviews and find him very engaging, I honestly like him on personal level. Unfortunately the farm system is in the state that is, and he's ultimately responsible for the system, the results to this point have spoken for themselves.

 

Mike Sherman is a great guy in person and he went out of his way to help out the WFCA and promote football in the state, but he was under water as a GM for the Packers and he had to go. Likewise I don't think Melvin and Seid are bad people, I just the think the franchise was stuck in neutral for a long time and now were slowly sliding back down from where we came. The farm system is basically in the same state that it was in like 2001, we've come back full circle.

 

We graduated 1 entire wave prospects to MLB and they were very successful, we traded away the 2nd wave for various patches along the way plugging holes for the 1st wave, and a 3rd wave never materialized. I'm sorry but this group of Gennett, Davis, and company isn't going to put the team over the top... we're replacing 4 WAR or better players with guys we hope will be 2 WAR, we're losing ground at those positions and aren't making up enough difference elsewhere to maintain even what we had, which wasn't enough to get to a WS.

[sheetskout]

If the rumors about Lara turn out to be true and we sign an athletic pitcher with upside we can make a great attempt to rebuild our minor league perception; but the talent won't come quickly.

 

A list looking like Taylor, Arcia, Touissaint, Lara, D. Williams and so on a year from now doesn't look all that bad (assuming there's something at least positive regarding Taylor/Arcia/etc's progressions). They are pretty young with that group though.

[brewmann04]

We Need at least 2 Starting pitching to come up and tke the Top 2 spots in the rotation in a few years.

[JohnBriggs12]

We Need at least 2 Starting pitching to come up and tke the Top 2 spots in the rotation in a few years.

 

I wouldn't rule out Peralta being one of those 2 just yet. There are not many guys out there that throw harder. When he's on, he's a very tough customer. He's been compared to a young Bartolo Colon.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The worst way to rebuild a farm system is to draft based on current MLB needs - just draft the highest player left on your board each time your organization gets to pick. Having positions for prospects blocked at the MLB level is a good thing - that's when teams can start making trades from a position of strength. People scratched their heads when the Brewers picked LaPorta with Fielder already manning 1B - that draft pick landed them C.C. and the team's first playoff berth in forever, and Melvin made the right decision to deal LaPorta at his peak value.

 

If the people making the board are the problem, then you're in trouble...something many feel is the case right now with the Brewers' draft/scouting departments.

[brewmann04]

John Briggs hope you're right.

[paul253]

The worst way to rebuild a farm system is to draft based on current MLB needs - just draft the highest player left on your board each time your organization gets to pick.

 

While I agree that in general you pick the best player available I think teams need to be flexible when it comes to positions. The Brewers have more or less ignored positions like third base and shortstop at the top of the draft for the past 6 or 7 years and it's created a glaring hole not only at the major league level but all throughout the system. Melvin did a good job trading for Segura to fill that hole at SS but if we weren't so desperate for a SS we could have traded Greinke for pitching instead. Unless there is a fairly large separation between the top player on your board and the top player on your board at a position you need I don't see why you can't select the player at the position you need, especially after the second round (Can there really be that much separation between the 90th best player and the 91st or 92nd best player, for instance?)

 

Let's face it, the Brewers need a severe talent upgrade at every position in the minors. But at least they have some guys who have a chance to be Major League regulars in the outfield (Roache, Haniger, Taylor, DVo, Reed, etc), which I think is more than they can say for third base, shortstop, catcher, second base, and maybe even first base (Coulter and Arcia are too far away to make a decent projection on, in my opinion). They also desperately need a top of the rotation pitcher. Because of that, while I agree with the notion of drafting best player available I'd be pretty disappointed if they took at outfielder with the 12th pick unless that outfielder is much more talented that anyone else available.

[JohnBriggs12]

The major league and farm system should be looked at as one organization. While they may not have much in the way of prospects on the farm at some positions such as SS and 2B, both are now being manned on the major league level by guys who haven't yet reached their 24th birthdays. As for catcher, relative to most organizations, they are also very well positioned with 2 relatively young catchers at the major league level each under control for 4 more seasons. Their minor league system isn't devoid of talent there either. Coulter has a way to go defensively, but Houle was an 8th round pick out of HS with plenty of potential. He held his own at 19. Berberet had a 43% CS rate for Appleton last year.

 

I'd like to see a big time bat at 1B and a solid 3B prospect. Maybe Rogers can be that guy at 1B. There's time to still draft and develop the lower level guys everywhere else.

[fondybrewfan]

When considering MILB and MLB rosters 3rd base is obviously the most glaring weakness. Whlie our MILB depth isn't great at certain positions we have those positions locked with good young players at Milwaukee. But we really need a future 3rd basemen and 1st basemen in the minor league system. I like Denson at 1st base but he is atleast 2+ years away. Delmonico does nothing for me at 3rd.

 

With our SP depth I feel pretty comfortable about our starters in MIL for the next couple years. Hopefully by then some of the younger guys will have developed into solid to great prospects.

 

When you think about LF, CF, RF, SS, 2B, C are all more or less spoken for at MIL for the next several years. Our rotation has more than enough depth at MLB and AAA to field decent units for the next couple years. Melvin just needs to somehow find that 1st basemen and 3rd basemen to fill those glaring organization holes. But you sure as heck don't reach for those positions in the upcoming draft. You take the best available player period.

[brewmann04]

I agree 3rd base and Starting Pitching are the Crew 2 Major Needs heading to this draft.

