Norichika Aoki traded to Kansas City Royals for LHP Will Smith

[Invader3K]

Royals manager New Yost with some nice comments about Smith here: http://m.jsonline.com/more/sports/blogs/235153821.html

[MNBrew]

The thing about saying Smith will compete for a starting spot is the same as saying it about Thornburg, Nelson, Hellweg, & Burgos, plus who knows who else at this point: You don't just hand one of those guys a spot -- not a one of 'em (although IMO Thornburg deserves at least a little cred, just like Estrada did last winter & the year before). You create competition & make 'em earn it.

 

The obvious thing is that none of us really know what Smith will do. We can read reports, get into the deep stats, etc., but none of that matters as much as what the guy actually does when he gets out there on the mound at Maryvale & then Miller Park.

 

I'm all for that open competition and racking up as many more good young arms as possible while keeping the current roster mostly intact (save the necessary or can't-turn-down move that's necessary to address glaring needs AND increase the talent base).

[PrinceFielderx1]

We would have the best offense in the NL and likely baseball.

 

Wow, now there's some hot stove optimism.

 

I'm laughing right now because that comment of mine isn't far fetched at all. The Brewers a couple years ago had the second best offense in baseball and if you take ball park size out of the equation they had the number 1 offense with worse players than they have now. Since then we added Segura and Davis, and Gomez has met his potential.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The thing about saying Smith will compete for a starting spot is the same as saying it about Thornburg, Nelson, Hellweg, & Burgos, plus who knows who else at this point: You don't just hand one of those guys a spot -- not a one of 'em (although IMO Thornburg deserves at least a little cred, just like Estrada did last winter & the year before). You create competition & make 'em earn it.

 

The obvious thing is that none of us really know what Smith will do. We can read reports, get into the deep stats, etc., but none of that matters as much as what the guy actually does when he gets out there on the mound at Maryvale & then Miller Park.

 

I'm all for that open competition and racking up as many more good young arms as possible while keeping the current roster mostly intact (save the necessary or can't-turn-down move that's necessary to address glaring needs AND increase the talent base).

 

I don't think any of the pitchers you mentioned will be in the rotation to start the season unless Estrada get's traded. I really believe the Brewers will add a good SP and that will make estrada the number 5, and the Brewers favor him over anyone else.

[danzig6767]

not worried at all about a perceived lack or rotation spots for some younger arms knocking on the MLB door - seems like some had similar concerns last offseason even before Lohse was signed, and look how that turned out...there was significant debate over who should be viewed as the rotation #2, Fiers or Estrada.

 

these hot stove concerns have a way of taking care of themselves, especially with younger or unproven pitching at the big league level. at the end of the day talent always wins out with all other things being equal, so a pitcher like Nelson or Hellweg shouldn't be worried about the Brewers acquiring a guy like Smith. Smith adds to their pitching depth and quality, but in no way would having him on the big league roster prevent Nelson or Hellweg from earning a rotation spot if they truly deserve it.

 

I'd love to see Nelson grab hold of a rotation spot and run with it, but i have far lesser hopes for Hellweg.

 

If he was a hard thrower with control issues who walked to many guys, but also got a lot of strikeouts, i'd feel better about Hellweg's chances to amount to something. Instead, he only had 89 K's and a whopping 81 walks over 125 innings in AAA. Over 30 innings in the majors, he only struck out 9 batters, while walking an insane 26 and allowing 40 hits.

[FVBrewerFan]

We would have the best offense in the NL and likely baseball.

 

Wow, now there's some hot stove optimism.

 

I'm laughing right now because that comment of mine isn't far fetched at all. The Brewers a couple years ago had the second best offense in baseball and if you take ball park size out of the equation they had the number 1 offense with worse players than they have now. Since then we added Segura and Davis, and Gomez has met his potential.

 

Well, they also had a guy named Prince Fielder then...

[yoshii8]

I haven't heard, is this new Will Smith guy scared of anything?

[FVBrewerFan]

I doubt there ever is such a thing as to many good young pitchers.

 

Exactly. Especially in December. Who knows if any of these pitchers gets injured in Spring Training, is just flat-out ineffective, etc. If any of these young pitchers start out in the pen, or even in Nashville I don't see a problem with that. If all of them are lights-out in Spring Training, I certainly don't see a problem with that either. If the biggest issue the Brewers have is how you find spots in the rotation for a bunch of outstanding young pitchers coming off spectacular ST performance, we're in pretty good shape.

