The Potential Carlos Gomez Trade Package

[paul253]

We do? Nothing against Logan Schafer, but he has career 5th outfielder written all over him, not starting center fielder.

 

On top of Schafer we also have Braun, Gindl, and Davis. None of them are natural centerfielders but Gindl could probably handle it with Schafer as a late inning defensive replacement.

 

Exactly. You aren't trading Gomez unless there were trades or will be more trades of anyone making money the next two years for the Brewers

This makes no sense to me. The Brewers, even with moving Gomez, would presumably have a good enough offense to compete. They'd still have Braun, Ramirez, Segura, and Lucroy and could get significant contributions from Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett. Plus there'd probably be an upgrade at first base. The whole point of moving Gomez would be to improve the rotation. So if you have a decent offense with an improved rotation the team should be better than they were last year. The key would to be able to obtain other younger guys that can help out. Getting a young third basemen would be great. Maybe that would be something that can be addressed in next years draft.

 

As for possible deals. How about:

 

a) Gomez for Walker straight up.

b) Gomez, Ramirez, and cash for Paxton, Seagar and Carter Capps.

[Warning Track Power]

As for possible deals. How about:

 

a) Gomez for Walker straight up.

b) Gomez, Ramirez, and cash for Paxton, Seagar and Carter Capps.

 

If we did option A and:

 

1. Gallardo returns to form and is signed long term

2. Peralta continue to develop into a #2/3

3. Walker is the #1 he is projected to be

 

The Brewers would have a really nice top of the rotation for the next 5 years, while still putting out a relatively solid offensive core with Braun, Lucroy, Segura and hopefully solid contributors in Gennett and Davis.

[PrinceFielderx1]

We are better off trading Ramirez at the trading deadline in 2014. I don't think we would get much value for him now. If he hits well and stays healthy in 2014 he could conceivably bring back a decent haul from a contending team desperate for offense (Obviously assuming the Brewers aren't contending).

 

Lohse I am indifferent on and Gomez I have no interest in trading. Gomez was one of the most valuable players in all of baseball last year and has a team friendely contract. That is not the type of player you trade unless it is obvious to everyone that the overall team will be terrible. That is obviously not the case with the Brewers; while not everyone is crazy high on the team; no one thinks they are the Astros either.

 

The haul on Gomez would have to be astronomical for me to consider it wise to trade him. Gold glove centerfielders with strong offensive skills and speed don't grow on trees.

 

The only way I'd trade Ramirez is we had a good above average 3B prospect to replace him with. That's it.

[BallFour]

The only way I'd trade Ramirez is we had a good above average 3B prospect to replace him with. That's it.

 

This is exactly why I don't think Ramirez has been traded. 3B is probably our biggest hole in the minors position player wise and said team likely wouldn't trade their bonafide 3B prospect for an expensive 35 year old one and it wouldn't make sense to trade him if we don't even have a below average replacement if we were to trade for pitching instead. Hopefully Delmonico puts it together offensively and defensively next year. Got to love left handed hitting third basemen.

[RobertR]

We do? Nothing against Logan Schafer, but he has career 5th outfielder written all over him, not starting center fielder.

 

On top of Schafer we also have Braun, Gindl, and Davis. None of them are natural centerfielders but Gindl could probably handle it with Schafer as a late inning defensive replacement.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree here. None of Braun, Gindl, or Davis are centerfielders, IMO.

 

If the Brewers were to trade Gomez, they're going to have to bring somebody in. Now, maybe it is easier to find a serviceable centerfielder than a stud pitching prospect, for example. But, guys that play a premium defensive position don't fall out of trees either.

 

My main concern is that you can trade anyone in a vacuum. But, it has to be integrated into an overall strategy for talent acquisition, otherwise you just end up moving the holes around.

[Oldcity]

My off-season would have started with shopping Gomez and going from there.

 

It's very simple. Is Gomez going to help the Brewers make the playoffs? The answer is no, because this team isn't making the playoffs. Therefore, he's of no use to the Brewers. It would be better to turn him into a couple players who can come up with Segura to form the next core.

 

It goes back to what Paul was saying. This organization continuously holds on to players one or two years too long. For once, I'd love to see a player traded when he still has excellent value.

