2014 Rotation Thread

[TURBO]

Just found this little nugget:

 

Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes that Tyler Thornburg "will get a chance in the spring to show he can handle the fifth spot" in the Brewers' rotation.

 

GM Doug Melvin has also indicated that he hopes Thornburg runs away with the No. 5 job. "We had the development of (Wily) Peralta, which was a huge step for us," Melvin said. "I'm hoping that the development of Thornburg will take place as well. He's deserving of having that opportunity. We have to do that with our younger players and be patient. Sometimes, it's tough to be patient." Thornburg, 25, posted a 1.47 ERA over his seven starts with the Brew Crew last season. He's flyball-prone and many feel he's better suited for relief, but there's some deep league sleeper potential here. Will Smith, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson and Hiram Burgos will compete with Thornburg for the No. 5 spot.

 

Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Jan 12 - 9:41 AM

[DR28]

I actually really like our Rotation this year! If they pitch like the last 4 months of the 2013 season we could be in for something special.

[Outlander]

The second half of 2013 does give me hope. Kind of similar to what the organization thread noted, they have pitched well before so we know it can be done, we just don't know if they can duplicate that performance for the whole year.

[phnxcrew]

I would still rather see estrada go back to the long role in the BP giving thornburg the 4th spot and have nelson/ smith battle for the 5th spot. I guess the organization feels like only developing one high upside younger starter at a time for whatever reason... it's not like we will be more than a .500 team this year (unless the cardinals, reds and pirates all have major injuries/ failures)

[jerichoholicninja]

Marco Estrada is a starting pitcher and a fine one at that. How long is it going to take before people accept that.

 

How fine, you ask? He's Yovani Gallardo believe it or not, or better.

 

Yo career:

3.73 ERA

1.307 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.46 BB/9

.245 BAA

 

Estrada career (as a starter):

3.94 ERA

1.128 WHIP

8.6 K/9

2.01 BB/9

.241 BAA

[SoupTown]

Estrada does not get a lot of love, hey.

 

To be honest, on paper, our rotation is not too bad. But remember how Doug took the last month of 2013 and projected it to 2014. Oops. At least this year he is taking the last half of 2013 and projecting to 2014. I think the World Baseball Cup (or whatever they called it) really, really hurt us. With fresher guys this year, our rotation should be middlish. And if our batter perform toppish, then we should have a middlish-toppish team.

[monty57]

Yeah, I've always liked Estrada as a starter, but he gets no respect.

 

Barring injury, other than #5, the rotation is set. In addition to good health, we need Gallardo to get his fastball speed where it used to be, Estrada to pitch like he did before injury, Lohse to not succumb to age, Peralta to continue his development and not have a sophomore slump, and at least a couple of the MLB ready guys to pitch well.

 

Unfortunately, even if all that happens we'll probably still end up in fourth in the division, but at least we won't be a pushover and we'll have something to cheer for.

[RightFieldCoder]

Didn't we say 2013 would be great if our pitchers pitched like they did at the end of 2012?

 

I have no faith that this team as currently constructed will be .500.

[brewmann04]

Yes Marco is under the Radar guy believe we still have to thank Rich Gale. He had done enough to get a roster shot and Hope TT does take that 5th spot and runs with it.I agree if we get Yo and Loshe off to a hot start we could be ok. But if the Crew fall off we can see both moved come July.

[trwi7]

Didn't we say 2013 would be great if our pitchers pitched like they did at the end of 2012?

 

I have no faith that this team as currently constructed will be .500.

 

Yep, and if it happens again this year they'll be saying the same thing for 2015.

[bork]

I think people will doubt Estrada until he proves himself as a starter for a full season. He's never thrown more than 152 innings in a season. Can he stay healthy and effective as a full season starter?

[sveumrules]

Lohse is fine. 15th in MLB over the last two seasons in RA9.

 

Gallardo should bounce back. I'll blame his early struggles on the WBC.

 

Bork nailed it with Estrada, if he turns in his first 200 inning campaign he should also be fine. As jericho illustrated he compares favorably with Yo in career rate stats.

 

Peralta is the big wild card. Can he take a step forward and go all Fausto Carmona circa 2007? I don't see why not.

 

I'd honestly prefer a "veteran" 5 to be signed or traded for. I think Thornburg and Smith profile best in the bullpen long term with Jimmy Nelson as the 6th starter in Nashville. I'd also try to stash Wang all year for mop up/long man duty. Very intriguing, this Wang.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Peralta continues to progress, it has a chance of being a very good rotation. I've read comparisons of him to a young Bartolo Colon. Estrada remains under the radar. It was a pulled muscle running the bases that shelved him last year.

 

Not only did the WBC hurt Gallardo, I think the arrest did too. His focus was off. Hopefully he has that under control. Lohse should benefit from a full spring training. Yes he had been working out, but he had to play catch up and that is reflected in some awful May numbers.

