Dustin Ackley

[reillymcshane]

With Cano in Seattle, Dustin Ackley has no chance at playing 2B. I know Seattle has been playing him in the OF, and plan on having him there in the future. However, his play last year in the OF was pretty bad - so I don't know if he's got a future there.

 

I've always liked Ackley, and would consider him a good 'buy low' guy if Seattle decides he doesn't have a future as a starter. He's struggled the last couple of years, but he has a nice swing.

 

Obviously, if the Crew acquired Ackley, he could be a candidate for 2B. But what about 3B? He's never played there in the minors or majors. Does he have the arm to play there? He always graded out well as a second baseman, but I haven't seen him play defense enough to know if he would work at 3B. Any thoughts?

 

A-Ram could easily be gone after 2014, and there's no one on the horizon that could take over for him. Heck, you could even switch A-Ram to 1B now if felt Ackley could handle 3B.

 

I'm not sure Ackley would hit enough at 3B. But if he could hit .280 with 12-15 HR at 3B, that would be pretty decent (assuming his defense was okay).

 

Dave Schoenfeld at ESPN included Ackley as a guy who in the 'make-it-or-break-it' seasons.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/43894/five-players-in-make-or-break-seasons

 

Ackley will be 26 this year, so maybe it's his turn to put it all together.

 

Just trying to think about the future a little - trying to see alternatives. Perhaps Ackley doesn't have the arm for 3B - which makes this a fruitless discussion. But I thought I'd see if others had an opinion on the subject. Thanks.

[RockCoCougars]

Ackley is kind of the Mariner's version of Rickie Weeks. I could see him as a good buy low, but I'd doubt if the Mariners would sell low.

[LouisEly]

Ackley is actually not that comparable to Weeks. The Brewers sunk cost in Weeks is $11M this year, possibly $11.5M next year, and the 2nd overall pick in the 2004 draft. Ackley's sunk cost for the Mariners is $1.7M for 2014 and the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 draft with no financial obligation (arbitration-eligible) beyond this year.

 

Did they still use the old bats in college in 2009? I thought they changed before that. Quite a power dropoff for Ackley in pro baseball compared to college.

[RockCoCougars]

Ackley is actually not that comparable to Weeks. The Brewers sunk cost in Weeks is $11M this year, possibly $11.5M next year, and the 2nd overall pick in the 2004 draft. Ackley's sunk cost for the Mariners is $1.7M for 2014 and the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 draft with no financial obligation (arbitration-eligible) beyond this year.

 

Did they still use the old bats in college in 2009? I thought they changed before that. Quite a power dropoff for Ackley in pro baseball compared to college.

 

OK, a younger, cheaper version of Weeks. Ackley is on the same trajectory- a disappointing high draft pick 2B. Different style players, but Ackley's stats over his first couple of seasons are pretty similar to Rickie's.

[DoubleSwitch]

I think he has some potential, but I really doubt the Mariners are going to give him away. He's fairly cheap and versatile enough to get some ABs and either build up some value or stick somewhere else on the diamond. If the Mariners are making a trade it's for a bat ready to step into the lineup this year. The only guys on our team they'd even want are Gomez and Lucroy and no way they're getting moved.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think he has some potential, but I really doubt the Mariners are going to give him away. He's fairly cheap and versatile enough to get some ABs and either build up some value or stick somewhere else on the diamond. If the Mariners are making a trade it's for a bat ready to step into the lineup this year. The only guys on our team they'd even want are Gomez and Lucroy and no way they're getting moved.

 

Oh they'd take an arm for sure. The back end of their rotation is wide open. Not that I'd deal an Estrada straight up for Ackley. Maybe package Estrada with a prospect for Smoak and Ackley.

[Bnowell4evr]

I think he has some potential, but I really doubt the Mariners are going to give him away. He's fairly cheap and versatile enough to get some ABs and either build up some value or stick somewhere else on the diamond. If the Mariners are making a trade it's for a bat ready to step into the lineup this year. The only guys on our team they'd even want are Gomez and Lucroy and no way they're getting moved.

 

Oh they'd take an arm for sure. The back end of their rotation is wide open. Not that I'd deal an Estrada straight up for Ackley. Maybe package Estrada with a prospect for Smoak and Ackley.

