The Potential Carlos Gomez Trade Package

[fleehaw]

He is one of the most valuable commodities the Brewers have. What kind of package would it take for you to pull the trigger on a deal? What teams seem like a good fit?

 

Two from me:

The Dbacks seem ideal with a package built around Bradley and Davidson. Bradley, Davidson, Pollack, and McCarthey for Gomez and Lohse. This would give the Brewers their ace pitching prospect, a long term fixture at 3B and tremendous salary flexibility in 2015.

 

What about Seattle? By signing Cano they may have a log jam in the infield. They need help in the outfield and are apparently looking for more pitching. Seager, Paxson, and another prospect for Gomez and Lohse. The Brewers get a lefty batter at 3B for the next 4 years and a solid lefty starter that is major league ready. In this scenario Ramirez would move to 1B and again, the Brewers would have a lot of flexibility in 2015.

[logan82]

That is sort of a dirty title.

[trwi7]

Not a chance the D'Backs give up Bradley for Gomez and Lohse even disregarding the other pieces.

[SRB]

Not a chance the D'Backs give up Bradley for Gomez and Lohse even disregarding the other pieces.

I admit that Gomez is a hard player to value, but I don't think that's a crazy proposal. If rival GMs think Gomez is even close to the 7.6 fWAR player he was last season, then he is a huge commodity. Three years of peak-year Gomez on a relatively cheap contract versus six years of a prospect?

[PrinceFielderx1]

Doug Melvin will never trade Gomez or Segura. Why? It's very rare to have that kind of talent at the two most talent needed positions on the Diamond. It's a necessity.

[Woozee]

We are feeling good profit from both players. Why trade when we are finally seeing growth?

[JohnBriggs12]

We are feeling good profit from both players. Why trade when we are finally seeing growth?

 

You'll learn that any time a Brewer player has a breakout season, some on this board will suggest trading that player. I call it the "Bill Hall" syndrome. Of course not every player is Bill Hall.

[sheetskout]

We are feeling good profit from both players. Why trade when we are finally seeing growth?

 

You'll learn that any time a Brewer player has a breakout season, some on this board will suggest trading that player. I call it the "Bill Hall" syndrome. Of course not every player is Bill Hall.

 

It's really because that's what we have to do in this market to stay competitive. Especially when our early-round draft record lately has been less than par. In this market we have the luxury to sign one large contract and a few supporting big-money deals and that's about it.

 

I don't blame fans for wanting to parlay Gomez into a frontline starter or something like that. Because realistically, we're virtually outpriced at trying to get top pitching in the free-agent market.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

We are feeling good profit from both players. Why trade when we are finally seeing growth?

 

You'll learn that any time a Brewer player has a breakout season, some on this board will suggest trading that player. I call it the "Bill Hall" syndrome. Of course not every player is Bill Hall.

 

It's really because that's what we have to do in this market to stay competitive. Especially when our early-round draft record lately has been less than par. In this market we have the luxury to sign one large contract and a few supporting big-money deals and that's about it.

 

I don't blame fans for wanting to parlay Gomez into a frontline starter or something like that. Because realistically, we're virtually outpriced at trying to get top pitching in the free-agent market.

 

I agree with that and I would add that the current front office has struggled to draft good pitchers. Normally I wouldn't want to trade a good young hitter, but the lack of pitching on this team is scary. I don't have any confidence in the current front office fixing the situation.

[Woozee]

We are feeling good profit from both players. Why trade when we are finally seeing growth?

 

You'll learn that any time a Brewer player has a breakout season, some on this board will suggest trading that player. I call it the "Bill Hall" syndrome. Of course not every player is Bill Hall.

 

I'd rather see the brewers get better with their drafting/signing of minor leaguers and give them a farm that is proven to develop players then stay in a vicious cycle of trading.

[JohnBriggs12]

We are feeling good profit from both players. Why trade when we are finally seeing growth?

 

You'll learn that any time a Brewer player has a breakout season, some on this board will suggest trading that player. I call it the "Bill Hall" syndrome. Of course not every player is Bill Hall.

 

I'd rather see the brewers get better with their drafting/signing of minor leaguers and give them a farm that is proven to develop players then stay in a vicious cycle of trading.

 

I agree. You aren't going to continue to fill Miller Park by constantly dealing off popular players who are at their peak. Right now Gomez and Lucroy are the faces of the franchise. In light of the Braun fiasco, they are essentially untouchable not just because of their production. They can do that in Tampa/St. Pete because nobody goes to their games anyway. Gomez is still going to have great trade value in 2 years. Lets enjoy him while we have him. Besides the drop off from him to Schafer is dramatic as it would be if Lucroy were traded. Lets develop his replacement first and then see what you can get for him, as they did with Hardy.

