2014 NL Central Pitching Rotations

[monty57]

Seems about right to me... But I could also see the rotation being better then people think.

 

The Brewer rotation is very hard to predict. They have a lot of talent, but a lot of question marks. Is Gallardo going to find his lost velocity? Is Lohse going to succumb to age? Is Peralta going to keep his walks down and continue to progress? Is Estrada going to bounce back well from injury? And every rotation has the question "are they going to stay healthy?"

 

There's talent there, and they could all play to their potential, in which case they could be pretty good... or they could look pretty bad. It's probably easiest for the "gurus" to predict them to be somewhere in the middle.

[Warning Track Power]

The Brewer rotation is very hard to predict. They have a lot of talent, but a lot of question marks. Is Gallardo going to find his lost velocity? Is Lohse going to succumb to age? Is Peralta going to keep his walks down and continue to progress? Is Estrada going to bounce back well from injury? And every rotation has the question "are they going to stay healthy?"

I think the same could be said for the Pirates rotation as well with Cole, Liriano, Rodriguez, Morton & Locke. Will Cole have a sophomore slump? Will Liriano revert to the form he had in Minnesota/Chicago? Will Wandy be fully healthy? Is Morton ever going to be consistent? Which Locke will show up, the 2013 first half or 2013 second half?

 

Going into 2014, the Pirates have the best pitcher in Cole but other than that I would rather have the Brewers rotation 2-5 than the Pirates rotation.

[DHonks]

Just curious, but has anyone else thought about how deep our rotation is? Not in any particular order:

MLB- Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Estrada, Peralta

AAA- Thornburg, Nelson, Fiers, Burgos, Hellweg

AA- Jungmann, Pena, Hall, Moye, and a host of A+ ballers that did well last year.

 

It's definitely possible that we shop Gallardo for 2-4 prospects at the all-star break, then slot Thorny or Nelson into the rotation. Potentially in the off-season we could deal Lohse or Estrada as well, while still having lots of depth.

[TURBO]

I'd rather have depth in talent though, rather than just depth in numbers... Once we get past Nelson, I don't have a lot of faith in what's left...

 

I'd say we are potentially 7 deep in guys that could help us this year, after that, it's a crapshoot. I have no faith in Fiers, Burgos or Hellweg to come in and spot start or fill in for a long injury.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's definitely possible that we shop Gallardo for 2-4 prospects at the all-star break, then slot Thorny or Nelson into the rotation. Potentially in the off-season we could deal Lohse or Estrada as well, while still having lots of depth.

In general, this is a philosophy I would love to see the Brewers shift towards... I won't hold my breath, but man would it be nice. It would set the org. up nicely going forward if executed as well as, say, the Greinke trade.

[monty57]

I'd rather have depth in talent though, rather than just depth in numbers... Once we get past Nelson, I don't have a lot of faith in what's left...

 

I'd say we are potentially 7 deep in guys that could help us this year, after that, it's a crapshoot. I have no faith in Fiers, Burgos or Hellweg to come in and spot start or fill in for a long injury.

 

If we were to do the trade, ideally it would be because some of the other pitchers had stepped up their game, making some of the MLB guys expendable, and (again ideally) we would try to get at least some minor league pitching back. It's early to be discussing this, but in a mid-season trade, the team receiving the MLB player is doing so to win now, so they may be willing to give up talented guys (future good MLB players) who won't help them this year.

 

We have a lot of holes in the minors to be filled, so I wouldn't want Melvin to say "we need a stud pitching prospect or else," but it's entirely possible we could get some pitching in the mentioned trades that would be decent MLB starters in the future.

 

Also, if we're trading Gallardo mid-season, it's because we're out of the race. In that case, having guys like Fiers around at least give us something to throw out on the MLB mound for the rest of the season (or act as "injury insurance") if we were to pick up a stud pitching prospect who isn't yet ready to be thrown on the MLB field.

 

When the Brewers were using all of their draft picks on pitchers, I had hopes that would mean that in the future we'd have a home-grown MLB rotation and be able to trade away guys as they started to get expensive because we'd have good, young, cheap pitchers ready to take their place. That hasn't happened, but at least we have a number of guys who should make the majors as back-of-the-rotation starters or relievers. Signing Garza blocks these guys now, but it does open up the possibility of trading away someone else in the not-too-distant future. We'll just have to see if the Brewers will take advantage of that opportunity.

[monty57]

The Brewer rotation is very hard to predict. They have a lot of talent, but a lot of question marks. Is Gallardo going to find his lost velocity? Is Lohse going to succumb to age? Is Peralta going to keep his walks down and continue to progress? Is Estrada going to bounce back well from injury? And every rotation has the question "are they going to stay healthy?"