[monty57]

The importance of the farm is that it allows teams to be young, talented and relatively inexpensive, only using free agency to fill in holes around the young, talented, inexpensive players. Because of the lack of talent on our farm, the Brewers have had to pay big salaries to guys who are expected to be top producers on the team, while extending guys from the bygone era where we had good homegrown talent... the pool which has now pretty much drained.

 

Several posters have mentioned the black hole at 1B throughout the system, and 3B once Ramirez is gone, but Melvin also had to use his available cash to sign a starting pitcher (for the second year in a row) when our top four prospects (Thornburg, Nelson, Jungmann and Hellweg) are pitchers. These guys are all 24 or 25 years old. Meanwhile, Davis and Gennett, who have always been behind the aforementioned pitchers on the prospect lists, will be relied upon as starters. If they succeed, the franchise will be in better shape in the future, so I'm glad they're getting a shot, but neither was ever tabbed as someone who would be an everyday major leaguer.

 

But taking this further, a good farm allows the team the flexibility to trade away players to keep more talent in the system. We saw a little peek at this when Aoki was traded because of Davis, but we don't have the talent on the farm to trade a good player while they're still good and could get a large return. It would be very nice to be able to trade guys like Gallardo and Lohse because the SP on the farm were forcing their way onto the MLB roster, but I don't really see any position where this is a possibility. Without this "recycling of talent," the Brewers will continue signing free agents to fill holes created when other players leave, and never trading anyone of value unless they're in their walk year and we're out of contention. This strategy will probably keep fans interested enough to buy tickets, but will not allow us to have a really good team for an extended period. The only way we'll have a really good team is if we get to the position where a strong farm is pumping star talent to the MLB team on a regular basis.

[trwi7]

Jerry (Green Bay)

 

Do you have any faith in the brewers to develop Devin Williams? Or does he have the stuff that past prospects havent had? ie Jungmann

 

Klaw

(1:29 PM)

 

The Brewers' developmental track record, especially with pitchers, is atrocious. They wouldn't let Jungmann throw his curveball, so he was all fastballs last year and the line reflected it. I love Williams' potential and he is still their best pitching prospect, but I can't say I'm optimistic that they'll do what it takes to help him reach his ceiling.

[igor67]

Any independent verification of this or context would be good as well. They've done that with other prospects to have them work on other pitches.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pretty sure I remember reading stuff from last season with Jungmann saying the Brewers specifically had him working on his offspeed offerings.

 

But we should just defer to Law... he never makes broad, sweeping generalizations & always strives to be fully informed before spouting off.

[TheCrew07]

I wouldn't doubt that the Brewers told Jungmann he couldn't throw his curve, it wasn't that good of a pitch to start with, he needed something better. I thought he flashed a nice change that could be decent if he threw it more during college, I never saw him throw his slider.

 

That curve wasn't an out pitch, I remember something about him tinkering with it in his first season to tighten it up, but regardless, having a get-me-over breaking ball doesn't really make Taylor a better prospect either way. He needs to tighten his command and develop some kind of an out pitch or he's destined to be nothing more than a more talented Dave Bush... pretty average all the way around with a little above average FB... a decent enough backend option but certainly not the guy many posters thought we were drafting.

 

I felt based on the regional and College WS games I saw him pitch that he didn't locate the 2 seam anywhere near as well as his 4 seam, and it's a tougher pitch to locate regardless, so I guess I don't find it shocking that he's developed slower than many thought he would. Especially since it sounds like he's essentially eliminated his 4 seam FB at this point. The jury is still out on him, with better command of that 2 seam and an out pitch he could be much more than he looks like today. However, if it was that easy to develop plus secondary offerings every pitcher would have them, so I think he's definitely facing an uphill climb to be even a #3.

 

The larger issue of course as Law alluded to is the Brewers ineptitude at developing pitching, which took another blow when they stuck Lee Tunnell in the MLB bullpen. I still think that was a completely reactionary and shortsighted moved by the front office because the bullpen was so awful in 2012. The organization would be stronger if he was out evaluating and helping develop our future relievers and starters than simply answering the phone in the bullpen because at one point it was the "most help needed" section of the MLB roster. Maybe he has a larger role than your typical BP coach, but on the surface I still despise that move as I feel it set back the development of every young pitcher in the system below MLB.

[TooLiveBrew]

[Jungmann] needs to tighten his command and develop some kind of an out pitch or he's destined to be nothing more than a more talented Dave Bush... pretty average all the way around with a little above average FB... a decent enough backend option but certainly not the guy many posters thought we were drafting.

At this point, I'd be thrilled if that's what he is -- a more talented Dave Bush would be something like a #3.

 

The larger issue of course as Law alluded to is the Brewers ineptitude at developing pitching, which took another blow when they stuck Lee Tunnell in the MLB bullpen. I still think that was a completely reactionary and shortsighted moved by the front office because the bullpen was so awful in 2012. The organization would be stronger if he was out evaluating and helping develop our future relievers and starters than simply answering the phone in the bullpen because at one point it was the "most help needed" section of the MLB roster. Maybe he has a larger role than your typical BP coach, but on the surface I still despise that move as I feel it set back the development of every young pitcher in the system below MLB.

Another thought on why they might have made that move (though my caveat is that I feel your take on it is more likely) would be to keep from losing Tunnell. Other clubs may well have come calling, & although it's obviously far better for the Brewers to have him at the MiLB level, I have to imagine Lee's paydays are looking a lot nicer now.