Mariners sign Robinson Cano: 10 yrs./$240mm

[torts]

The Mariners should go mental.

 

Trade for David Price (walker and franklin would be a good starting point)

Outbid everyone for Tanaka

Sign Napoli, Choo and Balfour

 

Rotation of Price, Tanaka, King Felix, Iwakuma and James Paxson

Zunino is the catcher. Napoli 1B, Cano 2B, Miller SS, Seager 3B, Choo RF, Saunders CF, Ackley LF, Montero and Smoak battle it out for DH.

Balfour closes.

 

Of course, you're taking on $85-90 million in salary. But what the hell. Seattle has only $36 million in salary obligations for 2014 - and no arby cases.

 

at this point, they really should. you dont spend 200 million on one player to be 3rd place in your division

[danzig6767]

The amount of new TV money that will be flowing into baseball is huge and the big markets are about to reset all salary thought processes. The new national deal with ESPN that kicks in in 2014 will result in 52% more TV money to everyone but the regional deals is where the big jumps will come in and where the market differences play out.

 

Earlier this year Seattle bought the regional sports network ROOT that carried their games. They had an out clause to renegotiate rates or open it up for bidding in 2015. One report estimates that their TV revs will be $2B over the next 20 years as a result versus the previous deal of 10 yrs. $450MM. Their TV revs jump at least $25MM from the national deal and the regional deal add about $55MM annually to their budget. They should have at least $80MM and by some estimates $100MM annually in added revenues starting next year.

They also avoid all start up costs for the TV network and are one of the few teams that are completely debt free and owe nothing on their stadium adding to their financial flexibility. Their revenue package is smaller than the $3B the Angels and Rangers are expected to generate over 15 yrs. but still puts them worlds above the levels teams like the A's or even the Brewers will generate. So while the Brewers are hoping to add $10MM or $15MM to local TV deals, the big markets are adding 8x to 10x that amount locally.

 

I am willing to bet that in 10 years a $20MM+ contract will be viewed about the same as a $8MM deal today and will hardly be seen as hamstringing big market teams.

 

I get that many teams are swimming in revenues and thus have tons of cash to give out.

 

What doesn't make sense to me is the length of so many of these monster contracts being handed out, not the yearly salaries. Look at Pujols and others for an example. Sure the Angels have tons of revenues, but if Albert stays in the decline he looks to be in, paying him 25 million per over the next eight years is still basically lighting piles of cash on fire. The same will likely happen at some point to the Reds with the contract they gave Votto which will be paying him 25 million per from ages 35-40. Odds are at best the Mariners will be lucky to get 5-6 really good years from Cano, then the other roughly 125-150 million will largely be used for a bonfire.

[SRB]

Absolutely preposterous. In what world is Cano anywhere close to the same league as generational-type players like A-Rod or Pujols? These $200M+ contracts are such horrible ideas.

 

*Edit* I mean, obviously the Pujols contract looks like a colossal error, but at least it is more understandable because Pujols is a no-doubt Hall of Fame player and nobody would have been surprised if he won another 3+ MVPs over the life of the contract (when it was signed). But Robinson Cano...? Huh?

[Fear The Chorizo]

I was hoping after MLB actually started testing for PEDs in earnest that GMs would quickly realize that even the best players aren't going to remain superstars into their late 30's, early 40's, and the lengths of these crazy contracts would at least drop. Having the added revenue streams sure is great, and I'd have no problem for teams with the funds to shell out Cano/ARod/Pujols-type coin for superstars playing in their prime, but on 4-6 year deals, not a freaking decade.

 

Agents are still getting away with using precedent for these super long term deals - that precedent was set during the heyday of the steroid era, when guys added 4-5 seasons of prime onto their careers with PEDs. Unfortunately it would take all MLB GMs and owners to make a stand by not giving out these longterm deals and that doesn't appear to have any chance of happening. A 10 year extension for a guy in his mid-20's? for the right player that can still be a good investment. 10 year FA deals with no trade clauses for a guy already in his 30's? stupid unless the Mariners know Cano's been able to avoid PED bans with whatever masking agent he's been using (remember he was involved with Biogenesis...albeit indirectly) - with how the Seahawks have been operating over the past few years in that part of the country, that may be Jack Z.'s reasoning.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why would you as the Mariners change your stance from 8 years 200mil? Why? The Yankees firmly said they weren't touching 200mil for Cano, Signed!...Signed! Kelly Johnson! Effectively ending their search to retain Cano at 2b! If anything I'd have lowered my offer down to 7/180 and gave him 1 week to decide. I mean Seattle was in the drivers seat here with Franklin and the Yankees looking out of the Cano talks! Who else? if any team was their connection to the money NY was offering in the first place? 7/175?

 

Really a poor deal! One I don't get. Seattle should have gone after Choo. That's who they needed to acquire today and sat ready to figure out their team's future for 2015. So, So many young graduated prospects to sift through to see where you're at and where you may need to strengthen! But Choo is one addition they didn't have covered to play RF for them.

 

Why you would pay him beyond age 36 is beyond me. There is far too much risk involved in skills or age related injuries to pay him 20+mil for age 37-41!

[rondoman]

Seattle has been said to have over 60 million left to spend this season.

[jjfanec]

Seattle has been said to have over 60 million left to spend this season.

 

Well this is one way to spend nearly half of it.

 

This isn't a terrible move for this year. It is a terrible move for 4-10 years from now. They might not have a lot of arbitration eligible players and a low payroll but if some of their young guys perform they will be expensive 3-4 years from now

[MJLiverock]

Absolutely preposterous. In what world is Cano anywhere close to the same league as generational-type players like A-Rod or Pujols? These $200M+ contracts are such horrible ideas.