 

Thornburg struck me last year as poised beyond his years. The difference is he pitched and didn't just rear back and throw hard. His stuff is plenty good to win at this level.

 

I'm not so concerned about all 5 getting to 200 innings. At some point I can see advantages of guys missing a start here and there as we saw with Gallardo. With the likes of Smith, Burgos, Nelson etc, at the ready, their depth will be needed and those guys should be up to the task.

[Outlander]

Didn't we say 2013 would be great if our pitchers pitched like they did at the end of 2012?

 

I have no faith that this team as currently constructed will be .500.

 

Yep, and if it happens again this year they'll be saying the same thing for 2015.

But it is not likely to happen, if somebody or a group of guys pitch bad they tend to pitch bad most of the time and the same with good pitching. It is very difficult to be good for one half and bad for another half. Now it is possible to be consistently inconsistent but again being good for a long stretch and bad for a long stretch is a long shot. Not realistic.

 

Edit: I went back to 2000 and there was no other season where they were bottom ten ERA pre all star and top ten ERA post all star like they were in 2013.

[Roderick]

I like Estrada to stay in the rotation, don't see any reason he should be moved, plus he will get paid like an arby starting pitcher.

 

Unless Thornburg is really off in spring training, give him one spot in the rotation for a minimum 6-8 starts and see what he can do. Smith can stay in the pen.

 

I wouldn't sign a free agent pitcher unless he is clearly a #2/#3 type and you are using your young pitcher(s) to trade for a young 1B or 3B. We have a bunch of #4/#5 types (for 2014) that have at least some MLB starting experience waiting in the wings if someone flops and/or gets injured: Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, Hand, Gorzy, Figaro, Burgos, Fiers.

[JohnBriggs12]

The most amazing stat put up by this staff last year was having 14 shutouts in the last 96 games and the 5 guys penciled in to start this season started 12 of those: Gallardo 4, Peralta 4, Lohse 3. Estrada 1, and Thornburg 1.

 

No, no clear ace or guy that you feel nearly 100% confident of a win every time he pitches. But no sure loss guy either as in the waning days of Suppan and others.

 

The other thing is that if they don't contend, they have guys that are likely to draw interest which should at worst help fortify the system and also allow a guy waiting in the wings a shot.

[torts]

Gallardo should bounce back. I'll blame his early struggles on the WBC.

 

he also had an early injury and had his legal problems on top of the WBC. the start of 2013 was not good for Yo at all, cant see that repeating itself

[Eye Black]

I think people will doubt Estrada until he proves himself as a starter for a full season. He's never thrown more than 152 innings in a season. Can he stay healthy and effective as a full season starter?

Some interesting analysis of Marco Estrada's injury history and mechanics in this SP Guide Article by Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn.

 

The whole article is worth the read (and not all negative), but found this part in particular ominous:

 

Estrada’s mechanics are horribly inefficient, with D-level grades or worse in every subject of his report card, and his scores put him at the very bottom of the class of pitchers who are penciled in as MLB starters this season. Estrada looks like a marionette whose strings are intertwined, limiting his flexibility as well as his efficiency.

 

His torque is minimal, as it appears that there is a chord connecting his front hip to his lead shoulder that encourages rotation in close proximity to foot strike, and only an immense upper-body twist allows him to create a semblance of separation. There is also an invisible string that connects his arms to his lift leg at the start of his delivery, and it looks as if his arms are lifting the front leg as he raises the arms over his head. He is imbalanced along all three axes, and his spine-tilt is excessive to the point of approaching the Gallardo-approved floor of a 20 grade.

[LouisEly]

Just found this little nugget:

 

Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes that Tyler Thornburg "will get a chance in the spring to show he can handle the fifth spot" in the Brewers' rotation.

 

GM Doug Melvin has also indicated that he hopes Thornburg runs away with the No. 5 job. "We had the development of (Wily) Peralta, which was a huge step for us," Melvin said. "I'm hoping that the development of Thornburg will take place as well. He's deserving of having that opportunity. We have to do that with our younger players and be patient. Sometimes, it's tough to be patient." Thornburg, 25, posted a 1.47 ERA over his seven starts with the Brew Crew last season. He's flyball-prone and many feel he's better suited for relief, but there's some deep league sleeper potential here. Will Smith, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson and Hiram Burgos will compete with Thornburg for the No. 5 spot.

 

Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Jan 12 - 9:41 AM

Conspicuous by his absence from this quote is Mike Fiers. I find it odd that people write him off based off of 22.1 innings last year and do not take into consideration the 127 innings pitched the year before. His career line over 152 innings - 4.20 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.38 K/BB - is not bad at all. That career line is a good #4 starter. Compare this to 29.1 IP for Burgos last year that weren't much better than Fiers' 22.1 IP (one could argue worse than Fiers - higher BB/9 and lower K/9 than Fiers).

