Brewers + Matt Garza; 4 yrs, $50MM + incentives, 5th year option

[And That]

Interesting from DoU:

 

Matt Garza, and the Importance of an Average Rotation

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

This signing is much less debatable between the rebuild/retool/win now factions. While Lohse certainly made the team better last year, it was a legit debate if it made them better enough (it didn't) while giving up a pick (a big cost, Seid picking it aside). The Lohse signing was mutually exclusive between the various pursuits.

 

The only impact on the rebuild of signing Garza is making the team better and dropping them in the draft. The money is affordable and having the team competitive probably puts more butts in the seats so it likely pays for itself at least early on in the contract.

 

Yes, I wish we had better young cost controlled pitching, but we don't. Maybe some of these guys like Thornburg or Nelson develop, but the last several years is just littered with the dregs of some bad drafts. This won't change with or without Garza. Hopefully the team can remain competitive at the MLB level while getting better at drafting and development. This organization will need to get it's farm into the middle of the pack in a few years or they'll get forced into an Astros style rebuild. At this point retool is still an option, but if they aren't better that option will be off the table. They really need to look hard into the mirror to see if they have the right people calling the shots.

[DoubleSwitch]

In the long term, I feel like signings like this don't address the root of the problem, which is our minor league scouting and development.

 

So what? Because management can't scout and develop their own homegrown players, they shouldn't be allowed to sign big league free agents? That would just put more pressure on the very thing that's a weakness of the organization. I feel like signing a pitcher of Garza's talent improves the organization, from the top down. Yes, they need to get much better at improving from the bottom up, too, but I don't think signing Garza hamstrings them from a player draft/development perspective. If that's a continued problem, then there needs to be a housecleaning of their scouting/development staff, something that isn't likely unless Melvin goes with them. The problem I see is that Melvin's able to maintain a reasonably competitive major league team on the field regardless of how strong the Brewers' farm system is, and Mark A. isn't ready to just jettison him and do a Marlins, Astros, or Cubs-esque rebuild that would net them multiple top 5 draft picks.

 

Garza's signing helps the big league club and his cost isn't restrictive for the rest of the organization - player scouting and development should be an entirely different discussion.

 

Right now the Brewers have a big league roster that can compete...100-win talent by no means, but it's good enough to earn a playoff spot if things go their way. In all honesty as Brewers fans, with how the game is structured financially today that's about the best we can hope for year in/year out.

 

That wasn't my point. Of course they can still sign big league free agents. It just doesn't get to the root of the problem. If I lose my job and can't pay my bills I can file for bankruptcy, but that won't solve the real problem which is my lack of income.

 

We've invested almost $40M in our rotation this year. The Nationals by comparison, who arguably have the best rotation in baseball, have invested about $30M, despite having just one pre-arbitration starter (same as us).

 

My point is that all the free agent signings in the world aren't going to do anything about Seid & Co. continuing to crank out bad draft picks year after year. And as long as that is going on, we'll have to go other routes to try to stay viable. But we're not the Yankees, and we can't afford to spend money every time we fail to develop our own. We NEED contributions from our pre-arby players. In our rotation, we only have one, and we still don't really know what we have out of him yet.

 

Nobody here will disagree that our drafting and development have been poor over the past 5 or so years and no one will disagree that it's vital for a small market team to do those things well to be consistently competitive. None of that is an argument against going out an improving the team at a fair price. Just because it doesn't solve our biggest problem doesn't mean it isn't a good move.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Not sure if this has been posted here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/spending-50-million-on-very-different-pitchers/

 

Interesting article comparing Garza and Ricky Nolasco. Key point for this discussion: The article translates Garza's health history into an estimate of time he's likely to miss, arguing, in part, that fewer, better-quality innings, beats out more, lower-quality innings. There's also the suggestion that the current pitching market overvalues durability.

 

A very good read.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm getting tired of hearing Suppan's name! Garza is far superior the pitcher than Soup. Fathoms me!

 

The Suppan signing was very easy to second guess at the time. A guy with very average stuff who was lucky enough to hit free agency at his career peak in an off-season with obscene contracts doled out. I agree that Garza is a better talent, and it's not even close.

[adambr2]

I'm getting tired of hearing Suppan's name! Garza is far superior the pitcher than Soup. Fathoms me!

 

The Suppan signing was very easy to second guess at the time. A guy with very average stuff who was lucky enough to hit free agency at his career peak in an off-season with obscene contracts doled out. I agree that Garza is a better talent, and it's not even close.

 

Looking back, I can't even imagine what we were thinking at the time, and I can't understand why anyone would have been excited about Suppan. Even at the time he was an average at best career starter who benefited from great defense in St. Louis, and I think even the most optimistic of fans wouldn't have thought we would get 4 good year out of Suppan.

 

I agree that even the Wolf signing was much better at the time by comparison, much less the Garza signing.

 

Suppan had to have been a product of an owner who just wanted to put his team on the map, I just wish he had done it with someone else.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't believe that this has been posted here yet -- an infographic on the Garza contract details from Disciples of Uecker (via Twitter)

[monty57]

I'm getting tired of hearing Suppan's name! Garza is far superior the pitcher than Soup. Fathoms me!

 

The Suppan signing was very easy to second guess at the time. A guy with very average stuff who was lucky enough to hit free agency at his career peak in an off-season with obscene contracts doled out. I agree that Garza is a better talent, and it's not even close.

 

Looking back, I can't even imagine what we were thinking at the time, and I can't understand why anyone would have been excited about Suppan. Even at the time he was an average at best career starter who benefited from great defense in St. Louis, and I think even the most optimistic of fans wouldn't have thought we would get 4 good year out of Suppan.

 

I agree that even the Wolf signing was much better at the time by comparison, much less the Garza signing.

 

Suppan had to have been a product of an owner who just wanted to put his team on the map, I just wish he had done it with someone else.

 

We had just come off a season in 2006 that was derailed by injuries to our starting pitchers. We expected to have a good team, when Sheets and Ohka went down, making things really ugly with Davis, Bush, Capuano and then two guaranteed losses. We tried everyone we had all the way down to AA (Hendrickson, Eveland, Zach Jackson, de la Rosa, Helling, etc). This is where Villanueva finally got his shot, and was the lone guy out of the bunch who pitched well.

 

It's another in the line of "look at last year's problem and go overboard the next offseason to fix it." This was the early stages of the Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, etc era (Suppan's first year was Braun & Gallardo's rookie year), so rather than sticking with de la Rosa and Villanueva and suffering the growing pains, Brewer management felt we needed to get the proven vet. (In the midst of the 2006 season in which we ended up 75-87, we traded de la Rosa for Graffanino. de la Rosa "found it" in 2008 and has been a pretty good pitcher since.)

 

At the time, the Brewers hadn't had a winning season since 1992, so they were doing whatever they could to appease the suddenly rabid fan base. Trading de la Rosa and signing Suppan got us a winning season in 2007. Who knows what the record in 2007 would have been if we had pitched Villanueva and de la Rosa. The future would've likely been better, but it's about winning now, so you don't let young guys play, you go out and sign the vet.

[And That]

I might have missed it, but are the Brewers planning on having a press conference for Garza? Would see odd not to, considering he's the biggest (at least by dollar amount) free agent signing in franchise history.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If I remember correctly, Suppan pitched well in the postseason that year, too - earning him the distinction of being a clutch winner. Didn't Gil Meche and some other questionable FA pitchers get silly contracts too that season?

 

The Brewers were desperate for starting pitching that took the ball every 5 days - Sheets was in the midst of breaking down, and the rest of what they had wasn't dependable (either due to inexperience, injuries, or lack of talent).

 

It's a disgusting way of looking at it, but Suppan's 1st 2 years on that contract were ok, and likely helped the Brewers be good enough to go after C.C. Sabathia at the 2008 trade deadline.

