Brewers + Matt Garza; 4 yrs, $50MM + incentives, 5th year option

[PrinceEatMeat]

We now have @BrewerNation, McCalvy, Haudricourt, and Rosenthal all saying it's not medical. So that makes me feel better for sure.

[danzig6767]

Given history I like the idea of signing starting pitchers to below market deals and spending higher draft picks on hitters...

 

I get where you are going with this, it's not the first time I've seen the idea floated around, and I think it could work for large market teams, but unfortunately not for the Brewers... not if we're talking about trying to win a championship. If the bar is set at a Wild Card appearance, then maybe.

 

You can win a ton of games with mediocre pitching and a top tier offense, but no one has won a World Series with that kind of setup.

 

Boston lead the league in runs scored last year, but were 15th in ERA, just two spots above the Brewers. They won the title.

 

In 2011, the Cardinals were 8th in the NL in ERA and 1st in runs scored. In the playoffs, numerous times their starters besides Carpenter were so bad that LaRussa had to pull starters even before the 5th inning. They won a ring though mainly because their offense was fabulous throughout the playoffs, scoring a whopping 100 runs and their bullpen was lights out.

 

Clearly pitching is generally vital to success in baseball, but your statement above simply isn't true. Those are two recent examples just off the top of my head and i'm sure their are others.

 

The playoffs and World Series in baseball can often be a crapshoot given the number of Wild Card and lower seeded teams to win it all. Hell, in that 2011 World Series the Cardinals won, Texas was twice one strike away from winning it instead. I forget which Giants title it was, they were very close to being eliminated in the first round. The first Boston title almost never happened and instead they'd have been swept by the Yankees if a Bernie Williams line drive lands two inches to the left in fair territory instead of foul. There are so many examples of both playoff series and World Series games being largely decided by a few inches, a bad call, an error, one bad pitch, a key hit by mediocre hitter, a baserunning blunder, etc etc.

[fondybrewfan]

If we lose Garza because he wants 13/13/13/13 and we want 10/12/15/15 that would be ridiculous. Seems like a pretty petty issue; our payroll isn't going to be intolerable in 2014 if we pay him $10 Million or $13 Million.

[Warning Track Power]

If this is really the case, Doug needs to go to Mark A and make this happen. You can't lose a player simply over the distribution of the salaries

Absolutely agree with this 100%. If you can lock a medically cleared Garza in at $13 million for the next four year, you do it. I understand budgets but this isn't something that should be deterring the Brewers or Garza for that matter from moving forward especially if you are talking about a contract breakdown of something like $10, $10, $16, $16 or $8, $14, $15, $16. I can't imagine either side walking away from something over things like this.

[torts]

makes me wonder if the distribution is because there is some sort of medical clause in the contract, or vesting option based on number of innings pitched where it would benefit the brewers more to backload it

[KCBrewerfan34]

would MA really walk away from a deal based on dollars distribution???

[TooLiveBrew]

Sure sounds like this would be health/injury related. If this franchise burns another first round pick, I will be done being a Brewers fan for a while.

 

I'd rather we burn the pick by signing a player that has proven he can play in MLB than burn it by allowing Bruce Seid to make the selection.

Not sure if I want to give you an interwebs high-five, or go cry a little.

 

http://i.imgur.com/AdMp28S.gif

[danzig6767]

Sure sounds like this would be health/injury related. If this franchise burns another first round pick, I will be done being a Brewers fan for a while.

 

I'd rather we burn the pick by signing a player that has proven he can play in MLB than burn it by allowing Bruce Seid to make the selection.

 

Unless guys in the last two drafts or so finally start producing some higher end prospects, i've said it before that the biggest mistake of Melvin's tenure will have been first hiring Seid to run the drafts and then keeping Seid in place to long.

 

No small market team can thrive long term without a prosperous farm system that produces both some impact players here and there, along with some solid contributors who play for cheap. We'll see how guys like Davis, Nelson, and Thorburg do when given prominent roles, but overall Seid has been a disappointment and that's probably being kind.

[SRB]

no offense to you or your friend, but i'll believe Adam McCalvy before your buddy

 

I like McCalvy but neither he nor Haudricourt tend to break stuff like this because they are Brewers reporters and thus are just given the organization's public stance (since it's obvious they're going to report it publicly). If from a proven source I think "friend of friend" info can be more plausible because it's an unintended leak.

 

(Btw, what was with Rosenthal/MLBTR suggesting that @BrewerNation broke the Garza signing first? That dude just outright makes everything up and probably got the Garza story from reading the Trade forum on here...)

 

Really hoping the originally-reported deal goes though.

[adambr2]

Aside from the small effects of inflation, I never understood the reasoning behind backloading so many deals.

 

To me, it reeks of financial irresponsibility. It's how you end up having to budget $16M for Aramis Ramirez for one season. Unless you expect your payroll to increase proportionately by that much, don't be constantly taking our mortgages on your future to pay for the present. It will catch up.

 

If Garza is getting $13M a season, pay him $13M a season. These are guaranteed contracts. You're paying all of it one way or another.

[xisxisxis]

Well if the Brewers medical staff found the tear before he signed then it must be the size of the grand canyon.

 

I doubt there will be any insurance company willing to touch insurance on him without a huge cost. If you're going to pay Garza $13M per season for about 1 WARP and another $6.5M in insurance you might as well move on....

[Thurston Fluff]

Thanks for the love - I still have some old school cred! Hawing busting out a Ulice Payne reference!

 

I tend to only report things I know first hand - and this is second hand but I know the source. Plus, something unusual seems to be happening.

I could be completely wrong - and if I am I apologize.

 

I'd like Garza, surely over Jimenez - but it's odd that the deal leaks and his medical evaluation occurs - and then silence and backpedaling - and more silence.

