2014 25-man roster predictions -- 3.25.14: roster is set (see post #56)

[SoupTown]

Overbay playing himself out helps define the roster. In fact, one thing I have noticed this spring is the gap between the MLB (even AAAA) guys and the rest. The longer the spring goes, the more the players sort THEMSELVES out. So with Overbay gone (soon). I think it gets Bianchi back in the 25th spot.

 

Rotation: Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Estrada, Peralta

Bullpen: Henderson, Kintzler, Smith, K-Rod, Wang, Thornburg

Lineup: C-Lucroy 1B-JuanFran 2B-Weeks/Scooter platoonish SS-Segura 3B-Ramirez LF-Davis CF-Gomez RF-Braun

Bench: C-Maldy, IF/OF-Herrera, OF-Schafer, Bianchi IF, 1B/3B-Reynolds (JuanFran seems to have outplayed Mark for the starter spot!)

 

Start the year one bullpen guy short. When Gorzelanny is back then you need to decide what to do with Weeks/Scooter/Bianchi. Likely Scooter to AAA.

[JohnBriggs12]

Duke's meltdown yesterday probably sealed his fate. There's no reason to add him to the 40 man now. He can start in Nashville. It certainly helped Wang's chances though I still wouldn't rule out a trade with Pittsburgh so he can be optioned out and groomed as a starter at AA.

 

I still think Weeks is going to be traded, and that Gindl is going to take that 5th OF spot over Herrera. Herrera has an option and should be playing SS in Nashville. Bianchi with zero options is having a good enough spring to stick though a trade for him wouldn't be a shock either. I just don't think they'll simply expose him to waivers. If Bianchi were to be dealt, that would open a spot for Herrera, and might allow the Gennett/Weeks platoon instead of keeping Gindl. Otherwise if they keep Weeks I think they option Scooter. That's not what I would like to see happen, but Weeks would have 6 weeks or about 120 AB's to sink or swim. If he starts like he has the past two seasons, bye bye.

 

Blazek is one guy who pitched himself off the opening day roster. I think they wanted him to make it.

[djoctagone]

[Duke] can start in Nashville.

 

Herrera has an option and should be playing SS in Nashville. Bianchi with zero options is having a good enough spring to stick though a trade for him wouldn't be a shock either. I just don't think they'll simply expose him to waivers. If Bianchi were to be dealt, that would open a spot for Herrera, and might allow the Gennett/Weeks platoon instead of keeping Gindl.

we've yet to hear if duke has an opt-out clause in his contract, but i'd suspect that he does and can declare free agency if he doesn't make the big league club. again, just suspicion on my part.

 

if bianchi is lost to the organization and herrera makes the club, the brewers have no depth at nashville on the 40-man for the left side of the infield. thus, advantage to both making the club, or keeping bianchi and optioning herrera.

[brewers4eric]

Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Estrada

Henderson, KRod, Kintzler, Smith, Wang, Thornburg, Figaro

ARam, Segura, Bianchi, Weeks, Gennett, Reynolds, Francisco

Davis, Schafer, Gomez, Braun

Lucroy, Maldonado

 

I think it will be interesting to see how they configure the roster out of spring training, especially with the interleague series against Boston in the immediate future. Schafer gives them a decent defensive option for all three outfield spots, which they will need, as the platoons at first and second base sap their roster flexibility. The commuter flights between Milwaukee and Nashville will be busy this year shuttling bullpen options between AAA and the parent club.

[reillymcshane]

Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Estrada

Henderson, KRod, Kintzler, Smith, Wang, Thornburg, Figaro

ARam, Segura, Bianchi, Weeks, Gennett, Reynolds, Francisco

Davis, Schafer, Gomez, Braun

Lucroy, Maldonado

 

 

I this point, I think this is mostly correct. Even a couple of days ago, I would have thought Overbay would make the team, but looking at his numbers, they are brutally bad. Francisco has hit well - even taking a lot of walks. The strikeouts are still a concern.

 

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Wooten make it over Figaro.

