Slowest Off-Season Ever?

[SoupTown]

It was commented (jokingly, I think) in another thread that perhaps giving up first rounders to get talent for a few years under market price may be the 'new market inefficiency'. That is, you get the most value for money signing guys like Lohse for three years.

 

Personally, I think high defensive ability players are at too cheap. You cannot find superstars on D and O, very often. And it seems like you pay big bucks for quality offense and for quality defence (with little O), you get for free. I am very old school. I think with great defence you can make up for offensive deficiencies.

 

So, it is bad luck for me my team for the last decade has been all about bombers with no D abilities.

[homer]

I'd be OK with a mid season fire sale for prospects. Hopefully everyone with trade value stays healthy enough for that to happen.

[homer]

OK, because I'm bored this morning....

 

Batters

C Lucroy

1B Francisco/Reynolds

2B Scooter/Weeks

SS Segura

3B Ramirez

LF K. Davis

CF Gomez

RF Braun

 

Pitchers (in sort of an order but not really)

P Gallardo

P Lohse

P Estrada

P Peralta

P Thornburg

P Burgos

P Nelson

P Henderson

 

I think anyone in bold can be traded mid-season assuming they play enough and perform to the point where some other team would want them. I've only included players that could potentially net something of value (insert "Weeks couldn't get us a bucket of balls!" joke here) which is why I did not include most of the 'pen. I included Estrada because he'll be 31 by the trade deadline. I would hedge on the side of keeping him, though, because he doesn't rely on power stuff whereas Henderson, while cheap, is 32 and does rely on power. Plus it doesn't do much good to have a nice closer on a below average team.

 

As for Braun, he needs to re-establish that he can be a premier hitter. If he's MVP worthy then maybe you keep him around for the rebuild but if he's just good then I think you package him for a set of top notch prospects. It's a tough call. I think trading him in the off season would have been impossible but if he can prove himself over the first half then maybe you bait the hook and see what bites.

[Invader3K]

It's painful to me how much I agree with this. I think this perfectly sums up the Brewers' chances this season.

 

I agree. I don't like the "let's try and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle!" approach to contention. Ron Roenicke has already basically admitted they need everything to break their way this season in order to compete. I wonder what Mr. Attanasio is thinking.

[TURBO]

First and foremost the Brewers WILL contend next season. This has been a very slow off-season and trades for SP don't usually happen till after the top FA pitchers are off the market and this Tanaka deal is delaying things by a few weeks, which doesn't happen every off-season.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if DM signs a FA SP or trades for one once the other dominoes start falling. I also expect him to sign 2-3 RP's.

This team is in a rebuilding phase and 4th is their ceiling in the division for the near future.

 

The cold hard truth is that we simply don't have the farm system to gain ground on the Cardinals, Reds, or Pirates. They're already better, and their reinforcements are better. The Cubs also have a vastly superior farm system so it'll be tough to even stay out of the cellar.

 

Barring some sort of bizarre circumstance where Braun plays like an MVP, Ramirez, Segura, Lucroy and Gomez all play like all-stars, Gallardo re-emerges and young starters like Thornburg and Peralta dominate, it's unlikely to expect us to contend this year.

It's painful to me how much I agree with this. I think this perfectly sums up the Brewers' chances this season.

 

I painfully agree.

 

If we, by the grace of God, finish 3rd place or higher in our division, things had to go our way in a major, major way.

 

I deal with the pain by not expecting much, and hopefully, they surprise all of us.

[trwi7]

OK, because I'm bored this morning....

 

Batters

C Lucroy

1B Francisco/Reynolds

2B Scooter/Weeks

SS Segura

3B Ramirez

LF K. Davis

CF Gomez

RF Braun

 

Pitchers (in sort of an order but not really)

P Gallardo

P Lohse

P Estrada

P Peralta

P Thornburg

P Burgos

P Nelson

P Henderson

 

I think anyone in bold can be traded mid-season assuming they play enough and perform to the point where some other team would want them. I've only included players that could potentially net something of value (insert "Weeks couldn't get us a bucket of balls!" joke here) which is why I did not include most of the 'pen. I included Estrada because he'll be 31 by the trade deadline. I would hedge on the side of keeping him, though, because he doesn't rely on power stuff whereas Henderson, while cheap, is 32 and does rely on power. Plus it doesn't do much good to have a nice closer on a below average team.

