(Likely?) Scenario - Aramis Ramirez will still be a Brewer in 2015, and That'll End Up a Good Thing

[Mass Haas]

Apologies if this thought had already been communicated elsewhere (and probably better) within this forum during the past year.

 

Many of you are familiar with the deal Aramis Ramirez signed with the Brewers 12/13/11:

 

-- 3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 mutual option

-- 12:$6M, 13:$10M, 14:$16M, 15: $14M mutual option ($4M buyout)

-- $6M in salary deferred in 2014

 

As was previously made known, the deferred money from 2014 is due in two $3 million payments on Dec. 15 in 2017 and 2018. If the 2015 buyout money is paid, it would be owed in two $2 million payments on Dec. 15 in 2015 and 2016.

 

Ramirez will turn 36 in June of 2014, and obviously 37 in June of 2015.

 

***

 

So let's look at things a bit. Right away, the scenarios mentioned below rely on Ramirez remaining relatively healthy in 2014 with a solid indication he would enter 2015 healthy as well. The Brewers' next real third base prospect, Nicky Delmonico, is two+ full years away from a chance at regular big league time.

 

In a positive 2014, Ramirez plays 140 games, perhaps a few of those at DH in interleague, and provides Ryan Braun with the cleanup protection approaching Ramirez' career .846 OPS (a number Ramirez only failed to reach twice in the last ten seasons, 2010 and last year).

 

Now if the Brewers pick up their end of the mutual $14 million 2015 option next fall, then regardless of what Ramirez decides on his end, there is no $4 million buyout. So the Brewers would be committing an additional $10 million only to what they already have budgeted, they're just moving up the payment schedule on the buyout money as described above.

 

But what if Ramirez has a monster (or even just nice) 2014 and declines his end of the mutual 2015 option, believing he could net a two-or-three year deal in free agency? Well, two things would happen. One, the Brewers are still off the hook for the $4 million buyout, and two, the Brewers could actually then consider making Ramirez a qualifying offer and thus potentially earn a draft pick. (The qualifying offer amount for 2013 was $14.1 miillion, it will likely approach $15M next fall, not much more than the Brewers would be willing to pay by picking up the mutual option).

 

If both parties accepted the mutual option, in 2015 the Brewers would have a valuable (albeit 36-year-old-turning-37-year-old) asset. If they manage to contend, the Brewers could hold on to Ramirez for all of 2015 or, if out of contention, move him at the 2015 deadline for prospects.

 

To review, if Aramis Ramirez has reasonable health this coming season and through the first half of 2015, the Brewers would benefit in some shape or form by:

 

- Enjoying close-to-usual Ramirez production in 2014

- Not having to pay the $4M buyout on his mutual 2015 option

- Potentially netting an (end of) first round compensation 2015 draft pick

- Bringing back a productive player for 2015 that can be used to either help contend or net needed prospects at midseason

 

Stay healthy, Aramis, and it's really a pretty attractive situation for the Brewers no matter the outcome.

 

And if 2014 is injury-filled, oh well...darn.

[SoupTown]

I agree. My opinion has always been ARam will be here the next two years. And I think that is a plus. It becomes curious to guess who will play 3rd in 2016

[Outlander]

I don't think it is a likely scenario Ramirez is with the Brewers in 2015 but agree that the option isn't that bad especially considering the cost of the buyout and that it would generate nothing in return. Once the Brewers are off the hook though I would not give the qualifying offer.

[BallFour]

I don't think it is a likely scenario Ramirez is with the Brewers in 2015 but agree that the option isn't that bad especially considering the cost of the buyout and that it would generate nothing in return. Once the Brewers are off the hook though I would not give the qualifying offer.

 

I think it would be dumb not to offer a qualifying offer if this scenario played out, that is if he turns down the mutual for $14 Million and the qualifying is for a projected $15 Million. Obviously if he declines the option and wants a multi-year deal he won't sign the tender for an extra million. An interesting scenario to say the least. Even if it does play out I don't know what team gives up a draft pick to sign a 37 year old.