[JohnBriggs12]

Barring a trade it appears the opening day roster is set:

 

Rotation:

Gallardo

Lohse

Garza

Estrada

Peralta

 

Bullpen:

Henderson

Rodríguez

Kintzler

Duke

Thornburg

Smith

Wang

 

Outfield:

Davis

Schafer

Gómez

Braun

 

Infield:

Reynolds

Overbay

Weeks

Gennett

Segura

Ramírez

Bianchi

 

Catchers:

Lucroy

Maldonado

 

 

Gorzelanny is lone guy on DL.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nice post, Briggs. I'm going to reformat it so it's a touch easier to read/reference, & we'll point to it in the thread title.

[brewmann04]

2 1st baseman and 2 Second Baseman on this roster to open the season . well at least they kept Wang.

[Warning Track Power]

2 1st baseman and 2 Second Baseman on this roster to open the season . well at least they kept Wang.

As I posted in a different thread, I am ok with the platoon at 2B but what is really hard to swallow is two 1B where neither can play the OF. That makes the construction of this roster exceptionally challenging.

[reillymcshane]

Three left handed relievers is interesting. RRR said the club views Duke as a lefty specialist - but Wang is not.

[pete]

I didn't hear it, only discussed, but didn't RR say there wasn't a platoon at 2nd? Whoever is playing better is what he said, which I ran through my, uh, not the truth translator and it came out, they can't because it would be mostly Gennett playing then. I don't think 1st will be a platoon either.

[ewitkows]

Would have rather left Thornburg in AAA to start and been the 1st to call up

[gregmag]

I like platoons when they're better than the alternatives, and both the 1b and 2b platoons seem to be that. I understand the concerns about roster flexibility. OTOH, NL clubs often keep pinch-hitters with little or no thought for their defensive value. I'm not sure how what the Brewers have is any worse than that. It would be great, of course, if these guys had positional flexibility, but they amount to platoon pieces / bench bats. A greater concern is that any one or more of these four players presents a real threat to stink up the joint, but hopefully the platoon advantage will help them all.

 

I love the pitching staff. The only overpriced FA in the pen is Rodriguez, and I guess at this point we have a special relationship with him. Everybody else is young and/or a castoff -- exactly the kinds of guys you should get to construct a pen. The rotation looks very solid, with the needle between so-so and very strong likely to move based more on Peralta than anything else. Well, that and injuries, but we've got Thornburg in the pen and Nelson at AAA waiting for their chances.

[paul253]

Would have rather left Thornburg in AAA to start and been the 1st to call up

 

I get so tired of the way they treat Thornburg. He's been their top pitching prospect for years now yet all they do is flip him between the rotation in the minors and the bullpen in Milwaukee. He has earned the right to compete for a starting job, which I don't think he was ever truly doing in spring training. And while I'm sure he's happy just to be in Milwaukee having him sit in the bullpen as the long man is a waste of his potential. We have plenty of other guys who could be the long man.

[MNBrew]

Would have rather left Thornburg in AAA to start and been the 1st to call up

 

I get so tired of the way they treat Thornburg. He's been their top pitching prospect for years now yet all they do is flip him between the rotation in the minors and the bullpen in Milwaukee. He has earned the right to compete for a starting job, which I don't think he was ever truly doing in spring training. And while I'm sure he's happy just to be in Milwaukee having him sit in the bullpen as the long man is a waste of his potential. We have plenty of other guys who could be the long man.

I agree . . . but I also don't. It's cherry-picking, but I see Thornburg's role & value like Estrada's a few years ago: Become solid out of the bullpen, then be on hand already to start when there's an injury.

 

Before anyone gets too miffed about Thornburg, keep in mind that the Twins did this w/ Johan Santana for 2 if not 3 seasons before they figured out that he should be in the Opening Day rotation . . . even though he was strong in the rotation the couple 1/2 seasons he had as a starter.