 

As for Braun, he needs to re-establish that he can be a premier hitter. If he's MVP worthy then maybe you keep him around for the rebuild but if he's just good then I think you package him for a set of top notch prospects. It's a tough call. I think trading him in the off season would have been impossible but if he can prove himself over the first half then maybe you bait the hook and see what bites.

 

Why isn't Gomez bolded?

[logan82]

OK, because I'm bored this morning....

 

Batters

C Lucroy

1B Francisco/Reynolds

2B Scooter/Weeks

SS Segura

3B Ramirez

LF K. Davis

CF Gomez

RF Braun

 

Pitchers (in sort of an order but not really)

P Gallardo

P Lohse

P Estrada

P Peralta

P Thornburg

P Burgos

P Nelson

P Henderson

 

I think anyone in bold can be traded mid-season assuming they play enough and perform to the point where some other team would want them. I've only included players that could potentially net something of value (insert "Weeks couldn't get us a bucket of balls!" joke here) which is why I did not include most of the 'pen. I included Estrada because he'll be 31 by the trade deadline. I would hedge on the side of keeping him, though, because he doesn't rely on power stuff whereas Henderson, while cheap, is 32 and does rely on power. Plus it doesn't do much good to have a nice closer on a below average team.

 

As for Braun, he needs to re-establish that he can be a premier hitter. If he's MVP worthy then maybe you keep him around for the rebuild but if he's just good then I think you package him for a set of top notch prospects. It's a tough call. I think trading him in the off season would have been impossible but if he can prove himself over the first half then maybe you bait the hook and see what bites.

 

Why isn't Gomez bolded?

 

That is what I was thinking. Gomez doesn't even need to hit as well as he did last year to have a lot of trade value. He just needs to hit a little better than he has for most of his career to be a very very valuable CF. I don't really care if it makes a hole in our lineup to trade him. I just want the prospects he would bring back in trade. I don't think he will be around long enough to help when we have a good sized bubble of talent at the MLB level.

[adambr2]

Of course I'll cheer for contention early on while it's still a possibility, but with the understanding that we all really have that it's a very remote possibility.

 

Realistically, I'll be paying most attention to guys like Peralta, Thornburg, Nelson, and Burgos. How our starting pitching develops will go a long way to determining how we emerge from this.

 

Assuming contention isn't realistic by the deadline, guys like Braun, Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez and Gomez should certainly be available for the right price. In our situation, I like to ask whether these guys will help us beyond 3 years. Lohse and Ramirez won't be here or even effective at that point, and you might say the same for Gallardo. Gomez and Braun probably will, but it still might be a better gain in the long run if a lucrative return could be had.

 

This is the first offseason in a long time that I feel that our FO actually has a realistic grip on where we stand in the division. I think the lack of activity this off-season is a good thing and shows that we are abandoning the "patch and pray" approach that we've used every year to try to put on a look of a pseudo-contender.

 

Even if we are far under budget right now, I would much rather keep it that way, take a Marlins approach and store up extra savings for our team coffers than run the payroll up to the realistic limit just for the sake of doing so.

[Eye Black]

This Fangraphs article by Mike Petriello on What Mark Reynolds Means to Milwaukee contains, near the end of the article, a very candid synopsis of the Brewers off-season thus far:

 

For the price of nothing — $2m if he makes the team, and $500k in possible incentives — Milwaukee has probably added value, and so it’s difficult to argue with that. But then, the opportunity to discuss the Brewers in any context does raise the significant question of, well, what exactly the team is doing. They’re the only club in baseball not to have signed a single free agent to a major league deal this winter; other than than trading Norichika Aoki to Kansas City for pitcher Will Smith, their activity has been limited to bringing in Quad-A types like Reynolds, Zach Duke, Brad Mills, Irving Falu, and Greg Golson on minor-league deals, and taking a gamble on Rule 5 pitcher Wei-Chung Wang.

