Gilbert Lara discussion; Update: Brewers sign Lara for $3.2 million (post #77)

[reillymcshane]

Says that the Lara signing by the Brewers will not have any affect on future signings:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-call-up-jimmy-nelson-to-start-for-marco-estrada-b99308616z1-266698581.html

 

I assume that means the team didn't go more than 5% over their allotment. Sweet.

[TheCrew07]

Of course the problem here and which TH glossed over is that they can't sign anyone else to any kind of realistic bonus without getting taxed unless they trade for more space. I just don't want this to be a 1 and done type thing, I'm greedy, gimme more talent!

 

The other thought which occurred to me is that I wouldn't want any kid held back in the DSL just because the Brewers need to field a team if he's capable of having success in AZ or MT. What kind of player can you seriously sign for <$10K? Off the top of my head I'm unable to recall 1 Latin player of note signing for that little. I hope they get more space and bring in a couple of decent under the radar types so no players have their progression held up simply due to roster concerns. I guess the Brewers could could always back fill those slots with players whom have already washed out of other organizations to keep the progression of legit prospects moving forward. I just hope they do the right thing, for example I wouldn't want Joantgel Segovia to stick around in the DSL for a second season simply because they didn't have another capable OF on the roster.

 

Speaking of Segovia, I would love to know what his bonus was as we didn't even find out about his signing until this post by MH. The 2 higher profile signings last year in Mallen and Pierre have been solid yet unspectacular in their debuts thus far.

[reillymcshane]

Of course the problem here and which TH glossed over is that they can't sign anyone else to any kind of realistic bonus without getting taxed unless they trade for more space. I just don't want this to be a 1 and done type thing, I'm greedy, gimme more talent!

 

The other thought which occurred to me is that I wouldn't want any kid held back in the DSL just because the Brewers need to field a team if he's capable of having success in AZ or MT. What kind of player can you seriously sign for <$10K? Off the top of my head I'm unable to recall 1 Latin player of note signing for that little. I hope they get more space and bring in a couple of decent under the radar types so no players have their progression held up simply due to roster concerns. I guess the Brewers could could always back fill those slots with players whom have already washed out of other organizations to keep the progression of legit prospects moving forward. I just hope they do the right thing, for example I wouldn't want Joantgel Segovia to stick around in the DSL for a second season simply because they didn't have another capable OF on the roster.

 

Speaking of Segovia, I would love to know what his bonus was as we didn't even find out about his signing until this post by MH. The 2 higher profile signings last year in Mallen and Pierre have been solid yet unspectacular in their debuts thus far.

I was under the impression that once we passed our slot allowance, we couldn't add any more. That's why I was expecting another trade - to free up some money for a few modest signings. Otherwise, it's Lara and bunch of non prospects for 10k a piece.

[TheCrew07]

Penalty wise that's true, the penalty is enforced regardless. I'm alright with the penalty, but I didn't think that would stop them from then going out and getting more space to sign a handful of players to $50kish contracts. I'll have to go back and reread the articles again.

[TheCrew07]

Penalty wise that's true, the penalty is enforced regardless. I'm alright with the penalty, but I didn't think that would stop them from then going out and getting more space to sign a handful of players to $50kish contracts. I'll have to go back and reread the articles again.

 

reillymcshane was right per this quote:

The other important factor is this: Once a team has spent its available signing bonus pool, it can no longer acquire additional slot values

That's all she wrote then... I sincerely hope they advance players as they usually would and find a different way to backfill those roster positions.

[brewcrewdue80]

I made mention of this in last year's international thread, in that, I'm all for a 1 and done signing if the individual just oozes talent/potential. Especially if it exceeds in upside what the other options possess. Stars/Super Stars can carry a Franchise. I'm happy to have a Super Boom potential guy signed. All I've read is he's already shown power to hit HRs in games already. That's a fact, not a different prospect who was say at the bottom of a top 30 who has potentially projection to hit for power. Nevermind also being able to actually hit. I'll take Lara and his already possessing Power and just hope the hit tool advances enough to make it for a big cost.

I get it's a 1 succeeds vs. trying to find 1 out of 3-7 to succeed. But we're talking about a 16yr who already has something figured out which means he's ahead of the curve from winding up a success story, vs. winding up a bust. It's also a positive to read he has a decent arm and fielding. If I browse MLB.com's top 100 prospect ranks and see their grades via tools, I'm looking at Lara's grades like this:

Hit 60 Power 60 Run 50 Arm 55 Field 55

 

Now go through their top 100 prospects and the grades and here's one: Addison Russell SS

Hit 60 Power 60 Run 55 Arm 60 Field 55 Russell is #11 on their top 100 list.

Another:

Hit 55 Power 40 Run 60 Arm 45 Field 55 Who's that? Alen Hanson #53 on MLB's prospect list.

 

To me I'm thinking we are staring at a top 15-50 prospect down the road in Lara if his grades hold up. And if he exceeds them? Look Out!

