Keith Law/ESPN farm system ranking (Jan. 2014)

[jerichoholicninja]

Had the Brewers made a different decision in even 30% of these 1st round drafts, their system would look completely different than it currently does.

 

You could say that for most clubs.

 

Yes, they are blowing their first rounds picks but they are blowing every other pick too. It seems most other franchises can turn later draft picks into major leaguers. The Brewers not so much. Take a look at the Rays and the round they were drafted: Price (1), Hellickson (4), Moore (8), Cobb (4), Zobrist (6), Jennings (10), and even consider James Shields (16).

[homer]

The fact that scouting is an extremely inexact science means you should never talk in absolutes.

[xisxisxis]

Well the Grand Conspiracy against the Brewers Farm System continues....

 

BaseballProspectus has ZERO brewer prospects in their top 101. Given they have 101 compared to Law's 100 they are slightly more pessimistic about the Brewers prospects. Let the name calling and criticism of BP commence....

[Daubs]

If Keith Law were actually great at what he does and well-respected in MLB front offices, he would be working in one currently

 

That isn't true at all.

 

 

Correct. He STILL wouldn't be working in one currently.

 

Actually - Law interviewed with Houston a couple years ago for a front office position. He sent out a tweet that he chose to stay with ESPN after a "difficult decision".

 

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/156773020025892864

[TooLiveBrew]

The fact that scouting is an extremely inexact science means you should never talk in absolutes.

I see what you did there

[trwi7]

Actually - Law interviewed with Houston a couple years ago for a front office position. He sent out a tweet that he chose to stay with ESPN after a "difficult decision".

 

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/156773020025892864

 

And he's also worked in the Blue Jays front office. The thing is, I would rather stay writing for ESPN too. The job security of ESPN is much better than the front office of an MLB team and that would be a huge deciding factor for me.

[homer]

Actually - Law interviewed with Houston a couple years ago for a front office position. He sent out a tweet that he chose to stay with ESPN after a "difficult decision".

 

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/156773020025892864

 

And he's also worked in the Blue Jays front office. The thing is, I would rather stay writing for ESPN too. The job security of ESPN is much better than the front office of an MLB team and that would be a huge deciding factor for me.

 

 

Job security is right. He'll never get fired for being wrong.

[homer]

Well the Grand Conspiracy against the Brewers Farm System continues....

 

BaseballProspectus has ZERO brewer prospects in their top 101. Given they have 101 compared to Law's 100 they are slightly more pessimistic about the Brewers prospects. Let the name calling and criticism of BP commence....

 

If you had taken the time to actually read through the thread you would see that hardly anyone is saying the Brewers have a very good farm system or even a decent farm system. In fact, most are saying that while Law is correct he is a moron. I fall into that camp. I am not disputing the fact that the Brewers have one of the worst systems in baseball. I do, however, think Law is a putz.

[LouisEly]

2013 - no 1st round pick

2012 - Coulter & Roach (27th and 28th overall)

2011 - Jungmann and Bradley (12th and 15th overall)

2010 - Covey (14th overall, did not sign due to health issues)

2009 - Arnett, Kent Davis, Heckathorn (26th, 39th, and 47th overall)

2008 - Lawrie, Odirizzi, Frederickson (16th, 32nd, and 35th overall)

2007 - Laporta (7th overall)

2006 - Jeffress (16th overall)

2005 - Braun (5th overall)

 

2009 the Brewers missed on a few after the Arnett pick, but that will be forever remembered as having the pick right after Mike Trout was drafted.

2009 will forever be remembered as the year the Brewers got screwed out of Trout because the Yankees signed Texeira and Sabathia and somehow Texeira was "ranked" ahead of Sabathia.

 

You mentioned the 2010 draft. The two picks after Covey haven't made it past A-ball yet and one is out of baseball (a Cubs draft pick for those who think the Cubs have been doing a great job identifying young talent). Only two of the eight picks after Covey ever cracked the Top 100 prospect list but one was suspended the entire 2013 season and the other is now off the list after a .580 OPS in AA this past year. Wimmers blew out his arm right away and has yet to recover. The Angels had five picks in the first round after Milwaukee and drafted all HS players; one hasn't made it out of rookie ball, two haven't made it past A ball, a fourth profiles like Gennett (2B, numbers are driven by batting average, rarely walks, average numbers in hitters leagues), and the only one who cracked the Top 100 as mentioned above put up a .580 OPS in AA this past year. The Rays had three picks in the first round after the Brewers, all HS players, and none have made it past A-ball yet much less the Top 100. Yes, Biddle and Lee are nice pitching prospects but 12 teams passed on them after the Brewers did. At least 23 players were picked before Snydergaard, Ranaudo, Walker, and Castellanos after the Brewers passed on them. The Rays passed on Snydergaard twice and Walker and Castellanos three times, the Angels passed on Snydergaard four times and Walker/Castellanos five times. If the Brewers missed on those guys, what were the Angels and Rays doing?

