Keith Law/ESPN farm system ranking (Jan. 2014)

[Roderick]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10354393/houston-astros-top-farm-system-rankings-mlb

 

30. Milwaukee Brewers

 

There may not be a player in this system who projects as an above-average player in the majors; the best bets are all teenagers who played in low Class A or below in 2013, and none is close to a lock to get there.

 

The system lacks ceiling and it lacks depth beyond reliever candidates and likely fourth outfielders, with nothing in the middle of the diamond and no starting pitching of note.

 

Edit - Here is the paragraph on his criterion.

To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)

[craigharmann]

Nice!

[Fear The Chorizo]

Well, since Keith Law hates the Brewers system I actually feel a whole lot better about it. Not saying the Brewers shouldn't be in the bottom half of MLB farm systems, but recent big league promotions and no 2013 1st round pick probably count for a ton with no 2nd year of development to see from the younger prospects. I don't have Insider so can't read the whole article, but since he ranked the Astros 1st my guess is teams that have picked in the top 5 consistently the past few seasons are his highest ranked, with teams like the Rays, Royals, Twins and Cardinals sprinkled in because they each have a couple of Law's top 50 prospects in their organizations.

 

His description of the Brewers isn't accurate, as Victor Roache isn't a teenager. The Brewers didn't have a 1st rounder last year so that probably docked them 5-10 spots in Law's rankings to begin with. Players like Roache, Coulter, Taylor, etc are going to have a big say to how the system is regarded after this season. I agree that a couple of impact starting pitching arms sprinkled though the system would be nice...Arnett, Covey, and the Jungman/Bradley 1st round drafts continue to sting.

 

If you take Thornburg, Peralta, Nelson, Gennet, Davis, Hellweg, Schafer, Gindl out of a farm system that wasn't highly regarded to begin with (I assume he did since all these players graduated into the majors last season), don't have a 1st round pick in 2013, and have uneven starts in the careers of Coulter and Roache, no wonder the Brewers drop so low.

[JohnBriggs12]

Considering the middle of the diamond on the major league roster consists of 4 players who are all under 30 and who are under team control from 3 to 6 more seasons, it's hardly a crisis situation that their are no real middle of the diamond prospects above low A ball. There's 3 more drafts and 3 more years to develop the likes of middle of the diamond types like Taylor, Arcia and Coulter before the first of those four, Gomez, hits FA following the 2016 season. That's not even mentioning the ability to acquire other team's prospects at those positions via trade.

[Outlander]

One thing he hits upon is the relief pitching. I don't think the Brewers or organizations in general get enough credit for developing relief pitching. I don't know if it is because they are deemed failed starters (Potentially Thornburg, Smith, Hellweg, Burgos, Fiers, Pena), older when they reach the majors (Kintzler, Henderson, Hand, Wooten) or they just are not valued at the minor league level. The Brewers are able to splurge on a guy like Garza because they are paying peanuts to their pen and the highest paid guy is Gorz and he is gone after this year. The Brewers are set up nicely to have a low salary pen for years to come and that is important for a small market team like the Brewers.

[Oxy]

If Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett can continue their success from last year, I may officially give up ever looking at MiLB rating stuff again. Of course, the same could have been said last offseason about Mike Fiers' 2012 season, and all the pundits mostly turned out to be right about him.

[molitor fan]

I dare anyone to dig into Law's archives and find more than a handful of things he has been accurate about in the last several years....the guy is the biggest fraud in sportswriting, and that is saying a mouthful

[brewmann04]

Not sure about Law but he pretty spot on with the lack of potential starters.

[SRB]

I generally find Keith Law to be a dunce, but hard to disagree really. The Brewers have not had a hit with a top-top pick in quite a while at this point. Would be nice for a high upside guy like Roache to burst onto the scene but if that's the best we have going then yeah, it's a bad farm system right now.

 

Thankfully it's a fluid thing, as Houston going from worst to first in just a couple years is proof.