 

I feel far more comfortable with this 1 single signing vs. say last year's duo additions.

Mallen's grades were of essentially below avg today to being average in the future with just his arm having future above avg. That must look like 40-50s across the line with 55/60 in Arm grade.

Pierre as well had grades of below avg all around today, and future grade being avg at best with no tool being above.

So far I stare at both having under .650 OPS Mallen 21Errors in 35games

Pierre though a positive is he has 3HRs 6SBs only 2Errors(but from the OF position so less is to be expected)

 

Does it mean anything at this point? No. But I'll be interested to follow Lara's Power and if he proceeds through the DSL when he gets there quicker than Mallen or Pierre.

 

For sake of reference, Arcia played 64games in the DSL with an .845OPS and only 15Errors total. More BBs than SOs and 6HRs. Mallen and Pierre have some work to do to get on that pace.

[ewitkows]

Is he playing in the DSL yet?

[nate82]

Is he playing in the DSL yet?

Not until next year.

[Eye Black]

McCalvy article on Gilbert Lara including mention of his assignment to instructs this Fall and the possibility of him skipping the DSL level next season.

 

Lara pays first visit to Miller Park

By Adam McCalvy / MLB.com

 

MILWAUKEE -- Gilbert Lara attended his first Major League Baseball game on Monday. The Brewers hope it's the first of many.

 

Lara, the 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic who signed a record-breaking contract earlier this month, visited Miller Park for the first time and took a round of batting practice. It was general manager Doug Melvin's first look at a player in whom the Brewers have invested $3.1 million, nearly four times more than any other international signee in franchise history.

 

"Impact bat," Melvin said. "He's 16 years old, coming in here and hitting balls into the second deck. The last round, he said, 'I'm going to go to right field,' and he started hitting line drives to right field."

 

Zack Minasian, the Brewers' pro scouting director, and special assistant Craig Counsell were among the club officials who looked at Lara in January, when the Brewers emerged as clear favorites to formally land him at the opening of the international signing period on July 2.

 

Lara was the fourth-best prospect available per MLB.com's rankings.

 

Because of his age, Lara will not be eligible for the Dominican Summer League until next season, but Melvin suggested that he may be advanced enough to skip that level entirely. The Brewers will make that determination after evaluating him in their instructional leagues -- in Arizona this fall, followed by a similar program in the Dominican Republic over the winter.

 

Lara was wide-eyed at Miller Park.

 

"I feel really good to be sitting in a big league stadium with big league players," he said, with Eduardo Brizuela, the team's director of Latin American operations, serving as translator.

 

Lara wants to stay at shortstop, though some have speculated that as his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame continues to fill out, he could wind up at third base. Melvin compared his frame with younger versions of Alex Rodriguez, Alex Rios and Juan Gonzalez.

 

Lara said that he models his game after Rodriguez's.

 

"He's a very humble young boy," Brizuela said. "He carries himself very well. He comes from a good family, and his trainer, Jaime Ramos, is one of the big agents down in the Dominican Republic. He's a guy that has trained him very well and has shown him how important family is and how you work hard to get where you want to be."

 

That process formally began on Monday.

 

"I'm hiding a little bit of my emotion," Lara said. "I'm really happy to be here right now, really excited to be here."

 

Before Lara, the richest international bonuses in Brewers history went to shortstop Franly Mallen and outfielder Nicolas Pierre, each of whom signed for $800,000 last year. Before that the record was the $750,000, given to pitcher Rolando Pascual in 2005 during a period in which the Brewers closed their Latin American academy and focused on signing fewer but higher-profile players.

 

 

Also, this Tweet contains a few seconds of video of Gilbert Lara taking BP and this Tweet mentions that one of those balls ended up below Bernie's Slide.

[brewcrewdue80]

So are we talking about a kid who may make the Team by age 18/19 potentially? I got a feeling that 3rd swing was the one that produced the Bernie Slide Ball. That swing is the one that has me drooling about his potential.

[Eye Black]

So are we talking about a kid who may make the Team by age 18/19 potentially? I got a feeling that 3rd swing was the one that produced the Bernie Slide Ball. That swing is the one that has me drooling about his potential.

I think the earliest possible would be age 21 even if he developed into an absolute beast. Most teams typically don't rush the development of Dominican teenagers. Dominican players have a lot of pressures and distractions as they start their professional careers. They are trying to develop as baseball players while also becoming accustomed to living (and communicating) in the United States, not to mention being away from their families. With Miguel Sano the Twins sent him to both levels of Rookie ball for his first two seasons and then were basically advancing him 1-2 levels a year. Without the injury he likely would have been in MLB by his age 22 season (unless he would have been a September call-up this year in his age 21 season).

 

If Gilbert Lara developed into a top-50 prospect in baseball, I think this could be a realistic progression.