 

All in perspective.

[danzig6767]

2013 - no 1st round pick

2012 - Coulter & Roach (27th and 28th overall)

2011 - Jungmann and Bradley (12th and 15th overall)

2010 - Covey (14th overall, did not sign due to health issues)

2009 - Arnett, Kent Davis, Heckathorn (26th, 39th, and 47th overall)

2008 - Lawrie, Odirizzi, Frederickson (16th, 32nd, and 35th overall)

2007 - Laporta (7th overall)

2006 - Jeffress (16th overall)

2005 - Braun (5th overall)

 

Since Braun's selection 9 drafts ago, the Brewers haven't made a 1st round pick in the top 5. Teams with highly regarded systems in recent years, the Royals and Pirates, have made SIX top 5 overall picks in the same timeframe. I'm not saying the only way to build a great system is to pick at the top of every draft, as the Cardinals never pick in the top 5. But, when you don't get to pick an obvious stud, you have to be able to identify the best signable impact talent available much more consistently than the Brewers have done recently. That's how minor league systems improve.

 

Of all of Seid's drafts, the Jungmann and Bradley debacle stings most. That was a huge chance for the Brewers to potentially land an impact player and instead both look more like busts.

[TheCrew07]

2013 - no 1st round pick

2012 - Coulter & Roach (27th and 28th overall)

2011 - Jungmann and Bradley (12th and 15th overall)

2010 - Covey (14th overall, did not sign due to health issues)

2009 - Arnett, Kent Davis, Heckathorn (26th, 39th, and 47th overall)

2008 - Lawrie, Odirizzi, Frederickson (16th, 32nd, and 35th overall)

2007 - Laporta (7th overall)

2006 - Jeffress (16th overall)

2005 - Braun (5th overall)

 

I appreciate the effort you put into that post, and your main point which I didn't quote, but I disagree, teams don't have to draft in the top 5 to get legitimate impact talent. To be sure the best college talent is gone in those picks, but there is plenty of talent to be had later in the draft. That is the main reason that once the Brewers started drafting in the teens they needed to look to HS talent... A couple of years ago I went and looked at the last 20 drafts, I think it was for Jungmann and Bradley draft, but I listed the impact talent selected from rounds 11-20. I'm not going to recreate the wheel and do all that work again, but off the top of my head there were only something like 2 college players selected by any team in those rounds which made a significant MLB impact.

 

Futhermore Seid's first draft was 2009, and Covey would have been a horrible pick regardless if he signed or not. Jack Z at least took swings at potential impact players like Lawrie, Odorizzi (not Odirizzi), and Jeffress before he left for Seattle. Seid didn't take any potential impact players in the first round until 2012... Yes hitting on 1st round picks is extremely important, but there are also opportunities later in the draft to identify and select impact talent. The Brewers have only hit on 1 of those guys, Corey Hart. Once again the biggest draft problem has been that the Brewers haven't sprinkled players with any kind of impact potential throughout the draft. Z was always conservative after the top couple of rounds and Seid's drafts have been extremely conservative as well.

 

The issues in play are much deeper than the 1st round; such as the Brewer's willingness to go over slot before the pool was introduced, the general lack of activity in Latin America, and how the franchise has operated since 2006 are all significant factors which should be considered when discussing the state of the farm system. There isn't any single issue which has been the smoking gun, and nothing about building an organization is black and white, it's all different shades of grey. Every move builds off of the ones that came before it, continually trading prospects for short term solutions, regardless of how those prospects turned out, left the cupboard bare. And when they weren't drafting exceedingly well the organization's choice to invest most of their player budget into the MLB payroll left little wiggle room to be creative later in the draft and in Latin America with over slot and international signings.

 

With the organization focus shifting almost exclusively to "proven" MLB talent, they didn't leave the resources in place necessary to support the team long term. Every year it has been about maximizing the number of wins for the MLB club utilizing veteran acquisitions of various kinds. I argued at the time that spending $36 on Chapman would have been much better than spending that same money on Wolf. Once again all I think the Brewers have really done is severely limit the ceiling of the MLB roster by acquiring so many averagish and declining SPs over the years around 3 very short term solutions who pitched a total of about 4.5 years between them.