[Outlander]

Even if it does play out I don't know what team gives up a draft pick to sign a 37 year old.

Exactly, which is why they should not go with the qualifying offer.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's premature to speculate until he shows he's healthy enough to make 550 or so plate appearances and shows he's still a productive hitter. Both are pretty big ifs at this point and one reason bringing in a guy like Michael Young makes some sense.

 

He could be a Brewer in 2015, but I wouldn't put money on it. As for who plays there in 2015, they'll likely have to look outside the organization. Chase Headley?

[fondybrewfan]

If you are going to pay him $14 Million anyways you might as well make the qualifying offer at $15 Million. Maybe you get lucky and someone like NYY or LAD have giant hole to file at 3rd and need him. If no one wants him then you have him for another year at $15 Million.

 

By offering to pay the extra $1 Million you are guaranteeing yourself either another year of a 3rd basemen coming off a good year or a 1st round pick. Seems like a good situation to be in.

[torts]

It's premature to speculate until he shows he's healthy enough to make 550 or so plate appearances and shows he's still a productive hitter. Both are pretty big ifs at this point and one reason bringing in a guy like Michael Young makes some sense.

 

He could be a Brewer in 2015, but I wouldn't put money on it. As for who plays there in 2015, they'll likely have to look outside the organization. Chase Headley?

 

the brewers are more likely to keep Aram than sign chase headley in 2015.

[Outlander]

If you are going to pay him $14 Million anyways you might as well make the qualifying offer at $15 Million. Maybe you get lucky and someone like NYY or LAD have giant hole to file at 3rd and need him. If no one wants him then you have him for another year at $15 Million.

 

By offering to pay the extra $1 Million you are guaranteeing yourself either another year of a 3rd basemen coming off a good year or a 1st round pick. Seems like a good situation to be in.

Well if you exercise the option you are willing to pay him an extra $10 million that you don't have to, if you give him the qualifying offer you are willing to pay him $15 million that you don't have to, which is fairly significant. Maybe let him know if he also declines the option they will not do the qualifying offer.

[MNBrew]

I like this idea of a healthy Ramirez being a Brewer beyond this year and I grow tired of folks selling Ramirez short, saying he's injury-prone, which is not the case any more than many, many players.

 

Ramirez has hardly been injury-plagued in his career, only missing significant time last year and 2009. And after Ramirez returned to the lineup and got his game going, he was pretty well on-track with his usual production rate. People need to remember Ramirez is a far superior player to Rickie Weeks and has only two seasons in the past 13 where he's played under 100 games (still playing in over half the season's games in both cases).

 

If there's no capable replacement on the way and Ramirez is still healthy and productive, I have no problem paying him $14-$15M in 2015, especially if the alternative is the equivalent of the pre-Segura SS situation of 2012.

[fleehaw]

If you are going to pay him $14 Million anyways you might as well make the qualifying offer at $15 Million. Maybe you get lucky and someone like NYY or LAD have giant hole to file at 3rd and need him. If no one wants him then you have him for another year at $15 Million.

 

By offering to pay the extra $1 Million you are guaranteeing yourself either another year of a 3rd basemen coming off a good year or a 1st round pick. Seems like a good situation to be in.

Well if you exercise the option you are willing to pay him an extra $10 million that you don't have to, if you give him the qualifying offer you are willing to pay him $15 million that you don't have to, which is fairly significant. Maybe let him know if he also declines the option they will not do the qualifying offer.

 

Right, the difference to Ramirez is only $1M to mutually accept his option versus accepting a potential qualifying offer.

 

For the Brewers, the difference is a minimum of $5M (mutually accept and QO).

