Gilbert Lara discussion; Update: Brewers sign Lara for $3.2 million (post #77)

[StearnsFTW]

It's about time something like this happens. IF it happens.

[logan82]

There are limits on international spending determined by the team's record the previous year.

[jerichoholicninja]

There are limits on international spending determined by the team's record the previous year.

 

There are only limits in the sense that there will be penalties for going over but the limits won't prevent a team from over-spending in one particular offseason. The Yankees have already said they are going to spend much more than they are allowed this offseason which makes me think this guy's going to be a Yankee. Whatever the Brewers offer the Yankees will just tack on another 500K or so to get him to sign.

[brewcrewdue80]

There are limits on international spending determined by the team's record the previous year.

 

There are only limits in the sense that there will be penalties for going over but the limits won't prevent a team from over-spending in one particular offseason. The Yankees have already said they are going to spend much more than they are allowed this offseason which makes me think this guy's going to be a Yankee. Whatever the Brewers offer the Yankees will just tack on another 500K or so to get him to sign.

 

This is true on the Yankees, and nobody knows who exactly they are tied in to if Lara is one of them. I've read the Yankees are planning on spending around 12-15mil in the international signing. They will be so far over that the penalty will be 100% I believe. So if they get in a bidding war with Milwaukee 3.2mil for Milwaukee and your 500k assumption its 3.2mil Milwaukee 7.4mil Yankees for this kid.

Now, like I said I dunno if Lara is part of their 12-15mil plan in place which makes a few 100k extra nothing to worry about. But if he's a newcomer to their list of guys the Yanks are adding 7mil to their spending for him.

 

This is some exciting stuff to watch unfold, I hope Milwaukee comes out the winner because believe you/me I will definitely follow Lara from day 1 as a Brewer in anticipation of a great future ahead.

[BallFour]

If the numbers are in fact true of 3.2 Million and the Brewers pool is only 2.2 they will have to forfeit any signings over 250K in the 2014-2015 signing period. So look for the Brewers if they sign Lara to the figure above to sign some more high end guys to compensate for the penalties of not being able to sign high end talent in 2014-2015.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the numbers are in fact true of 3.2 Million and the Brewers pool is only 2.2 they will have to forfeit any signings over 250K in the 2014-2015 signing period. So look for the Brewers if they sign Lara to the figure above to sign some more high end guys to compensate for the penalties of not being able to sign high end talent in 2014-2015.

 

Yes true but at the same time they can trade a player for slot money to bring them to all the way up to 3.3mil. And no penalty at all. Or at the very least under the penalty of where they can't sign a player for over 250k. Which can't be much if they don't put any more money in to the international signings. At which point I think the penalty would be 500k max. Considering 800k set the team record I don't think being limited to 500k max would be a problem for the reward Lara can bring.

[HiAndTight]

This realy isn't like flippimg a soft verbal in recruiting CFB, so I'm curious why some like Crew is so pessimistic about this going through?

[Roderick]

This realy isn't like flippimg a soft verbal in recruiting CFB, so I'm curious why some like Crew is so pessimistic about this going through?

 

Well it pretty much is like that. Right now it is only a verbal promise, since you can't officially sign until July. The fact that the deep pocket teams know the team and the amount to beat for Lara only makes it easier for them to negotiate him away. And if you are a teen with no money, there is no way you don't take the biggest contract offer, even if he had a verbal deal with Milwaukee - and I wouldn't blame him.

[HiAndTight]

This realy isn't like flippimg a soft verbal in recruiting CFB, so I'm curious why some like Crew is so pessimistic about this going through?

 

Well it pretty much is like that. Right now it is only a verbal promise, since you can't officially sign until July. The fact that the deep pocket teams know the team and the amount to beat for Lara only makes it easier for them to negotiate him away. And if you are a teen with no money, there is no way you don't take the biggest contract offer, even if he had a verbal deal with Milwaukee - and I wouldn't blame him.

 

Yeah, I get that the team knows the figure amount and which team they're competing against, however I don't recall one of these players reneging on an agreement.

 

You see half the ESPN 300 flip(an exaggeration obviously). You don't see a lot of these Latin American players agree to a contract prior to official deadline to sign and then back out and sign with another team?

