Why are the Brewers so Much Better Earlier in the Week?

[rluzinski]

Is this their problem?

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/weekdaysplit1.jpg

 

Broken down each day of the week:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/weekdaysplit2.jpg

 

My thoughts:

 

LINK

 

Obviously unacceptable. The question is, what do you do about it?

[Brian the Automator]

Someone at work just brought up the idea that perhaps they've been playing good teams on weekend series and bad teams during the week.

[rluzinski]

Then why are they only .500 on Wednesdays!?

[pg44]

Those numbers mean nothing. Just like their overall record they will change over the course of the year. Last year they lost the first couple retro games - and badly at that - and people wanted to make something of that. It's called coincidence.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Those numbers mean nothing. Just like their overall record they will change over the course of the year. Last year they lost the first couple retro games - and badly at that - and people wanted to make something of that. It's called coincidence. ]

 

I'm assuming the thread was meant as something tongue-in-cheek... but it's interesting nonetheless.

[davebobn]

I wonder what will happen tomorrow since they've had quite a few days of rest, but it'll feel like a Monday for the guys. Could this pattern possibly flip?!?!!?

[adambr2]

While I'm assuming this was intended as a shot on my home vs. road record thread, I think we can all assume that being 17 game over .500 at the break at home and 7 under on the road DOES indicate a major difference in play, especially when you showed the biggest difference last year.

 

Again, I'm sure you intended this as a joke, but to play along, I'm sure the correlation here is a tougher SOS so far early in the week, more home games earlier in the week, or just plain coincidence. Or a combination of the 3.

[dadofandrew]

Since they play basically everyday, there is no fatigue factor. Small samples lead to goofy numbers, and this is one example. If you'd look at the team's history, I would guess they are all but equal on a daily basis.

[sbrylski]

Russ, are you being sarcastic? This is just statistical noise.

 

I would say the split to look at and try to fix is home/road.

[BrewCrewRising]

Quote:

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Then why are they only .500 on Wednesdays!?

---

 

You know what else is weird? They play 20% of their weekday games on Wednesdays.

[rluzinski]

Russ, are you being sarcastic? This is just statistical noise.

 

I would say the split to look at and try to fix is home/road.

 

1. My split is almost certainly entirely statistical noise:

 

2. The extreme home / road split could also be entirely statistical noise (although no one knows) and isn't even close to being statistically significant.

 

The point is, it's very easy to find all sorts of extreme splits. In fact, it would be more unlikely to be able to NOT find an extreme split, whether at the team or individual level.

 

The tough part is determining if it tells you anything. I see all sorts of reasons being suggested for the home road split but no one seems willing to entertain "luck" as being all or part of the explanation. It's obviously not the only explanation but it should be considered.

[IslandsAC]

Quote:

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The question is, what do you do about it?

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Well obviously I'm going to just alternate Mondays and Tuesdays for the rest of the season. I'll go into work every day and make sure I ask everyone how their weekend was every other day (my 'Mondays')

[sgtcluels]

I got it! They must be American Idol fans and go to bed at a reasonable hour to watch.

 

Interesting trending, I guess they don't have a case of the mondays!

[DougJones43]

Obviously, Sunday and Monday are the only time these young hellraisers don't go out partying all night.

 

Monday - Tuesday: Alert, focused, ready for baseball

 

Wednesday - Sunday: Tired, hungover, can't focus on baseball because they are thinking about the girl(s) they hooked up with the night before and whether or not they should go to the doctor to be tested for "the clap"

[kmcasper23]

Because Yost thinks its funny to play mediocre lineups at the end of the week. There record on Sundays is probably horrible. I went to a game on a Sunday and this was the lineup he had:

 

Hart

Counsell

Braun

Hall

Mench

Miller

Graffinino

Weeks

Gallardo

 

Tell me how you win with a lineup that doesn't include Fielder, Jenkins, Hardy, and Estrada all in the same day. But this is typical Yost. It is good to rest a guy here and there but not four of your starters in the same day!

[rluzinski]

I think you may be on to something. Day/night splits for the team this year:

 

DAY: .259 / .321 / .429 / .750

NIGHT: .272 / .338 / .472 / .810

 

Give the lushes a couple extra hours to sleep off their hangovers and they are good to go.

[Big Reed]

anybody check on the new movie release dates as a possible factor?

 

the new movies usually come out on Wednesday night or thursday. I' m thinking the brewers go to see the movies their first or second night after the game, and then are tired the next day. by Sunday, they've already seen transformers and Ratatuliue.

 

I would hate to state the obvious: that certain club performers at certain clubs only perform Thursday through Saturday and usually take Sunday and Monday night off. Anybod y know whic h days are wet tshirt days and cheap beer days at the local night extablishments?

 

With a young club I have a bad feeling they have a tendency to party, and a tendency to party more on the weekends rather than maintaining their baseball focus and going to bed in their own room and actually going to sleep at 10 PM. I have a bad feeling some oats are being sown and our players are out on the town.

[jhart05]

Start giving the starters a rest on Monday thru Wednesday to even this out. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[And That]

Maybe Ned makes his "famous" tacos on Wednesday, and everyone eats them, but no one is willing to tell him that the ensuing trips to the bathroom leave them exhausted all the way through the weekend, and that frankly, its not just that he puts way too many refried beans in them, but that he uses a crazy concoction of Velveeta and cottage cheese instead of, you know, like, some cheddar or monterrey jack or something.

 

And that guacamole ain't right.

 

At least, I think that's the most likely reason.

[brettac1]

I have a bad feeling some oats are being sown and our players are out on the town.

 

The thing with this theory is that every team has a bunch of guys who party it up every night of the week, so like Al pointed out in regards to the "fatigue factor" not existing because both teams play every day, I don't think the hangover factor is real either because it effects both teams.

 

I think kmcasper's theory makes some sense, they lose some day games after night games and days when three or four starters get days off. Most times these are Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays.

 

Really, though, it's just noise.

[jhart05]

Quote:

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Maybe Ned makes his "famous" tacos on Wednesday, and everyone eats them, but no one is willing to tell him that the ensuing trips to the bathroom leave them exhausted all the way through the weekend, and that frankly, its not just that he puts way too many refried beans in them, but that he uses a crazy concoction of Velveeta and cottage cheese instead of, you know, like, some cheddar or monterrey jack or something.

 

And that guacamole ain't right.

---

 

 

That is frickin' great!! LOL!!!

[rluzinski]

I started this thread to illustrate that you can find a lot of odd but almost completely random splits if you just look for them. That apparently didn't work out. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[Jimbo]

 Do a Chi-Sqaure Test. Day Wins Losses Expected Wins (W-E)^2/E M 9 4 7.24 0.428 T 9 5 7.80 0.186 W 7 7 7.80 0.081 R 4 2 3.34 0.130 F 6 7 7.24 0.212 S 7 7 7.80 0.081 N 7 7 7.80 0.081 Total 49 39 49.00 1.200 6 degrees of freedom, at 95% confidence; critical value = 12.592 1.200 < 12.592 therefore, the difference in daily win percentage is strictly a random occurrance. 

[rluzinski]

the difference in daily win percentage is strictly a random occurrence.

 

I think the fair way to phrase that is, "the difference is not statistically significant and could be completely explained by luck."

 

Maybe the Brewer players are boozing it up later int the week but these splits aren't proof of it.