Brewers to talk extension with Segura

[markedman5]

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/2/16/5417146/brewers-jean-segura-expected-to-dicuss-extension-during-spring

[RockCoCougars]

Way too soon for this if you ask me.

[jjkoestler]

Way too soon for this if you ask me.

 

Agreed. Which Segura are the Brewers extending (1st half or 2nd half)? I'd give it at least another season before talking about an extension.

[MVP2110]

I'd be ok with this if they can get him on a deal like Braun's original extension. Seems like hell be able to stick at short and while he may have overachieved with the bat slightly last year, I think he showed he is going to be a solid player for awhile.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree it's too early. Forget a Braun-like deal, even a Lucroy-like one seems premature. I'd wait a full year.

[RockCoCougars]

The last time the Brewers did this with a young shortstop, they were stuck with Pat Listach for the next three years. Look at what Castro has done since his extension in Chicago. Segura looked good last year, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Seems to me that the Brewers would be taking on all the risk in this deal. I think that it's best to keep Segura motivated. If he plays well enough to get a good payday in arbitration in a few years, that's a good problem to have if you ask me.

[MVP2110]

Brewers are Definately not taking on all the risk here, imagine segura keeps up what he did last year, even makes another all star team before hitting Arby's. He's going to become very expensive very fast.

[Invader3K]

Supposedly they approached him last year about this and didn't even really get any response. We'll see if this actually leads to anything.

[homer]

The last time the Brewers did this with a young shortstop, they were stuck with Pat Listach for the next three years. Look at what Castro has done since his extension in Chicago. Segura looked good last year, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Seems to me that the Brewers would be taking on all the risk in this deal. I think that it's best to keep Segura motivated. If he plays well enough to get a good payday in arbitration in a few years, that's a good problem to have if you ask me.

 

Was Bill Hall still a shortstop when he got his extension?

[RockCoCougars]

The last time the Brewers did this with a young shortstop, they were stuck with Pat Listach for the next three years. Look at what Castro has done since his extension in Chicago. Segura looked good last year, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Seems to me that the Brewers would be taking on all the risk in this deal. I think that it's best to keep Segura motivated. If he plays well enough to get a good payday in arbitration in a few years, that's a good problem to have if you ask me.

 

Was Bill Hall still a shortstop when he got his extension?

 

Good memory, I forgot that one. I'm not sure... I know that he was moved off SS shortly thereafter for JJ. Billy had more MLB experience than Listach had/Segura does, and that one turned out just as bad or worse as the Listasch deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah we had a long lengthy discussion about Segura and the Brewers seeking out an extension. I think news broke out about the team having approached Segura's agent on an extension in Mid May? I could just go look back on my posts history to find this out. I was one of the very few who said no way too soon unless it was of some serious long term discount for 8years...I think I said 8years maybe 40-45mil total?

 

I believe in Segura and not what we saw in his 2nd half offensive numbers. While I think his fast start was over his head I think an overall season line and OPS of .752 is what is to be expected out of him. give or take 35pts depending on running in to a couple more HRs or taking 4-6 more walks one year and not in another year. Either way he's a 3WAR SS. So there's a good part of me that would love to lock a 3WAR+ SS up for the next 7-8years....But

 

He plays SS which gets run in to by oncoming baserunners trying to break up a double play(Jose Reyes last year was it?) And Segura is a SB threat so he's also diving in to 2b or 3b numerous times(heck 1b even) and that brings a lot of serious injury potential. Think about Weeks and his ankle? What if that kind of injury is all it takes for Segura to be a .750OPS 40SB 3WAR SS down to a .645OPS 15SB 0WAR SS?

 

I just feel and fear that athletic type SSs like Segura will run in to more injuries throughout their career. I'd personally let Segura play through his first year of Arb and at that point no matter the additional cost for what would have been year 4,5,6,7 in this extension talk, proceed then with extension talks and give him what the value he's worth for 5years then.

 

As to the Castro concerns and how Starlin regressed and Segura can become the next Castro, I never liked Castro and kinda felt he was an I in team. I think Segura is a teammate first. Plus, Chicago surrounded Castro after his extension with an absolute we are rebuilding phase which means are teams are going to suck for the next few years. Castro is paid and to me if you're expected to lose and paid already being the face of the franchise for years to come, why go out there put 100% on the line? Give your 100% effort? I'd imagine in towns he maybe hated traveling in just doing whatever possible to get back to his hotel the quickest.