[TheCrew07]

Before anyone gets too miffed about Thornburg, keep in mind that the Twins did this w/ Johan Santana for 2 if not 3 seasons before they figured out that he should be in the Opening Day rotation . . . even though he was strong in the rotation the couple 1/2 seasons he had as a starter.

 

I'm not sure Santana has to do with this situation other than he's the absolute best case for stashing a rule 5 pick in the bullpen for a season? He was rule 5 pick like Wang so it wouldn't have made sense to put him into the rotation, it's apples and oranges. Thornburg has already gotten his feet wet and doesn't need his innings limited like Gallardo when he first came up. Young pitchers need to be given an extended shot to start and I grow weary of DM and RR making it sound like they did Peralta such a big favor by letting him pitch until mid summer when he started to turn the corner.

 

How is making an instant splash the most reasonable expectation for any young player? Ride them out for a season, give them room to grow (meaning don't continually bench or demote them at the first sign of trouble), and see where they are at the end of the season. I don't understand this notion that you can't tolerate having struggling rookies on a playoff team, that somehow underperforming young players only have a place on rebuilding teams. What's the difference performance wise from your typical crappy veteran 5th starter and rookie putting up those same stats? At least the young player has the opportunity to improve.

 

Estrada, always has been and remains a very replaceable pitcher. He's just good enough with a high K rate for people make the standard FIP arguments in his favor but he's also just bad enough that he's always going to give up more runs than people think he should. When adding in his consistent health issues and age I end up being pretty indifferent, I don't care if he's in the rotation or not. That being said, he's also not someone I'm going to work to find a rotation slot for. As such he's fine if you don't have any other options but when you do have a more talented pitcher waiting he should be first the starter sent to the bullpen where maybe he can last a full season.

[DoubleSwitch]

Estrada is the better pitcher right now and he should get the call. Even if he only ends up making 15-20 starts that's still more valuable than a full season out of the pen. Injuries will come and Thornburg and Nelson will likely both get their chance to start. If were talking about a future ace, top 20 prospect, then yeah I think you give him a shot and let him work through some stuff. I know compared to the prospects we have Thornburg looks pretty great, but he isn't that type of guy. A future 3/4 fringy type guy like Thornburg has to earn his rotation spot with his play. He isn't one of the 5 best guys so he shouldn't start in the rotation it's as simple as that. Throwing some innings out of the pen isn't going to kill him.

[bork]

Not a lot of flexibility on the 40 man either, for the inevitable injury. 10 pitchers, 2 1B, 1 IF, 1 OF.

[monty57]

Given the current situation, I'm fine with Estrada being in the rotation, but I do wish Thornburg was starting in Nashville. With Wang and Duke on the team, I don't expect Thornburg to be the "long man." Instead, he will be used as a regular middle reliever. When injury hits, he will not be stretched out, so if they decide to go with him as a starter, his first start will be limited to around 2-3 IP, then a little more, then after 3-5 starts he'll finally be allowed to pitch a full game. If we are indeed trying to win this year, why would we throw away games like this and burn out our bullpen when it would be really easy to just keep Wooten on the roster as a middle reliever and call up Thornburg when he's needed?

 

He also appears to be the only RHP in the bullpen who will not be labeled "Closer" or "setup guy." That tells me that he will be pitching nearly every day. Do we want to put that much stress on one of our best young arms, especially considering he's trained himself to be a starter, pitching every fifth day?

 

On a different note, there looks to be a possibility that Weeks could be traded to Texas. Not saying it's likely, but if this happens (and if we didn't get a MLB player back), who would everyone replace him with? Would you go with someone like Herrera who can play everywhere, Gindl as a 5th OF/LH bat off the bench, or someone else?

[fondybrewfan]

Have they just come out and said Thornburg is the long man? If he is in the bullpen I would love for him to be a 7th or 8th inning guy. Wang, Thornburg, and Smith can all go multiple innings so I hope the best pitcher of the 3 doesn't get put in the crappiest role.

