2014 25-man roster predictions -- 3.25.14: roster is set (see post #56)

[bork]

So it's looking like Segura may start the season on the DL. How long before we see Overbay-Weeks-Bianchi-Reynolds infield in the regular season?

[Baldkin]

Who plays OF in a Game say Gomez collides with Davis and both have to come out? Herrera? Bianchi?

 

 

Overbay, of course. He's our "Mark Kotsay type" this year.

 

Kidding. I'd imagine it would be Bianchi, as he played out there last year (it was only 5 innings, but he did play out there)

[monty57]

So it's looking like Segura may start the season on the DL. How long before we see Overbay-Weeks-Bianchi-Reynolds infield in the regular season?

 

Yesterday's game was televised, and at the start of the game, they said that Segura is playing games in the minor league camp. He's expected to be ready for Opening Day, but they aren't putting him with the MLB squad for the small chance that he tweaks something, as that would lessen how far they could backdate the DL trip.

 

But your point is valid. They are very thin at most positions. Their replacements are weak, so any injury could really hurt them.

[bork]

Man the infield depth is depressing throughout the system. Herrera is the only other non-1B infielder on the 40 man. After that you end up having to add someone like Velez or Falu. And who gets the call if a catcher gets hurt?

[paul253]

I can't really argue with Marco Estrada being in the rotation ahead of Thornburg. My two issues are 1) It didn't seem like Thornburg was ever really given a fair shot to win the #5 spot. And 2) Friggin decide what role he should have. I absolutely positively HATE this attitude that the Brewers' brass has that a young pitcher needs to pitch out of the bullpen first. They did it with Peralta and it screwed him up for months. Meanwhile, probably the one prospect who should be moved to the bullpen to figure some stuff out, Johnny Hellweg, continues to be talked about like he is some prized, can't miss prospect. Thornburg should be a starter until he proves he cannot handle the role. All he's done when given a chance to start in the majors is succeed. Let him start in Nashville, pitch regularly, and the come up when we need another starter. It frustrates me to no end that an organization as terrible at developing starting pitchers as Milwaukee continues to use the same formula when their top prospects are major league ready.

[jerichoholicninja]

I absolutely positively HATE this attitude that the Brewers' brass has that a young pitcher needs to pitch out of the bullpen first.

 

This is pretty much standard practice now with all teams with their non-top flight starter prospects. Everyone loves the Cards and Rays and they do it too.

[paul253]

This is pretty much standard practice now with all teams with their non-top flight starter prospects. Everyone loves the Cards and Rays and they do it too.

The Cards and Rays have been doing it lately because they have a ton of talent in the rotation (Cards have Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Lynn, Martinez, Kelly, TB has Price, Moore, Hellickson, Archer, Cobb, Odorizzi) and have no room for anyone else. Some teams, particularly TB, move veterans to make room for their top prospects. The Brewers don't seem to have any faith in their guys. They give them a shot in September but won't give them a shot in April. Like I said it's just frustrating that when the Brewers FINALLY have a pitching prospect ready they stash him in the bullpen.

[brewcrewdue80]

The thing with Thornburg, I think his role is that of Bullpen. I don't see him as a Starter practically at all this year. My feelings are Smith starts first(removing one of the extra LH RPs) and when the 2nd SP is needed, I see Nelson getting the call. But maybe I'm wrong, maybe its Thornburg then Nelson with Smith staying in the pen all year long.

 

Truthfully, I just hope the matter doesn't need to be addressed and Lohse/Gallardo/Peralta all go 33 starts this year and Estrada/Garza only go on the DL during separated occasions missing 2-4starts overall each.

 

I'm a big fan of Estrada. His K ability and low BB rate really is what you want from your SP. We fully know what Marco possesses which will be a 3.6-3.8ERA starter who can give you 7ip...he pitched in the 7th inning his last 6 straight starts to finish last season.

Thornburg in 2012 HR prone...suddenly in 2013 only 1HR given up. now, you look at his Minor stats and he gives up 2HR in the minors 2012...and 11 HRs in the minors 2013

So I feel he was a product of some luck last year with his 2ERA. His Ks were down in starts/walks higher not a good product when your luck turns on mistakes.