 

The point in saying this? Well Melvin and Co. have given the we are in it to win speech. So already Segura has more on the line even if he's extended this spring.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Not at all too soon. Some people (analysts) think he's a top 5 SS right now. Lock him up Doug.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not at all too soon. Some people (analysts) think he's a top 5 SS right now. Lock him up Doug.

I think that, for the term of any likely contract extension, Segura's athleticism & plus range will still feature on defense. I don't really think he's the .850 OPS guy he was in the first half of last season, but imo he's definitely not the .600-ish OPS guy he was in the second half. I'd guess he's a .775-.825 OPS hitter going forward. Combine that with what I believe will be plus defense (& obviously baserunning too) for the term of the contract extension, & I'd love to see the Brewers buy out 2 or 3 seasons of free agency. But if Segura & his agent weren't open to it last season, I won't be holding my breath.

[RockCoCougars]

I highly doubt that an extension is going to buy out free agent years, so I really don't see the point unless the deal is very team-friendly. A heavily backloaded 5/$25 deal would be my absolute max, and I'm not sure that I'd do that, as it's twice what Lucroy got. Even if Segura was a perennial all star moving forward, what would his realistic max earnings in arbitration be for that period? Maybe $50 or $60 million. If he flamed out or suffered serious injury, an extension would be really looking bad down the road. Seems to me to be a pretty big risk to go for a 50 percent off deal five years from now. Since they didn't seem to have much interest in an extension last year, I have a feeling that Segura and his representation saw what Freeman got, and they aren't going to like any realistic proposal.

[HiAndTight]

I agree it's too early. Forget a Braun-like deal, even a Lucroy-like one seems premature. I'd wait a full year.

 

Really? A 5 year 11 million dollar extension is premature? That's likely not an issue since I can't imagine his agent would even entertain such an extension....and if he did, he should lose his job.

 

I think people can get way too caught up with looking at Baseball through a spreadsheet. Scouting and being able to have some ability to project has to enter into it. A 23 year old rookie wore down after playing a full season in the states, winter ball and then a full big league season.

 

I thought it was pretty obvious he has the bat speed, athletic ability to play SS as well as the arm. If there was any chance he'd take a Braun like deal, I doubt the Brewers would have to think too long about it.

 

I think he's likely asking for something closer to Castro. That I'd certainly want to see more before giving him, but not 8/45 and definitely not 5/11.

[JohnBriggs12]

If he has another great season, pay him the going rate even if that's considerably more than it would be today. My point is that it's premature to lock into a guy for 5-6 years after one season. I've seen too many one year wonders who scouts loved too turn into pumpkins when opponents adjusted.

[monty57]

If there was any chance he'd take a Braun like deal, I doubt the Brewers would have to think too long about it.

 

I think he's likely asking for something closer to Castro. That I'd certainly want to see more before giving him, but not 8/45 and definitely not 5/11.

 

If they are going to extend him, do it now, as waiting for arby generally means you're signing him to a deal at nearly free agent cost. I agree with H&T. I don't know what the dollar figures would be in today's baseball, so I'll just say I'd definitely sign him to a "Braun-type" deal (the first one he signed in pre-arby), and would not sign him to a "Castro-type" deal. If we could get him on a "Lucroy-type" deal, we should be doing cartwheels. Other than missing the entire season, there is very little chance Lucroy doesn't play up to his contract.

 

Any early extension transfers risk from the player to the team, which is why there should be a substantial monetary discount in the deal, and the deal needs to "buy out" some free agent years. That said, teams need to take some risk, and I would generally rather take the risk on getting a talented young player at a discount for an extended period over paying market value for a veteran in free agency.

 

Small market teams build the franchise around good, young players with eight or so years of "control," They fill holes with free agents.

[monty57]

I have a feeling that Segura and his representation saw what Freeman got, and they aren't going to like any realistic proposal.

 

That is a concern. However, after Atlanta signed Freeman, they signed Teheran, who is a better comp to Segura because of service time (Teheran has 1.062 years, Segura 1.065):

 

Teheran will receive a $1MM signing bonus and earn $800K in 2014. His salary jumps to $1MM in 2015, $3.3MM in 2016, $6.3MM in 2017, $8MM in 2018 and $11MM in 2019. There is also a 2020 option, but I'm unsure of the value. That allows the Braves potentially two years of free agency, while guaranteeing $32.4MM over six seasons.

 

That's probably the baseline the two sides will use. Teheran had a better year last year, and was much more highly touted as a prospect, so a Segura deal would probably be a little less than the aforementioned numbers.

