Impact of Garza signing on 1B

[brewmann04]

Butler could cost two starting pitching but to me that will be an overpay.

[brewmann04]

Casey Kotchman is still out their good fielder but not sure can hit anymore.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still think Smoak or Carp are guys to keep an eye on. Both are extra pieces on their teams. Smoak is insurance if Hart's knees prove problematic, but I think he'll be available at some point as will Carp depending on what needs those teams have.

[yoshii8]

I hope they have an under the radar move to get a good 1b lined up. I just don't know who it could be. Maybe Adam Lind?

[Warning Track Power]

I still don't understand what Seattle did with Logan Morrison and Corey Hart with Justin Smoak still on the roster. Additionally, I won't be surprised when Kendrys Morales doesn't find an offer he likes because of the draft pick attached to him and has to come back to Seattle on a discounted contract. If that were to happen, the Mariners would have Hart/Morrison/Smoak/Morales to all split 1B, RF & DH and none of those guys should see RF.

 

I agree with Briggs that it wouldn't be shocking if Smoak or Morrison is in Milwaukee for the right deal, provided Morales re-signing back in Seattle.

 

How is Smoak's D at 1B?

[monty57]

I think this signing has Attanasio thinking playoffs, and I don't think he'll want to stand pat with the current 1B situation. I think they're going to try to get a good 1B, and I think that means trading one of Thornburg/Nelson plus some other prospects for someone like Butler. Attanasio has shown the propensity to worry about today and let tomorrow sort itself out, and trading Thornburg+ for Butler would fit perfectly well into that line of thinking.

 

I see no way the Brewers will or can pay what KC will want for Butler. And that is before we talk about Butler's salary and questionable ability at 1B.

 

I'm not sure if Thornburg or Nelson + Roache or Haniger and another prospect would be enough, but I could see the Brewers trying to pull a "Grienke-like" trade. They now have their rotation set for the next two years, Ramirez could be here for two years, and with his option, Butler has two years of team control remaining. This would fit right into the two-year "window" in which Melvin likes to operate.

 

I don't know if the Brewers have enough trade chips (assuming of course that they aren't going to trade anyone from the MLB roster) to make this happen, but I'd guess they'd trade almost anyone from the farm to do it. It's not necessarily how I'd do things, but making a move like this would make the Garza signing more sensible for the "go for it" strategy, as they'd be trading from their excess of AAA starting pitching and outfielders to fill the biggest black hole on the MLB roster. The move really has Attanasio/Melvin written all over it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still don't understand what Seattle did with Logan Morrison and Corey Hart with Justin Smoak still on the roster. Additionally, I won't be surprised when Kendrys Morales doesn't find an offer he likes because of the draft pick attached to him and has to come back to Seattle on a discounted contract. If that were to happen, the Mariners would have Hart/Morrison/Smoak/Morales to all split 1B, RF & DH and none of those guys should see RF.

 

I agree with Briggs that it wouldn't be shocking if Smoak or Morrison is in Milwaukee for the right deal, provided Morales re-signing back in Seattle.

 

How is Smoak's D at 1B?

 

 

Having not seen much of Seattle, all you can do is look at the numbers, which all look okay. He's got the size and he throws left handed. If I had to guess, he's likely around average.

[jerichoholicninja]

I still don't understand what Seattle did with Logan Morrison and Corey Hart with Justin Smoak still on the roster. Additionally, I won't be surprised when Kendrys Morales doesn't find an offer he likes because of the draft pick attached to him and has to come back to Seattle on a discounted contract. If that were to happen, the Mariners would have Hart/Morrison/Smoak/Morales to all split 1B, RF & DH and none of those guys should see RF.

 

I agree with Briggs that it wouldn't be shocking if Smoak or Morrison is in Milwaukee for the right deal, provided Morales re-signing back in Seattle.

 

How is Smoak's D at 1B?

 

Jack Z or someone else from Seattle said the plan is to rotate everyone between 1B and DH for awhile until Corey's legs are ready to get back into RF. Heaven help them.

[monty57]

~Smoak is 27, and with 1712 career MLB ABs has a career OPS of .700. He is entering his first year of arbitration.

~Logan Morrison is 26, and with 1295 career MLB ABs has a career OPS of .764. He is entering his first year of arbitration.

 

As a "let's take a flyer on one of these guys in a rebuild year," I'd probably be okay with it, as they at least have some upside potential, although they haven't lived up to it to date. As a "we just signed Garza, so we need to upgrade 1B to make a playoff run," these guys aren't really prime targets over what we currently have in-house.

