2014 NL Central Pitching Rotations

[jjkoestler]

Projected NL Central Rotations

zWAR per ZiPS

 

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright (4)

Shelby Miller (3.2)

Jaime Garcia (1.4)

Lance Lynn (2.6)

Michael Wacha (2.3)

(13.5)

 

Reds

Mat Latos (4.5)

Johnny Cueto (3.1)

Homer Bailey (3.5)

Tony Cingrani (2.6)

Mike Leake (2.3)

(16)

 

Pirates

Francisco Liriano (2.9)

Gerrit Cole (2.2)

Charlie Morton (.9)

Jeff Locke (1)

Wandy Rodriguez (1.4)

(8.4)

 

Jameson Taillon (1.5)

 

Cubs

Jeff Samardzija (3.2)

Travis Wood (2.4)

Edwin Jackson (2.1)

Chris Rusin (0.6)

Jake Arrieta (0.6)

(8.9)

 

Brewers

Yovani Gallardo (2.8)

Kyle Lohse (2.5)

Matt Garza

Wily Peralta (1.4)

Marco Estrada (2)

(8.7 w/o Garza)

[jjkoestler]

I had some time to kill so I put together a quick and dirty list of the projected NL Central starting rotations. I'm sure the actual rotations will not line up this way, but I thought it would be handy to have all of the rotations in one place.

 

What are Garza's 2014 ZiPS? I couldn't find them on Fangraphs.

[Patrick425]

Even with Pittsburgh's apparent hesitation to move pitchers up the system too quickly, I'm guessing Jameson Taillon will be in the Pirates rotation either on opening day or sometime before the end of May.

[jjkoestler]

Even with Pittsburgh's apparent hesitation to move pitchers up the system too quickly, I'm guessing Jameson Taillon will be in the Pirates rotation either on opening day or sometime before the end of May.

 

Agreed. I was basing this on not knowing how long it would take the Bucs to slot him into the rotation.

[torts]

I think Taillon follows Cole, wont be up until June. I think thats the thought of most Pirates people/fans here in pittsburgh, no one is expecting him to come in day 1 in the rotation. plus, they signed Edison Volquez, so he'll get a shot in the rotation before Taillon does

[RockCoCougars]

Looking at the Pirates rotation, it really doesn't look that good to me. Cole is the best of the bunch, but without Burnett, I think they are taking a step back, unless you believe that Liriano, Locke (1st half at least), and Morton can come close to replicating what they did last year. I'm skeptical.

[sveumrules]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if Edinson has a bounceback 2014 similar to Liriano's in 2013.

[endaround]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if Edinson has a bounceback 2014 similar to Liriano's in 2013.

 

Volquez had one good year in 2008. The would be quite a bounce back. It's more likely Liriano gets injured again or his home run rate spikes back up.

[TURBO]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if Edinson has a bounceback 2014 similar to Liriano's in 2013.

 

Bounce back? From what?

[DHonks]

Garza has to profile at least as good as Yo and Lohse. I also think Peralta will make a jump forward. It's amazing how many websites are treating him as a marginal starter and ignoring his stuff, age, and 2nd half.

[TigerUppercut]

The Pirates stayed healthy and clearly caught lightening in a bottle last year. Nothing about that team screamed 94 wins. I think you'll see a market correction in the way of .500 or less this year.

[endaround]

Garza has to profile at least as good as Yo and Lohse. I also think Peralta will make a jump forward. It's amazing how many websites are treating him as a marginal starter and ignoring his stuff, age, and 2nd half.

 

While his ERA went from 4.61 to 3.99 his FIP went from 4.32 to 4.26. If his xFIP reveals his true talent, that went from 4.20 to 4.03. If he pitches to a 4.03 FIP or so for near 200 innings he be worth about two wins.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Peralta in he can continue where he left off in the second half of last season in 2014, in the next couple years he could very well be a true Ace pitcher.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garza has to profile at least as good as Yo and Lohse. I also think Peralta will make a jump forward. It's amazing how many websites are treating him as a marginal starter and ignoring his stuff, age, and 2nd half.

 

He's a Brewer not a Yankee. Seriously I've heard Peralta compared to a young Bartolo Colon. He still has to show more consistency but he's certainly has the stuff to emerge into a top flight pitcher and this could be the year.

 

I'd bet Melvin gets a ton of calls about Peralta. The insiders/scouts know his upside.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Pirates stayed healthy and clearly caught lightening in a bottle last year. Nothing about that team screamed 94 wins. I think you'll see a market correction in the way of .500 or less this year.

 

It's still a very mediocre offensive team that got career years out of virtually every one on their pitching staff. When guys like Melancon are posting 1.38 and Mazzaro is posting 2.81 and a 36 year old closer is unhittable, you know everything is going right. They have some young position players coming, but they are probably a year away too.

[Eye Black]

Added in the Cubs rotation zWAR projections for those interested. Still haven't seen zWAR projections for Garza...

 

Projected NL Central Rotations

zWAR per ZiPS

 

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright (4)

Shelby Miller (3.2)

Jaime Garcia (1.4)

Lance Lynn (2.6)

Michael Wacha (2.3)

(13.5)

 

Reds

Mat Latos (4.5)

Johnny Cueto (3.1)

Homer Bailey (3.5)

Tony Cingrani (2.6)

Mike Leake (2.3)

(16)

 

Pirates

Francisco Liriano (2.9)

Gerrit Cole (2.2)

Charlie Morton (.9)

Jeff Locke (1)

Wandy Rodriguez (1.4)

(8.4)

 

Jameson Taillon (1.5)

 

Cubs

Jeff Samardzija (3.2)

Travis Wood (2.4)

Edwin Jackson (2.1)

Chris Rusin (0.6)

Jake Arrieta (0.6)

(8.9)

 

Brewers

Yovani Gallardo (2.8)

Kyle Lohse (2.5)

Matt Garza

Wily Peralta (1.4)

Marco Estrada (2)

(8.7 w/o Garza)

[JohnBriggs12]

Cubs change:

 

Add Jason Hammel, subtract Chris Rusin. Don't see much of an upgrade with that switch if any. Jackson holding spot only because he's getting paid. His projection assumes a comeback.

 

The one guy on that Cub rotation that could far exceed his projection is Arrieta. He had a 1.123 WHIP as a Cub. Imagine the Cubs are counting on Hammel putting up better numbers moving from AL East to NL Central also.

[monty57]

Here's a link to FanGraphs' take on the whole Brewer team.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

It has our starting pitching at 10.0 WAR, and the whole team ranked 23rd in baseball at 29.9 WAR, ahead of only the Mets, Twins, Astros, Phillies, Cubs, White Sox and Marlins.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's a link to FanGraphs' take on the whole Brewer team.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

It has our starting pitching at 10.0 WAR, and the whole team ranked 23rd in baseball at 29.9 WAR, ahead of only the Mets, Twins, Astros, Phillies, Cubs, White Sox and Marlins.

 

 

Braun at 3.8 is about half of his actual production in his peak seasons. Put it at 4.5 and Brewers are ahead of Reds.

[RightFieldCoder]

They also say Reynolds will produce the best wOBA in the infield after A-Ram but will only get 21 ABs. If we're going to roll with Juan Francisco for 420 ABs, why did we go get ~20 1B for spring training?

[monty57]

Here's a link to FanGraphs' take on the whole Brewer team.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

It has our starting pitching at 10.0 WAR, and the whole team ranked 23rd in baseball at 29.9 WAR, ahead of only the Mets, Twins, Astros, Phillies, Cubs, White Sox and Marlins.

 

 

Braun at 3.8 is about half of his actual production in his peak seasons. Put it at 4.5 and Brewers are ahead of Reds.