 

My guess: six years, $26MM with a seventh year option with a $1MM buyout, so total guaranteed money is $27MM. The Brewers "control" him through most of his prime, and he's still able to sign another free agent deal in his early 30's. (He'll be 24 on March 17)

 

Something like that is the deal I'd sign if I were the Brewers. Since Segura seemingly rebuffed the Brewer advances last season, he may be looking at a Castro-type deal, which to me is off the table. However, the talks were when Segura was hitting like a Hall of Famer. Maybe his second half has brought him back to earth a bit. It is good to hear that they're talking extension again, as I figured he'd go the Fielder route and opt to go season-to-season until he hit free agency.

 

edit: fixed typo

[fondybrewfan]

My guess is that nothing gets done and I am OK with that. Lets see how the kid does in Year #2. Yes is price will probably go up from here but there will also be less risk involved after seeing him perform for another year. Hopefully after 2014 DM can look at extending both Segura and Peralta with good years behind them.

 

I am just a little too nervous about the 2nd half drop in performance for Segura to be totally on board with an extension right now. Hopefully he just wore down but why even take the risk that he simply outperformed his long term potential in the 1st half?

[PrinceFielderx1]

If we wait another year to see what he has you can bet his price will be higher because this kid will just get better and better. Pay the kid Castro money if you need to, but get him signed. Segura is no fluke and considering how hard it is to find a SS with power and his build this is a no brainer.

[Roderick]

Segura is no fluke and considering how hard it is to find a SS with power and his build this is a no brainer.

 

He is not a fluke in that he deserves to be on the field, but I think there is legitimate question on whether he is a .700OPS versus a .775 OPS player. I wouldn't pay him as if he were a for sure .775OPS player, and if that doesn't get the deal done, so be it. We do have five more years of his services guaranteed, that is a lot of time for circumstances to change.

[monty57]

If we wait another year to see what he has you can bet his price will be higher because this kid will just get better and better. Pay the kid Castro money if you need to, but get him signed. Segura is no fluke and considering how hard it is to find a SS with power and his build this is a no brainer.

 

Everything has a price and a value. I don't like it when people have a "whatever it takes" approach, because that assumes the price will be substantially higher than the value, which is never a good option.

 

Segura's value is uncertain at this point. No one doubts the potential, but no one knows for sure how he will progress. Right now, Segura bears a lot of "risk." He's going to make around $550k this year, and if something happens so that he doesn't live up to his potential, when his baseball career is over he'll have to look for a "real job."

 

When offering a guaranteed contract, the team transfers that risk from the player to the team. The player now knows that no matter what, he's going to get paid a lot of money. That's a big leap of faith for the team, and a small-market team like the Brewers cannot take a "whatever it takes" attitude. They need to assign some type of value to the player, and only sign him if he agrees to their terms. Otherwise, go year-to-year and probably trade him prior to him walking as a free agent. Emotion has to be left out.

 

I brought up the Teheran deal because they're pretty good comps, and the deal was just signed. Since Segura has the "tools" and has shown the ability to be a good MLB player, I would like to see them extend him, but only if they can do a deal similar to (and probably a little less than) Teheran's.

[HiAndTight]

If he has another great season, pay him the going rate even if that's considerably more than it would be today. My point is that it's premature to lock into a guy for 5-6 years after one season. I've seen too many one year wonders who scouts loved too turn into pumpkins when opponents adjusted.

 

I don't think I can recall seeing a player who was a top prospect and had such a good year as Segura did, become so terrible that he wasn't worth 11 million from ages 23 to 28.

 

Even Gomez was worth substantially more than that before ue figured it out.

 

But using your logic, is it fair to say that you thought the 8/45 they gave to Braun was a bad idea?

[endaround]

If he has another great season, pay him the going rate even if that's considerably more than it would be today. My point is that it's premature to lock into a guy for 5-6 years after one season. I've seen too many one year wonders who scouts loved too turn into pumpkins when opponents adjusted.

 

I don't think I can recall seeing a player who was a top prospect and had such a good year as Segura did, become so terrible that he wasn't worth 11 million from ages 23 to 28.

 

Even Gomez was worth substantially more than that before ue figured it out.

 

But using your logic, is it fair to say that you thought the 8/45 they gave to Braun was a bad idea?

 

Nick Markasis is sad you don't think of him anymore.

[DocLuna7]

FWIW, I just heard DM on WTMJ and he mentioned that he hasn't even talked about this with Segura's agent. He said that he would potentially see if it's something that they may be interested in at some point.