 

Look at the NL ranking for the pitching staff since 2006, I've posted it many times, but either ESPN or MLB's stat pages will give you everything you need to illustrate how horrible the overall organizational strategy in regards to pitching has been.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I didn't have the time to look into anything but first round picks with my last post of this thread, but my main point was that unless you're Astros-bad for several years and always picking the no-brainers that make up everyone's top 5, teams have to be good at picking the best signable talent that's available...whether that's in the middle of round 1, 2, 8 or 20 in any given draft. TheCrew, I think we agree, we're just writing it a bit differently.

 

The reason I only used the 1st round picks in my post is the fastest way for overall minor league systems to look alot better in the eyes of the people who look at them for a living is to hit consistently with 1st round picks. A 1st round pick is supposed to be a guy that will be at minimum an above-average MLB player once he's ready, who is talented enough to be a star. Obviously impact talent can be found in later rounds of the draft, whether it be signability, development lapses, or just lack of ability to predict everything. That first round pick should always be made on who each organization thinks has the best chance to be a star in the big leagues, based on their scouting and evaluation. If a team can't hit on 1st round selections with any regularity, I don't trust them to find gems in later rounds of the draft with any consistency, either.

 

You mentioned the 2010 draft. The two picks after Covey haven't made it past A-ball yet and one is out of baseball

 

There's always 1st round busts for every team and teams missing on great players - my point is that the Brewers haven't had what can be considered a big "hit" in the first round since 2008, and they traded Lawrie/Jake O. for veteran pitching. The jury's definitely still out on what those two will end up doing in the big leagues, also. Their last 1st round "hit" to contribute in Milwaukee was Braun in 2005. That's way too long for a small market team.

 

all in perspective is right - the teams you mentioned as having passed over all the 2010 talent like the Brewers have also drafted significant contributors to their teams since 2005...something the Brewers can't say. You reference the Cubs but in 2010, wasn't Hendry still drafting? Not surprised their 1st round pick that year hasn't done much of anything. Not to mention the Angels currently have a poorly regarded farm system, and Tampa Bays' system has thinned out a bit too - largely because they really swung and missed in 2010.

[TheCrew07]

If a team can't hit on 1st round selections with any regularity, I don't trust them to find gems in later rounds of the draft with any consistency, either.

 

I have nothing to add other than that was an excellent point.

[DoubleSwitch]

The one thing that really confused me about Keith Law's ranking was high up he had Delmonico. Everything I've read about him so far has been subpar hit tool, won't be able to stick at third defensivly, and not enough power to play first in the majors. A better prospect than Jimmy Nelson? really?

[monty57]

Although I know it's the case, it still depresses me when I see these reports. The write-up is spot on, and if all we're going to graduate from the farm are "average-ish MLB guys," and we can't afford top free agents, then it's hard to see how we'll have stars on the MLB team in the future, especially with the reluctance to trade anyone from the MLB roster until they are nearly free agents.

[502 to Right]

Not having top draft picks is no excuse. The highest pick the Red Sox have had in the last 10 years is 7 (last year). Most all of their top picks in that time have been in the 20's, and they have top prospects coming out of their ears.

 

 

Edit - Keith Law has the Red Sox ranked at 5 in his survey.

[SoupTown]

A double AMEN... even triple to 502.

 

It seems to me our methods must be wrong. Blind luck (no method other than following a Baseball America list) would surely snare a top prospect ONCE IN A WHILE.

[sargennm]

I agree with the fact the Brewers organization lacks high ceiling talent and deserves to be near or at the bottom of any rankings that value high impact potential. I don't have an issue with the ranking nearly as much as I do with the source.

 

As I have invested more time following prospects the past couple of seasons, Keith Law has quickly become my least favorite "pundit", and there really isn't a close second. What bothers me isn't his opinion or an inferiority complex that he hates the Brewers, but I just find him to be both condescending and reckless in his approach. I have pretty much completely disregarded him since this series of comments on his ESPN chats last Summer...

 

Jason (Milwaukee)

Thoughts on the brewers draft picks so far?

 

Keith Law (1:25 PM)

Not good. The one pick I really liked, Devin Williams, hasn't pitched well (not a big deal) and I've heard some negative stuff about his makeup as well.