 

If Lucroy would let Fiers throw his changeup more often like he did in early 2012 I think Fiers will revert more to his 2012 form. I rarely saw him throw it last year and towards the end of 2012, and that seemed to coincide with Lucroy coming off of the DL in 2012 and being the starting catcher in 2013. Maybe it's just coincidence, but I noticed last year and in late 2012 he wasn't throwing the changeup much.

[HiAndTight]

Marco Estrada is a starting pitcher and a fine one at that. How long is it going to take before people accept that.

 

How fine, you ask? He's Yovani Gallardo believe it or not, or better.

 

Yo career:

3.73 ERA

1.307 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.46 BB/9

.245 BAA

 

Estrada career (as a starter):

3.94 ERA

1.128 WHIP

8.6 K/9

2.01 BB/9

.241 BAA

 

 

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300.

 

He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo.

[JohnBriggs12]

Marco Estrada is a starting pitcher and a fine one at that. How long is it going to take before people accept that.

 

How fine, you ask? He's Yovani Gallardo believe it or not, or better.

 

Yo career:

3.73 ERA

1.307 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.46 BB/9

.245 BAA

 

Estrada career (as a starter):

3.94 ERA

1.128 WHIP

8.6 K/9

2.01 BB/9

.241 BAA

 

 

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300.

 

He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo.

 

 

Until Estrada makes 30 starts and logs 180+ innings in one year, there's no comparison. Not saying he can't be as effective or perhaps even more than Yo, but that's what will earn him the big bucks.

[jerichoholicninja]

Marco Estrada is a starting pitcher and a fine one at that. How long is it going to take before people accept that.

 

How fine, you ask? He's Yovani Gallardo believe it or not, or better.

 

Yo career:

3.73 ERA

1.307 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.46 BB/9

.245 BAA

 

Estrada career (as a starter):

3.94 ERA

1.128 WHIP

8.6 K/9

2.01 BB/9

.241 BAA

 

 

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300.

 

He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo.

 

I'll take that much lower WHIP and much lower walk rate any day over the week.

[HiAndTight]

Marco Estrada is a starting pitcher and a fine one at that. How long is it going to take before people accept that.

 

How fine, you ask? He's Yovani Gallardo believe it or not, or better.

 

Yo career:

3.73 ERA

1.307 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.46 BB/9

.245 BAA

 

Estrada career (as a starter):

3.94 ERA

1.128 WHIP

8.6 K/9

2.01 BB/9

.241 BAA

 

 

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300.

 

He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo.

 

I'll take that much lower WHIP and much lower walk rate any day over the week.

 

 

That's fine. But over the course of his career, you wouldn't be given the oppurtunity to MAKE that choice any day of the week because Estrada hasn't been available.

 

I'll take a guy who can consistently throw around 200 innings a year for 5 years by the time he's 27 rather than a guy who's thrown over 100 innings in the major leagues just twice(never more than 138) and is three years older.

 

Gallardo 27- 179 games started

Estrada 30- 53 games started

 

I don't think anyone would compare Axford to Gallardo, yet Axford is actually MUCH closer to Estrada than Gallardo is.

 

Axford 30 years old

273.2 IP

3.29 ERA

10.8 K/9

2.67 K/BB

1.326 WHIP

Estrada 30 years old

390 IP

4.17 ERA

8.8 K/9

3.74 K/BB

1.178 WHIP

[HiAndTight]

Marco Estrada is a starting pitcher and a fine one at that. How long is it going to take before people accept that.

 

How fine, you ask? He's Yovani Gallardo believe it or not, or better.

 

Yo career:

3.73 ERA

1.307 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.46 BB/9

.245 BAA

 

Estrada career (as a starter):

3.94 ERA

1.128 WHIP

8.6 K/9

2.01 BB/9

.241 BAA

 

 

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300.

 

He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo.

 

 

Until Estrada makes 30 starts and logs 180+ innings in one year, there's no comparison. Not saying he can't be as effective or perhaps even more than Yo, but that's what will earn him the big bucks.

 

 

I'm not saying he can or can't be as or more effective as Gallardo either. I'm simply stating he hasn't, and everyone continues to ask, "why does Estrada continue to get overlooked, he's been as good as Gallardo or better," when it's just not true. You can't say a guy who has put up similar rate stats over a quarter of the time has been just as good. Had he 5 straight 30 start seasons, and Estrada's best seasons have come at a time when he's older than Gallardo is right now.

 

Not to mention, we also had to add these caveat's with Estrada taking out his worst performances.

 

I know it's not the end all, but Estrada has a career ERA+ of 97 while Gallardo has an ERA+ of 109.

 

I think Estrada's ascension is greatly exaggerated as is Gallardo's decline. I certainly hope Estrada has the type of success he's had the last two years over a full 30+ start season. It'd be fantastic to get that from what would seem to be our #5 starter right now.

[TooLiveBrew]

With the 25-man roster now sorted, figured I'd give this thread a bump (instead of waiting for someone to create a new one, since this had fallen off the first page )