 

Of course, this shortsighted organization would never even entertain it.

[fondybrewfan]

Gomez is coming off of a very good year and is signed to a team friendly contract for multiple years. The only way a player like that gets traded period is if the team is expected to be absolutely awful. With the 2nd wildcard and the Brewers having a lot of other talent including Braun, Segura, Ramirez, Lucroy, etc this team is capable of making the playoffs even though it may seem unlikely at this point. Melvin or any other GM would be dumb to sacrifice even the possibility for a playoff birth in exchange for prospects that may help two years from now. Its not like we are the Astros here. There is a possiblity of the playoffs especially with the expanded wild card. And once you get in you just never know. Middling team like the Brewers are far less likely to sell off valuable pieces due to that fact.

[Warning Track Power]

There are a lot of ifs for the 2014 Brewers, but I don't necessarily believe that any of the ifs are really a stretch to believe can occur. Running through the team and if you assume health, you have the makings of a very strong everyday lineup and a potentially average to above average starting staff.

 

IF Gomez and Segura simply replicate 2013's finals numbers.

IF Braun remains the old Braun.

IF Ramirez and Lucroy put the numbers they have historically.

IF Davis and Gennett aren't necessarily what they were in 2013 but can put up serviceable numbers as everyday players. For Davis I am thinking .260/.330, 20 HR, 70 RBI and Gennett .280/.320.

IF Gallardo's 2013 was a fluke and he returns to pre-2013 Gallardo.

IF Lohse replicates 2013.

IF Peralta continues his 2013 2nd half development.

IF Estrada remains the pitcher he has been for the Brewers since becoming a starter.

IF Thornburg pitches to a 4.10 ERA as a #5.

 

Those are definitely a ton of ifs but what is really way out of left field, unfathomable and unreasonable there? Are all likely? Probably not. That isn't the point though. The point is that if most or all of those things happen, the Brewers are probably a high 80s win team. Trading Gomez from a team that has the potential to win in the high 80s and compete for a wild card is not something that the Brewers will entertain given the playoff opportunities for small markets are so fleeting.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Gomez was dealt for the Upton Package or simply just Walker and another helpful prospect. Walker by all accounts may be the Brewers #1 pitcher by season's end. With 5more years of receiving Walkers service. Way better than Gomez's value to this franchise for 3years..

In fact Walker may actually improve the Brewers ability to make the Playoffs this year. That's why you make Gomez available.

[Warning Track Power]

If Gomez was dealt for the Upton Package or simply just Walker and another helpful prospect. Walker by all accounts may be the Brewers #1 pitcher by season's end. With 5more years of receiving Walkers service. Way better than Gomez's value to this franchise for 3years..

In fact Walker may actually improve the Brewers ability to make the Playoffs this year. That's why you make Gomez available.

I agree that Walker for 5+ years is better than Gomez for 3. Which is why I don't think Gomez for Walker straight up is a deal Seattle will make. I know I wouldn't make that trade.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd find a 3rd team right now with a good farm system and work out a 3 team trade with Gomez going to that team and that teams prospects going to TB for David Price. Give up offense which we can do to get that top pitcher we need and move everybody in the rotation back a spot and FINALLY have pitching depth. Then I'd throw 7/160-175 million at Price to have him for the rest of his career. He is a pitcher I can see being worth the money Like CC Sabathia was. This will open the door for Tyrone Taylor.

[brewcrewdue80]

It all depends on the team makeup...Gomez in CF would be a huge addition for them. Playing in those parks in the AL West and Gomez getting to cover the OF for them?

Just remember he was worth 38runs saved in the OF last season. Now that kind of defense in a division where the ballparks aren't HR friendly can make for you #3s/#4s in your rotation to have #2/#3 stats. Not to mention the bat Gomez has. Seattle's OF is lacking in that department. That Speed/Power combo. They tried going after Upton who also had 3years remaining on his contract. This is why I would have opened the trade winds with Seattle due to that package and similar deal Gomez may be warrantng.

