2014 ZIPS projections; PECOTA projections (post #9)

[endaround]

Chris Cistulli tweeted the projection with an article tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/cistulli/status/425007388937039873/photo/1/large

 

Brewers at 33 WAR. Pirates at 35. Reds at 41. Cardinals at 41 (though with 5! from the bullpen)

 

Can easily see the Brewers beating those expectations at 3B, CF, LF and Estrada as #3 with full health.

[Eye Black]

http://i43.tinypic.com/2wexhkz.jpg

 

Actually a little better overall than I had guessed. I am hoping for better than 1 combined WAR between Peralta and Thornburg/5th Starter. Any positive WAR out of the 1B position would be a nice upgrade this season.

[brewtank34]

What would the 2B WAR be w/out Weeks there? I could see our 1B being a Negative but I guess one is just as close.

[nate82]

What would the 2B WAR be w/out Weeks there? I could see our 1B being a Negative but I guess one is just as close.

 

w/out Weeks probably around 0 or 1

[DuWayne Steurer]

That's a huge regression for Gomez. Ouch.

[Mass Haas]

Here you go, digest away!

[endaround]

That's a huge regression for Gomez. Ouch.

 

Partly because they reduce his PAs by 100 from last year. That is unlikely to happen.

[DuWayne Steurer]

So Zips still thinks Weeks is a better option than Gennett.

 

Can't say that I disagree.

 

That's a VERY optimistic projection for Reynolds, and if we got .800 and 29 homers out of him, I guess I wouldn't be all that upset. I just don't see it.

 

.780 for Khris Davis........eh...I'm hoping for more.

[Eye Black]

PECOTA projections were released. They have the Brewers at 80 wins, but I guess the good news is they are ahead of the Pirates and only 3 games behind the Reds in the projections (they have the Cardinals winning the division).

 

Some notables in the Projected WARP (Baseball Prospectus version of WAR): Braun (4.9); Segura (4.3); Davis (2.6); Gomez (2.1). The rest of the offensive players are projected below 2.0. Yo is the top pitcher at 2.4 WAR.

[DoubleSwitch]

I'm surprised PECOTA is that bullish on Segura. Also you gotta figure Gomez will put up nearly 2.1 WAR before he ever picks up a bat.

[fondybrewfan]

I still think everyone is seriously underestimating Peralta. I also think there is a pretty solid chance we get more than 1 WAR out of LF and 1B. Overall I am a lot more optimistic than what the pundits are projecting so far. That is probably just my Brewer colored glasses but Peralta in my opinion almost surely will be better than that

[igor67]

The Pecota numbers seem about right overall to me. As a fan I'm slightly more optimistic, but slightly ahead of the Pirates actually sounds right, and just a little behind the Reds works. There is definitely some upside potential, but things could also go sideways again in a number of ways.

[logan82]

80 wins sounds low. I think we were probably at least at 81 before signing Garza.

[Warning Track Power]

80 wins sounds low. I think we were probably at least at 81 before signing Garza.

Agreed...If the Brewers stay relatively healthy and everyone plays pretty much to their career averages, I think the Brewers should project to win between 84-86 games.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm surprised PECOTA is that bullish on Segura. Also you gotta figure Gomez will put up nearly 2.1 WAR before he ever picks up a bat.

 

Easy. Segura was likely projected as Leadoff hitter while Gomez was likely projected at #7 in the lineup.

 

But I agree how can Gomez not accumulate 2WAR alone on defense? So he's going to provide 0.0WAR in offense?

[JohnBriggs12]

If Ramirez can play 5 games a week, it will be a potent offense. Certainly no worse than 2nd best in the division. That combined with a relatively healthy rotation, and this should be an above .500 team.

 

If the young pitchers that are still back in Nashville put up solid numbers in the first half, then they'll have some ammo to make a move if they are close in July. I'm with fondybrewerfan (must be my upbringing in Fondy) on Peralta. He's a guy that could exceed all projections that are out there and by a lot. He's got to be feeling confident going into this year. With his stuff, that's exciting.

[Eye Black]

I'm surprised PECOTA is that bullish on Segura. Also you gotta figure Gomez will put up nearly 2.1 WAR before he ever picks up a bat.

 

Easy. Segura was likely projected as Leadoff hitter while Gomez was likely projected at #7 in the lineup.

 

But I agree how can Gomez not accumulate 2WAR alone on defense? So he's going to provide 0.0WAR in offense?

The projection includes 586 plate appearances for Gomez. That would be the third highest PA's of Gomez career, and the projection is 50 PA's less than the Segura who is projected as the lead-off hitter like brewcrewdue speculates. Gomez projected numbers are much closer to his career norms with an OBP of just over .300 and a SLG in the low-.400 range. I do agree that combined with his defense, a full season of Gomez even at those numbers is sure to be higher overall WAR.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think we'd all be pretty happy if Reynolds posted .234/.335/.474 with 29 HR and 90 RBI.

[Warning Track Power]

I think we'd all be pretty happy if Reynolds posted .234/.335/.474 with 29 HR and 90 RBI.

Man I would take that in a heartbeat! That to me is the absolute peak of what Reynolds could do for the Crew in 2014. I am expecting something more in line with .220/.310/.440, 21 HR 65 RBI.

[RobertR]

80 wins sounds low. I think we were probably at least at 81 before signing Garza.

Agreed...If the Brewers stay relatively healthy and everyone plays pretty much to their career averages, I think the Brewers should project to win between 84-86 games.

 

It's important to remember that these are median projections, which are likely assuming a fair share of injuries. A healthy team should significantly outperform a median team.

 

It's also worth noting that while median means a lot, standard deviation means a lot too. What are the odds that the team can win 90 games should be the real number that we're looking at.