[SoupTown]

Years ago Law wrote of the problems of the Brewers... wasting money on aged, no good, free agents. And he specifically pointed on Jose Hernandez. I think this was during the 2002 season. Jose had an ops over .800 (I think) and played solid D at shortstop - and if I recall the contract was like $3 mill a year. He was a Brewer from 2000 - 2002. From Wikipedia:

 

Primarily a shortstop, Hernández played every position except pitcher. His most productive season came in 2001 with Milwaukee, when he posted career highs in home runs (24), RBI (77), hits (151), doubles (26) and games (152). Despite his .249 average, he posted a .356 on-base percentage. In 2002, Hernandez struck out 188 times, one shy of the MLB record. Then-Brewers manager Jerry Royster kept him out of the lineup in four of the last five games of the season so he would not break the dubious record. He led the majors in highest strikeout percentage (35.8%).[1] In 2002, Hernández hit 24 home runs with 73 RBI and a career-high .288 average

 

Now Law (an East Coast teams lover) proceeded to explain, in his writings, the (good) Yankee way (compared to the Crew). I wrote him a short email explaining some bloated, unproductive Yankee contracts. And I explained than Hernandez was a good contract.

 

Keith Law wrote back to me and said: 'I am right. And you are wrong. And that is because I went to an Ivy League college'

 

Strange email exchange.

[Eye Black]

I agree with the fact the Brewers organization lacks high ceiling talent and deserves to be near or at the bottom of any rankings that value high impact potential. I don't have an issue with the ranking nearly as much as I do with the source.

 

As I have invested more time following prospects the past couple of seasons, Keith Law has quickly become my least favorite "pundit", and there really isn't a close second. What bothers me isn't his opinion or an inferiority complex that he hates the Brewers, but I just find him to be both condescending and reckless in his approach. I have pretty much completely disregarded him since this series of comments on his ESPN chats last Summer...

 

Jason (Milwaukee)

Thoughts on the brewers draft picks so far?

 

Keith Law (1:25 PM)

Not good. The one pick I really liked, Devin Williams, hasn't pitched well (not a big deal) and I've heard some negative stuff about his makeup as well.

 

Ross (Milwaukee, WI)

You mentioned in your last chat you have heard talk of makeup concerns with Devin Williams. Is that anything you can expand? Or were the talks meant to be off record?

 

Keith Law (2:50 PM)

Can I defer answering that for a few weeks? What I was told might need to be off record for the time being.

 

In my opinion this type of commentary with no supporting evidence is a grave disservice to a young prospect. Especially in an industry (prospect ranking) that is fueled by buzz, gossip, and hearsay. Why unnecessarily hang the vague makeup issues tag on a kid before he has even completed his first season of professional baseball when you aren't even willing to commit to providing any evidence supporting your potentially slanderous allegations? To put it plainly, I have zero respect for Keith Law's approach to reporting on prospects.

[sveumrules]

The thing that bothers me about Law (not that his analysis of the current state of the system is incorrect) is that he tends strongly towards absolutism. This attitude seems increasingly prevalent in the "sabrmetric community" which confuses me somewhat as I always thought the whole point was to look at the game in a different way and keep an open mind toward a myriad of possibilities previously unconsidered. Seems kind of hard to do that when you already know you are right about everything.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Keith Law were actually great at what he does and well-respected in MLB front offices, he would be working in one currently - not filling dead-of-winter space on the BOOYAH network's MLB page during Super Bowl week.

[trwi7]

If Keith Law were actually great at what he does and well-respected in MLB front offices, he would be working in one currently

 

That isn't true at all.

[homer]

If Keith Law were actually great at what he does and well-respected in MLB front offices, he would be working in one currently

 

That isn't true at all.

 

 

Correct. He STILL wouldn't be working in one currently.

[TooLiveBrew]

The thing that bothers me about Law (not that his analysis of the current state of the system is incorrect) is that he tends strongly towards absolutism.

This is exactly how I feel about Law, & his current assessment of the Brewers' farm -- unfortunately, I think he hit the nail on the head this time.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

In this year's Sporting News baseball preview, they had the Brewers farm system at 28. I think the Yankees and Dodgers were behind us. This gives me a chance to rant about our development program. We tend to send position players to the majors who swing at bad pitches, run the bases poorly, and are defensive liabilities. We tend to send pitches to the majors who don't have a change-up, have trouble controlling their breaking ball, and are not aggressive with their fast ball. It has been this way for so long that I think we are short-changing our prospects. We need stronger fundamentals.

[Roderick]

No Brewers ranked in his top 100. From his chat:

 

 

Norman (NY)

 

 

I'm not shocked that no Brewers made the list but did any come close? Where would you rank Tyrone Taylor?

Klaw

(1:13 PM)

 

 

Nobody came close. That's a really weak system.

[TooLiveBrew]

homer's signature sums up quite well what's wrong with Law's approach:

 

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006

[trwi7]

I'm sure many other scouts that don't write for a national website are wrong all the time and strong about their opinions as well, we just never see them because theirs aren't written on said national website. It's not like he doesn't acknowledge that he's been wrong about players. In pretty much every chat for the last 6 months he's said how wrong he was about Paul Goldschmidt. He says he's been wrong about Chris Sale. I'd rather have a writer who's strong in his convictions and then admit if he's wrong than have a writer who's wishy washy or all sunshine and rainbows on a ton of prospects.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd rather have a writer who's strong in his convictions and then admit if he's wrong than have a writer who's wishy washy or all sunshine and rainbows on a ton of prospects.

This is why I like Sickels so much. He's a very happy medium between these two extremes.

[homer]

I'm sure many other scouts that don't write for a national website are wrong all the time and strong about their opinions as well, we just never see them because theirs aren't written on said national website. It's not like he doesn't acknowledge that he's been wrong about players. In pretty much every chat for the last 6 months he's said how wrong he was about Paul Goldschmidt. He says he's been wrong about Chris Sale. I'd rather have a writer who's strong in his convictions and then admit if he's wrong than have a writer who's wishy washy or all sunshine and rainbows on a ton of prospects.

 

I'd rather have Bernie Pleskoff.

[TheCrew07]

I'd rather have Bernie Pleskoff.

 

Anyone associated with MLB or MiLB reads way too much like what the player's family or high school coach would say about him for me.

 

It makes sense because MLB has a vested interest in keeping fans excited about their team and the organization's future. I read all of their opinions, just like I would anyone else, but I don't put much stock in any of those guys with their "sunshine and rainbows" approach to prospect discussion.

 

It will be interesting to see if the MLB draft and prospect team comes more to the middle with Jim Callis joining them, it would be a welcome change from my perspective.

 

Pretty much everyone knows I'm not a big fan of Keith Law, and I think he has the Brewer's system about 4-8 spots too low relatively speaking, but it was a pretty accurate assessment of where the organization is at. I don't glean any sort of joy from having a negative outlook towards Milwaukee's future, but when I watch minor league games I'm looking for guys that standout, players that do things differently from their peers. To get into affiliated ball you already have to be fantastic baseball player, these guys are already the best, but what we're looking for is the "best of the best", players that can get to MLB and make an impact. I've watched a ton of T-Rat games since they moved to WI and there haven't been very many Brewer prospects whom stood out, but I could rattle off 30 names off the top of my head of prospects from other organizations who really impressed me for various reasons. If a player doesn't noticeably standout in one way or another at that level, he simply doesn't have much of a chance to be a productive MLB player.

 

I'd much rather read honest assessments of what the player is now than glowing reviews of what that player could be. I care about and lean towards tools, but I'll also support a guy like Kris Davis if I think he can productive. For example, and I've said this before, I really like Tyrone Taylor's potential, but he's not legitimately in the discussion to be in the top 5 CF prospects in the game. However I think he's our best prospect, and if our best isn't able to crack a top 5 at particular position, then the farm system is awfully weak. Our best pitching prospects, Thornburg and Nelson wouldn't even make anyone's top 20 pitching prospect discussion.