[torts]

I think the brewers front office has been getting better with their multi-year FA signings:

 

Suppan

Wolf

Loshe

Garza

 

I mean, it shows top free agent pitchers wanting to sign in milwaukee. we dont have to sign players like Suppan who had one good year anymore. we can get pitchers who have sustained success

[SRB]

If I remember correctly, Suppan pitched well in the postseason that year, too - earning him the distinction of being a clutch winner. Didn't Gil Meche and some other questionable FA pitchers get silly contracts too that season?

 

Top SP signings that offseason:

 

Barry Zito, 8/$136M

Gil Meche, 5/$55M

Daisuke Matsuzaka, 6/$52M

Jason Schmidt, 3/$47M

Jeff Suppan, 4/$42M

Ted Lilly, 4/$40M

 

Looking at old offseason signings is pretty funny. I completely forgot Jason Schmidt existed -- he went on to appear in just 10 games for the Dodgers (with a 6.02 ERA), so I guess Suppan wasn't the worst deal in the world.

[DoubleSwitch]

2006 offseason was also the year of Soriano and Carlos Lee's contracts and 50 million dollars for Gary Matthews Jr. Not a terribly good year to dip your toe in the water I guess.

[joepepsi]

The 8 consecutive seasons before Suppan signed with the Brewers he averaged 32+ starts, 200+ innings and better than league average ERA (ERA+106). The Brewers were looking for a durable mid rotation guy who could give them a chance to win. They had young up and coming stars and wanted to win for the fans immediately. I'm not saying it was a great signing, but I can the logic behind it wasn't terrible. This isn't anywhere close to the top of any Worst Free Agent Signings Ever list.

[And That]

Barry Zito, 8/$136M

Gil Meche, 5/$55M

Daisuke Matsuzaka, 6/$52M

Jason Schmidt, 3/$47M

Jeff Suppan, 4/$42M

Ted Lilly, 4/$40M

 

WAR over the life of those contracts:

 

Zito: 5.9 or .8/year

Meche: 10.1 or 2.0/year (had two really good years after signing, then injuries)

Matsuzaka: 10.4 or 1.7/year

Schmidt: 0.1 or 0.0/year

Suppan: 1.0 or 0.3/year (not counting time spent with Cardinals in 2010)

Lilly: 12.8 or 3.2/year

 

Yikes.

[xisxisxis]

.

.

.

Lilly: 12.8 or 3.2/year

 

Yikes.

 

Lilly doesn't belong in that group as the WAR numbers indicate. Spending $4M/WAR in FA is pretty good. Is Greinke going to average 6 WAR for the lifetime of his contract (he's only had a WARP above 6 once so far)? What about Sabathia who needs to average 6 also (and has never had a season of WARP=6)? Bottom Line is Lilly was a slam dunk winning deal at 4yrs/$40million.

 

For perspective, Garza would need to have an average WAR of 3.125 over the 4 years of the guaranteed contract to be as cost effective as Lilly (given inflation, maybe 2.5 is a better average WAR needed to be equivalent to Lilly). Now who wants to take the over on a total of 10 WARP as Garza's numbers the next 4 years?

[3and2Fastball]

Peter Gammons was on MLB Network today talking about how Jonathon Lucroy is one of the most underrated players in MLB, and how Lucroy is one of the greatest at framing pitches and handling pitchers....he went on to say that he thinks Garza will have his best years of his career because of Lucroy. That was cool to hear

[brewmann04]

NICE

[brewcrewdue80]

As I read the deal I get this:

10.5mil 2014-2017

500k bonus each year if 190IP in a season

2018 Option at 5mil to Milwaukee if he doesn't accumulate 110 starts over the 4years in contract or isn't on the DL to end 2017.

 

2018 1mil option if Garza misses 130(Paid days) in the 183 Paid days period of the regular season in any of the 4 seasons.

 

Garza paid 13mil option in 2018 if he exceeds 110 starts and is not on the DL to end 2017.

 

2018-2022 2mil each year of deferred payments.

 

Super contract! I mean 110 Starts in 4 years is hard. You're talking 32/33Starts most likely every full season so 128-132 total he will have max. That gives Garza only 90 days roughly on the DL to 110 days on the DL in 4 years.