 

As far as giving up anything at all of value for one of these guys, I'd pass.

 

~Mike Carp is 27 with a career .781 OPS in 761 MLB ABs. He has one year at $1.4MM on his contract. Last season he had an .885 OPS in 216 ABs. Definitely a small sample after a down career. Boston's signing of Sizemore could make him available, but only if Sizemore proves himself healthy and able. Probably better chance of success than the guys above, but probably a higher price tag and definite chance that last year was a fluke and he's really a low-.700 OPS guy.

 

~Butler is almost 28 (April 18, 1986) with a career .823 OPS in 3,768 MLB ABs. He is owed $8.5MM this year, with a $12.5MM option ($1MM buyout).

 

Barring a Melvin finding a dark horse somewhere, Butler is really the only guy out there on the rumor mills who is a "sure thing" to be better than what we have. He is far, far better than any other guy being discussed, and will cost a lot more to get.

 

It really comes down to a couple of things:

 

1) What is our goal? Are we "going for it" this year, or are we playing out this year to see what we have? Signing Garza seems to signal "go for it," so we will probably look for an upgrade at 1B. Again, only Butler seems to be a "sure thing" upgrade. Any of the other options could easily be outplayed by a Reynolds/Francisco platoon (which is sad).

 

2) Do we have the money to land Butler? I didn't think we'd spend this offseason, but once again, we made a "splash" signing. It's possible that it was is simply done to increase sales without a true goal of winning. In this case, we'll stand pat with Reynolds/Francisco. If Attanasio believes he can put together a playoff team, can he dig out another $8.5MM (minus what we'd save by jettisoning the 1B on the roster)? Budgets are based on projected ticket sales, so if Attanasio does think this vaults us to the playoffs, then he would probably assume higher attendance, so it's possible he'd okay the money.

 

3) Do we have the prospects to land Butler? Our farm stinks, so it really depends on how much KC wants to move him and what other teams would offer. I'd guess one of Thornburg/Nelson, one or two of Roache/Haniger/Coulter and maybe someone else would be our best package, and I have no idea if that would be enough to get him.

 

But, if we don't get someone who is a true upgrade over Francisco/Reynolds/Overbay, then I don't see a point in making a move. I think Attanasio will want a better option at 1B, so I think Melvin will at least try for someone like Butler. If he trades anything of value for one of the other guys being mentioned, I will probably be disappointed.

[Warning Track Power]

3) Do we have the prospects to land Butler? Our farm stinks, so it really depends on how much KC wants to move him and what other teams would offer. I'd guess one of Thornburg/Nelson, one or two of Roache/Haniger/Coulter and maybe someone else would be our best package, and I have no idea if that would be enough to get him.

I would be so disappointed if this were the trade. The Brewers should not be dealing Thornburg or Nelson, as they are the only young pitchers they have currently that I see making an impact on the MLB roster. Now if the deal was Ramirez and two of Roache/Haniger/Coulter for Butler and Moustakas, I could get behind it, as it possibly fills 1B and 3B for the long term, and the Brewers have some younger depth at the OF positions (Gomez, Davis, Gindl, Tyrone Taylor & likely one of Roache/Haniger). In fact, I would very much welcome this deal as Butler-Ramirez is a likely push in 2014 and Moustakas-(pick one of our 1B), is a likely win for the Brewers this season.

[endaround]

Not sure what Moustakasa really brings and see no reason why KC trades him. The only reason Butler seems to be on the markets is the Royals want another starter and Butler is relatively expensive (and then why trade Smith? KC is weird).

[SoupTown]

I think Doug is having a wee game of poker with the Mets. Ike not available? OK, we sign Reynolds and bring in Overbay. So we don't need Ike now.

 

I think Doug and anyone (fan) wanting a big upside will be interested in Ike. My hope is JuanFran is traded to an American League team for 'any' prospect. And we trade a couple middling prospects for Ike Davis. Reynolds being a backup for ARam and a platoon guy with Davis gives the team a very strong feel, in my opinion.

[monty57]

3) Do we have the prospects to land Butler? Our farm stinks, so it really depends on how much KC wants to move him and what other teams would offer. I'd guess one of Thornburg/Nelson, one or two of Roache/Haniger/Coulter and maybe someone else would be our best package, and I have no idea if that would be enough to get him.

