Brewers + Matt Garza; 4 yrs, $50MM + incentives, 5th year option

[brewcrewdue80]

I still see our bullpen as a potential weakness, but adding Garza gives us another option for the rotation that can pile up 160 plus innings and take some of the pressure off of the guys that need to get the ball to Henderson. I like Estrada, but he hasn't exactly been a picture of health (much like Garza last year) and I don't think Marco has ever thrown more than 130 innings in the majors. We'll be able to see what we have with Thornburg, Nelson, and Smith at some point this year, without putting two hundred innings worth of mileage on their arms.

 

If the Garza signing signals a philosophical change on the part of Brewers management toward pitching, I'm for it. I like the three run bomb as much as anyone but our recent playoff rosters have included names like Greinke and Sabathia. Our pitching is deeper than it was last week, and our offense still features a mix of power and speed. We didn't beat very many good teams last year, but I think we are at least capable of competing with the good teams on paper at this point.

 

What I really like about Garza is not only the depth and wonder if Estrada goes 30 Starts in a season when has yet to do it but, Gallardo....What if Gallardo is a #4 SP with his loss in velocity? What if his shoulder is wearing thin and injury concern is there? Yo has 5 straight seasons of 30 starts or more. Maybe his time is coming for the wear and tear. and his 2013 was just foreshadowing it?

Garza can be depended on as this team's #2 when he takes a mound. What I hope for is Lohse/Peralta to be there 33starts. What I don't believe is Gallardo/Garza/Estrada will make 33starts. At which point Thornburg/Smith/Nelson and who knows? Hellweg should control magically appear this year? Those 4 are in my mind capable to fill out the rotation should a DL stint happen to the 3 mentioned.

 

12.5mil a season while it isn't a little, it also isn't a lot. Not since his Rookie year has Garza's Season ERA been above 4. That's a better track record than Lohse that's for sure! We gave up a 1st rd pick and 11mil per for an older Lohse. Garza at 12.5mil per? No draft pick? Yeah How can anyone be upset about this deal?

Those who are upset are the ones, that want a rebuild. Tear down the ML players of value for young talent and dream of that young talent being better together than what this team appears today? I was declaring that for sure. But I really never imagined Garza was a guy Milwaukee could attain...at least at a valuable cost. I had no reason to believe Garza wouldn't go for 14mil if not 15mil or more per season guaranteed. Which on a 100mil payroll seems too costly for someone who has injury concerns. I think the price is just right for us in the risk/reward factor. We now have Lohse/Garza as Playoff Experienced pitchers to hopefully digest veteran info to our younger pitchers just beginning their careers. Game On!

[torts]

Garza is going to be bombarded by bunts in spring training

[monty57]

I'm not upset about signing Garza. I think he's a good player, he'll make the team better, and relative to the ridiculous deals signed by big money teams, we got him "cheap." In a different situation, I'd be excited by the signing, but in the current situation, it just seems odd.

 

Starting pitching is supposed to be the area in which we have the most young talent. If endaround and DoubleSwitch are correct, and our four best prospects are replacement level or worse, then we are really in trouble. Thornburg (#84 MLB.com 2012. #100 BP last year) and Nelson (#83 MLB.com this year) are supposed to be better prospects than Davis and Gennett, and not far behind Peralta (#64 MLB.com, #68 BP last year) and Segura (#67 BP in 2012). I respect you endaround, but if you truly think Thornburg and Nelson are replacement level, then I will disagree. I think both of them should have careers as #3-5 starters. But we will only know if they ever get the chance.

 

Thornburg has done at least as well in the MLB as Davis and Gennett, and he's been much more heralded by scouts, so I have more faith in him and Nelson than I have in Davis and Gennett and far more than I have in the mish-mash of 1B on the roster or the bullpen. Plus, we have no depth anywhere but starting pitching, so if we get any injury anywhere on the field, that player will be replaced by someone far below replacement level.

 

That is why rather than lighting off fireworks and doing cartwheels over what a steal we got, I question why our most important move this offseason was to bring in a starting pitcher. We have a lot of holes, some of them very big. With all of these holes, signing Garza probably is not nearly enough to make us a playoff team this year, and if endaround is correct that our best prospects are replacement level guys, we aren't going to be winning anything in the foreseeable future. So what really is the point in signing him other than to excite the fans who have been weaned to expect something like this every year or they let their season tickets expire?

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it's way premature to expect any contribution from Overbay. He fell off a cliff in the 2nd half last year (his 2nd half OPS was .586; Yuni's was .664) in NY and Yankee Stadium is a great hitters park for lefty bats. Plus he turns 37 today. In the post PED era, that's old. If he's any more than a once a week starter/PH, that's not a good omen. My preference is he gets cut and they find an alternative.

 

There's at least hope for Reynolds who's young enough to revert to the all or nothing producer he was not that long ago.

