Brewers sign Overbay

[trwi7]

The 2014 Milwaukee Brewers - the Arizona Diamondbacks of the Midwest. In addition to Spivey and Moeller, lets bring back Johnny Estrada, Doug Davis, Felipe Lopez and Cody Ransom for good measure.

 

How dare you forget Greg Aquino and Claudio Vargas.

[sheetskout]

The 2014 Milwaukee Brewers - the Arizona Diamondbacks of the Midwest. In addition to Spivey and Moeller, lets bring back Johnny Estrada, Doug Davis, Felipe Lopez and Cody Ransom for good measure.

 

How dare you forget Greg Aquino and Claudio Vargas.

 

I'd bring back De La Rosa right about now....

[owbc]

Now that we have options, Francisco should be dumped immediately, he's already been a repeated failure at the major league level for several years. He displayed absolutely nothing last year that would indicate potential for improvement. His 18 HR were mostly luck, just blindly guessing and hacking away. There's too many 1B options now and the weakest candidate needs to go.

 

Overbay is ancient but at least he can be platooned and has an average glove. Reynolds is the only one out of any of the options who has at least a slim possibility of putting up positive WAR on offense--although I won't be holding my breath for some magic resurgence. Halton showed nothing last year and Morris is heading the wrong direction.

 

An Overbay-Reynolds platoon makes the most sense. They can go with 4 outfielders at the beginning. It's unlikely the 2B platoon will last.

 

Finally, I expect the 'OOOOOOOO' chant to come back--make it happen Wisconsin people!

[RockCoCougars]

I don't have a problem with the Brewers giving him a look. At least he's a left handed bat, a decent option to PH or burn a LH reliever in the late innings.

[MNBrew]

I like the bench role Overbay can fill as well as that of a veteran leader (somebody's bound to comment about that) . . . kind of like a Mark Kotsay role if used correctly, [sarcasm]which is easy since he won't be playing in CF[/sarcasm].

[SoupTown]

I, tongue in cheek, jested a few months ago, that DM would end up with half dozen first baseman on the roster. And it may be that from last year's 'no body EVER played first before', that we will end up with 'half a dozen guys who have played first'.

 

Doug is so odd in his roster management. He seems to not foresee or plan for things not going perfect. Then the next year he overcompensates for the thing that went wrong the year before. That is truly frustrating to watch.

 

So, as fondy said, having FIVE real first basemen in camp seems... dumb. If Juan is so bad defensively, he should be let go to an American League team that can use a DH.

[valpocrewsader]

When Lyle Overbay was here before, I liked the fact he was a left handed first baseman. Having his glove on the right hand allowed Overbay to apply quick tags on pick-off throws.

 

Spot on. I've found myself thinking about this every year since.

[MVP2110]

When Lyle Overbay was here before, I liked the fact he was a left handed first baseman. Having his glove on the right hand allowed Overbay to apply quick tags on pick-off throws.

 

Spot on. I've found myself thinking about this every year since.

Me as well, only downside is we don't have any lefty starters to maximize this

[logan82]

Not sure how there would be room for Overbay on the roster with Francisco recently signed, isn't Francisco's contract guaranteed at this point?

Only partly if its a typical arbitration type contract. If he's cut before the season he only gets a prorated amount.

They may be guaranteed since they agreed to terms before arbitration.

[RobDeer 45]

Pretty sure last year DM thought he'd have Hart back in a month so thought he could get by with his current roster. This year, he thinks it's too early for our young 1b so he grabbed a couple stop gap players and will let them compete. We didn't have to trade anyone and we aren't blocking the young guys. Also, isn't general thought that you can screw up a prospect by bringing them up too soon and having them fail?

 

I think he's doing all he can right now, and to me it looks smart.

[monty57]

I don't love this move but I don't hate it, either. And I think it speaks to how poor the 1B market has been this winter.

 

502, how many legit 100 OPS+ guys are you suggesting were realistically available? By "available" I mean as not-overpriced FAs or as trade targets who didn't require overpayment to acquire.

 

To start with I would not have been outbid for Corey Hart. I'm pretty certain I'd be getting an OPS+ of about 120 right there with quality defense. But now he's gone.

 

 

If you are standing next to Warren Buffett and Bill Gates at an auction, and all three of you like the same thing, would you be pretty certain that you would not be outbid? The Brewers have little money relative to other teams. The Brewers offered what they could, and weren't close to Seattle's offer. Even assuming they were able to win the bidding war for Hart, it would've been for more than he signed with Seattle, and could have crippled them for a few seasons.