[LouisEly]

If A-Ram declines the 2015 option it means that he either thinks that he can get more money/longer deal elsewhere or he doesn't think the Brewers will contend and he wants to play for a contender. If he declines a one-year $14M offer he will very likely decline a one-year QO tender of ~$15M; it's very unlikely that $1M is going to change his decision; he will also know that if he declines a QO that will reduce his marketability, which will factor in his decision to exercise the 2015 option.

 

The Brewers decision is pretty simple - is he healthy enough/playing well enough to warrant paying him $14/$15M in 2015 or pay him $4M to leave. Even with a bad knee he still managed a .831 OPS, which ranked 6th among the 30 3B who had at least 350 PA's last season and was highest in the NL Central (Alvarez was next at .770, Freese and Frazier were over .100 lower). He still has trade value, especially with only a max of 2 years left on his contract.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but if the Brewers choose to exercise his 2015 option but Ramirez declines it (it is a mutual option), the Brewers don't have to pay the $4M buyout.

[fondybrewfan]

This all assumes that the Brewers exercise tha option and that would only realistically happen if Ramirez is both healthy and productive in 2014. If that truly happens paying $14 Million for Ramirez (Assuming we don't have a 3rd basemen in waiting) seems perfectly acceptable to me. If he sucks you pay the buyout and be done with it. The point is that if his 2014 season warrants the option be exercised you might as well offer the qualifying offer for $15 Million if he declines. If he accepts you have a $14 Million player coming off a good year.

 

Now I am not sure how good he needs to be in 2014 to warrant the option be exercised; but he probably better play in atleast 130 games or so. That means maybe one 15 day DL stint tops.

[monty57]

If the scenario plays out as Mass Haas laid it out in the opening post: Ramirez is fully healthy the full season and posts a .850+ OPS while playing good defense at 3B, while their remains no viable alternative 3B for the Brewers in 2015, then there would be a case for exercising the option. Those are a lot of big "ifs."

 

But the variables don't only lie on Ramirez. There is a whole team around him, and what happens there will also factor in. First, there are our top two pitchers, Gallardo and Lohse. Gallardo had a lot of issues last season, and while I hope he regains his form, it's far from certain. Meanwhile, Lohse is no spring chicken, and could easily fall from being a #2/3 to a #4/5. Then there are a whole lot of guys who will play prominent roles on the 2014 team who were not very highly regarded as prospects.

 

If everything comes together, all these players perform well, and Ramirez does what was listed in the first paragraph, then it may make sense to sign him, as we will be "going for it" in 2015. However, if Gallardo and Lohse falter, leaving our starting pitching a mess, and/or the young guys don't perform up to some inflated expectations, what then? Is it worth exercising the option on Ramirez if we don't look to have a good team? In that scenario, I think the better option would be to either let him walk and save $10MM, exercise the option and trade him away, or trade him at this year's deadline and let some other team make the decision on the option next offseason.

 

We'll see how things play out. As of right now, I think the odds are not in favor of him being a Brewer in 2015, but Mass is correct that it is still a possibility. Whatever the case, the Brewers will be better off if he is healthy and productive in 2014, so I'll just hope for that and let the cards fall as they will from there.

[endaround]

The marginal cost of Ramirez is $10 million. Currently the FA price of a win is about $6 million dollars. Meaning that Ramirez's partial season last year was worth about $10 million. He will have to fall of a cliff for him not to be worth picking up the option. It will be near impossible to find a better use of the money.

[logan82]

I like this idea of a healthy Ramirez being a Brewer beyond this year and I grow tired of folks selling Ramirez short, saying he's injury-prone, which is not the case any more than many, many players.

He isn't any more injury prone but he is old and has had knee problems the last couple years. Like many many old players, that shouldn't be expected to get better.

[MNBrew]

I like this idea of a healthy Ramirez being a Brewer beyond this year and I grow tired of folks selling Ramirez short, saying he's injury-prone, which is not the case any more than many, many players.