[bork]

Have the yearly breakdowns been reported yet? I'm curious how much money is being deferred.

[TURBO]

Since we are loosely talking about Overbay and Reynolds, I want nothing to do with either of them.

 

Talk about unexciting guys to add to the roster... One is a strikeout king with flashes of power, the other an average at best has-been who is now below average. Why on earth add guys like this to our roster at all?

 

I don't want to see either of them get a single at bat this season, and you can add Francisco in with them as well. Our lack of a plan at 1B, now for 2 straight seasons disgusts me.

 

I am so-so on the Garza signing. If he can possibly stay healthy, we got him on a good deal, but if he makes 15 starts a year, some of them at less than 100% due to some injury not being reported or whatever, this deal isn't so good after all. I will be shocked if we average 20+ starts from him for the life of his contract.

 

On paper, our rotation is now serviceable, but we need the old Yo, the recent Lohse, Peralta to step up, Estrada to stay healthy, and Garza to earn his paychecks and stay on the field for things to go right. We need a run producing 1B, not a whiff king or a guy named "O."

[fondybrewfan]

I am not to worried about 1st base possibly being below average just because we will also likely be getting above average offense from several positions that you normally don't expect (SS, CF, and C). The offense is good enough that we don't need great production out of 1st. Yeah it would be nice but they will still score plenty of runs regardless and it doesn't pay to trade away what farm assets we do have to improve the strongest part of the team already.

 

I am confident that Lohse, Estrada, and Peralta will produce like we expect them to. If Garza is healthy there is no reason to believe he won't be good as well. But we can't afford Gallardo 2013 all over again. He needs to be better.

[Warning Track Power]

I am confident that Lohse, Estrada, and Peralta will produce like we expect them to. If Garza is healthy there is no reason to believe he won't be good as well. But we can't afford Gallardo 2013 all over again. He needs to be better.

 

Let's assume we get the 2012 Garza and Gallardo and the 2013 Lohse, Peralta & Estrada. The numbers are:

 

Garza: 3.91 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Gallardo: 3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Lohse: 3.35 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Peralta: 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Estrada: 3.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

 

That would be a rotation average of 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP.

 

Would you take that right now? And if so, where does that land us in terms of wins? If it doesn't take us to a playoff level, where could we realistically see any improvement from the players listed above and would that improvement be offset by any regression?

 

I guess I look at this list and see a pretty accurate reflection of where our rotation will stand in 2014. I could see some regression from Lohse and Yo, however I see it being offset by Garza and Peralta. If the Brewers have this production from the staff, I see them as a solid 85 win team. Now if Scooter and K. Davis hit in their first tastes as everyday big leaguers, and the rest of the Brewers O remains what they have been, I see a chance for a high 80 win team.

[monty57]

I am not to worried about 1st base possibly being below average just because we will also likely be getting above average offense from several positions that you normally don't expect (SS, CF, and C).

 

I hope Segura lives up to what he did early last year, but I think it's early to say we'll get above average offense from him. Barring injury, we are likely to get good (relative) production from RF, CF, C and 3B. We will probably get below average production from 1B and 2B and have big questions at SS and LF. We have basically no backups with any ability, so any injury to any position, especially RF, CF, C and/or 3B could really hurt us. The Brewers play in an offensive park, so that has to play into discussions to some extent (positive for hitters, negative for pitchers).

 

We should have a decent offense, but a lot of things this year are up in the air. How the young guys will play is one. Injuries are another. Injuries hit every team, but with a lot of our offense relying on a few players, and no talent behind the starters, we are probably much more susceptible to one injury derailing the season than most teams at any position except starting pitching.

[logan82]

I'm not upset about signing Garza. I think he's a good player, he'll make the team better, and relative to the ridiculous deals signed by big money teams, we got him "cheap." In a different situation, I'd be excited by the signing, but in the current situation, it just seems odd.

 

Starting pitching is supposed to be the area in which we have the most young talent. If endaround and DoubleSwitch are correct, and our four best prospects are replacement level or worse, then we are really in trouble. Thornburg (#84 MLB.com 2012. #100 BP last year) and Nelson (#83 MLB.com this year) are supposed to be better prospects than Davis and Gennett, and not far behind Peralta (#64 MLB.com, #68 BP last year) and Segura (#67 BP in 2012). I respect you endaround, but if you truly think Thornburg and Nelson are replacement level, then I will disagree. I think both of them should have careers as #3-5 starters. But we will only know if they ever get the chance.

 

Thornburg has done at least as well in the MLB as Davis and Gennett, and he's been much more heralded by scouts, so I have more faith in him and Nelson than I have in Davis and Gennett and far more than I have in the mish-mash of 1B on the roster or the bullpen. Plus, we have no depth anywhere but starting pitching, so if we get any injury anywhere on the field, that player will be replaced by someone far below replacement level.

