(Likely?) Scenario - Aramis Ramirez will still be a Brewer in 2015, and That'll End Up a Good Thing

[igor67]

Given the dearth of first basemen, I think that 4 million buyout gives Aramis a fair bit of leverage. Assuming he stays north of an .800 OPS even with less HR power the RBIs are still there. I'd be surprised if he got less than a 1 year 10 million dollar deal at this point.

[Outlander]

I think he would get $10 million from another team but not $14 million from another team so it makes sense for him to pick up the option. Makes sense for the Brewers as they probably don't want to sign somebody to a long term deal so signing Ramirez for $10 million is less risky than the alternative. If Rogers improves defensively he could maybe be the starter in 2015. Could be the backup at first and third at some point in 2015.

[owbc]

I expect them to pick up the option. It's not even much of an overpay--in fact, Ramirez could possibly get even more money from another team.

[And That]

Barring another major knee injury this season, it would, in my humble opinion, be pretty silly for the Brewers to not pick up their end of the option. Ramirez has to pick up his end too, though, and given that he might be able to a multi-year deal on the open market, it is far from a foregone conclusion he'd exercise the option.

 

Could the Brewers over him arbitration if he declined the option? I can never remember how that works with option years.

[trwi7]

Could the Brewers over him arbitration if he declined the option? I can never remember how that works with option years.

 

No reason why they can't.

[EauClaireNWL]

I think at this point if he's healthy for a good portion of the second half, given the state of our starting infield right now, I don't see how the Brewers don't pick up their end of the option especially with Attanasio pushing our payroll over 100 million this season. It'd be up to ARam and his agent after the season ends if they feel he can get a better deal or not by declining the option and probable arbitration offer.

[joepepsi]

I'll gladly take Ramirez back next year, just not at $16 million. If we give him the $4 million buyout and get him for $8-10 million, I'd be okay with that.

So...you're OK to pay him $14 million, but not $16 million? Really, what's the difference? They have no viable option at 3rd.

 

He's solid at 3B and can still hit and they have no replacement who can reach the numbers. I think it's foregone they pick up the option and a good idea.

[ewitkows]

[sarcasm]Mark Reynolds can play 3rd[/sarcasm]

[sveumrules]

Assuming Aramis is healthy at season's end I see him and the crew agreeing to ditch the option in favor of a new 2 year, 25 million contract. They'll then move him to first and sign Headley to a 1 year prove yourself contract. Corner infield WOAH SOLVDD.

[trwi7]

So...you're OK to pay him $14 million, but not $16 million? Really, what's the difference?

 

Uhh, $2 million. Not exactly chump change.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd like to see them make a run at Sandoval myself or a lefty hitting 1B who's a clear upgrade. I would think they'd re-sign Reynolds and move him back to 3B if they have to pay a premium for a Victor Martinez or Adam LaRoche to play 1B. If they can get a Morneau who's reasonably priced in a trade, they'd have room for Ramirez too.

 

There's definitely a possibility Ramirez returns though.

[monty57]

I'd like to see them make a run at Sandoval myself or a lefty hitting 1B who's a clear upgrade.

 

"Opportunity cost" is certainly a variable in whether or not to exercise the option. The thing is, they need to decide on the option pretty quickly after the season is over. If they decline the option because they would rather go after someone like Sandoval, they need to be sure they're going to get him or they could get stuck with patchwork at 1B and 3B.

 

I think Ramirez is already someone who would benefit from a day or two per week off, so I think there is a good chance that he will not be worth the option price next year. However, if we don't exercise the option, we'd better find answers at 1B and 3B somewhere. Filling 1B has been tough for the past two years, so I doubt that Melvin could find answers at both positions.

 

One thing: Cot's has 2015 listed as "$14M mutual option ($4M buyout)" so the option, if exercised would be for $14MM, not $16MM as I thought it was and others have also mentioned.

[igor67]

I agree unless something happens the option is the simple route to go, and then they can look for options at either 1st or 3rd in the offseason. If the buyout wasn't so high there might be a chance they'd try to go a completely different direction, but I think it is safe to say that if it ain't broke don't fix it is something of Brewers Standard Operating Procedure. I could see them trading a starter to free up money if they felt that was important.

[fondybrewfan]

Unless Ramirez gets hurt yet this year I give the Brewers a 90% chance of picking up that option. If Ramirez does want to play multiple more years I give him a 50% chance or less of picking up his option. Even if he doesn't pick up the option I think it is very likely the Brewers work out a 2 year deal with him; maybe 2/25 or so. It seems like he really likes it here and the Brewers will probably have a need for a 3rd basemen in 2015 as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd like to see them make a run at Sandoval myself or a lefty hitting 1B who's a clear upgrade.

 

"Opportunity cost" is certainly a variable in whether or not to exercise the option. The thing is, they need to decide on the option pretty quickly after the season is over. If they decline the option because they would rather go after someone like Sandoval, they need to be sure they're going to get him or they could get stuck with patchwork at 1B and 3B.

 

I think Ramirez is already someone who would benefit from a day or two per week off, so I think there is a good chance that he will not be worth the option price next year. However, if we don't exercise the option, we'd better find answers at 1B and 3B somewhere. Filling 1B has been tough for the past two years, so I doubt that Melvin could find answers at both positions.

 

One thing: Cot's has 2015 listed as "$14M mutual option ($4M buyout)" so the option, if exercised would be for $14MM, not $16MM as I thought it was and others have also mentioned.

