Why Scooter should NOT be platooned

[TooLiveBrew]

Btw Scooter's line vs LH Starters last season: .296/.321/.407 .728OPS

28 plate appearances. Let me repeat. 28.

 

One fewer hit would be a .260-ish AVG & a sub-.300 OBP. This is the definition of a sample so small that it is useless.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=gennesc01&year=2013&t=b

[Baldkin]

By your logic, it would make sense to let a LOOGY reliever pitch as much against righthanded batters as lefties, even though righthanded hitters crush that guy because that alone won't cause a team to lose a bunch more games.

 

No not even close in my logic. My logic in your ideal would be to allow a LOOGY to pitch vs Righties if it were Lefty,Righty,Lefty, Lefty in a batting lineup. Or, Lefty, Lefty, Righty, Lefty.

 

If you're batting Scooter 8th ahead of a Pitcher few things come to mind.

I did the Pitchers batting numbers last season. .141BA and a .151OB with another .129 of PAs finishing in sacrifices.

We know Scooter isn't a guy to rely on beyond 10HRs in a season. And based on his Minors numbers in 550PAs avg he'll have roughly 36 XBH of 152hits. Let's assume the majority of them come vs RHP. Even at Scooter .270/.330 Batting line, it comes to roughly 22% of his season avg. OB him being on 1b ahead of the pitcher. With 3% being on 3b or a HR. and 5% being standing on 2b. Requiring the Pitcher to have a hit to score him if Scooter hadn't already done so with a HR.

 

How often do you figure Gennett comes to the plate with 0outs batting 8th? The most ideal situation for him to get on base, maybe see the Pitcher move him in to scoring position and leadoff have a chance to score him?

 

If it's 1out or 2outs based on Gennett's .330OB projection 67% of the time the pitcher comes up with 2outs or Scooter ends the inning.

 

So yeah, I'm of belief that you can hide Gennett in the 8 spot vs LHP not having to platoon him. That it isn't necessary for us to keep Rickie on the team just to be Scooter's Platoon partner. What is the average number of Left Handed SPs we see vs. Right Handed starting Pitchers? Maybe 20-24%? So now we're looking around 32-38Games to honestly be concerned about this? And again with 3PAs in those games?

So pretty much 96-114PAs on the season as a LH Bat batting 8th vs a LH SP?

 

I just don't see the overall impact Scooter will have playing vs LH Starters over playing Rickie.

Rickie's career line vs LH Starter: .246/.364/.431

2013: .195/.300/.327 .627OPS

2012: .224/.353/.382 .735OPS

 

I mean please explain to me the number of Wins/Losses Scooter's Bat vs. Rickie's bat will amount to on the season?

 

Btw Scooter's line vs LH Starters last season: .296/.321/.407 .728OPS

 

At 11mil vs. 525k in payroll Just move Rickie already to make space on the Roster for some kind of other position.

 

I'm trying to fathom the number of runs scored Rickie may provide over Scooter in the LH Starting games on the season....Like 3 more runs? Maybe 6runs? Maybe -1run?

And between the two in the field my guess is Rickie loses 1-3 of those runs. So to me we're talking about 3 runs maybe on the season Rickie may create more over Scooter. So maybe the difference all season long to go 83-78 or 84-77?

To me it's that insignificant.

 

 

-- They aren't moving Rickie anywhere, without paying most of his salary. The 11 million is going to be paid.

 

-- Gennett is NOT good in the field either. I know, he's a gritty battler, so he must be, but every coach and the numbers and his noodle arm suggest otherwise.

 

-- Your numbers are off on the number of LH starters, over the past 5 seasons, the Brewers have faced an average of 44 LH starters each season, it fluxuates a lot, and I am too lazy to look up the number of LHP in the division this year.

4) You're using numbers from the games with a LH starting pitcher, not their stats vs LH pitchers, so Gennett's numbers are amazingly inflated, he had a .329 OPS against LHP last year. He only started 6 games in which there was a LH starting pitcher and somehow got 28 PA's in games where there was a LH starter. Yeah, he pinch hit against righties, a lot.