[Invader3K]

I'd love to see Carlos Gomez traded for a package of prospects with high upside, but I just don't see it happening with Melvin at the helm and Attanasio calling the shots.

 

Edit: Updated the thread title to be more specific. 12 year old me is disappointed.

[MNBrew]

I do believe Gomez is everything he's showing now. This ability is what they've been talking about w/ him since he came up: a legit 5-tool player with rare speed, Gold Glove defense, huge power, and a much improving bat. But he's also signed for 3 more years at well below FA market value. He's the sort of guy teams often build around.

 

I think some folks are more inclined to doubt him because more of his development happened at the MLB level -- in part because of when the Mets initially brought him up, and then further because the Twins felt they needed to have him on the field as part of their return for trading a repeat Cy Young Award winner -- ultimately meaning we've seen plenty of the lousiness in his early game because it happened while he was wearing a Brewers uniform rather than being hidden down in the minors. . . . Funny how 2-3 years ago, so many were ready to run Gomez out of town (myself included), but patience and development are REAL and can bear out or even transcend statistically based projections.

 

Part of my hesitancy to trade Gomez also is rooted in those '90s teams, when guys we were trading off to favor the younger player (not moves like the Vaughn deal when we knew he was an FA goner; rather, trading Vina rather than Belliard is the only one that comes to mind, although I distinctly recall there were 1-2 others just like it around the same time -- Loretta or Cirillo, maybe?) kept backfiring because the young guys never reached their predecessor's performance level and eventually amounted to nothing great. In light of that, . . .

 

. . . . I get the idea of trading at peak value to net a return of young talent, but I think what some on BF.net lose sight of is that that's a gamble with a payoff that's still ultimately got a greater likelihood of failure than success. . . . It just puts the failure off for a while and in the meantime strings along the fan base under the premise of hope.

 

I'm not arguing that it's a needed strategy at times and, when a team does it right, it can position a team well for a long period of time. However, I don't fault DM & MA for taking their "retooling" approach each year because the "young talent" thing is also a HUGE gamble with no better guaranteed result than the approach the Brewers have taken for the past 6-7 years. That's why I'm tending to agree w/ JB12's angle that it at least bears having Gomez's replacement on-hand before trading him.

[fleehaw]

I'd love to see Carlos Gomez traded for a package of prospects with high upside, but I just don't see it happening with Melvin at the helm and Attanasio calling the shots.

 

Edit: Updated the thread title to be more specific. 12 year old me is disappointed.

 

I was purposeful with the title. Enough innuendo to make some of us perhaps immature people chuckle, but not be offensive or obscene.

 

For the record, I would be shocked if the Brewers traded Gomez. I was also purposeful with the wording of the initial post. Gomez is one of the assets with the most value on the Brewers. Is their a package of players/prospects that you would deal him for? What teams would be good fits? Winter has set in so a little fantasy GM'ing doesn't hurt even if the premise is improbable.

[Eye Black]

Gomez had an outstanding year, and his team friendly contract extension makes him a valuable asset for the Brewers over the next three years. I don't think it is crazy however to project that Gomez may be at his peak value at least in terms of trade return. Prior to last season Gomez had never posted a season WAR above 2.4 and had never posted an OBP above .305. Last season he put up an incredible .506 slugging percentage on his way to an 8.4 WAR. I wouldn't be surprised to see him regress to somewhere in between the player he was in previous seasons and the player he was this past year. He was also incredibly good on defense, but the reckless abandon with which he plays defensively also opens him up to an increased risk of injury. He can cover a ton of ground, but it also adds a greater possibility of making a full speed diving catch attempt while crashing into either the ground or the outfield fence.

 

For me, the decision on whether to trade Gomez or keep him comes down to how close the Brewers realistically are to being a playoff contending team over the next few seasons. If Gomez is likely to be the difference between making the playoffs and falling just short, then I am all for hanging onto him. If with him however they are closer to a .500 team, with little likelihood of being able to construct a roster better than an 82-84 win team, then I think deferring Gomez value by acquiring future wins in the form of prospects is more desirable.