 

That is why rather than lighting off fireworks and doing cartwheels over what a steal we got, I question why our most important move this offseason was to bring in a starting pitcher. We have a lot of holes, some of them very big. With all of these holes, signing Garza probably is not nearly enough to make us a playoff team this year, and if endaround is correct that our best prospects are replacement level guys, we aren't going to be winning anything in the foreseeable future. So what really is the point in signing him other than to excite the fans who have been weaned to expect something like this every year or they let their season tickets expire?

I agree it is odd because it probably doesn't really help to much but I don't tink it hurts very much either. In this case it's just money and I don't think we will look at the contract in a couple years and wish we had the money to sign somebody else. Even with Garza we are probably only 7 decent MLB starting pitchers deep. I am just sort of meh on the deal. We are putting a lot on old guys staying healthy and young guys repeating career years if we expect to compete in the next couple years. I hope we will eventually flip Lohse and Garza at some point for young talented players but more likely we will hold onto them until they decline beyond usefulness or until the last half year of their contract.

[torts]

all reported by @joelsherman1 on twitter just now

 

Garza deal:

5th year option, Brewers can opt out at $5million, but becomes $1million if Garza spends 130 days on the DL in 183-paid period for various injuries during ANY of the 4 seasons

 

Garza can vest at $13 million if:

1- starts 110 games during contract plus

2- not on DL at end of '17 regular season plus

3- 115 IP in '17 season

 

Garza paid $12.5 million per year from 2014 - 2017 with $2 mil deferred without interest each year plus in each year he can earn $500k for 30games started and 190IP

[Warning Track Power]

That is a complicated contract. I think we all can see why it took from Thursday to Sunday to work out all the details of the contract as I am sure the Brewers and Garza went back and forth on their proposals.

 

Good deal for the Brewers though overall. If Garza is healthy, the deal would be 5 years, $65 million. Let's hope for health and effectiveness.

[fondybrewfan]

Let's assume we get the 2012 Garza and Gallardo and the 2013 Lohse, Peralta & Estrada. The numbers are:

 

Garza: 3.91 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Gallardo: 3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Lohse: 3.35 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Peralta: 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Estrada: 3.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

 

I would gladly take those numbers althought I think Peralta is pretty likely to be better than that in 2014. None of that seems unattainable altough it would be nice to have somebody step up and have a 3.0 ERA or below year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Not sure why some think Garza is such an injury concern. He missed time in 2012 with a "stress reaction." For those not sure what a "stress reaction" is, this link talks about it and it doesn't seem like a big deal. He missed the start of last year with a muscle strain. Another thing I wouldn't be too worried about especially since he didn't have any problems the rest of the year. In 2008-11 he made at least 30 starts every year and he made 30 starts between the majors and minors in 2006 and 2007.

[DoubleSwitch]

Garza deal:

5th year option, Brewers can opt out at $5million, but becomes $1million if Garza spends 130 days on the DL in 183-paid period for various injuries during ANY of the 4 seasons

 

Ok the way you worded it there makes it sound like the buyout on the fifth year option is 5 or 1 million depending on injury history if the option doesn't automatically vest. The way it's worded in Shermans tweet and MLBTR to me sounds like the entire 2018 salary is either a 1 million dollar team option, a 5 million dollar team option or 13 million dollar vesting option depending on innings pitched, starts and injury history over the life of the contract. Somewhat like John Lackeys 500K 2015 option but even more complicated.

[markedman5]

So if he has 130 total DL days over 4 years Brewers can opt out for 1 million?

[jerichoholicninja]

So if he has 130 total DL days over 4 years Brewers can opt out for 1 million?

 

No, 130 DL days over a 183 day period.

[torts]

So if he has 130 total DL days over 4 years Brewers can opt out for 1 million?

 

No, 130 DL days over a 183 day period.

 

and 183 day period is the length of one contract year, so any contract year, if he misses 130+ games the brewers option drops to $1 million

[adambr2]

In the long term, I feel like signings like this don't address the root of the problem, which is our minor league scouting and development.

 

So what? Because management can't scout and develop their own homegrown players, they shouldn't be allowed to sign big league free agents? That would just put more pressure on the very thing that's a weakness of the organization. I feel like signing a pitcher of Garza's talent improves the organization, from the top down. Yes, they need to get much better at improving from the bottom up, too, but I don't think signing Garza hamstrings them from a player draft/development perspective. If that's a continued problem, then there needs to be a housecleaning of their scouting/development staff, something that isn't likely unless Melvin goes with them. The problem I see is that Melvin's able to maintain a reasonably competitive major league team on the field regardless of how strong the Brewers' farm system is, and Mark A. isn't ready to just jettison him and do a Marlins, Astros, or Cubs-esque rebuild that would net them multiple top 5 draft picks.