 

Ross (Milwaukee, WI)

You mentioned in your last chat you have heard talk of makeup concerns with Devin Williams. Is that anything you can expand? Or were the talks meant to be off record?

 

Keith Law (2:50 PM)

Can I defer answering that for a few weeks? What I was told might need to be off record for the time being.

 

In my opinion this type of commentary with no supporting evidence is a grave disservice to a young prospect. Especially in an industry (prospect ranking) that is fueled by buzz, gossip, and hearsay. Why unnecessarily hang the vague makeup issues tag on a kid before he has even completed his first season of professional baseball when you aren't even willing to commit to providing any evidence supporting your potentially slanderous allegations? To put it plainly, I have zero respect for Keith Law's approach to reporting on prospects.

 

This story doesn't exactly prove anything, but I met Devin at a Cardinals game in St. Louis toward the end of the season (he grew up in the STL suburbs). He was sitting in the bleachers with a buddy and was decked out fully in Brewers stuff, I might add. He was very quiet, very respectful of everyone around him and was very nice to me when he found out I was a Brewers fan and I started asking him questions. His buddy gave me a hard time about not wearing any gear myself, and I said something about leaving my Braun jersey at home. He played that cool too (really just gave a nervous smile to me when I said it.) It was 15 minutes near the guy, not exactly a ton of time, but ... I have a hard time believing that bad makeup stuff.

[Roderick]

Well the Grand Conspiracy against the Brewers Farm System continues....

 

BaseballProspectus has ZERO brewer prospects in their top 101. Given they have 101 compared to Law's 100 they are slightly more pessimistic about the Brewers prospects. Let the name calling and criticism of BP commence....

 

Actually Law did the 10 prospects that just missed the list, so now he doesn't have any Brewers in his top 110, so he is back to being the most pessimistic.

 

edit here is his Brewers top 10:

1. Tyrone Taylor, CF

2. Devin Williams, RHP

3. Nick Delmonico, 3B/1B

4. Michael Reed, OF

5. John Hellweg, RHP

6. Jimmy Nelson, RHP

7. Mitch Haniger, OF

8. Orlando Arcia, SS

9. Victor Roache, OF

10. Hunter Morris, 1B

[reillymcshane]

Well the Grand Conspiracy against the Brewers Farm System continues....

 

BaseballProspectus has ZERO brewer prospects in their top 101. Given they have 101 compared to Law's 100 they are slightly more pessimistic about the Brewers prospects. Let the name calling and criticism of BP commence....

 

Actually Law did the 10 prospects that just missed the list, so now he doesn't have any Brewers in his top 110, so he is back to being the most pessimistic.

 

edit here is his Brewers top 10:

1. Tyrone Taylor, CF

2. Devin Williams, RHP

3. Nick Delmonico, 3B/1B

4. Michael Reed, OF

5. John Hellweg, RHP

6. Jimmy Nelson, RHP

7. Mitch Haniger, OF

8. Orlando Arcia, SS

9. Victor Roache, OF

10. Hunter Morris, 1B

 

The thing to be optimistic about is that 7 out of 10 of these guys were in A ball last year. Unless you really have a pedigree and/or eye-popping stats, it's hard to be looked at as a Top 100 guy if you haven't proven yourself against higher competition. With some luck, a few of these guys might be Top 100 guys in a year or two after they've shown their mettle against AA and AAA competition.

 

Otherwise, the only guys at AA/AAA that anyone thinks is halfway special is probably Nelson (some people like Hellweg, despite his scary peripherals). But neither Hellweg or Nelson is a that hot of a prospect. That they aren't in the top 100 (or 110) isn't a shocker.

[jjfanec]

Not having top draft picks is no excuse. The highest pick the Red Sox have had in the last 10 years is 7 (last year). Most all of their top picks in that time have been in the 20's, and they have top prospects coming out of their ears.

 

 

Edit - Keith Law has the Red Sox ranked at 5 in his survey.

 

Are the Red Sox getting guys late who they signed way over slot? I dont follow the draft to know how much that still happens but I know there were teams that were able to draft late and still get big names because they could offer big deals. Does that still happen?

 

Now the Brewers drafting has still been poor just wondering on the Red Sox

[trwi7]

Red Sox get a little help with Boegaerts still being eligible as a rookie. They also have a group of terrific pitching prospects, 4 finished in AA or higher (3 in AAA) and the other, Trey Ball was the 7th overall pick in 2013.