 

2015 - Age 17 - Rookie (AZL Maryvale)

2016 - Age 18 - Rookie (Helena) / Low-A (Wisconsin)

2017 - Age 19 - Low-A (Wisconsin)

2018 - Age 20 - High-A (Brevard County) / AA (Biloxi)

2019 - Age 21 - AAA (Nashville or Fresno or somewhere in between) / MLB (Brewers)

[igor67]

Way too early to start throwing out arrive by dates. Bradley and Jungman afterall were college guys and fast movers. Arcia is a good comparison as well, he lost that entire year to injury. Guys who can legitimately debut that young are just so uncommon, and just about all of them were touted as mega talents (Griffey, A-rod, Harper). If Lara had that level of talent right now he'd have been the unanimous top prospect. I'm content with the ceiling part of which is the possibility of a young debut and 20 year career. For right now though I just want to see him play.

[ewitkows]

He could start out in the DSL league also.

[Eye Black]

Way too early to start throwing out arrive by dates.

Just to be a little more clear, I was attempting to temper "arrive by" expectations by offering up the absolute best case scenario for a 16 year old Dominican ballplayer that turns into a superstar. Honestly, I was probably even a little aggressive with the estimate in the best case scenario. Regardless, I wasn't trying to pin realistic debut expectations on a 16-year old ballplayer entering professional baseball since those probably fall somewhere closer between 23 and never. Anyway, agreed on your point of looking forward to enjoying the development of a young talented ballplayer and being able to "dream on" what could be no matter how realistic.

[brewcrewdue80]

So, I am looking at last year's top ten international prospects on MLB.com only one lists as reaching at 2016 at age 20. Rafael Devers has climbed from DSL to the next level. The Yankees put Leonardo Molina in their rookie League. Based on that we're looking realistically at a 2018 arrival for Lara with '17 being early it would seem.

 

I think Odor from Texas was an international signing who made it up at 20?

 

Just anxious to have someone in the system who really is gleemed over like the Pirate's Polanco/Cardinals Tavaras/Reds Stephenson/and the Cubs multiples Kris Bryant has Braun like Numbers at a younger age!

[HiAndTight]

So, I am looking at last year's top ten international prospects on MLB.com only one lists as reaching at 2016 at age 20. Rafael Devers has climbed from DSL to the next level. The Yankees put Leonardo Molina in their rookie League. Based on that we're looking realistically at a 2018 arrival for Lara with '17 being early it would seem.

 

I think Odor from Texas was an international signing who made it up at 20?

 

I'm not sure what you mean here.

 

But the soonest he could be ready? 19-20. Profar, Bogaerts, Beltre...there have been quite a few Latin American players who have come up at those ages.

Even American players have come up at those ages in recent years.

 

If he really dominates, a Sept callup at 21 and a full season at 22 would be really optimistic.

[brewcrewdue80]

If you look at mlb's prospect rankings. The have an ETA on each player profile. Just saying There's only 1 thus far with an ETA of 2016. Meaning 2017 or later for the rest. So I could assume Lara may be on a similar schedule as the rest meaning 2018 as an earliest arrival date.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Brewers didn't spend $3 million+ on a player to spend 5-6 years in the minors, if they're right on this kid I predict he will be up more in the 17-18 range, if the kid can play they will move him thru the minors as necessary.

[TheCrew07]

The Brewers didn't spend $3 million+ on a player to spend 5-6 years in the minors, if they're right on this kid I predict he will be up more in the 17-18 range, if the kid can play they will move him thru the minors as necessary.

 

Everything about your post is so wrong it's not worth getting into so I'll just say there's no way he's going from the DSL to Milwaukee in just 2 full baseball seasons.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

It's the Brewers. They don't like to bring anyone up until they're 25

[TigerUppercut]

It's the Brewers. They don't like to bring anyone up until they're 25

 

Even if this comment wasn't completely grounded in hyperbole, for a franchise like the Brewers, wouldn't this be the best approach? In theory, at that age, the player is still ascending and you get all of his peak years under team control. I'd much rather take that than rush someone and sacrifice production at a position for a few years as a result.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Brewers didn't spend $3 million+ on a player to spend 5-6 years in the minors, if they're right on this kid I predict he will be up more in the 17-18 range, if the kid can play they will move him thru the minors as necessary.

 

Everything about your post is so wrong it's not worth getting into so I'll just say there's no way he's going from the DSL to Milwaukee in just 2 full baseball seasons.

 

 

Just to clarify I meant 2017 or 2018, if the kid is a stud.

[HiAndTight]

The Brewers didn't spend $3 million+ on a player to spend 5-6 years in the minors, if they're right on this kid I predict he will be up more in the 17-18 range, if the kid can play they will move him thru the minors as necessary.

 

 

I doubt the Brewers care if it takes 6 years or 3. They spent 3 million on the hope that he'd be an impact player down the road. Looks like he'll start in AZ next year, but the rest will depend on his own progression. If they rush him up and he struggles for 2-3 years, it'll cost them a lot more than 3 million.