 

Garza's signing helps the big league club and his cost isn't restrictive for the rest of the organization - player scouting and development should be an entirely different discussion.

 

Right now the Brewers have a big league roster that can compete...100-win talent by no means, but it's good enough to earn a playoff spot if things go their way. In all honesty as Brewers fans, with how the game is structured financially today that's about the best we can hope for year in/year out.

 

That wasn't my point. Of course they can still sign big league free agents. It just doesn't get to the root of the problem. If I lose my job and can't pay my bills I can file for bankruptcy, but that won't solve the real problem which is my lack of income.

 

We've invested almost $40M in our rotation this year. The Nationals by comparison, who arguably have the best rotation in baseball, have invested about $30M, despite having just one pre-arbitration starter (same as us).

 

My point is that all the free agent signings in the world aren't going to do anything about Seid & Co. continuing to crank out bad draft picks year after year. And as long as that is going on, we'll have to go other routes to try to stay viable. But we're not the Yankees, and we can't afford to spend money every time we fail to develop our own. We NEED contributions from our pre-arby players. In our rotation, we only have one, and we still don't really know what we have out of him yet.

[Roderick]

Garza deal:

5th year option, Brewers can opt out at $5million, but becomes $1million if Garza spends 130 days on the DL in 183-paid period for various injuries during ANY of the 4 seasons

 

Ok the way you worded it there makes it sound like the buyout on the fifth year option is 5 or 1 million depending on injury history if the option doesn't automatically vest. The way it's worded in Shermans tweet and MLBTR to me sounds like the entire 2018 salary is either a 1 million dollar team option, a 5 million dollar team option or 13 million dollar vesting option depending on innings pitched, starts and injury history over the life of the contract. Somewhat like John Lackeys 500K 2015 option but even more complicated.

 

The MJS had an article that was a little bit clearer. "If that option does not vest, the Brewers can exercise it for $5 million. The option cost drops to $1 million if Garza spends 130 days on the disabled list over any 183-day period for any injury."

 

What I don't like about that option is that he could suck and still be healthy and pitching (like Suppan) and vest that fifth year.

[monty57]

The MJS had an article that was a little bit clearer. "If that option does not vest, the Brewers can exercise it for $5 million...

 

I love newspaper reporters. If you exercise the option, it means that you have picked it up and will pay him the $13MM. It should read "If the option does not vest, the Brewers can decline to exercise the option, at which point the Brewers will owe Garza $5MM unless Garza has spent 130 days on the disabled list over any 183-paid period for any injury."

 

One point of language interests me. Does "183-day period" mean one season? Because "183-day period" could include spring training, and could go between seasons (miss end of one season and beginning of next). I think "183-day period" may be MLB lawyer speak for "in one season," so essentially he would only cost the Brewers $1MM to decline the option if he is on the DL 130 days in at least one of the four guaranteed seasons.

[torts]

The MJS had an article that was a little bit clearer. "If that option does not vest, the Brewers can exercise it for $5 million...

 

I love newspaper reporters. If you exercise the option, it means that you have picked it up and will pay him the $13MM. It should read "If the option does not vest, the Brewers can decline to exercise the option, at which point the Brewers will owe Garza $5MM unless Garza has spent 130 days on the disabled list over any 183-paid period for any injury."

 

One point of language interests me. Does "183-paid period" mean one season? Because "183-day period" could include spring training, and could go between seasons (miss end of one season and beginning of next). I think "183-paid period" may be MLB lawyer speak for "in one season," so essentially he would only cost the Brewers $1MM to decline the option if he is on the DL 130 days in at least one of the four guaranteed seasons.

 

it means one season, from opening day to the end of the regular season, it does not include spring training. Also, my understanding is that it does not bridge over one year to the next

[Outlander]

The MJS had an article that was a little bit clearer. "If that option does not vest, the Brewers can exercise it for $5 million...

 

I love newspaper reporters. If you exercise the option, it means that you have picked it up and will pay him the $13MM. It should read "If the option does not vest, the Brewers can decline to exercise the option, at which point the Brewers will owe Garza $5MM unless Garza has spent 130 days on the disabled list over any 183-paid period for any injury."

Not sure you are right on this, there are conflicting reports on if the $5 and $1 million are buyout amounts or option amounts. If they are option amounts then they will not necessarily owe him anything in 2018. Also not sure if the $13 million is an option or not or can just automatically vest for both parties.

[brewtank34]

I'm getting tired of hearing Suppan's name! Garza is far superior the pitcher than Soup. Fathoms me!

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm getting tired of hearing Suppan's name! Garza is far superior the pitcher than Soup. Fathoms me!

 

But he's a free agent starting pitcher signed to a long term contract by the Milwaukee Brewers. It can only turn out like Suppan did!!!