 

If the idea is that the team finished 23 games back in an extremely tough division and there was little they could do to close that gap this winter, then that’s a defensible decision, except so far there’s been no movement on turning older players with some remaining value like Aramis Ramirez and Kyle Lohse who aren’t likely to be part of the next good Milwaukee team into young talent. It’s simply treading water, neither building for the future nor contending for now, and no matter how you feel about some particular off-field problems, this is no way to be spending the primes of Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez.

 

At the moment, our depth charts have the Brewers ranked above only four other teams, and while the Phillies continue to entertain us, at least the White Sox and Cubs seem to have plans, and the Marlins have an enviable collection of young talent. The Brewers can’t say that, not with a farm system consistently ranked in the bottom five, and while giving up a first-round pick for Kendrys Morales certainly isn’t the answer, neither, it seems, is doing nothing at all. Signing Reynolds to a non-guaranteed deal is a nice little January move; it’s just a problem when it’s potentially your biggest move.

[paul253]

I've actually considered this a successful offseason for the Brewers, mainly because of some things they did NOT do:

 

1) They did not sign a free agent that causes them to lose their fist round pick again

2) They did not sign a free agent to a multi year deal that will block a prospect

3) They did not trade any prospects for veterans

 

Considering those were my three biggest fears heading into the off season I'm glad to see that at least Melvin didn't do any of that. I would have liked to see him shop Gomez but Melvin was probably driving himself crazy not trading away any prospects. You can't expect him to trade FOR prospects too.

[BuckyBrewer61]

If the idea is that the team finished 23 games back in an extremely tough division and there was little they could do to close that gap this winter, then that’s a defensible decision, except so far there’s been no movement on turning older players with some remaining value like Aramis Ramirez and Kyle Lohse who aren’t likely to be part of the next good Milwaukee team into young talent. It’s simply treading water, neither building for the future nor contending for now, and no matter how you feel about some particular off-field problems, this is no way to be spending the primes of Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez.

 

+100000

 

There has been a serious lack of direction with this franchise since 2011. Perhaps the window seemed open the following offseason, but it was painfully clear halfway through 2012 that the window of opportunity for that group of Brewers had closed.

 

I would contend that going into full rebuilding mode was the best strategy at that time, and still do. But if they chose to continue trying to compete - fine - but in that case try and actually compete. Have a purpose. Instead we are trying to half-arsedly compete with a below average team by holding onto players who actually have value but will never play for a contending Brewers team. I fear for the coming 5-10 years of Brewers baseball, and am disappointed we will likely only put one good team around a hall of fame caliber player in Ryan Braun.

[logan82]

I don't think it will happen but, if the pitching comes through the Brewers will be a pretty good team. Probably still not contenders but definitely an above average team. The team wasn't as bad as they ended up last year.

 

I would love to see some talent traded for younger talent, however there is a very good chance the brewers are being lowballed on trade offers. I really don't have a huge problem with the offseason so far. Last offseason was pretty much the same until they signed Lohse and Yuni in the same week.

[adambr2]

I don't think it will happen but, if the pitching comes through the Brewers will be a pretty good team. Probably still not contenders but definitely an above average team. The team wasn't as bad as they ended up last year.

 

I would love to see some talent traded for younger talent, however there is a very good chance the brewers are being lowballed on trade offers. I really don't have a huge problem with the offseason so far. Last offseason was pretty much the same until they signed Lohse and Yuni in the same week.

 

The rotation could actually be pretty good. There isn't a starter among Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada, Peralta and Thornburg that at least potentially couldn't put up an ERA in the mid 3.00s.

 

But, we did this last year as well. Fiers, Rogers, Peralta, all lit it up at the end of 2012, and we climbed all the way back from sellers to wild card contenders. We figured we were in pretty good shape for 2013, and we saw how that went.

 

So I'm approaching this year hoping for the best but believing that a whole lot of things would have to go right, and not a lot of things could go wrong, for us to even come close to contending.

 

It's not just us. The Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are just that much better than us, unfortunately, and none of them are really trending downward.

 

That's the payoff of taking your lumps and being patient during rebuilding years, having a long-term approach rather than a short-term one, and not holding the irrational belief every year that you are probably just a piece or two away from contention.