 

In 122 PA's last year, Weeks put up 0.3 rAA (runs Above Average, from Fangraphs, 10 rAA = 1 Win).

In a paltry 39 PA's last year, Gennett managed to put up -5.2.

 

In 40 PA's against LHP, Scooter managed to lose over half a win over Weeks last season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ah, yes, let's include all, LHP right? Because in the 7th inning or later PAs, if Scooter is being started, in a close game and a LHP is brought in...Wouldn't a manager simply PINCH HIT Scooter? If the game is 3runs or more then I'd imagine he stays in.

 

See, my point really isn't the numbers Scooter may post vs LHP it's the numbers RICKIE posts vs LHP. last two seasons worth of PAs are under .735OPS against Starters. What about that makes one think he is a great Platoon partner.

 

Now if it were anything like Scooter's .946OPS vs RHP then of course it makes sense. If you're going to Platoon a guy at least have it be with someone who wil OPS over .800 no? vs the opposite handed pitcher?

 

The idea of Platooning someone is because while being dominated by the same sides pitcher that batter dominates the opposite sided pitcher. Rickie doesn't do that. When I read about Platooning someone it is oh, he has .850+OPS vs. the .660OPS. And you have the platoon partner who is just that .850+OPS on the side the guy who hits .660 OPS but a .660OPS on the side he has an .850+ OPS.

 

Rickie last two seasons. .735 or LESS OPS vs LH Starters. He isn't providing the prototypical numbers to platoon him with Scooter.

Rickie should strictly face LH RPs later in the game. Or, I'd include him vs LH Starters that are prone to giving up HRs to RHB.

[endaround]

Ah, yes, let's include all, LHP right? Because in the 7th inning or later PAs, if Scooter is being started, in a close game and a LHP is brought in...Wouldn't a manager simply PINCH HIT Scooter? If the game is 3runs or more then I'd imagine he stays in.

 

See, my point really isn't the numbers Scooter may post vs LHP it's the numbers RICKIE posts vs LHP. last two seasons worth of PAs are under .735OPS against Starters. What about that makes one think he is a great Platoon partner.

 

Now if it were anything like Scooter's .946OPS vs RHP then of course it makes sense. If you're going to Platoon a guy at least have it be with someone who wil OPS over .800 no? vs the opposite handed pitcher?

 

The idea of Platooning someone is because while being dominated by the same sides pitcher that batter dominates the opposite sided pitcher. Rickie doesn't do that. When I read about Platooning someone it is oh, he has .850+OPS vs. the .660OPS. And you have the platoon partner who is just that .850+OPS on the side the guy who hits .660 OPS but a .660OPS on the side he has an .850+ OPS.

 

Rickie last two seasons. .735 or LESS OPS vs LH Starters. He isn't providing the prototypical numbers to platoon him with Scooter.

Rickie should strictly face LH RPs later in the game. Or, I'd include him vs LH Starters that are prone to giving up HRs to RHB.

 

The idea behind platooning is that left handed hitters have difficulty in facing left handed pitchers such that even a below average right handed hitter would be an improvement. Since Gennett is likely to be a 700 OPS vs RHers and a 550 OPS versus LHers, Weeks 735 OPS would make him the offensive side of the platoon.

[danzig6767]

By your logic, it would make sense to let a LOOGY reliever pitch as much against righthanded batters as lefties, even though righthanded hitters crush that guy because that alone won't cause a team to lose a bunch more games.

 

So yeah, I'm of belief that you can hide Gennett in the 8 spot vs LHP not having to platoon him. That it isn't necessary for us to keep Rickie on the team just to be Scooter's Platoon partner.

 

1. Why go out of your way to "hide" a hitter from pitchers who throw lefthanded when there is a clearly better solution sitting right there on the bench? Lots of teams do this with certain players. I just can't grasp your thinking here, it sounds like something Ned Yost would try rationalizing away because it made no sense to everyone else.