 

Also, remember that one of these guys could become a closer at some point in the next couple years.

[monty57]

I doubt there ever is such a thing as to many good young pitchers.

 

The Brewer farm is a down system all around, but the strongest position they have is near-MLB-ready, decent-but-not-great pitching. It's never a bad thing to add talent, but I'd rather the Brewers' farm have a little more diversification of talent.

 

As I mentioned before, Smith is a useful player, and if you were looking for a "MLB ready" player he was probably good talent in return for Aoki. I just would have preferred a good AA/AAA 3B or a lower minors SP with higher upside. A good young C, 1B, SS or 2B would be useful as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

The thing about saying Smith will compete for a starting spot is the same as saying it about Thornburg, Nelson, Hellweg, & Burgos, plus who knows who else at this point: You don't just hand one of those guys a spot -- not a one of 'em (although IMO Thornburg deserves at least a little cred, just like Estrada did last winter & the year before). You create competition & make 'em earn it.

 

The obvious thing is that none of us really know what Smith will do. We can read reports, get into the deep stats, etc., but none of that matters as much as what the guy actually does when he gets out there on the mound at Maryvale & then Miller Park.

 

I'm all for that open competition and racking up as many more good young arms as possible while keeping the current roster mostly intact (save the necessary or can't-turn-down move that's necessary to address glaring needs AND increase the talent base).

 

I don't think any of the pitchers you mentioned will be in the rotation to start the season unless Estrada get's traded. I really believe the Brewers will add a good SP and that will make estrada the number 5, and the Brewers favor him over anyone else.

 

I don't agree. There are just too many guys on the cusp or already into their major league careers to be stunted at this stage by bringing in another mediocre veteran. I do believe that it's really a 2 man race for the 5th starter job between Thornburg and Smith, with the odd guy out, going to the pen. Remember Thornburg, when he wasn't starting last year compiled some good relief outings. Nelson, Hellweg, Burgos will be starting in Nashville and available should those guys falter or if and when another starter goes down.

[Warning Track Power]

I don't agree. There are just too many guys on the cusp or already into their major league careers to be stunted at this stage by bringing in another mediocre veteran. I do believe that it's really a 2 man race for the 5th starter job between Thornburg and Smith, with the odd guy out, going to the pen. Remember Thornburg, when he wasn't starting last year compiled some good relief outings. Nelson, Hellweg, Burgos will be starting in Nashville and available should those guys falter or if and when another starter goes down.

Thornburg was fantastic in a SP role and I would handicap him as the #5. I really like Thornburg and hope he flourishes in the SP role, but if he does not, he could settle in nicely as a 7th or 8th inning guy. He, Smith, Kintzler and Henderson could make up a nice core of bullpen pieces if that is the route the Brewers choose to go.

[yoshii8]

I think Smith will make rotation as the #5 starter w/ Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada and Peralta.

[igor67]

I'd handicap things myself as a 3 man primary race between Smith, Nelson, and Thornburg. Odds are 1 of our starting pitchers starts on the disabled list. So I'd guess there is a decent chance all 3 make the roster in some fashion out of spring training or end up on the DL. Hard to say which ends up being more appealing having the lefty in the bullpen or in the rotation.

[LouisEly]

Let's not get hung up on SP vs. RP roles for young pitchers. The Cardinals have not been shy about putting their young arms in the bullpen (Lynn, Kelly, Rosenthal, Martinez, etc.) instead of starting at AAA and it doesn't seem to have hurt their development.

[Bombers]

Reflection time

Will Smith has been amazing

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithwi04-pitch.shtml?mobile=false

 

Baseball ref says arby eligible in 2016. Crazy steal.

[gregmag]

Yeah, plus we sold high on Nori. Thank you Khris Davis.

[Outlander]

If the Brewers want him back next year probably wouldn't take a whole lot now. Wouldn't be a horrible backup if they don't pick somebody else in trade before free agency. Have to give Melvin credit on this one as pretty much everybody nationally and the royal media thought the Royals won the trade hands down.

[MadScientist]

Surprised that Aoki's power has fallen off a cliff. Zero HR's and slugging down over 100 points from 2 years ago.

 

Before the Garza signing it looked like Smith might be in the rotation, so I don't see how a starter for an expendable OF would be a big win for the Royals. Rephrasing it as a starting OF for a reliever makes it sound better, but Smith pitched well last year so the trade seemed pretty reasonable to me.