 

Trade options are Prado at 3B and Morneau at 1B. Combined they'd make $17.75 million next year. That's less than $4 million more than Ramirez alone. Prado is owed $22 million over the next two years. He should be available for not a ton of talent in return if Brewers pick up his entire salary.

 

I think it's better than 50-50 that they keep what they have in Ramirez, but all is not lost if they don't. I would hope Melvin's explored what it would take to get other guys.

[TooLiveBrew]

I was really surprised to see just how bad the month of July has been for Aramis: .217/.250/.265/.515

 

He's quietly (I guess that just means I hadn't noticed) been pretty awful since his stellar June (1.036 OPS). We really need him to find his hitting shoes again.

[monty57]

I was really surprised to see just how bad the month of July has been for Aramis: .217/.250/.265/.515

 

He's quietly (I guess that just means I hadn't noticed) been pretty awful since his stellar June (1.036 OPS). We really need him to find his hitting shoes again.

 

The guy has had a very good career, but he's getting old. His "hot streaks" have come when he's had time to rest: The start of the season, and when he came off the DL in early June. I think he'd be best served getting a couple of days a week off, but without any valid backup options, Roenicke will not do that.

 

He's now posting a .271 avg / .319 OBP / .431 SLG / .749 OPS line this year. He probably has another good streak in him, and I'd guess he'll end up somewhere in the mid-to-upper .700's to end the season, but there is not a cure for age. I don't think people will be happy with his play next year if his option is exercised.

[brewcrewdue80]

How about 100% he'll be a Brewer in 2015. Delmonico just got tagged with a 50game suspension. What does that make our next 3b in line? Neuhas/Gatewood/Lara at the moment?

[Outlander]

How about 100% he'll be a Brewer in 2015. Delmonico just got tagged with a 50game suspension. What does that make our next 3b in line? Neuhas/Gatewood/Lara at the moment?

Rogers, but his defense needs to improve.

[reillymcshane]

Interesting what happens with A-Ram after this off season.

 

He's on pace to play 125-130 games. If he stays relatively healthy the rest of the season, and produces at his current rate, he could easily end up with 20 HR, 80 RBI and a .300 BA. His walk rate is really low, however, and his OBP is currently at .336. It's a good season - not a great one.

 

Considering the team has no one in the minors to take his place, I bet the Brewers pick up their side of the mutual option, which is for $14 million. If they don't pick up the option, they owe him $4 million. May as well pay $10 million for a good player.

 

At that point, A-Ram could accept his side of the option and get $14 million in 2015. However, he may want one more good sized contract, and decline his option. That leaves the Brewers off the hook for his $4 million buyout.

 

If so, would the Brewers tender him a qualifying offer. Last year the QO was $14.1 million. So even if it goes up to $14.5 million or so, we'd probably give him the offer. If some other team comes up and offers A-Ram stupid money, we can take the draft pick and say thanks. But you have to wonder what team would pay A-Ram crazy money (and years), especially with draft compensation tied to him.

 

Outside of the qualifying offer, I'm wondering if the team and A-Ram agree to a new contract for two years - maybe with a third year option. You could probably pay him closer to $10-12 million annually on a two year deal than $14-15 million.

 

Either way, I think A-Ram is back next year. Either at the Qualifying Offer rate, or on a new deal.

[guylanderfridancies]

I say give Aramis some random time off in September and give Jason Rogers a chance to swing the bat in miller park. JRog was the minor league player of the year last year for the brew-crew, and after added to the 40-man roster, basically had to play through the winter with like a 2-week off-season only to get sent back to AA Huntsville to start the year. He's been an absolute stick in AAA since he got bumped up. Getting him some AB's in the bigs should do great things for his confidence, as well as give Aramis some time to remain fresh.

[paul253]

How is Roger's defense at third? Is he capable of playing 3rd at the major league level? Can we expect continued improvement with more time and practice?

[FVBrewerFan]

How is Roger's defense at third? Is he capable of playing 3rd at the major league level? Can we expect continued improvement with more time and practice?

 

Haven't seen him play 3B, but reports are that he needs work. Can we expect improvement? That's impossible to know. I really thought Weeks would continue to get much better defensively, and that never happened. People never thought Segura could develop into a MLB SS, but he has.

[paul253]

I don't want to turn this into a Jason Rogers thread but now that Hunter Morris has had another lost season and pretty much removed himself as "1st basemen of the future" discussion I suppose the Brewers could always move Rogers back to 1B and let him platoon with a left handed hitter. I see no reason to bring either Mark Reynolds or Lyle Overbay back next season. That would of course mean picking up ARam's option which is probably a given anyway given that all our of third base prospects are at A ball or below.

[djoctagone]

But what if Ramirez has a monster (or even just nice) 2014 and declines his end of the mutual 2015 option, believing he could net a two-or-three year deal in free agency? Well, two things would happen. One, the Brewers are still off the hook for the $4 million buyout, and two, the Brewers could actually then consider making Ramirez a qualifying offer and thus potentially earn a draft pick. (The qualifying offer amount for 2013 was $14.1 million, it will likely approach $15M next fall, not much more than the Brewers would be willing to pay by picking up the mutual option).

the brewers are really in a great position here, and i'd be shocked if they didn't exercise their side of the mutual option. if ramirez declines his part of the mutual option, it's a no-brainer for the brewers to make a qualifying offer.

 

we shall see in the coming weeks.