 

Seattle also has King Felix something Milwaukee hasn't had for a homegrown pitcher since Sheets. Only Felix is healthier and more dominant through a season. It's that outlook that again for Milwaukee since ace type pitching doesn't come along but every 20years as an organization the idea of Walker in our midst and trading him just is *Gasp* crazy talk.

 

But who has Seattle produced in the OF of significance since Ichiro began his downward trend? And think about it, Ichiro wasn't a homegrown kid but a signing. So how far back does Seattle go...Griffey? And considering they are of all this free money why not just trade and extend Gomez 3-4 more years locking him up. Then it's not a 3 year acquisition of Gomez but 6-7 for Walker.

 

It really is too bad Hultzen is on the shelf for 2014 because seriously, the M's would have traded away 1 of either Walker or Hultzen this offseason for some impact bat. or OF like Gomez.

[gregmag]

Gomez had an outstanding year, and his team friendly contract extension makes him a valuable asset for the Brewers over the next three years. I don't think it is crazy however to project that Gomez may be at his peak value at least in terms of trade return. Prior to last season Gomez had never posted a season WAR above 2.4 and had never posted an OBP above .305. Last season he put up an incredible .506 slugging percentage on his way to an 8.4 WAR. I wouldn't be surprised to see him regress to somewhere in between the player he was in previous seasons and the player he was this past year. He was also incredibly good on defense, but the reckless abandon with which he plays defensively also opens him up to an increased risk of injury. He can cover a ton of ground, but it also adds a greater possibility of making a full speed diving catch attempt while crashing into either the ground or the outfield fence.

 

For me, the decision on whether to trade Gomez or keep him comes down to how close the Brewers realistically are to being a playoff contending team over the next few seasons. If Gomez is likely to be the difference between making the playoffs and falling just short, then I am all for hanging onto him. If with him however they are closer to a .500 team, with little likelihood of being able to construct a roster better than an 82-84 win team, then I think deferring Gomez value by acquiring future wins in the form of prospects is more desirable.

 

I am going to throw out a hypothetical. One disclaimer, this scenario assumes the benefit of psychic abilities of which I don't actually have. Lets say we knew Gomez was going to be worth 4-5 wins over each of the next three seasons. Then lets say the Brewers minus Gomez were a 77 win team going into next year and were likely to be a 75-77 win team without him in the remaining two seasons of his contract. In this scenario Gomez would elevate the Brewers into a win total in the low-to-mid 80s which likely would not be good enough to finish in the top two in their division or qualify as a wild card team. Lets say we also knew that we were going to trade Gomez for three prospects reaching varying levels of success. The first of which never reaches MLB, and the other two of which become a first division regular and a No. 3 starter that combine for 5-8 wins between the two of them during their peak years. Assuming this sort of return I would prefer to defer the 2014-2016 wins to 2016-2020.

This, IMHO, is a seriously great post. I think you've perfectly traced a sensible thought process. Of course, JohnBriggs will probably come back with another snide and condescending dismissal, but don't worry about that; you're operating in a different zone. I don't think the Gomez question is at all easy, mainly because -- as you've illustrated -- it involves some difficult assumptions at the margin. But I think you've provided the right template for thinking about it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gomez had an outstanding year, and his team friendly contract extension makes him a valuable asset for the Brewers over the next three years. I don't think it is crazy however to project that Gomez may be at his peak value at least in terms of trade return. Prior to last season Gomez had never posted a season WAR above 2.4 and had never posted an OBP above .305. Last season he put up an incredible .506 slugging percentage on his way to an 8.4 WAR. I wouldn't be surprised to see him regress to somewhere in between the player he was in previous seasons and the player he was this past year. He was also incredibly good on defense, but the reckless abandon with which he plays defensively also opens him up to an increased risk of injury. He can cover a ton of ground, but it also adds a greater possibility of making a full speed diving catch attempt while crashing into either the ground or the outfield fence.

 

For me, the decision on whether to trade Gomez or keep him comes down to how close the Brewers realistically are to being a playoff contending team over the next few seasons. If Gomez is likely to be the difference between making the playoffs and falling just short, then I am all for hanging onto him. If with him however they are closer to a .500 team, with little likelihood of being able to construct a roster better than an 82-84 win team, then I think deferring Gomez value by acquiring future wins in the form of prospects is more desirable.