 

2. The Brewers aren't going to keep Weeks on the roster simply to have a platoon partner for Gennett. They are going to keep Rickie because he makes over 10 million dollars next year and they hope he rebounds with better production to either help the team and/or potentially make him attractive enough to be traded at the deadline. For as bad as he was last year, only a season prior he carried a .387 OBP vs lefties. That wouldn't need to be hidden.

 

If the team was using an extra roster spot to bring in another righthanded secondbaseman just to platoon with Gennett, then i might be more on your side. That isn't the case though. Weeks was/is going to be on the the roster regardless of if Roenicke chooses to use a platoon at secondbase. So then it just comes down to only two situations. Roenicke can either start Scooter vs lefthanders and leave Weeks on the bench even though Rickie gives the team better odds of scoring more runs in those given games or he can put Weeks in the lineup and increase the odds of scoring more runs. Watching Roenicke though, it wouldn't surprise me if he chose the route of playing the inferior option, even if lefties end up dominating Gennett.

[brewcrewdue80]

Danzig, I know Rickie will likely start 90% of the games vs LH Starters. And sure he ought to put up better numbers than Scooter. What I'm advocating is that overall those numbers aren't going to be all that great for okay 40-45 Games to leave Rickie on the roster paying him 11mil next season. You're proposal that there's "Clearly a better solution sitting on the bench" is making my point. Is Rickie's .735 or worse OPS clearly a better solution?

Everyone keeps bringing up the overall numbers vs. all Lefties in arguing against me. A platoon isn't about every AB it's about playing LHP vs RHB and RHP vs LHB to start the game. When the RP comes in though? Few things come to mind. 1. LOOGY's are meant to get leftys out. But, the reason they are LOOGYs is because they are terrible at getting righties out(typically) 2. LH RPs are RPs because their stuff isn't good enough to get RHB out over multiple innings. 3. LH RPs are RPs because they are wild. All this is stuff that works in Rickie's favor and not Gennett's.

And a normal manager would Pinch Hit in these circumstances. Rickie's OPS vs LH RPs is better than vs Starters. Gennetts OPS vs RPs is worse than vs a starter. That is where I'm seeing less an impact than is being argued against my opinion. The splits vs Starters isn't justifying a platoon on Rickie's side. It does when it is against a relief pitcher meaning pinch hit situations.

 

What Milwaukee needs to do is pay a team 7-9mil to take Rickie off our hands and stick with Gennett. There isn't a need to Platoon Gennett with Rickie at 11mil on the payroll. When, you can open a roster spot for I don't know another OF, Pitcher, 1b/3b option. While saving your team 2-4million.

 

It's just been said already, you have a likely 1b only Platoon and likely you may platoon 1 in the OF. We're carrying Gennett/Weeks who only fit 2b and have no other usefullness beyond Pinch hitting.

[gregmag]

Man, I hope Scooter can hit RHPs like a MLB starter. Because otherwise this argument is going to look awfully silly in six months.

 

I'm not being snarky. I often point out that we have to allow for the possibility that young players can develop, and Scooter took great advantage of his opportunity last year. It just seems odd to me that some folks here are so high on him that they're happy to let him go against lefties -- which, even in his magical and rather surprising run last year, he did horribly. If he regresses to anywhere near his overall AA/AAA performance, it could get ugly.

 

Part of this discussion, too, is a tangle of what should happen and what probably will happen. I don't think the Brewers are going to contend, and they might have something in Scooter (at least against RHP), so I'm fine with him starting out as the strong side of a platoon. But even if I wasn't fine with it, it's going to happen; that's pretty clear. I think some folks here are saying the Brewers should play Weeks as the weak side of the platoon to get something out of him. I tend to agree with that. But again, whether it's a good idea or not, it's probably just going to happen anyway.

 

I think Weeks very well may outhit Scooter overall. I hope that doesn't happen, because I'd rather see the young, cheap guy continue to grow. But I suspect it's a more realistic possibility than a lot of people believe. Anyway, we'll see.