[Warning Track Power]

It's not just us. The Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are just that much better than us, unfortunately, and none of them are really trending downward.

While I can agree with you about the Cardinals and Pirates, I definitely disagree about whether the Reds are trending downwards. With their everyday lineup, they have already lost Choo and Hanigan, and there are still rumors that Phillips may be dealt. Looking at their everyday lineup they have the following guys, with their 2013 slash lines, currently penciled in to start:

 

C Mesoraco .238/.287/.362

SS Cozart .254/.284/.381

LF Ludwick .240/.293/.326 (Injured in 2013) or Heisey .237/.279/.415

CF Billy Hamilton (spent most of the year in the minors but from all indications may not hit enough to be an everyday MLB player ala Dee Gordon)

 

I think the Brewers lineup on January 21, 2014 is better than the Reds and could possibly be substantially better than the Reds.

 

Pitching is another story where the Reds SP are better to significantly better today. However, the Reds will soon be in a predicament with that as well. Arroyo likely is leaving now and the rumor is Bailey will not be affordable after 2014. Latos and Cueto free after 2015 similar to the Brewers with Gallardo & Lohse also free after 2015. A lot will depend on Leake & Cingrani, like the Brewers with Peralta & Thornburg.

 

Overall though, I see regression with the Reds and a descent from the success they have experienced over the past few seasons. In my mind, the Brewers and Reds will be battling for 3rd place with low to mid 80s win totals in 2014.

[fondybrewfan]

I still think that if the majority of our players play to their potential that this could be a Wild Card team. They aren't capable of winning it all but I don't think playoffs are a huge stretch with the 2nd wildcard. Craizer things have happened. The Crew has enough offensive talent to be a playoff team; obviously it will come down to how well guys like Gallardo, Peralta, and Thornburg pitch.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think it will happen but, if the pitching comes through the Brewers will be a pretty good team. Probably still not contenders but definitely an above average team. The team wasn't as bad as they ended up last year.

 

I would love to see some talent traded for younger talent, however there is a very good chance the brewers are being lowballed on trade offers. I really don't have a huge problem with the offseason so far. Last offseason was pretty much the same until they signed Lohse and Yuni in the same week.

 

 

I know this team can be competitive and that basis from the quote in the article of the Brewers being bottom 5 in the NL is really selling this team short. The problem with Milwaukee's team is that it doesn't have depth as well as Front-line Pitching. Going against our own division and the pitching matchups, you don't sit there and say yeah Lohse is better than the top 2 of the Reds/Pirates/Cards. Neither is Gallardo. Then you go to the #3s-5s and it falls around the same and that is with a 100% healthy season. Lohse or Gallardo go down and you move everyone up 1 in the rotation is looks worse matchup-wise putting Peralta or Estrada as our #2 vs the division #2s.

And let's say we get by the Starters even or even slightly ahead then we move to the 8th/9th inning guys.... Chapman,Rosenthal and Pittsburgh's continual successful Closer in the role, they're ahead of Henderson.

 

Really don't feel like the team is hurting offensively even with the 2b/1b situation and Khris Davis being inserted over Aoki. You just add up in the division matchups the what is it? 22games? And you figure the Starters of the other teams win 10 games to our 6 and the Bullpens their's win/don't blow 4 games to our 2. So going H2H in your division and expecting to compete in it, going 8-14 3 times puts you 18 games behind the top of the competition. Each W/L is 2 games so 9 games is really all it comes down to where I see us at vs. the Cards/Pirates/Reds. Is their 9 games our offense can explode and win a game that on paper vs. Wainwright/Latos/Liriano you don't expect? Or vs. Wacha/Cueto/Cole? Does our bullpen actually escape a game it looks like it was about to let slip away? Do we sneak a game away from their bullpen with amazing clutch ABs?

I think it can happen vs. 1 of the top 3 teams, just not vs. all 3. My guess is it will be vs. the Reds which is who I'm already thinking will be 3rd in the division.

And we need to remain healthy with hope that maybe a player or two from the top 3 spends some time on the 60day DL.