 

There's plenty to be debated. They also have Francisco and Maldonado getting almost all the PAs at 1B. Like anything at this time of year, they're making an "educated guess." I posted the link because I thought it added to this discussion. If they're even close to correct, St Louis will run away with things, with Pittsburgh, Cincy and Milwaukee fighting it out for the next three spots in the Central, none of them being in the top half (talent-wise) of major league teams.

[jerichoholicninja]

They also have Francisco and Maldonado getting almost all the PAs at 1B.

 

If Maldonado gets any number of PA at 1B things will have turned out worse than they did last year.

[TheCrew07]

The Pirates could get a huge boost from Polanco and Taillon in June... but then again both prospects could fall flat.

 

Polanco played winter ball for some reason so he may wear down, but if he starts the year hot in AAA he'll be up. Polanco hadn't gotten much run until he broke out it 2012 so he may be a bit under the radar for folks that primarily follow the major leagues, here's what BA had to say about him this winter:

 

Scouting Report: Polanco is an athletic five-tool talent with the ability to hit for power and average, run, throw and play superior defense in center field. The area in which Polanco needs the most work is hitting. Though he has exceptional bat speed and fast hands, his swing tends to get long, and he also has trouble laying off breaking pitches outside the zone. At his size, Polanco always will have some holes in his swing, and some scouts question whether he will hit for plus power because of the lengthy swing. Others are convinced his improved plate discipline and growing feel for hitting will translate into an all-star power/speed combination. Polanco’s long, gliding strides enable him to cover tons of ground, especially laterally, as he can track down flyballs from gap to gap, and his plus arm would allow him to play right field. His above-average speed also makes him a threat on the bases, and he continues to hone his baserunning instincts.

 

The Future: While face-of-the-franchise Andrew McCutchen patrols center, right field is open in Pittsburgh, and Polanco is so talented that he almost certainly will force his way into the major league lineup at some point in 2014, most likely in right. He still needs some finishing touches, so he will start the 2014 season back at Indianapolis. He should be in the major leagues before long and figures to be an impact player for many years to come.

 

Basically he's a more athletic and defensively proficient version of Corey Hart at the same point in their careers, but like most prospects the question is will he hit enough? He was originally a pitcher growing up, but the Pirates thought he'd make a good OF, so his hitting has always been behind the rest of his game as he was so raw.

 

As far as the projections go, they also have Garza pitching 193 innings which he hasn't done since 2011... but then again they do that for every team's #1 and then have a sliding scale of innings after.

 

Robert Stephenson from the Reds finished last year in AA after battling a leg injury at the mid point, he's not too far away and could make difference for them down the stretch if he continues to progress. I could see him pitching out of the back of the bullpen down in September and then moving to the rotation for 2015, very similar to what the Rays did with David Price in 2008-09.

 

It will be definitely interesting to see how the season shakes out as there is enough young impact talent around the division that could prove to be difference makers down the stretch for the Cards, Pirates, and Reds. Most of those young players will make the opening day roster for the Cards, though Piscotty could possibly be a nice injury fill in, and it still pisses me off that they can use arms like Martinez and Rosenthal(a 21st round pick, that hurts) out of the bullpen. The Brewers just need to be exceedingly healthy all year to have a shot as I don't see players like Hellweg impacting the rotation or bullpen in a positive manner nor do we have any bats which are likely to make a difference. Though I'll be curious to watch Nelson, he didn't impress me early in his career at all, but he's come a long way since.

[JohnBriggs12]

I won't argue that Polanco and Taillon are great prospects, but Polanco has just a half season above A ball and while he's been very good in the Dominican Winter League, it's a stretch to think he'll have a great impact this season. His AA numbers weren't anything special Same goes with Taillon who's had just 6 AAA starts going into this year.

 

Pittsburgh's future is bright. I just think they are more geared to 2015 and beyond and may take a rather noticeable step backward this year.

[DR28]

I know Bleacher Report isn't the most legit site...

 

But they ranked all 30 MLB rotations going into ST... Have the Brewers at 14th.

 

Seems about right to me... But I could also see the rotation being better then people think.