[SoupTown]

Scooter played because of injuries. Weeks is no longer injured. Weeks will be the starter for at least two months. I bet Scooter will start the year in AAA

 

The Brewers have quite a history of simply saying: if you make millions you start until we cut you. Similarly: if you are old and grizzled we play you over young no matter even if old performs bad and worse than young

 

It is just a simple fact of how management views roster and playing time

 

It burns me how every year the cards just bring up 1 to 3 players and let them play. Here we bring you up only if grizzled is hurt and millions is cut. Then we complain and cry how bad (before they play) our youngsters are

 

Scooter was crucified here before he hit a MLB ball last year. 90% of pundits here said he had no chance to succeed. At least I said: he is only 23. Maybe he will grow to average at league min

 

Now we have the same pundits here 'proving' Weeks is no good and Scooter is the man

[endaround]

Scooter played because of injuries. Weeks is no longer injured. Weeks will be the starter for at least two months. I bet Scooter will start the year in AAA

 

The Brewers have quite a history of simply saying: if you make millions you start until we cut you. Similarly: if you are old and grizzled we play you over young no matter even if old performs bad and worse than young

 

It is just a simple fact of how management views roster and playing time

 

It burns me how every year the cards just bring up 1 to 3 players and let them play. Here we bring you up only if grizzled is hurt and millions is cut. Then we complain and cry how bad (before they play) our youngsters are

 

Scooter was crucified here before he hit a MLB ball last year. 90% of pundits here said he had no chance to succeed. At least I said: he is only 23. Maybe he will grow to average at league min

 

Now we have the same pundits here 'proving' Weeks is no good and Scooter is the man

 

Of course in the real world the Brewers just opened up a spot for Khris Davis by trading a grizzled vet and got a young player back they want to have put in the rotation.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I still think the main point here is that Rickie is a known quantity. Scooter is not. Perhaps one can infer that SG will regress or that he's a strong platoon candidate. I don't think that's an unreasonable position.

 

For me, though, it's about the idea that Scooter still might get better. He's 23. I think it's more likely that he improves his left-handed splits enough to be decent than that Rickie starts to hit LHP like he did in 2010 (1.025 OPS).

 

Like Soup above, I don't expect Gennett to be an all-star. I do think he can be more consistent than Weeks, which means I'm in favor of sacrificing some short term positional value in favor of his long term development.

[fleehaw]

And a normal manager would Pinch Hit in these circumstances. Rickie's OPS vs LH RPs is better than vs Starters. Gennetts OPS vs RPs is worse than vs a starter. That is where I'm seeing less an impact than is being argued against my opinion. The splits vs Starters isn't justifying a platoon on Rickie's side. It does when it is against a relief pitcher meaning pinch hit situations.

 

It's just been said already, you have a likely 1b only Platoon and likely you may platoon 1 in the OF. We're carrying Gennett/Weeks who only fit 2b and have no other usefullness beyond Pinch hitting.

 

So, what you are really saying is Weeks is more clutch than Gennett.

 

Aside from Gennett's success in 40 ABs vs. LHP last year, are years in the minors in which he was far less successful vs. LHP (both starters & relievers). Weeks over his career has been far more successful vs. LHP (both starters & relievers) than Gennett. That is what people are saying. If Weeks and Gennett are on the roster come opening day (and that's a point for debate), then it would be more productive to have Weeks start at 2B vs. LHP.

[Thurston Fluff]

Aside from Gennett's success in 40 ABs vs. LHP last year, are years in the minors in which he was far less successful vs. LHP (both starters & relievers). Weeks over his career has been far more successful vs. LHP (both starters & relievers) than Gennett. That is what people are saying. If Weeks and Gennett are on the roster come opening day (and that's a point for debate), then it would be more productive to have Weeks start at 2B vs. LHP.

 

Don't you have to take into account age so some extent when judging what someone might do going forward? Weeks has a history of being really bad coming off injuries as well. Gennett, on the other hand, is likely to get better as he adjusts to the majors and hits his prime years.