[TheCrew07]

I know compared to the prospects we have Thornburg looks pretty great, but he isn't that type of guy. A future 3/4 fringy type guy like Thornburg has to earn his rotation spot with his play. He isn't one of the 5 best guys so he shouldn't start in the rotation it's as simple as that.

 

Wait... so a young fringy 3/4 who could play a significant part in the Brewers' present and future has to earn his spot but a fringy 3/4 who has proven he can't stay healthy, is 30 years old, and only has 2 years of team control remaining deserves that spot more? How can we arbitrarily make the assumption that Estrada will out pitch Thornburg this year? There are many posters on this forum very educated on our minor league system and what the ceiling of those particular players are. I like projections, though I admittedly despise them when they applied to prospects because trying to project what young players will do is an exercise in futility. They may start slow and finish incredibly strong that first year, they may hit the ground running, they may struggle for an entire season, or they might have career arc like Homer Bailey... we just don't know.

 

Sticking with a talented pitcher like Bailey, what did the Reds really lose by letting him be their 5th starter all those years? I would much rather have our last 2 rotation spots go to talented younger pitchers working their way into the big leagues than someone who's on their way out or nearing the end of team control. AAA isn't some magic proving ground, it's not as if spending multiple seasons at that level makes a player any more prepared to instantly succeed in MLB, eventually every player has to be given a long enough leash in MLB to succeed or fail with the biggest jump in talent. That's why you end up with so many "AAAA players", because if they don't right the ship in a couple of months they go back down, which makes them press harder the next time they get a MLB opportunity, and eventually it just continues on that way.

 

The last thing you want you any player to be doing is worrying about failing because it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy... we tend to get exactly what we expect. I spent my youth riding around in a farm truck listening to sports psychology tape sets, I don't expect people to really understand if they haven't put the time in, but I firmly believe that the "problem" with young players is simply that the vast majority of organizations don't truly understand what it takes to develop talent and get the best out of people. If you force an athlete to think of nothing but "not failing", then failing is exactly what they are going to do.*

 

Furthermore the only kind of prospect that should be given the opportunity to compete is a potential ace? We've had 2 of those prospects in the last 25 years... So this parade of 2nd and 3rd tier FA pitchers is the best route available to us?

 

Finally how exactly does a young pitcher earn their spot if they don't get a chance? What you're really talking about here is insurance, you want all of the VETERAN pitchers in front of the prospect to fail in some manner so there is no other option. I'm not sure Thornburg is a starting pitcher, I still hold out hope, but what more could he have done at the end of last season to prove he belongs?

 

LET THEM PLAY! (it shouldn't be tough to figure out who DM/MA, RR, and Thornburg are)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXhFcKCcozE

 

 

* My father is a hall of fame coach in WI but we also owned a horse stable, so in addition to sports we spent much of our time doing farm work, and we also had a 35 minute commute to school everyday. I have yet to see anyone work as hard at improving themselves and others as my father, I am truly blessed to have him. Wherever the truck was: school, practice, any of the barns or farms, those tape sets were there playing the background. He owned everything done by the following gentlemen up to the point he finally retired from coaching last year.

 

Dr. Wayne Dyer

Tony Robbins

Zig Ziglar

 

There was also a class geared towards high school athletes which my father taught after school called "The Making of a Champion". A quick google search didn't turn up any current literature or a website which was disappointing, though the Seahawks put out of a video of the same name. I learned visualization (which I still utilize) from that class, perhaps it ended up being rebranded over the years? There were other tape sets, I remember one by Don Schula and though I hated the Dolphins growing up, his run of success and ability to adapt to changing players and an evolving game over the length of his coaching career had earned my respect. There just aren't many coaches in any sport who are willing to continually adapt what they do and keep pushing forward.

 

The point here is that many people disregard the psychological aspect of sports because it's nearly impossible to measure, however I'm firm believer in "mind over matter". They want to believe in luck and random chance, not in sports, but in life as well. I don't believe in luck, I never have, why are good teams "lucky" and bad teams "unlucky"? I believe what's going on in a player's head is far more important than his or her physical ability. There is a baseline of athleticism you'll need to be successful at each level of sports, but just about anyone who wants it bad enough can be a key contributor through high school sports. I've witnessed many players I thought wouldn't make it as freshman become all conference players by the time they were seniors though effort in the weight room and sheer force of will. The mind is a magnificent tool.