He isn't any more injury prone but he is old and has had knee problems the last couple years. Like many many old players, that shouldn't be expected to get better.

He sprained a knee pretty badly in spring training and tried to play through it as soon as it got to a point where he could -- NOT waiting for it to fully heal. Then he was finally mostly healthy and playing well but tweaked it again in the Gomez-Maholm-McCann fiasco right before season's end. "Knee problems" sounds like something more chronic.

 

IIRC, he didn't have knee problems in 2012, so that was only a one year issue.

 

In 2013 he was a total stud offensively and defensively and at least the offense was pretty much in line with his career norms, nothing out of the ordinary for him.

[logan82]

Ramirez could barely run the bases at one point in 2012.

[Mass Haas]

We've been discussing in this thread the possibility, or even likelihood if healthy, of the Brewers picking up their half of Aramis Ramirez' $14 million mutual option for 2015. Feel free to scroll back to the initial post if you're coming here via Twitter and wish to review.

 

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Article here, translation below, please excuse the translation grammar --

 

12/30/2013 - SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic . ( AP ) - . Third baseman Aramis Ramirez has no plans to retire from baseball and his plan is to play a few more seasons before departing.

 

"We do not know, I would play one or two more years but my body will tell how long I can play ," Ramirez said in an interview for the radio program Major in Sports.

 

Ramirez, 35, last season was limited to just 92 games with the Brewers , batting .283 with 12 homers and 49 RBIs , 18 doubles and 43 runs scored. Still under contract for next season with Milwaukee.

 

To hander , injuries hampered his production during 2013. " The game is hard healthy , when they 're not complicated . Injuries are part of the game . You have to work hard and try to minimize them , "he said .

 

In 16 major league seasons , Ramirez has accumulated 354 home runs, 1,276 RBIs with 441 doubles and 2,045 hits.

 

Third baseman says he does not think the Hall of Fame , but admits that some have mentioned the possibility .

 

" Personally I do not think numbers Cooperstown . But I have colleagues who tell me about Ron Santo and the ability to get to Cooperstown . My goal is not numbers but think about winning a championship ring , "he said .

 

Ramirez did not play in the Dominican Winter League for 10 years , but does not rule before leaving the game to wear the uniform of the Tigres del Licey again.

 

" I never rule anything ( play again winter ) . I have two children who want to see me play with Licey . Before I retire I 'll play again with the Licey "he said.

[djoctagone]

i just wanted to bump this thread because i'm optimistic for a healthy and productive ramirez for 2014. it's great insight on his future with the brewers.

[djoctagone]

ramirez wants to play beyond this season, so it's worth revisiting this thread.

[monty57]

About 2/3 of the way through the season, he has a .284/.333/.455/.788 line while playing in around 75% of the team's games.

 

His career OPS is .844, and his last three seasons are:

 

2011 .871 OPS

2012 .901 OPS

2013 .831 OPS

 

He's a guy who for much of his career sat in the mid-.800's to low .900's OPS. I think those days are past, and while he's still an MLB player, he's probably more a high .700's OPS guy who is best served getting some days off. That decline will likely continue as the years tick by.

 

Our problem is that we don't have another 3B. The question this offseason will be whether it's worth it to pay a lot of money to see if Ramirez still has a full season of decent baseball in him. We still have 60 or so games to judge him by this season, and then we'll see how the offseason goes.

[fondybrewfan]

Jason Rogers has been pretty solid at AAA but I am not even going to pretend to think he can put up numbers anywhere near Ramirez.

[trwi7]

I'll gladly take Ramirez back next year, just not at $16 million. If we give him the $4 million buyout and get him for $8-10 million, I'd be okay with that.

[logan82]

I would prefer not to have him back next year because of the previous concerns I had earlier in the thread(injury). I don't see a better option though. I doubt he would sign with us again if we bought him out. I think he would get a couple years somewhere. A .784 OPS makes him one of the best hitting 3B in the NL so far this year.