 

So...no, I wouldn't really say it's like that. It seems like when a player and team reach an agreement prior to the official date to sign, they end up signing. I'm not saying it's unheard of, but I think this fear that the Yankees are going to come in and pay 12 million for a 16 year old kid is extremely overblown.

[Eye Black]

This realy isn't like flippimg a soft verbal in recruiting CFB, so I'm curious why some like Crew is so pessimistic about this going through?

 

Well it pretty much is like that. Right now it is only a verbal promise, since you can't officially sign until July. The fact that the deep pocket teams know the team and the amount to beat for Lara only makes it easier for them to negotiate him away. And if you are a teen with no money, there is no way you don't take the biggest contract offer, even if he had a verbal deal with Milwaukee - and I wouldn't blame him.

Aside from the verbal promise, I don't think it is very similar. The negotiations involving top talent in the DR typical involve the player's trainer. Both the team and the trainer, who represents several young ballplayers, have a reciprocal motivation to maintain a good relationship. Once an agreement is struck the trainer begins counting on his (often large) percentage of the player's contract. I also don't worry about teams knowing the "amount to beat" since I don't think that information would have been difficult for other teams to obtain regardless of whether this news went public or not. By the time a verbal agreement is made, I would guess the trainer has fielded several offers and has a very good understanding of his players market value.

[TheCrew07]

Negotiations can and sometimes do fall apart before the deal is signed, but that's not the "if" factor here.

 

The Brewers have historically done next to nothing internationally, only signing extreme value players for the most part like Escobar, and Aoki (which was more lucky than good since they didn't even scout him in person). Rolando Pascaul was the biggest bonus baby the Brewers had ever signed prior to 2013, and the organization has never even spent over a million on a single player. Wily Peralta ($450,000) is the only player out of Latin America with a significant bonus who's made it to MLB. They've also never gone way over a slot value in the early rounds or exceeded a pool value since I've been following the Brewer's minor league system.

 

The Brewers have chosen to spend the overwhelming majority of their player budget on the MLB club, right up to the red line, which left little wiggle room for them to creatively pursue raw impact talent through other means. Many of us have been hoping the Brewers would change their tact on this issue and look to spend their money in a different way, trying to go after long-term solutions rather than short term patches.

 

Last year's international signing period was a good start, if this deal actually does happen I would be thrilled that the organization is finally making a serious effort to expand its talent base. After all, I've been clamoring for this kind of change for years, it just seems almost too good to be true. I mean what's next? The organization actually starts cycling talent and turning over the MLB roster?

 

I just don't want to count my chickens before they are hatched, I'm cautiously optimistic at this time.

[danzig6767]

 

I just don't want to count my chickens before they are hatched, I'm cautiously optimistic at this time.

 

It also may be a sign of the extra revenues that the team is bringing in. That they can afford to both spend 90-100 million on the big league roster and still have money left to invest on international signings like this.

 

I'd love to know the overall team revenue numbers. Attanasio certainly isn't cheap, but i do think he's done well from buying the team.

[Mass Haas]

Disciples of Uecker Podcast: Episode 9

 

Host Vineet Barot is joined by Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com to discuss the Brewers farm system and Yirver Gilbert Lara.

[HiAndTight]

 

I just don't want to count my chickens before they are hatched, I'm cautiously optimistic at this time.

 

It also may be a sign of the extra revenues that the team is bringing in. That they can afford to both spend 90-100 million on the big league roster and still have money left to invest on international signings like this.

 

I'd love to know the overall team revenue numbers. Attanasio certainly isn't cheap, but i do think he's done well from buying the team.

 

I'd say if he wasn't making a penny, he'd have to be thrilled with his investment in the Brewers right now. I could look, but off the top of my head, I'd guess he'd probably be able to make 220 million dollars on the Brewers if he sold them(or the ownership group would).

 

And I do believe he's making money on the team year to year...good on him though. He certainly could make more money if he didn't sign Garza this past off-season trying to compete, or Lohse the year before. Clearly the money is equal to winning for him. Really lucky to have him...even if I think he pushes Melvin into some poor decisions at times.

[kalle8]

my sources (don't laugh!) tell Lara current price is around 3.5 M, the Brewers are still in, in the last two showcases Lara was fantastic and the price skyrocketed.