[monty57]

Duke and Gorzellany (when he's back) can go multiple innings as well, so it would really be a bad move if he's the "long man." The "long man" role should be reserved for a vet pitcher who you don't mind sitting on the bench for extended periods and then pitching multiple innings several times in a week. In other words, someone whose future arm health is not a concern to the team.

 

I think we'll have Hederson as "closer," Rodriguez as "8th inning guy," and probably Kintzler as "7th inning guy." Wang will get forgotten on the bench, Duke will be "long guy," leaving many, many appearances for Thornburg and Smith. I could see him pitching 80 games if he stays in the bullpen all year, and I could see that not being the best for the future of his arm.

 

But, he won't be in the bullpen all year, as he will be called on for a "spot start" here and there. At that point, he'll be unavailable from the pen for a few days, and will be limited to 3 IP or so in his start, so the bullpen will be completely trashed by the time his spot start is done. If his future is as a starter, I'd rather just have him stretched out in Nashville, ready to step in when needed. That leads me to believe that Nelson (and others?) has surpassed him on the depth chart, and the Brewers see his future as a reliever/spot starter.

[Warning Track Power]

Wait... so a young fringy 3/4 who could play a significant part in the Brewers' present and future has to earn his spot but a fringy 3/4 who has proven he can't stay healthy, is 30 years old, and only has 2 years of team control remaining deserves that spot more? How can we arbitrarily make the assumption that Estrada will out pitch Thornburg this year?

I like outside of the box thinking to try and improve the Brewers. Estrada has seemingly gotten a ton of love recently on the internet machine and like TC07 has stated, only has 2 years of team control left and is no sure thing to outpitch Thornburg in 2014. Why not look into the possibility of moving him to improve the Brewers in other areas namely 1B and 3B? Surely, someone like the Mariners would be interested in the possibility of acquiring Estrada and may be willing to part with talent in order to do so. Ackley, Smoak, Franklin, etc...are all players that may be able to help the Brewers immediately and long term at 3B, 1B or 2B. Franklin is not a FA until after 2019, Smoak after 2016 and Ackley after 2017, which means controlling the players 6 years, 3 years and 4 years. A package of two of them for Estrada and filler is a route I wish the Brewers would take.

 

Maximizing Estrada now, who very well could be replaceable immediately by Thornburg or Nelson is one way of improving the Brewers for the long term. Plus Estrada, I doubt is a candidate for an extension after the next two seasons, so why not maximize him by acquiring 6 years of Franklin and say 3 years of Smoak for 2 years of Estrada?

[brewcrewdue80]

Who plays OF in a Game say Gomez collides with Davis and both have to come out? Herrera? Bianchi?

 

[danzig6767]

Estrada is the better pitcher right now and he should get the call. Even if he only ends up making 15-20 starts that's still more valuable than a full season out of the pen. Injuries will come and Thornburg and Nelson will likely both get their chance to start. If were talking about a future ace, top 20 prospect, then yeah I think you give him a shot and let him work through some stuff. I know compared to the prospects we have Thornburg looks pretty great, but he isn't that type of guy. A future 3/4 fringy type guy like Thornburg has to earn his rotation spot with his play. He isn't one of the 5 best guys so he shouldn't start in the rotation it's as simple as that. Throwing some innings out of the pen isn't going to kill him.

 

Plus, the odds are slim that the rotation stays healthy. Pitchers in baseball have to go on the DL all of the time. It's only a matter of when a spot in the rotation opens up this season.

 

That said, it will be interesting to see if Estrada can ever manage to stay healthy and have results closer to his secondary numbers. He limits baserunners well and gets plenty of strikeouts, but home runs kill him and maybe he'll never be able to avoid that from plaguing him.