 

I am going to throw out a hypothetical. One disclaimer, this scenario assumes the benefit of psychic abilities of which I don't actually have. Lets say we knew Gomez was going to be worth 4-5 wins over each of the next three seasons. Then lets say the Brewers minus Gomez were a 77 win team going into next year and were likely to be a 75-77 win team without him in the remaining two seasons of his contract. In this scenario Gomez would elevate the Brewers into a win total in the low-to-mid 80s which likely would not be good enough to finish in the top two in their division or qualify as a wild card team. Lets say we also knew that we were going to trade Gomez for three prospects reaching varying levels of success. The first of which never reaches MLB, and the other two of which become a first division regular and a No. 3 starter that combine for 5-8 wins between the two of them during their peak years. Assuming this sort of return I would prefer to defer the 2014-2016 wins to 2016-2020.

[paul253]

I call it the "Bill Hall" syndrome. Of course not every player is Bill Hall.

 

You should call it the "Bill Hall/John Axford/Casey McGehee/Nyger Morgan/Derrick Turnbow/Wes Helms/Jim Henderson/Kyle Lohse why on earth would we trade someone who just had a good year even though their numbers were out of line career norms oops his trade value just plummeted because we held onto him too long" syndrome.

 

I know that's a bit of an exaggeration and not all of those guys had a ton of trade value. I'm just so sick of this attitude the Brewers front office seems to have that if anyone ever has a good year they absolutely positively cannot be traded (unless of course they only have one year left on their contract).

 

Clearly the Brewers cannot afford premium pitching on the FA market. Clearly they are having a very, very hard time developing their own. And clearly the Brewers need pitching to compete. There are only so many options left if you can't sign or develop premium pitching. You are pretty much down to trading for it. Well trading for premium pitching, especially cost controlled premium is going to cost you......a lot. The Brewers have a few guys capable of bringing back that type of talent. I'd say Braun (whose value is way down), Lucroy and Segura (neither of whom we have a capable replacement for above A ball) and of course Gomez. Gomez just had a breakout year, as opposed to consistently having good years, and we have a surplus of outfielders. So it stands to reason that IF the Brewers want to get premium, cost controlled pitching now trading Carlos Gomez is their best option.

[logan82]

If we had a team like we had a few years back I would advocate holding onto Gomez. We sit here with a very poor farm system and a mediocre MLB club. No reason to keep guys like Gomez when we can flip them for talent and get better sooner.

[RobertR]

Gomez just had a breakout year, as opposed to consistently having good years, and we have a surplus of outfielders. So it stands to reason that IF the Brewers want to get premium, cost controlled pitching now trading Carlos Gomez is their best option.

 

 

We do? Nothing against Logan Schafer, but he has career 5th outfielder written all over him, not starting center fielder.

 

Trading Gomez in isolation isn't without consequences. I'd argue that trading him as part of a fire sale along with Braun, Lucroy, whatever you can get for Weeks with money thrown in, Ramirez, Lohse, Gallardo, etc. makes sense, but trading him in isolation is just a half measure.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If we had a team like we had a few years back I would advocate holding onto Gomez. We sit here with a very poor farm system and a mediocre MLB club. No reason to keep guys like Gomez when we can flip them for talent and get better sooner.

 

 

You act like just go out and trade for prospects and we"ll get better. This isn't fantasy baseball my friend. Gomez has a team friendly deal, great defender, ascending hitter and he loves Milwaukee. A number of the closet GM's on this board are pretty amusing (in a bad way).

 

There's plenty of prospects who don't pan out, we have people on here who want to give 1b to Gamel for god sakes.

[logan82]

If we had a team like we had a few years back I would advocate holding onto Gomez. We sit here with a very poor farm system and a mediocre MLB club. No reason to keep guys like Gomez when we can flip them for talent and get better sooner.

 

 

You act like just go out and trade for prospects and we"ll get better. This isn't fantasy baseball my friend. Gomez has a team friendly deal, great defender, ascending hitter and he loved Milwaukee. A number of the closet GM's on this board are pretty amusing (in a bad way).

 

There's plenty of prospects who don't pan out, we have people on here who want to give 1b to Gamel for god sakes.

No, I act like sitting on players while our minors are poor and the MLB team is mediocore is a bad idea. Of course prospects fail. However if we do nothing we are not going to improve anyway. I would rather try to get better than just sit on players and be mediocre until they leave in free agency.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Gomez could have tested FA but re-signed. Instead of trading away our best players hoping we"ll get better maybe someone should talk to Seid about his drafting, it's suspect at best.

[brewcrewdue80]

The real question is what is Gomez worth today in prospects?

What is he worth if he's a 5WAR+ player again this season and you trade his final two years?

What do you give up for Gomez for his final year before free Agency being a 5+WAR CF?

 

 

Let's be on the optimistic side and say that Gomez will continue playing at this current level he's at. a 5WAR+ CF.