 

The argument Estrada has 2years left with the team so put him back in the bullpen? Again, he finished last year with 6 straight pitching in the 7th inning starts. This is a team borderline 81win to 88wins, Estrada gives us the best chance to see to 88wins and a Playoff berth..Giving Thornburg his chance? I'd immediately drop the teams win total to 77-83wins. But hey we got to see Thornburg pitch as a starter. It's great for the team's future!

You know what's great for the team's future? Estrada making 30starts or more this year. Then trade him in the offseason and run Thornburg/Nelson in his place next year.(of course kinda depends on the Gallardo option being picked up) Estrada is a real #3 SP. Thornburg's ceiling as been said is to be a #3 SP. We have that in Estrada, no need to figure out will Thornburg be a #3.

 

Edit add: The argument for Thornburg getting his shot shouldn't be directed at Estrada, it should be directed with signing Garza. Garza's signing is what blocked Thornburg/Smith/Nelson from rotating their shot at the #5 rotation spot.

[paul253]

You know what's great for the team's future? Estrada making 30starts or more this year. Then trade him in the offseason and run Thornburg/Nelson in his place next year.

What about Melvin's m.o. suggests he'd trade Estrada after a good season to make room for a prospect? He'd be more likely to offer Estrada a 3 year extension and keep Thornburg and Nelson in AAA for 4 seasons.

 

Hopefully the Estrada we get is the one after his injury (2.23 ERA) and not the one before it (5.32 ERA)

 

But again, my issue is not so much Estrada as the #5 but with Thornburg in the bullpen. At some point we'll need another starter and he won't be ready to pitch more than 3 or 4 innings if he's in the bullpen.

[reillymcshane]

I'm fine with Thornburg in the pen for 2014. I'd rather have him giving us 75 innings of quality relief than sitting in AAA. I realize that if someone is injured, he might not transition to the starting rotation as easily as if he's starting at Nashville. But I'll take that. The guy played well last year - he deserves a regular shot in the big leagues. Plus, if there is an injury and we need someone long term, he can be worked into the spot. It will take some time, but it's not like it's never been done. And if it's for a start or two, you can always call up Nelson (or Burgos or Fiers or whomever).

 

If Thornburg does well as a reliever in 2014, the team can consider him for the rotation in 2015 - potentially moving someone in a trade (Estrada, Gallardo, Lohse) if necessary. The Brewers have typically not done this with pitchers - but one of the main reason is that they haven't had quality guys waiting to step up. Peralta is the first starter we've produced since Gallardo. Over the last five years or so we've patched together our rotation through free agency (Suppan, Wolf, Garza, Lohse, Looper), waiver finds (Narveson, Estrada), and trades (Greinke, Marcum, Bush, Capuano). Even our relievers are like that - lots of waiver and low cost FA types (Axford, Henderson, Figaro, Kintzler, Coffey, Shouse, DeFelice, Loe).

 

Outside of Gallardo and Peralta, we've produced very few pitchers - starter or reliever - who have helped the team. Or even been highly touted. I can only think of a couple of guys - Manny Parra and Mark Rogers - neither of which turned out great.

 

I just hope we can start producing more low cost, home grown pitchers. Guys like Nelson, Thornburg, Wooten, Hellweg, Pena, Jungmann and others should start helping us more and more. We shouldn't have to rely on the Livan Hernandez's of the world.

 

I always thought Thornburg would end up as a reliever. I just didn't think he had three good pitches to survive long term. However, he showed me (and others) last year that we have to consider him for the rotation. I don't think he's a lock, but a good 2014 should put him into consideration for starting next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm fine with Thornburg in the pen for 2014. I'd rather have him giving us 75 innings of quality relief than sitting in AAA. I realize that if someone is injured, he might not transition to the starting rotation as easily as if he's starting at Nashville. But I'll take that. The guy played well last year - he deserves a regular shot in the big leagues. Plus, if there is an injury and we need someone long term, he can be worked into the spot. It will take some time, but it's not like it's never been done. And if it's for a start or two, you can always call up Nelson (or Burgos or Fiers or whomever).