 

-- They aren't moving Rickie anywhere, without paying most of his salary. The 11 million is going to be paid.

 

If they don't want him on the roster and are on the hook for the salary anyway why not pay most of his salary? If they get a bag of balls and have to pay 10.5 million of his contract they will still save 1/2 a million. Even if they had to pay the entire salary they would still get the proverbial bag of balls. I think if he shows he is healthy in spring there will be some team willing to take a shot on him at the right price.

[trwi7]

If they get a bag of balls and have to pay 10.5 million of his contract they will still save 1/2 a million.

 

Since Weeks would be on the roster, they would have to pay a replacement a minimum of $500K meaning there are no savings.

[danzig6767]

 

What Milwaukee needs to do is pay a team 7-9mil to take Rickie off our hands and stick with Gennett. There isn't a need to Platoon Gennett with Rickie at 11mil on the payroll. When, you can open a roster spot for I don't know another OF, Pitcher, 1b/3b option. While saving your team 2-4million.

 

Hey, if the Brewers end up trading Weeks before the season starts, then play Gennett everyday. If that doesn't happen though, i'd platoon them. You and others wouldn't. We clearly don't agree on that and i don't see opinions being changed, so a dead end has been reached.

 

FWIW, my view on this isn't just about maximizing the available talent on a roster. Many will disagree with me on this, but i do think it can benefit some young players/rookies to not put them in positions to potentially fail early in their MLB careers. Scooter killed righthanded pitchers after being called up last year, but odds are very high that he won't hit them that well this season. So lets say hypothetically that Weeks was traded before the season and Gennett is given the everyday job. He not only gets dominated by lefties, he doesn't hit righthanders nearly as good as last year. His confidence gets shaken, but now there is nobody else credible on the roster to give him a week or two off to clear his head or at least hit vs lefties.

 

There is a reason that a lot of teams try easing in some rookies into roles that maximize their chances to succeed, be it a pitcher or position player, especially among guys who aren't a can't miss prospect. Having Weeks on the roster could not only give better production vs lefties, it could allow Roenicke to avoid having to play Scooter vs say a stretch of good lefthanders who could easily end up dominating him and it getting in his head, especially if he's also in a rut vs righthanded pitchers.

 

On the flip side, if the team looks like it's going nowhere after a few months and in at bats vs lefties Scooter isn't looking totally overmatched, then he could be given the everyday job and Weeks either released or traded away with us paying nearly the vast majority of the money owed to him so as to find a taker if he wasn't playing well.

[fondybrewfan]

I am a little fearful of platooning multiple positions at the same time. Your bench becomes pretty limited if you are going with a strict LH/RH platoon at 2 or 3 positions. You have a backup catcher who very rarely will pinch hit and then you may have 3 guys that all hit from the same side of the plate. Someone whether it be 1B, 2B, or LF will have to establish themselves as every day hitters so DM and RR have some flexilibility in filling out there bench spots. 2B seems like the safest bet to assume a platoon, maybe even if it is just soft. I think Davis will be given every opportunity to start every day and only god knows whats going to happen at 1st base.

 

Even if you want platoons they should be on a very soft basis; Davis and Gennet should have 5 out of every 7 games to start the year. If they prove they can't handle it then maybe you make the platoon strictly LH/RH or give Rickie some games against right handers.

 

If Rickie is on the roster he is almost surely going to be given an opportunity to play though; even if Gennet is declared the starter I have a hard time believing Rickie won't see the field 2 or 3 times a week. He also would likely serve as DH in the AL parks.

[danzig6767]

Fondy, i've heard nothing about Davis being platooned and nor should he be.

 

The only positions where a potential platoon seems logical is first and secondbase.

[brewcrewdue80]

The truth with Rickie is this. He is payed 11mil this year. He blows, there's zero value to him right now. He succeeds guess what? There's zero chance DM trades him since he's helping the team. If he is bad again...Mr. .155 BA for 2+months, he is untradeable again and Brewers are on the hook for 11mil for him this year regardless.