 

What is the decline in the Gomez trade package from 3years of Gomez to 2years? And then to 1 year?

 

You can attach a QO to Gomez being a 5WAR player so already you should be getting a B type Prospect just because of the comp pick regardless of Gomez and his value.

 

Now 5WAR is special you're looking at 15WAR or more for 3years. It is in line with what David Price is worth in approximation. So a top 20Prospect today should be in the discussion with that B Prospect. Then to me he's still worthy of another B type Prospect near A- type prospect because prospects don't always pan out right? So you had better give us two to increase our odds of seeing 1 of them work.

That 3rd B prospect isn't for Gomez but for the compensation. pretty much you likely take a team's 2011-2012 draft pick in the 1st/2nd round and say you get that player in 2016 again when Gomez leaves.

 

Don't forget the value to the team that trades for Gomez. You have the rights to extend his contract while under your team control.

 

So to me it's an A, A-/B+, and a B prospect today for Gomez.

If you trade him at the trade deadline to next offseason I think the decline in the package is to an A, B+/B, and a B prospect.

But in his final year I think Gomez isn't worth an A prospect anymore and he's not worth 3 prospects he becomes worth 2 B+/B prospects.

 

So I'm okay if they hang on to Gomez this year especially with Aoki gone and being confident Gomez is a 5WAR player.

But he cannot stay on the team for 2015 because he loses way to much value.

The one team that's been mentioned is Seattle. If I'm them I throw all I can at Choo and trade for Gomez. An OF of Saunders,Gomez, and Choo offensively/defensively is something that with Cano can produce runs. You add to it Zunino/Miller blossoming and yeah Felix just may get the Offense he's never had.

 

Getting Walker for Gomez would be A+ in Prospect haul and I think their only needs to be a B Prospect afterward. Again you look at Franklin being disposable, maybe you can keep Gennett and send over Weeks. Or I'm also asking about Pryor. Walker and Pryor would be serious additions for Milwaukee from the downgrade of Gomez to Schafer. With that Cano signing it's about the only way they can go I feel or else the guy is a moron. Sign Choo get Gomez win!

 

I also think that for Seattle to consider trading for Price or say Gomez as we are hoping that having Hultzen shelved really should have put the brakes on these moves. Hultzen was the guy that to me is your trade bait and you can't trade him right now. So the target becomes Walker by everyone and he's the next King Felix potentially today. While Hultzen wasn't looking as high an upside, but, an upside that a team would take in a package for Price with Franklin/Miller and maybe a RP.

I just think that in the end Seattle is going to have this all turn out bad because of Hultzen being injured. And them my next prediction is that Hultzen who remains with Seattle Busts!!! LOL It's going to be a viscious cycle of events.

[logan82]

Gomez could have tested FA but re-signed. Instead of trading away our best players hoping we"ll get better maybe someone should talk to Seid about his drafting, it's suspect at best.

It isn't a binary decision. Talking to Seid or replacing him doesn't help for probably 5-6 years. That still puts us far enough out that guys like Gomez, Ramirez, Lohse, and Gallardo will not be around. Guys like Lucroy, Segura, and Braun will still be around but we can shorten the time it takes us to improve if we trade a couple guys. To compete we need the talent in the organization bunched up. Right now it is spread out throughout the entire organization. Flipping guys like Gomez, Ramirez, and Lohse puts our talent further out and bunches it up with the younger talent we already have.

[fondybrewfan]

We are better off trading Ramirez at the trading deadline in 2014. I don't think we would get much value for him now. If he hits well and stays healthy in 2014 he could conceivably bring back a decent haul from a contending team desperate for offense (Obviously assuming the Brewers aren't contending).

 

Lohse I am indifferent on and Gomez I have no interest in trading. Gomez was one of the most valuable players in all of baseball last year and has a team friendely contract. That is not the type of player you trade unless it is obvious to everyone that the overall team will be terrible. That is obviously not the case with the Brewers; while not everyone is crazy high on the team; no one thinks they are the Astros either.

 

The haul on Gomez would have to be astronomical for me to consider it wise to trade him. Gold glove centerfielders with strong offensive skills and speed don't grow on trees.

[Roderick]

Trading Gomez in isolation isn't without consequences. I'd argue that trading him as part of a fire sale along with Braun, Lucroy, whatever you can get for Weeks with money thrown in, Ramirez, Lohse, Gallardo, etc. makes sense, but trading him in isolation is just a half measure.

 

Exactly. You aren't trading Gomez unless there were trades or will be more trades of anyone making money the next two years for the Brewers. And if that is happening that means that something is happening on an ownership level.