I would be so disappointed if this were the trade. The Brewers should not be dealing Thornburg or Nelson, as they are the only young pitchers they have currently that I see making an impact on the MLB roster. Now if the deal was Ramirez and two of Roache/Haniger/Coulter for Butler and Moustakas, I could get behind it, as it possibly fills 1B and 3B for the long term, and the Brewers have some younger depth at the OF positions (Gomez, Davis, Gindl, Tyrone Taylor & likely one of Roache/Haniger). In fact, I would very much welcome this deal as Butler-Ramirez is a likely push in 2014 and Moustakas-(pick one of our 1B), is a likely win for the Brewers this season.

 

As I mentioned in the thread in the Major Leagues section, this is why I want to hold off on deciding on whether I like the Garza signing until I see all the ripple effects. I can't believe that Attanasio would okay the signing of Garza, and then stand pat with our 1B situation. I could see him looking at things and thinking "if we just had a good 1B, we'd be a playoff team." Since Attanasio took the reigns, the focus has been much more on the MLB roster than on the farm, so it's possible a trade like this happens (remembering of course that most trade ideas don't happen).

 

If this were to go down, we would open a two-year "window" much like they did in 2011 with the Greinke and Marcum trades (Gallardo, Lohse, Butler and Ramirez all leaving after two years but only Weeks gone after this season). We would have a decent MLB roster, not as good as 2011, but still capable of making a playoff run. We would just have no depth, so we would be very susceptible to one injury completely derailing the season, and we would have one of the worst farm systems ever assembled.

 

Note that this is not how I would've built the team, but we're here, so it's really about what we're going to do now. Do we spend money for Garza, going "half in" just to sell a few more tickets, or do we go "all in" and give up more of tomorrow for today? It's how they've done things for years, so why would they change now?

[Warning Track Power]

My hope is JuanFran is traded to an American League team for 'any' prospect. And we trade a couple middling prospects for Ike Davis. Reynolds being a backup for ARam and a platoon guy with Davis gives the team a very strong feel, in my opinion.

I agree with this 100%. Reynolds as the power bench bat, soft end of a platoon with Davis at 1B and emergency backup for Ramirez at 3B (Bianchi should be the backup when Ramirez needs a day) would be my realistic preference for the Brewers 1B in 2014.

[Warning Track Power]

As I mentioned in the thread in the Major Leagues section, this is why I want to hold off on deciding on whether I like the Garza signing until I see all the ripple effects. I can't believe that Attanasio would okay the signing of Garza, and then stand pat with our 1B situation. I could see him looking at things and thinking "if we just had a good 1B, we'd be a playoff team." Since Attanasio took the reigns, the focus has been much more on the MLB roster than on the farm, so it's possible a trade like this happens (remembering of course that most trade ideas don't happen).

 

If this were to go down, we would open a two-year "window" much like they did in 2011 with the Greinke and Marcum trades (Gallardo, Lohse, Butler and Ramirez all leaving after two years but only Weeks gone after this season). We would have a decent MLB roster, not as good as 2011, but still capable of making a playoff run. We would just have no depth, so we would be very susceptible to one injury completely derailing the season, and we would have one of the worst farm systems ever assembled.

 

Note that this is not how I would've built the team, but we're here, so it's really about what we're going to do now. Do we spend money for Garza, going "half in" just to sell a few more tickets, or do we go "all in" and give up more of tomorrow for today? It's how they've done things for years, so why would they change now?

I think the thing is with the 1B situation is that trading for Ike or Butler and keeping our MiLB talent are not mutually exclusive. There has to be a deal for a 1B out there that allows for the Brewers to keep our young pitchers like Thornburg & Nelson for post-2015 when Lohse and maybe Gallardo are gone. As I mentioned in other threads, the Brewers have some depth in the OF with Braun, Gomez & Davis/Gindl/Schafer for the next 3 seasons at least. If we can leverage just one of the OF prospects with a SP prospect like Hellweg, I think we can find that 1B.

 

Now if they want to get really creative, the Brewers could include Ramirez in a deal for a 1B, provided they get a young 3B and a 1B in return. A package of Ramirez, Haniger & Hellweg for Butler & Moustakas would do long term wonders for this team and their chances post-2015. Currently, the Brewers lineup is or should be relatively set for the next 3 seasons in RF, CF, SS & C, and hopefully at LF & 2B as well. A trade like this could make 1B & 3B set as well.