I think the same could be said for the Pirates rotation as well with Cole, Liriano, Rodriguez, Morton & Locke. Will Cole have a sophomore slump? Will Liriano revert to the form he had in Minnesota/Chicago? Will Wandy be fully healthy? Is Morton ever going to be consistent? Which Locke will show up, the 2013 first half or 2013 second half?

 

Going into 2014, the Pirates have the best pitcher in Cole but other than that I would rather have the Brewers rotation 2-5 than the Pirates rotation.

 

Yeah, I think the Cardinals easily stand out at the top. The Reds are next in line.

 

Then there's a step down to the rest of the division. The Brewers and Pirates both lack someone who will likely be an ace-of-staff this year. The Brewers have guys with more track record than the Pirates, while the Pirates have some guys who could be aces-of-staff in the future. I would gladly trade our top seven guys for the Pirates top seven guys, but just for this year, it's tough to say who will be better overall, for the questions mentioned above.

 

...and then there's the Cubs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Seems about right to me... But I could also see the rotation being better then people think.

 

The Brewer rotation is very hard to predict. They have a lot of talent, but a lot of question marks. Is Gallardo going to find his lost velocity? Is Lohse going to succumb to age? Is Peralta going to keep his walks down and continue to progress? Is Estrada going to bounce back well from injury? And every rotation has the question "are they going to stay healthy?"

 

There's talent there, and they could all play to their potential, in which case they could be pretty good... or they could look pretty bad. It's probably easiest for the "gurus" to predict them to be somewhere in the middle.

 

I disagree about it being a staff that's hard to predict. Gallardo has put up numbers in a fairly narrow range for 5 straight seasons with at least 30 starts and WHIPS between 1.215 and 1.368. His velocity loss affected his strikeout ratio, but a solid 2nd half showed he can still be effective. Lohse over his last 3 seasons, has posted WHIPS of 1.168, 1.090, and 1.168. Can't get much more consistent than that. Estrada' last 3 seasons, his WHIPS have been progressively better: 1.209, 1.142, 1.078. The only question left about Estrada is whether he can do that over 30 starts. Peralta is still learning how to harness great stuff but he's such a horse that its easy to imagine 200 innings and at some progression in numbers year to year. Garza's a proven 2-3 type. There's some question about durability with him, but not in the extreme.

 

I don't see them being a top 7-8 rotation or a bottom 8 either. They are in that mid range. If things go right, Peralta takes a step forward and the other guys pitch around what they have in recent seasons, it's near the top third, maybe 10-12th. If Gallardo slips a little more, Peralta stagnates, and an injury or two pops up, they still have the depth to salvage a rotation that's in that 20th to 22nd range.

[monty57]

I think/hope that much of Gallardo's problems last year stemmed from the World Baseball Classic, so I agree that he could be a pleasant surprise. I think some of his better second half can be attributed to getting some rest while injured. However, my "gut feeling" about the WBC won't be answered until he goes out and pitches well. If he has "lost" his fastball, he won't be the same low-#1/high-#2 pitcher he used to be. He's in his prime years, so hopefully he finds his velocity and reverts back to what he was.

 

Lohse will be 35. That's my only concern about him. From the day he was signed, I figured he'd be good the first year, but could slip in year two and/or three of the deal, as most players retire by age 35 or 36 due to age regression. If he's one of those elite few who don't succumb to age until age 37 or later, then we will have gotten really lucky.

 

I do like Estrada, and think he's seriously underrated. If fully healthy, he should put up decent numbers. I don't know why he never gets any recognition. He's not short, he's not a soft-tosser, he's just always overlooked.

 

Peralta is the best bet of all of our pitching prospects to potentially reach the top-of-the-rotation level. If he can get a bit more control, he has the "stuff." If he doesn't get that control, he should still be a 4/5 guy.

 

So I'm not negative on the staff, just wary. They're certainly much better than the Brewers have thrown out there for most of their existence as a franchise, but considering we're spending nearly half our payroll on those five guys, they should be. My guess is that we'll have the third or fourth best rotation in the division, depending on how our guys fare, and how the Pirates' guys do.

[logan82]

If Gallardo slips a little more, Peralta stagnates, and an injury or two pops up, they still have the depth to salvage a rotation that's in that 20th to 22nd range.

If either or both of those things happen we are in trouble because I doubt either will be pulled out of the rotation for somebody else.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'd rather have depth in talent though, rather than just depth in numbers... Once we get past Nelson, I don't have a lot of faith in what's left...

 

I agree what we have past Nelson isn't great but they are serviceable past that. I think some of those guys can come in and help in the pen and maybe be a swing guy like Estrada was a couple season's ago. Those guys are never going to wow you but they have considerable value as spot starters and bullpen innings eaters when injuries or stretches of ineffectiveness rear their ugly heads. Helping keep the team afloat while the main guys work their way out of slumps or injury has value. Witness what Fiers did a couple seasons ago or what Estrada did when Greinke started the season on the DL.