 

Smith being outstanding this year and Aoki being down makes it look like a Brewers steal.

[502 to Right]

The stars fell into place on this trade so far. Davis has played well (after a poor start), Will Smith has been a stud, and Aoki has been a disappointment for the Royals.

[reillymcshane]

It's hard to see Nori struggle, because I like the guy so much. He just seems like he loves playing.

 

With regard to his hitting struggles this year, I suspect that the league simply catching up with him. I think in 2012 he caught people by surprise, and made some people pay for it by pounding a few HRs. I notice Nori takes what pitchers give him. If they pitch him away, he slaps it into left. If they come in on his hands, he yanks it down the line. I just think the league has figured out what not to do with him. Now he's just a slap hitter.

 

The trade is certainly looking good for Milwaukee. Smith appeared to be a serviceable player, but has really blossomed in a full time relief role. There were hints of that last year, but it was such a small sample. Kudos to the team for recognizing something special in Smith.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

What is the long-term role for Will Smith?

 

When he was obtained, there had been thought that he could be a starting pitcher. But would the team move him out of his dominant reliever role? Is Smith perhaps a closer-in-waiting?

[Warning Track Power]

If the Brewers want him back next year probably wouldn't take a whole lot now. Wouldn't be a horrible backup if they don't pick somebody else in trade before free agency. Have to give Melvin credit on this one as pretty much everybody nationally and the royal media thought the Royals won the trade hands down.

I wouldn't mind targeting him at the deadline to fill the 4th OF role if KC decided to play Maxwell and Dyson in the OF over him.

[FVBrewerFan]

What is the long-term role for Will Smith?

 

When he was obtained, there had been thought that he could be a starting pitcher. But would the team move him out of his dominant reliever role? Is Smith perhaps a closer-in-waiting?

 

.791 OPS vs RHB. As good as he's been, tough to put him in the rotation or closer role with that number. Just for something to think about, Zach Duke is .532 OPS vs RHB- actually better than vs LHB.

 

Now, some of that is skewed a little since Smith has been asked to face the better part of the line-up more often, but .791 is still up there. His numbers actually scream LOOGY, but I think he can be more than that. If he learns how to get RHB out, he can definitely take on either the closer role or starting rotation.

 

As for Aoki, sorry to see him injured. With Cain, Escobar, and now Aoki I really pull for KC. Even healthy though, this was a nice trade for the Brewers.

[Baldkin]

As for Aoki, sorry to see him injured. With Cain, Escobar, and now Aoki I really pull for KC. Even healthy though, this was a nice trade for the Brewers.

 

You forgot one former Brewer.... (or two, if you include their bench coach)

 

[HiAndTight]

What is the long-term role for Will Smith?

 

When he was obtained, there had been thought that he could be a starting pitcher. But would the team move him out of his dominant reliever role? Is Smith perhaps a closer-in-waiting?

 

.791 OPS vs RHB. As good as he's been, tough to put him in the rotation or closer role with that number. Just for something to think about, Zach Duke is .532 OPS vs RHB- actually better than vs LHB.

 

Now, some of that is skewed a little since Smith has been asked to face the better part of the line-up more often, but .791 is still up there. His numbers actually scream LOOGY, but I think he can be more than that. If he learns how to get RHB out, he can definitely take on either the closer role or starting rotation.

 

As for Aoki, sorry to see him injured. With Cain, Escobar, and now Aoki I really pull for KC. Even healthy though, this was a nice trade for the Brewers.

 

Righties hit .235 against him last year for a .680 OPS, he fared better vs right handers as a 22 year old starter than he did lefties(though he struggled vs both as is expected for a young starter) and he's fared well vs right handers through his minor league career as he's actually put up better numbers vs RHB than LHB at times coming up.

 

His SLIGHTLY inflated numbers this year vs righties might have something more to do with a BABIP roughly 100 points higher than it was last year vs right handers.

 

I don't think his numbers "scream," loogy, but even if they did at this point, this is a really good example of getting a little bit too caught up with numbers on BBRef and ignoring a players actual talent and real life ability.

 

95 on the black with a dominant slider, a good curve, and a change he can and does use as a starter, he's got everything you need to start. And as his BABIP regresses back towards the norm(.290-.300..though with a improved GB rate and low LD pct, his may well end up being lower).

 

Really though, this is just trying to find something negative about Smith at this point. He's been outstanding and is very tough on right handers. He clearly has the ability to be a starter or a closer.