 

I am going to throw out a hypothetical. One disclaimer, this scenario assumes the benefit of psychic abilities of which I don't actually have. Lets say we knew Gomez was going to be worth 4-5 wins over each of the next three seasons. Then lets say the Brewers minus Gomez were a 77 win team going into next year and were likely to be a 75-77 win team without him in the remaining two seasons of his contract. In this scenario Gomez would elevate the Brewers into a win total in the low-to-mid 80s which likely would not be good enough to finish in the top two in their division or qualify as a wild card team. Lets say we also knew that we were going to trade Gomez for three prospects reaching varying levels of success. The first of which never reaches MLB, and the other two of which become a first division regular and a No. 3 starter that combine for 5-8 wins between the two of them during their peak years. Assuming this sort of return I would prefer to defer the 2014-2016 wins to 2016-2020.

This, IMHO, is a seriously great post. I think you've perfectly traced a sensible thought process. Of course, JohnBriggs will probably come back with another snide and condescending dismissal, but don't worry about that; you're operating in a different zone. I don't think the Gomez question is at all easy, mainly because -- as you've illustrated -- it involves some difficult assumptions at the margin. But I think you've provided the right template for thinking about it.

 

Since you were anticipating it, here it is though my comments aren't snide, they are though out as well as yours. Won't Gomez be worth nearly as much under those assumptions 2 years from now? Also can you give me the odds Doug Melvin who's now 61 will be around in 2016, much less 2020? What incentive does he have to be looking that far ahead? Sometime in the 2016-2020 time frame, Lucroy will be too expensive to keep too. So basically, to go from something close to a .500 team now that could if a lot of things break right contend to a bona fide contender is going to take a lot more than what you are suggesting, because as they are adding prospects, they are going to be subtracting proven talent. I suppose you could trade both Lucroy and Gomez, but there are still 42,000 seats that need to have customers in them for the franchise to remain viable.

 

As an aside, since you decided to make this personal, wouldn't this forum be boring if I weren't here to provide the occasional opposing viewpoint? It would be an echo chamber where all of you would convince each other how insightful you all are. I'm the same age as Doug Melvin, so while I don't agree with a lot of what he does or doesn't do, I do understand where he's coming from and I do understand business and the bottom line. The Brewers aren't the Cubs who have enough fans who relish visiting a museum every year to keep the team afloat while management takes 8-10 years to try building from within. The Brewers have to maintain interest in the current team. Those projecting 77 wins this year thankfully aren't in charge of the franchise. Management sees potential for a lot more than that and they should be striving with that assumption in mind, not throwing in the towel for the next 3 to 5 seasons.

[gregmag]

As an aside, since you decided to make this personal, wouldn't this forum be boring if I weren't here to provide the occasional opposing viewpoint? It would be an echo chamber where all of you would convince each other how insightful you all are. I'm the same age as Doug Melvin, so while I don't agree with a lot of what he does or doesn't do, I do understand where he's coming from and I do understand business and the bottom line.

I think you're an incredibly insightful guy, and I often learn from your posts. I try to make a point of saying when I do. You know a hell of a lot more about baseball than I do, and I think you probably know more than a great many other people here.

 

But those couple of sentences, right there, show why I think this forum would be far better off if you went away. "An echo chamber where all of you would convince each other how insightful you all are"? Really? If that's what you get from reading this board -- as if you bothered to read with any care what other people post -- then you're even more arrogant and intellectually lazy than you usually come off. People here disagree with each other all the time. Many of us even question, and sometimes change, our own positions and assumptions, which is something I've never seen you do in your hundreds of posts I've read. You pontificate, you whine, you sneer. I've never once read a post where you engaged thoughtfully and respectfully with someone whose views didn't exactly mirror your own. I've never once seen you acknowledge that you learn anything from anyone else.

 

Pretending that you're the only person here who offers opposing views to the hive mind, that you're unique and superior in your understanding of "business and the bottom line," shows contempt for everyone else who posts on this board. You could be a valuable contributor to discussions, but instead you choose to be a cancer.

[jjkoestler]

GregMag & JohnBriggs12 - Please stop the personal attacks. You've both been members for a long time and know the rules.