[TooLiveBrew]

my sources (don't laugh!) tell Lara current price is around 3.5 M, the Brewers are still in, in the last two showcases Lara was fantastic and the price skyrocketed.

I'd just like to add that I got curious & checked with Kalle about this. I don't want to compromise the discretion Kalle has to exercise, but I do want to add that I have no reason to believe his source is anything but rock solid.

[reillymcshane]

My biggest concern is the Yankees. They are reportedly going to spend upwards of $20 million on international spending this year as a way to replenish their farm system. They're going to take the big salary cap hit and the penalties in one chunk, partially for fear that 2015 will see an international draft. This way, they snagged as much talent as possible before international talent is more regulated.

 

If the team struggles early in 2014, I wouldn't be surprised to see them double down on the strategy, investing even more in the top players. I could easily see them jumping back in on Lara or any other prospects.

[JackNicholson1974]

So it sounds like this guy agreed to sign wit the Brewers for 3.2 million IF no other team offers him more, is that accurate?

[And That]

That's probably true, though if they had a handshake agreement with the Brewers, they might give the Brewers the opportunity to match the best offer from another team.

 

Or, maybe not. Which is why I refuse to get my hopes up for this.

[JackNicholson1974]

When I hear things like "sources say" price is up to 3.5 and that Brewers are still in, it tells me that this guy is moving on. Which then leads me to the article this winter...why ever report that there is a handshake deal if the chances are it will never hold up? It just seems so stupid to me.

[And That]

I don't blame Kiley McDaniel for reporting it - if that's what the buzz was and if there at least some truth to it, I don't see the harm. Reporting is what it is. The job of the baseball fan who has interest in these matters is to realize what the reporting means, which in this case is that the Brewers had a leg up at some point in the past few months, and may or may not still.

 

While I don't have any hope that the Brewers will sign the guy, they are one of the few teams that would appear to have a chance. So I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up signing him, either.

[brewcrewdue80]

My biggest concern is the Yankees. They are reportedly going to spend upwards of $20 million on international spending this year as a way to replenish their farm system. They're going to take the big salary cap hit and the penalties in one chunk, partially for fear that 2015 will see an international draft. This way, they snagged as much talent as possible before international talent is more regulated.

 

If the team struggles early in 2014, I wouldn't be surprised to see them double down on the strategy, investing even more in the top players. I could easily see them jumping back in on Lara or any other prospects.

 

 

This plan the Yankees have. Let's think like them for a moment. When they go out there buy the entire top Dozen or 15 Interantional players when the signing period opens, the call for a draft due to how little impact the penalties effect the Yankees vs. the smaller market clubs will grow. And suddenly the international draft will be pushed forward very quickly maybe even by 2015. Well the Yanks will be the last team to corner the International player market and really not see a penalty aside from money come 2015 when they can draft a player probably in the 20-22nd range...something 250k they couldn't get that kind of player otherwise. Win win for Yanks.

[HiAndTight]

When I hear things like "sources say" price is up to 3.5 and that Brewers are still in, it tells me that this guy is moving on. Which then leads me to the article this winter...why ever report that there is a handshake deal if the chances are it will never hold up? It just seems so stupid to me.

 

 

I mean ABSOLUTELY zero disrespect when I say this, but when I hear a reputable site say that he has an agreement in place with the Brewers and then no further reports disputing that other than a poster on this board(who may very well have a source that knows or represents Lara, but I have no way of knowing this) that doesn't really tell me anything.

 

And you realize you're complaining about a report that you believe to be false that has in no way been proven false yet, right?

 

I'm still feeling pretty confident that Lara ends up in the Brewers organization.

[jvrocksaz]

Gilbert Lara mention (among other Brewers items).

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/quick-hits-drew-nelson-smith-marquis-hall-july-2.html

[Crash2303]

Assuming we sign our 2nd pick of the draft, SS, Jake Gatewood, do you think this could negatively influence the potential Gilbert Lara signing? Might Lara look at the Brewers and see a talented logjam at SS- and think there might be a better opportunity somewhere else?

Franly Mallen- DSL

Jacob Gatewood- R

Tucker Neuhaus- R+

Orlando Arcia- A+

Yadiel Rivera - A+