 

I'm just looking to see him traded with that whole "Change of Scenery" upside because he's very overpaid at 11mil. and certainly hasn't shown signs that he can avoid being a complete Black Hole sucking wins from this team for consecutive months at a time. The K's, more Ground Outs, and less Power, with poor defense. It's demoralizing.

 

Come Opening Day and Weeks is on the Brewers Roster, I understand the Platoon situation with Scooter and I know it makes sense. It just doesn't make sense to pay someone 11mil to be platooned and start less than 1/3rd the games since his platoon bat is from the RH side.

 

The only thing I recall when thinking about Scooter as a prospect was that he has a potentially Plus Hit Tool. That's why I'm for him playing 2b alone if we can get rid of Weeks. If the guy is a hitter/can flat out hit in the long run, he's going to improve over time. Look at Lucroy or Braun or Aoki. Guys that are capable of hitting, they don't have ridiculous bad months like Weeks did. A bad month is going .260BA. They just rack up .280-.310 months otherwise. I enjoy guys who can hit like that. Having multiples are even better. Vs. the thought that man, on a bad day with a good pitcher on the mound, this could be a No-hitter game. Scooter just seems like he can be the type that will break up a no-hitter should he evolve with being a plus hitter.

Honestly, Scooter makes me think of the type of player the Cardinals have that kill Milwaukee. Seeing eye singles, tough outs that kind of ilk. Hating the Cardinals, it nice to think of giving them a taste of what we endure back.

[reillymcshane]

If Scooter looks half-way decent in camp (and isn't hurt), I think the Brewers will get rid of Rickie in spring training. I don't think they have any intention of keeping both Rickie and Scooter.

 

The club will hope Rickie looks decent in camp. They'll hope someone will want him due to injury or whatever. If so, they will trade him for nothing but a million or two dollars in salary relief (because that's the most we're going to get for a guy coming off major surgery and two bad seasons and is a bad defender).

 

The team doesn't want Rickie for a couple of reasons.

 

1. Scooter and Weeks are strictly 2B. If either of the guys could play some other positions, you might have a platoon. But locking in two guys into 2B handicaps the team's roster flexibility.

2. Rickie's 2015 option of $11.5 million vests if he gets 400 plate appearances. The club wants no part of that. Rickie might outhit Scooter next year, but unless he returns to his 2010 form, he's not worth $11.5 million.

 

If Rickie doesn't draw any suitors, the team will cut Weeks before the end of camp. They'll use Bianchi (or someone like him) to get 20-30 starts at 2B against lefties. Otherwise, Scooter will be the man.

[Daubs]

2. Rickie's 2015 option of $11.5 million vests if he gets 400 plate appearances. The club wants no part of that. Rickie might outhit Scooter next year, but unless he returns to his 2010 form, he's not worth $11.5 million.

 

You're looking at the $1 million buyout vesting if he gets 400 plate appearances.

 

The 11.5 million would vest if he accumulates 600 PAs and is healthy at the end of 2014.

[reillymcshane]

2. Rickie's 2015 option of $11.5 million vests if he gets 400 plate appearances. The club wants no part of that. Rickie might outhit Scooter next year, but unless he returns to his 2010 form, he's not worth $11.5 million.

 

You're looking at the $1 million buyout vesting if he gets 400 plate appearances.

 

The 11.5 million would vest if he accumulates 600 PAs and is healthy at the end of 2014.

 

Thank you for the clarification. Appreciate it.

[djoctagone]

scooter gennett is expected to start against left handed pitchers in 2015.

[DHonks]

Makes sense. I've seen him have some good at bats and hard hit balls off of lefties this week

[brewmann04]

I think Scotter needs to at least get two months playing against Lefties.

[brewmann04]

I think Scotter needs to at least get two months playing against Lefties.

[brewmann04]

I think Scotter needs to at least get two months playing against Lefties.