 

Up until you said that I thought you had enough credibility to be a reporter. No self respecting reporter ever admits to being completely wrong let alone apologize for it.

[markedman5]

Again no mention of any medical issue right now......brewers might be trying to cover themselves in case he misses significant time... can't blame them for that considering Garza's history....

 

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/241893921.html

[SRB]

Keep in mind that if it actually is a medical concern, the Brewers organization probably wants to keep that under wraps (and therefore would not tell McCalvy/Haudricourt/et al) because publicly announcing that the Brewers backed out of a deal due to medical concerns would conceivably hurt Garza's free agent value and conceivably raise legal issues. (Likewise if that's what's going on Garza's side would want to keep it a secret too.)

[pogokat]

That didn't stop the orioles from canceling their deal with Grant Balfour

[Eye Black]

My biggest concern at this point isn't really whether the Garza deal gets done, but more about how the Brewers will react if the deal falls through. I have a bad feeling that if this deal doesn't go through they will quickly make a move toward another FA starting pitcher, probably one that costs a first round draft pick. It just seems too obvious that after adding a jilt of excitement among the fan base they will feel a sense of obligation to go after another starting pitcher, regardless of how reckless it may actually be.

[502 to Right]

Two thoughts:

 

1) I 100% think this is medically related in some way.

 

2) What rational insurance company would insure Garza's contract even without a labrum tear? Given his medical history he's already a very high candidate for a catastrophic injury. What would the premium be? Insurance companies are not in the business of losing money.

 

 

Edit - I'm more and more thinking the Brewers were satisfied with the medicals but they can't find someone to insure the contract--or at least insure it for a premium the Brewers can live with.

[danzig6767]

Two thoughts:

 

1) I 100% think this is medically related in some way.

 

2) What rational insurance company would insure Garza's contract even without a labrum tear? Given his medical history he's already a very high candidate for a catastrophic injury. What would the premium be? Insurance companies are not in the business of losing money.

 

Unless i'm mistaken, Garza has only had one arm injury, that to his elbow. The time he missed last year was a strained muscle on his left side which made him miss the first seven weeks of the season, but he didn't miss a start after that. Besides maybe the elbow becoming a problem in the future, what exactly makes him a very high candidate for a catastrophic injury as you put it?

 

I'm not a doctor so i have no idea what level of risk for the future typically comes from a pitcher having a screw in his elbow, but he had made 30 plus starts over four straight seasons, so it's not like he's been chronically hurt or had dreaded shoulder issues.

 

FWIW, i'm not trying to dismiss injury concerns for Garza, but i just wonder if that's a sizable exaggeration to say he's already a very high candidate for a catastrophic injury unless you are a doctor and know exactly about what's going on with his elbow, and what level of concern it is for the future.

[Eye Black]

Unless i'm mistaken, Garza has only had one arm injury, that to his elbow. The time he missed last year was a strained muscle on his left side which made him miss the first seven weeks of the season, but he didn't miss a start after that. Besides maybe the elbow becoming a problem in the future, what exactly makes him a very high candidate for a catastrophic injury as you put it?

Garza has gone onto the DL 4 times in his career:

2008: elbow - 16 days missed

2011: elbow - 19 days missed

2012: elbow - 74 days missed

2013: strain below shoulder - 60 regular season days missed; 84 missed if you count Spring Training

 

Would not categorize him as a candidate for a catastrophic injury, but he has missed time with an injury each of the past three seasons.

[brwrsfan]

This is just so weird. An entire day goes by and we hear absolutely NOTHING. Just bizarre. Nobody that reported on it yesterday really even offered an update. I would think this has to be move than salary breakdowns, as that wouldn't seemingly take this long to hash out. It's made me really leery that this deal will ever actually happen

[jerichoholicninja]

My biggest concern at this point isn't really whether the Garza deal gets done, but more about how the Brewers will react if the deal falls through. I have a bad feeling that if this deal doesn't go through they will quickly make a move toward another FA starting pitcher, probably one that costs a first round draft pick. It just seems too obvious that after adding a jilt of excitement among the fan base they will feel a sense of obligation to go after another starting pitcher, regardless of how reckless it may actually be.

 

My fear too. If this falls through we can welcome Ubaldo Jimenez and his 5 yr/$75M contract to Milwaukee.

[markedman5]

They aren't going to go 5 years 75 million for Jimenez......come on....

 

I seriously doubt they will give up a draft choice 2 years in a row.

 

My biggest concern at this point isn't really whether the Garza deal gets done, but more about how the Brewers will react if the deal falls through. I have a bad feeling that if this deal doesn't go through they will quickly make a move toward another FA starting pitcher, probably one that costs a first round draft pick. It just seems too obvious that after adding a jilt of excitement among the fan base they will feel a sense of obligation to go after another starting pitcher, regardless of how reckless it may actually be.

 

My fear too. If this falls through we can welcome Ubaldo Jimenez and his 5 yr/$75M contract to Milwaukee.

[brewmann04]

They will not give up the 12th pick for anyone especially for Jimenez.I agree no one on twitter today has any updates and doubt that its a money issue.

[MNBrew]

I wouldn't say the silence is quite deafening, but it's been very present today. The Brewers fan in me -- the eternal optimist -- wants to see it as a positive.

 

I also think yesterday evening's Brewers release is telling, admitting that negotiations, while ongoing, are not concluded, is HIGHLY un-Brewers-like and a big indication of how close they actually are. Why? Well, precisely because normally they NEVER admit to being in negotiations with someone, yet they made a nationally public statement about it yesterday.

 

Remaining cautiously optimistic . . .

[brewmann04]

It true that it goes against the Brews Norm but hope its not a injury issue.