This is exactly how I feel on Thornburg. Plus, in terms of his development, I think it's more important at this point for him to continue to be challenged with MLB hitters as opposed to being fully stretched out for being 'first man up' from AAA. And on top of that, I can guarantee you Tyler is happier to be collecting a big-league paycheck & living the dream of The Show than he would be to grind it out again in Nashville.

[logan82]

It would probably be easier to work Thornburg into the rotation if he is in the pen than if he was starting in AAA.

[Thurston Fluff]

What about Melvin's m.o. suggests he'd trade Estrada after a good season to make room for a prospect?

 

Lyle Overbay was traded to make room for Prince Fielder.

[logan82]

None of our current prospects are projected to be stars like Fielder was.

 

Edit: Aoki is probably a better example but look what Davis had to do to force that to happen.

[FVBrewerFan]

Who thinks a 6th started won't be needed at some point in the season? Exactly. That's why having Thornburg in the pen is a non-issue. He will get his starts if he's pitching well out of the pen. This isn't Strasburg we're talking about, nothing is written that Thornburg "deserves" to be in the rotation to start the season, or ever. It's up to him now. He's young, and if he's good enough to be a part of the rotation, he will be there. Same goes for Jimmy Nelson by the way.

[DoubleSwitch]

>What about Melvin's m.o. suggests he'd trade Estrada after a good season to make room for a prospect?

 

When have the Brewers ever been in a position where they could afford to trade away a starter who could give them average to above average innings? They've never really had this kind of SP depth ever in Melvins tenure, depressing as that is to think about. The 2011 rotation was better at the top, but that team had paper thin depth and got extremely lucky with health. Coincidentally, when they did need another starter it was Marco Estrada who pitched very well in the swingman role. He started the year in the rotation, but had long stretches between starts and threw in relief in between. Latter in the season when he was needed again he went back in the rotation and performed, throwing 64, 94 then 100 pitches in three starts. So, not fully stretched, but also not 3 to 5 games before he could pitch a full game like someone said earlier.

[brewcrewdue80]

You know what's great for the team's future? Estrada making 30starts or more this year. Then trade him in the offseason and run Thornburg/Nelson in his place next year.

What about Melvin's m.o. suggests he'd trade Estrada after a good season to make room for a prospect? He'd be more likely to offer Estrada a 3 year extension and keep Thornburg and Nelson in AAA for 4 seasons.

 

Hopefully the Estrada we get is the one after his injury (2.23 ERA) and not the one before it (5.32 ERA)

 

But again, my issue is not so much Estrada as the #5 but with Thornburg in the bullpen. At some point we'll need another starter and he won't be ready to pitch more than 3 or 4 innings if he's in the bullpen.

 

Yeah I know the writing hasn't been there for Melvin to trade Estrada after this season if it's positive. But as mentioned it's a depth situation. I think of Estrada as being potentially Doug Fister( I just hope a far better single player return for Estrada) when the season is over. And the move to get either Thornburg or Nelson in to the rotation for 2015 as a result of moving Estrada.

I'm amazed there hasn't been a trade for Estrada already by a Pitcher's Ballpark team in the NL. San Diego? San Fran? Dodgers? Estrada's Control and K ability put in a non-homer friendly Ballpark? I think a team is acquiring a 3ERA SP. San Diego should be calling imo! They nabbed Cashner, Estrada would have made a great addition. Anyway, getting back to reality, Thornburg or whoever Spot starts in an emergency, these guys will go 65-70Pitches, 3-5ip as a stretch it out and then the next time out will be 85-90 which is enough to go 6innings. It's really no big problem in my eyes. You gotta remember Thornburg's role isn't tied to the 7th,8th,9th ip role. He's likely on a stretched out 25-45 Pitch outing where he likely has a day off to recover following. When he leaves the game he could pitch behind the scenes another 15-20pitches keeping him "Stretched out" to begin with.