 

That doesn't mean I won't root hard for our guys, sometimes I worry that I care too much about the Brewers' farm system and get too attached to the guys, but I also want the discussion to be grounded in reality and not over the top fanboyisms because these prospects are "our guys". I'll share an example. I was really high on Cody Scarpetta from the draft up until I saw him pitch and then unfortunately I cooled on him extremely quickly. He didn't throw very hard, was already filled out so he wasn't going to add velocity, and couldn't locate consistently... other than his curve, there was wasn't much to like about him in person. I saw 6 or 7 of his starts in WI, he just wasn't impressive at all. I always hoped I would turn out to be wrong about him, but how many posters were putting him high on top 25 lists when he clearly wasn't performing? If he doesn't have the stuff nor the ultimate results, why would he be in anyone's top 25, what could we legitimately hang our hat on?

 

From this year's team I felt the same way about Clint Coulter as a C, he looked overmatched in every aspect of the game, offensively and defensively, which is why after just a couple of games I posted that the Brewers would be better served switching him to a different position. C is the most demanding position on the field, maybe by moving him elsewhere his offensive talent would have a chance to shine through. If he truly made the most improvement of any player from instructs to spring training last year and he was still way below average for an A ball catcher, it's probably time to consider a different position for him. I'm not questioning Clint's talent or work ethic, rather the Brewer's knack for getting a player into his proper position early in his minor league career so he can be relatively polished by the time he gets to MLB and not have to be trained on the job like Braun, Weeks, and Fielder in the past.

[paul253]

Forgetting about Keith Law I think the Brewers system is in shambles. Yes the graduation of guys like Gennett, Davis and Thornburg made it worse but let's face facts. Even posters on this site can't agree if Gennett and/or Davis are every day players. While some people, like me, think they are, I don't think anyone believes they are all-star caliber types. And others can't agree if Thornburg is a starter or a reliever. So just the fact that we are arguing that the graduation of a couple of possible every day players and a guy who profiles at best to be a #3 starter makes us system so much worse should tell us how bad our system is to begin with. I thought last year's draft was an absolute joke after the first two picks. How many college aged pitchers who profile as relievers does one organization need? I liked the Clint Coulter pick from two years ago but he's shown nothing so far. The Victor Roache selection looks like it can be a good one but he needs to figure out how to hit above .250. And I do like Tyrone Taylor. Overall though I think the system is one of the worst in baseball and I am very much down on the future of this franchise. I hope I'm wrong.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2013 - no 1st round pick

2012 - Coulter & Roach (27th and 28th overall)

2011 - Jungmann and Bradley (12th and 15th overall)

2010 - Covey (14th overall, did not sign due to health issues)

2009 - Arnett, Kent Davis, Heckathorn (26th, 39th, and 47th overall)

2008 - Lawrie, Odirizzi, Frederickson (16th, 32nd, and 35th overall)

2007 - Laporta (7th overall)

2006 - Jeffress (16th overall)

2005 - Braun (5th overall)

 

Since Braun's selection 9 drafts ago, the Brewers haven't made a 1st round pick in the top 5. Teams with highly regarded systems in recent years, the Royals and Pirates, have made SIX top 5 overall picks in the same timeframe. I'm not saying the only way to build a great system is to pick at the top of every draft, as the Cardinals never pick in the top 5. But, when you don't get to pick an obvious stud, you have to be able to identify the best signable impact talent available much more consistently than the Brewers have done recently. That's how minor league systems improve.

 

Still too early on Coulter and Roach, so I won't speculate on who the Brewers could have picked instead that will be better MLB players. In 2011, the Brewers could have picked Fernandez instead of Jungmann, and Chris Reed instead of Bradley...that 1st round draft would've looked alot better than it currently does. In 2010, I don't even want to go through the list of guys the Brewers could have picked instead of Covey because it's turned out to be a very deep and talented draft year...it includes Taijuan Walker though. 2009 the Brewers missed on a few after the Arnett pick, but that will be forever remembered as having the pick right after Mike Trout was drafted. The Brewers did ok with Lawrie and Jake O. in 2008, but they could have also gotten Lance Lynn or Wade Miley instead of Frederickson. 2007 could have been Baumgartner, Porcello, Jason Heyward, although they at least traded LaPorta at his top value for C.C..

 

Had the Brewers made a different decision in even 30% of these 1st round drafts, their system would look completely different than it currently does. That's assuming their player development wouldn't ruin some of the guys I listed, which is likely part of the current problem.