 

*Edit* I mean, obviously the Pujols contract looks like a colossal error, but at least it is more understandable because Pujols is a no-doubt Hall of Fame player and nobody would have been surprised if he won another 3+ MVPs over the life of the contract (when it was signed). But Robinson Cano...? Huh?

 

Because generational sure fire Hall of Famers are going to cost $30MM in future not $20MM/year. I can see the point and belief that signing guys to guaranteed contracts for 10 yrs. is dumb, but if they can insure the deal to at least get some of the money back if the guy has a career ending injury in year 4 that helps mitigate it. But in the dollar terms of the deals I think we have to come to grips with the idea that salary inflation is about to explode.

 

The top 10 teams in payroll averaged $155MM last year. My guess is that number moves closer to $200MM in the very near future due to the doubling of national TV money for everyone and the explosion in local TV money for the big markets. That is an additional $450MM in annual salary spend for the top 10, or roughly 22 more $20MM players just on the top teams. This may actually be understating the money available since teams like the Phillies, Mariners, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, are seeing increases in excess of $75MM, even the Padres and Astros are getting $50MM plus bumps. This also doesn't include what the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees are capable of doing.

 

Middling guys like Feldman are getting $10MM/year. I expect a lot of people are going to be surprised at how many non stars are going to paid in the $10MM+/season range.

[DHonks]

I would expect Cano to play for 2-3 years for the Mariners and then be traded--along with $25-35 million, to the Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, Mets, Cubs or Rangers. One mistake that's commonly made on Brewerfan is that we assume that the team signing a player to a big contract will remain there for the entire contract, but that's often not the case. For instance, if the Yankees were to have 5-7 legit prospects, it's quite possible they'd be traded for Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, and $30-50 million.

[DHonks]

If I were the M's, I would heavily front-load this deal. Give him $35-40 million in 2014, $35-40 million in 2015, and then you're talking about 8 years @ $160-170 million.

[logan82]

Full no trade clause.

[chickinbrickin]

The Mariners have a lot of nice young pieces in place. Hultzen, Walker, Zunino all have All Star+ upside.

 

Felix is Felix and Iwakuma is very good. They could use something more in the OF, but if some of their MLB ready high upside guys pan out they could be good.

[RockCoCougars]

This deal is just absurd. Obviously, the bean counters for the Mariner brain trust are confident in their revenue projections for the future, but this one could be a franchise killer if something goes awry.

[DocLuna7]

Full no trade clause.

 

So did Prince. Just means Cano can make demands and possibly get another bonus of some sort if he approves a trade.

[Invader3K]

MLB Network just showed an interesting graphic about the Mariners' attendance. Basically, over the past twelve years, their attendance has steadily plunged to about 50% of their peak in 2001. I'm not saying it justifies this contract, but from a business standpoint, they probably did need to do something.

[Woozee]

MLB Network just showed an interesting graphic about the Mariners' attendance. Basically, over the past twelve years, their attendance has steadily plunged to about 50% of their peak in 2001. I'm not saying it justifies this contract, but from a business standpoint, they probably did need to do something.

 

If be curious to know if a star coming to the franchise would sell more tickets or of the team was winning with a bunch of decent players.

[Dean Machine]

Does anyone even consider Cano they type of player that you would buy a ticket to see him play? I've gone to Nationals games to see Strasburg and I've gone to a Dodgers game to see Kershaw pitch and I even went to Pensacola to see Puig play when the lookouts were in town but I've never even considered going to a Yankees game just to see Cano. I've been to several Yankees games over the years when they were playing the Twins or Brewers or to see old or new Yankee Stadium nd I've never told my wife to watch him specifically as I do for other superstar players. Honestly he's a good addition from a playing standpoint but I can't imagine he is selling any tickets.

[Invader3K]

Does anyone even consider Cano they type of player that you would buy a ticket to see him play? I've gone to Nationals games to see Strasburg and I've gone to a Dodgers game to see Kershaw pitch and I even went to Pensacola to see Puig play when the lookouts were in town but I've never even considered going to a Yankees game just to see Cano. I've been to several Yankees games over the years when they were playing the Twins or Brewers or to see old or new Yankee Stadium nd I've never told my wife to watch him specifically as I do for other superstar players. Honestly he's a good addition from a playing standpoint but I can't imagine he is selling any tickets.

 

I personally don't. We're talking about Robinson Cano, a guy who averages about 24 home runs a season and a .860 career OPS. Very good player, but not a guy I think the average fan is going to buy a ticket specifically to see. I think there are few positions players like that in the game right now. Miguel Cabrera is maybe one. Puig is probably another, like you said.

[trwi7]

Okay, this is hilarious. Mystery team offers 9/225, Mariners up their offer to 10/240, then realize they were the mystery team

[monty57]

I'd guess the novelty of a big signing will boost sales in the short-term, but not the long-term. In other words, I'm sure some people went out and bought tickets after hearing about the signing, but if they have a bad year this year, those same people aren't going to buy tickets next year just because Cano will still be on the team. They'll need another "splash" next year to keep their interest. Trying to buy fairweather fans' loyalty can lead you down a costly path.

 

I agree with MJ that we are in the midst (potentially just the beginning) of massive inflation in player salaries. That said, I think that there is way too much risk in signing a 10-year free agent deal, especially to someone already in his 30's. But, GMs will always want to "make a splash" and "win now." That's an unfortunate byproduct of GMs who exist in a short-term, high-turnover field being put in the position of controlling the long-term future of the team.