 

With little money, little in terms of tradeable prospects, and a team that is a real longshot for playoff contention, the Brewers really have limited options. They could blow the whole thing up, trading any player that has value, or they can do what they're doing, which is taking a year to see what they have in their young players, let some contracts fall off the books next year, probably make some mid-season trades, and go into next year with a much better grasp on the talent level of their young guys, some new young guys from trades, and more money in the war chest.

 

That said, I don't really like this signing. At least Reynolds has a chance that he'll go out and put up an .800+ OPS season. Overbay really only makes sense as insurance for a string of ST injuries, or if they're planning on cutting Francisco and go with a Reynolds / Overbay platoon. As to the "see what happens in Spring Training" nonsense, these guys have plenty of history. If they need Spring Training to decide between Overbay, Reynolds and Francisco, then they're inept.

[trwi7]

I, tongue in cheek, jested a few months ago, that DM would end up with half dozen first baseman on the roster. And it may be that from last year's 'no body EVER played first before', that we will end up with 'half a dozen guys who have played first'.

 

Doug is so odd in his roster management. He seems to not foresee or plan for things not going perfect. Then the next year he overcompensates for the thing that went wrong the year before. That is truly frustrating to watch.

 

This is so perfectly stated. Last offseason was all about fixing the bullpen while completely ignoring everything else. This offseason was spent signing 50 1st basemen to throw against a wall. The only exciting thing about the upcoming season is finding out which position Doug is going to zone in on in the 2014-15 offseason.

[logan82]

Pretty sure last year DM thought he'd have Hart back in a month so thought he could get by with his current roster.

Yes but Yuni?

[monty57]

Pretty sure last year DM thought he'd have Hart back in a month so thought he could get by with his current roster.

Yes but Yuni?

 

Don't forget Gonzalez. That was where I started believing that the Brewers didn't think highly of Morris. He was coming off a .920 OPS season in AA and was in his mid-20's, and he was given something like 3-4 days in ST before they sent him to minor league camp. It looks to have been the right move, since Morris had a bad year in AAA, but it was a good sign to me that Morris was hyped be the Brewers, but not highly regarded by them.

 

I hope he or Rogers is able to step up and take over 1B, because I really don't want this offseason's 1B antics to carry on into future years, but it's pretty certain to happen unless one of the prospects takes a big step forward.

[JohnBriggs12]

While this confirms my suspicion that they are close to giving up on Francisco (a good thing), Overbay wasn't the guy I'd have chosen. As I posted in the trade rumors, I would much prefer Wilson Betemit for his versatility, switch hitting, and better bat. Overbay slumped badly last year and gets blown away by power arms (.602 OPS vs power pitchers last year). Late in games that's almost all he's going to see. I just don't see any value here. He's also going to take spring AB's away from Morris and Halton, leaving those guys less opportunities to impress.

 

A sleeper to watch this spring now is Eugenio Velez. He followed up a nice season in Nashville with solid numbers in Dominican. Coming off winter ball, he'll probably be ahead in Arizona. He's kind of been a guy without a position, but hey, that never stopped them before from trying guys at 1B and I like his bat better than Overbay's at this point.

[RobDeer 45]

Pretty sure last year DM thought he'd have Hart back in a month so thought he could get by with his current roster.

Yes but Yuni?

 

Like is said, he thought he could by for a few weeks I'm sure without signing another player that would not have a spot once Hart came back. By using his two utility guys, he then would slide them in to their normal role. Also allowing him to see which one would be worth keeping. Yunibomber played well for a month, it just got ugly when hart missed a lot more time.

 

Morris wasn't ready and he didn't want to mind screw him by throwing him up there.

 

There aren't short term options out there for 1B. DM is doing what he can with a small bank account and without trading prospects. There isn't some magical 1B out there in Narnia that is awesome and cheap. They all have warts.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Although the Brewers are definitely going to have troubles juggling playing time at first in spring training, I think it will likely be more of a four-man rotation than a five-man.

 

The Brewers have six players listed as outfielders on their 40-man roster and I believe zero outfield NRIs. Plus one of those six, Herrera, could see some time in the infield as well. Although it is probably not where his future lies, I could see Halton getting a lot of at-bats as a corner outfielder in spring training just to get him into the lineup and see how his bat looks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Although the Brewers are definitely going to have troubles juggling playing time at first in spring training, I think it will likely be more of a four-man rotation than a five-man.

 

The Brewers have six players listed as outfielders on their 40-man roster and I believe zero outfield NRIs. Plus one of those six, Herrera, could see some time in the infield as well. Although it is probably not where his future lies, I could see Halton getting a lot of at-bats as a corner outfielder in spring training just to get him into the lineup and see how his bat looks.