 

I can't see the Mariners trading both Smoak and Ackley even after they signed Nelson Cruz. Right now they have Smoak, Morrison, Hart, Ackley and Saunders to play 1B/LF/CF/RF/DH. Adding Cruz or bringing back Morales frees one of them to trade in a package with a guy like Nick Franklin who's now blocked from the Robinson Cano signing. I don't know if that's what I'd be looking for if I was gonna trade Estrada but it's tempting.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think he has some potential, but I really doubt the Mariners are going to give him away. He's fairly cheap and versatile enough to get some ABs and either build up some value or stick somewhere else on the diamond. If the Mariners are making a trade it's for a bat ready to step into the lineup this year. The only guys on our team they'd even want are Gomez and Lucroy and no way they're getting moved.

 

Oh they'd take an arm for sure. The back end of their rotation is wide open. Not that I'd deal an Estrada straight up for Ackley. Maybe package Estrada with a prospect for Smoak and Ackley.

 

I can't see the Mariners trading both Smoak and Ackley even after they signed Nelson Cruz. Right now they have Smoak, Morrison, Hart, Ackley and Saunders to play 1B/LF/CF/RF/DH. Adding Cruz or bringing back Morales frees one of them to trade in a package with a guy like Nick Franklin who's now blocked from the Robinson Cano signing. I don't know if that's what I'd be looking for if I was gonna trade Estrada but it's tempting.

 

I wouldn't give up Estrada for those two. Smoak and Ackley may be upgrades at those two positions but losing Estrada is definitely weakening the rotation.

[RockCoCougars]

Remember when everyone laughed when the Nationals asked for Weeks for Chad Cordero? I'm sure that the Mariners would do the same if we expected to get Ackley for Estrada. As mentioned above, he's still fairly young, cheap, and versatile. I doubt if the Mariners would give up on him yet, even though he's been pretty brutal so far.

[endaround]

It is amazing how many Brewer fans denigrate Estrada. He could easily be Milwaukee's most valuable starter next season if gets to 180 innings. His ZiPs rate projections match Gallardo's.

[jerichoholicninja]

It is amazing how many Brewer fans denigrate Estrada. He could easily be Milwaukee's most valuable starter next season if gets to 180 innings. His ZiPs rate projections match Gallardo's.

 

I just don't get it either and I've pointed out the stats plenty of times. The guy is as good, if not better, than Gallardo. I was just reading some preseason fantasy stuff from before last year. Estrada was the only starter in MLB in 2012 to have a k/9 above 9 and a bb/9 below 2. If you went to a k/9 above 8 and bb/9 below 2 the list is Estrada, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee.

[umphrey]

I think the Mariners would be willing to trade Ackley, because he doesn't really have a real path for playing time and he isn't helping them much right now. I don't think they would do it without upgrading their MLB roster though. Khris Davis is who I would target if I were Seattle, because he can play a better left field than Ackley.

[Warning Track Power]

I think the Mariners would be willing to trade Ackley, because he doesn't really have a real path for playing time and he isn't helping them much right now. I don't think they would do it without upgrading their MLB roster though. Khris Davis is who I would target if I were Seattle, because he can play a better left field than Ackley.

So having said that....if you are the Brewers would you be willing to deal Estrada and Davis for Smoak and Ackley? Smoak starts at 1B, Ackley at 2B, Gindl/Schafer move into LF, Thornburg into Estrada's SP role.

 

Lineup of:

 

SS Segura

2B Ackley

RF Braun

3B Ramirez

C Lucroy

CF Gomez

1B Smoak

LF Schafer/Gindl

 

Rotation of:

Lohse

Garza

Gallardo

Peralta

Thornburg

 

Moreover, what about Gallardo? Would you do Gallardo and maybe a lesser prospect for Smoak and Ackley?

[endaround]

Smoak is just a guy who might be the LH part of a decent platoon. He has 1942 PAs with a line of .227/.314/.386. That is a guy who is on the verge of getting non tendered, not someone you give up talent for.

 

And keep in mind he is actually older than Ike Davis.

[jerichoholicninja]

So having said that....if you are the Brewers would you be willing to deal Estrada and Davis for Smoak and Ackley? Smoak starts at 1B, Ackley at 2B, Gindl/Schafer move into LF, Thornburg into Estrada's SP role.

 

The would be a horrible trade for the Brewers.

[MillerParkSouth]

Seriously. I wouldn't trade Davis OR Estrada for Smoak and Ackley, let alone both. They're just guys at this point in their 'careers'.

[Warning Track Power]

So having said that....if you are the Brewers would you be willing to deal Estrada and Davis for Smoak and Ackley? Smoak starts at 1B, Ackley at 2B, Gindl/Schafer move into LF, Thornburg into Estrada's SP role.

 

The would be a horrible trade for the Brewers.

Totally agree with you. I am not advocating for it. Just asking questions as to whether anyone thinks the Brewers are actually moving forward by dealing Estrada to "potentially" fill two holes on the IF long-term.

[brewmann04]

I would think you need to keep Rotation guys and can fill in the position guys,especially when the Starting pitching is pretty thin.

[umphrey]

I would only trade with the Mariners if we can swoop in and get 1 player they don't have room for anymore. If it turns into a big trade with a lot of players moving, I'd rather not take out their garbage for them.

[HiAndTight]

It is amazing how many Brewer fans denigrate Estrada. He could easily be Milwaukee's most valuable starter next season if gets to 180 innings. His ZiPs rate projections match Gallardo's.

 

I just don't get it either and I've pointed out the stats plenty of times. The guy is as good, if not better, than Gallardo. I was just reading some preseason fantasy stuff from before last year. Estrada was the only starter in MLB in 2012 to have a k/9 above 9 and a bb/9 below 2. If you went to a k/9 above 8 and bb/9 below 2 the list is Estrada, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee.

 

So are we to ignore that he's going to be 31 and has yet to throw more than 138 innings, and threw just 128 last year, while Gallardo has been a workhorse the last 5 years?

 

I think it's more amazing how there have been three posts where people have said he's as good or better than Yo based on two seasons with 100+IP and none with morr than 138.

 

He's a great pitcher...for the back of the rotation. But I certainly don't think teams would be in a rush to trade for him, so I dont think it's denigrating him to compare the aforementioned trade scenario with the Cordero/Weeks scenario.

[brewmann04]

Would Ackley be more valuable than a starting pitcher right now to the Brewers.

[jerichoholicninja]

It is amazing how many Brewer fans denigrate Estrada. He could easily be Milwaukee's most valuable starter next season if gets to 180 innings. His ZiPs rate projections match Gallardo's.

 

I just don't get it either and I've pointed out the stats plenty of times. The guy is as good, if not better, than Gallardo. I was just reading some preseason fantasy stuff from before last year. Estrada was the only starter in MLB in 2012 to have a k/9 above 9 and a bb/9 below 2. If you went to a k/9 above 8 and bb/9 below 2 the list is Estrada, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee.

 

So are we to ignore that he's going to be 31 and has yet to throw more than 138 innings, and threw just 128 last year, while Gallardo has been a workhorse the last 5 years?

 

I think it's more amazing how there have been three posts where people have said he's as good or better than Yo based on two seasons with 100+IP and none with morr than 138.

 

He's a great pitcher...for the back of the rotation. But I certainly don't think teams would be in a rush to trade for him, so I dont think it's denigrating him to compare the aforementioned trade scenario with the Cordero/Weeks scenario.

 

I've posted it many times. Estrada's rate stats as a starter are all the same or better than Gallardo's. I'll buy the innings arguments but those have been limited by two hamstrings injuries and I'll take 138 innings of Estrada a year over 200 innings of a lot of other pitchers.

[endaround]

Would Ackley be more valuable than a starting pitcher right now to the Brewers.

 

No. Ackley isn't much of an improvement on Gennett right now. Ackley Zips wOBA is .306 and Gennett's is .301. Sure moving Ackley out of Seattle might help, but so will platooning Gennett with Weeks.

[fleehaw]

I'll see your Ackley (and I like it for the right price) and I'll raise you Franklin. I'd imagine that Franklin would be at worst, an average defensive 3B. Ramirez could move to first while backing up/mentoring Franklin. LF would boil down to some combination of Gindl/Schafer/Halton.

 

Franklin appears to be the odd man out after the Cano signing. In addition, the M's have Bloomquist as their utility. What they are missing is a (another) right-handed power hitting OF. Enter Khris Davis. A power core of Cano, Seager, Hart, and Davis, not to mention Morrison and Smoak is pretty balanced and should be pretty decent.

 

I doubt Davis would be enough to nab Franklin. Thornburg/Davis should be plenty although I'd rather one of Jungmann, Helweg, or Burgos take Thornburg's place.

[Outlander]

Franklin actually is a decent guy to target versus the Davis/Smoak/Ackley's of the world. He would provide some roster flexibility that the Brewers could certainly use and if not 3B does provide a decent option if Gennett falters. They could maybe get rid of Bianchi as well since Franklin could play short. Don't really like trading away Davis and don't really know what it would take but Ramirez at first and Franklin at third sounds more appealing than most of the names suggested at first the last few months. Maybe the Mariners would have interest in Estrada.