 

Obviously, the biggest concern of any SP contract was taken care of: missing a year due to injury(Tommy John) with just 1mil option in 2018! That to me should occur in all contracts! That language! 130days missed in a season results in ability to pick up a free year.

 

As a fan I can cheer on any player who signs that type of contract because you're insuring the signing team you will give them a free year if you are injured for majority of one. Great, Great deal!

 

Edit Add: Just think if Corey Hart had that language in his extension. He'd be playing for the Brewers this year at 1mil.

[Mass Haas]

Daisuke Matsuzaka, 6/$52M

 

And technically don't forget the $51.11MM posting fee.

[adambr2]

As I read the deal I get this:

10.5mil 2014-2017

500k bonus each year if 190IP in a season

2018 Option at 5mil to Milwaukee if he doesn't accumulate 110 starts over the 4years in contract or isn't on the DL to end 2017.

 

2018 1mil option if Garza misses 130(Paid days) in the 183 Paid days period of the regular season in any of the 4 seasons.

 

Garza paid 13mil option in 2018 if he exceeds 110 starts and is not on the DL to end 2017.

 

2018-2022 2mil each year of deferred payments.

 

Super contract! I mean 110 Starts in 4 years is hard. You're talking 32/33Starts most likely every full season so 128-132 total he will have max. That gives Garza only 90 days roughly on the DL to 110 days on the DL in 4 years.

 

Obviously, the biggest concern of any SP contract was taken care of: missing a year due to injury(Tommy John) with just 1mil option in 2018! That to me should occur in all contracts! That language! 130days missed in a season results in ability to pick up a free year.

 

As a fan I can cheer on any player who signs that type of contract because you're insuring the signing team you will give them a free year if you are injured for majority of one. Great, Great deal!

 

Edit Add: Just think if Corey Hart had that language in his extension. He'd be playing for the Brewers this year at 1mil.

 

Is it the option itself that drops to $1M, or just the Brewers fee to exercise it if it doesn't vest? It doesn't seem totally clear in the article. If it's just the Brewers fee to exercise it, they would still owe him $14M to exercise his option that year if it didn't vest ($13M option year price + $1M fee to exercise.

 

If its the other way around it would still likely cost $6M for 2018 to exercise as his option most likely wouldn't vest on its own in that case ($1M option + $5M fee to exercise).

[3and2Fastball]

I've heard from some pretty credible former MLB players that Suppan & Hoffman were extremely valuable in the clubhouse. Suppan apparently really taught players like Gallardo a lot about how to pitch in MLB. The value of signing a veteran cannot be measured simply in Sabermetrics.

[logan82]

You mean the value of coaches can not be measured by sabermetrics. We shouldn't have to rely on players to coach other players.

[MNBrew]

No, he meant the value of veteran players. Many here don't like things like intangibles because they aren't measurable. But those intangibles are real and they are meaningful.

 

It's not relying on those players. It's a matter of younger players gaining from what those veterans are willing to give in addition to what the younger players are already gaining from their coaches.

 

My teachers and eventually my administrators have helped me a lot in my career. But none were able to help me in the same way -- qualitatively or quantitatively -- as a colleague who proved to be the most incredible mentor. My line of work is not anything remotely close to professional sports, but the analogy holds very true.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting article from Richard Durrett at ESPN: "Jon Daniels: Garza Trade Could 'Haunt Me'"

 

Excerpt:

 

"I thought way too short-term with the Garza deal last year," Daniels told Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic. "That one's got a chance to haunt us and haunt me."

 

To land Garza, Daniels dealt third baseman Mike Olt, right-handed pitcher C.J. Edwards, right-handed starter Justin Grimm and right-handed pitcher Neil Ramirez, who was the player to be named later.

 

...

 

Olt is competing for the starting third-base job with the Cubs this spring. Edwards had a terrific 2013, split between the Rangers and Cubs, and continues to progress toward the big leagues. Add in Grimm and Ramirez, and the Cubs got a nice foursome of prospects for Garza.