 

Velez is listed as IF, but he's played a lot of OF. Halton (RF) and Rogers (LF) figure to be playing a lot in the OF in Nashville with Morris at 1B so your point is correct. They'll both see time there in Arizona.

[djoctagone]

Although it is probably not where his future lies, I could see Halton getting a lot of at-bats as a corner outfielder in spring training just to get him into the lineup and see how his bat looks.

that depends on how well ryan braun adjusts to playing in right. if he makes a smooth transition, expect more playing time for halton.

[monty57]

This made me think that maybe the Brewers would have a lot of split squad games, but surprisingly, there are only two SS games the entire spring training. But, to warm up a frigid January day, the first spring training game is February 27, just over a month away!

[logan82]

Pretty sure last year DM thought he'd have Hart back in a month so thought he could get by with his current roster.

Yes but Yuni?

 

Don't forget Gonzalez.

Honestly I did forget Gonzalez but they at least had the good sense to let him go.

[JohnBriggs12]

Not sure how there would be room for Overbay on the roster with Francisco recently signed, isn't Francisco's contract guaranteed at this point?

Only partly if its a typical arbitration type contract. If he's cut before the season he only gets a prorated amount.

They may be guaranteed since they agreed to terms before arbitration.

 

I doubt it. What incentive would Melvin have to guarantee it if he didn't have to in the arbitration process? The fact that he's opened up the competition even more, speaks to Francisco not having a fully guaranteed contract. Francisco on the other hand assured himself a higher number than the Brewers would come in with.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't love this move but I don't hate it, either. And I think it speaks to how poor the 1B market has been this winter.

 

502, how many legit 100 OPS+ guys are you suggesting were realistically available? By "available" I mean as not-overpriced FAs or as trade targets who didn't require overpayment to acquire.

 

To start with I would not have been outbid for Corey Hart. I'm pretty certain I'd be getting an OPS+ of about 120 right there with quality defense. But now he's gone.

You really would've been willing to commit to pay Hart up to $13M or more?

 

Besides Hart, what other options did you see?

 

For Hart to make the full $13 million, he'd have to be the same player he was in 2012. In today's game that player is worth at least $13 million, and with every team getting $26 million more in tv revenue and the improvement that a year like that from Hart would provide, they could have afforded it. To me it was a no brainer compared to this mess.

 

Besides, the Brewer offer topped out at what half of $13 million? Had they gone to a max around $10 million, Hart might have given them the discount to stay. The Brewer offer forced him out.

[monty57]

and with every team getting $26 million more in tv revenue

 

Not to pick on you, because I've seen plenty of posters talking about the extra money teams will get from TV, but how much revenue is lost with the 500,000 fewer tickets the Brewers sold last year vs two years prior?

 

There is a reason the Brewers are doing what they are doing this offseason. They have a limited budget based on some known numbers (like TV revenue) and some assumptions (like attendance). With a significant downward trend in ticket sales over the past two seasons, and presumably lackluster ticket sales this offseason, if you were charged with putting together a budget, what would your assumptions be for ticket sales and the revenue generated from them?

 

My guess is that they would assume less tickets than last year, so somewhere between 2.0MM and 2.5MM, and base the player payroll budget on those numbers. Most of that diminished budget is going to a handful of players, leaving very little to spread around to the rest of the team. I'm sure Melvin realizes that a healthy Hart is better than any other option, so I'm sure he offered the max his budget would allow. Unfortunately, that was not nearly enough. Therefore, since he feels he has to do something, he's looking at what he can afford, which is offering minor league deals to Reynolds and Overbay.

 

We basically have to hope that either (A) this team really surprises everyone this year and plays good enough to bring fans out of the woodwork, increasing the budget, or (B) some of our prospects (none of whom were very highly touted) step up and prove that they are good, everyday MLB players, so that when some big salaries are off the books next year, we will have a good base to build around. Then we would have some money to spend to fill in the gaping holes on the roster.

[logan82]

Only partly if its a typical arbitration type contract. If he's cut before the season he only gets a prorated amount.

They may be guaranteed since they agreed to terms before arbitration.

 

I doubt it. What incentive would Melvin have to guarantee it if he didn't have to in the arbitration process? The fact that he's opened up the competition even more, speaks to Francisco not having a fully guaranteed contract. Francisco on the other hand assured himself a higher number than the Brewers would come in with.

They never went to arbitration so there is a good chance the contract, like most MLB contracts, is guaranteed. I am not 100% sure but I don't think we can or should assume that the contract is not guaranteed. Unless the contract is mostly in performance bonuses we should probably assume it is guaranteed.

 

The panel, without opinion, awards the player a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at one salary or the other. If the player is cut before the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay.