Norichika Aoki traded to Kansas City Royals for LHP Will Smith

[endaround]

Aoki was about average for a MLB corner outfielder. If you look at it as trading one of our starters like Fiers for an average corner outfielder this is a good trade for the team receiving the pitcher.

 

Its more like trading Peralta or Nelson for a below average starting RFer than Fiers. Same age but Smith has had more success at AAA.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly, looking at the Bullpen for 2014, you have to feel quite reassured it can be of strength for 2014 and beyond and not feel it's a patchwork year to year deal like it has been recently.

I certainly feel the opposite about the bullpen. There isn't one player currently likely to be in it with any kind of moderate to lengthy history of success aside from maybe Gorzelanny. Imo it could wind up being a strength just as easily as it could wind up being really bad.

 

While true, I'm glad we appear to be throwing cheap guys against the wall to see who sticks than sticking millions of dollars into the bullpen for "proven" guys. We have no shortage of guys to turn to if some of the guys we have fail.

I agree with this completely. I just hope they don't go out & spend on bullpen arms as the offseason goes on.

[MNBrew]

Funny how thinking about Smith makes it easier to focus on the number of decent young arms that could comprise the staff in general and specifically the bullpen. While I only envision a big-time addition via trade if the perfect deal falls into their laps (I'd put the likelihood at <2%), I could still see them plucking the right available FA arm later in the winter if that guy's available. But there seems to be less of a need than there was before. They still have Gorzelanny, who has lots of experience and who's proven better out of the 'pen in recent years.

 

The guy I specifically wonder if they'll sign later is K-Rod. Not your ideal citizen, perhaps, but his only real success over the past 3 years has been in MIL, and he's seemed to enjoy his time here and respect his teammates & the organization. I'm not sure that's ultimately the best guy to add, but it makes some sense, especially given that they've talked about adding someone with closing experience.

[Roderick]

If Davis proves to be an upgrade over Aoki and Smith proves to be a contributor in some way than this deal makes plenty of sense. If Davis just stinks up the joint DM will wish we still had Aoki.

 

If Davis stinks up the joint (or gets injured) you still have the option of trying Gindl and then Schafer and you still could play Halton out there if needed to. I would rather gamble with the young guys then play Aoki and get the same as he did last year (as he gets older and is in his last year of contract). They could also bring in your veteran Edmunds/Kotsay to spring training to see if they have something left to provide insurance.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Love this deal because the Brewers were able to get value by trading away a middling veteran player they weren't going to keep around after 2014, and they picked up a left-handed pitcher with years of team control. I'll take Khris Davis playing most every day in the lineup over Aoki, and that's what this trade allows while also shifting Braun over to right field.

 

That said, I think this team continues to be too right-handed at the plate - would love for the Brewers to plug in a LH power hitter at 1B everyday that's a better option than Francisco. Always have liked Hart in the past but those leg injuries have to be concerning - would rather rely on a younger option that can hit from the left side, and I think Morris still has to prove he can be impactful in the majors.

[logan82]

Aoki was about average for a MLB corner outfielder. If you look at it as trading one of our starters like Fiers for an average corner outfielder this is a good trade for the team receiving the pitcher.

 

Its more like trading Peralta or Nelson for a below average starting RFer than Fiers. Same age but Smith has had more success at AAA.

I didn't want to overstate it. I think Peralta is overstating it a bit. Still, we probably came out ahead on this deal unless Smith ends up as a reliever.

[reillymcshane]

Nice article at Fangraphs about Smith and his potential:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brewers-land-will-smith-and-his-possible-breakthrough/

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

After reading through most of the posts, I only have a few thoughts.

 

Mainly, I'm with most of you. Not an attention-grabbing trade from a fan's perspective, but also not an unreasoned one.

 

On giving up Aoki: I loved watching Nori and will miss him. BUT, as others have said, he's also exactly the guy you trade away. The offense just got younger, and, if Davis succeeds, Nori might not be missed from a number's perspective. A gamble, sure, but I think a worthwhile one.

 

On getting Smith: Did the team get enough? I'm optimistic about one thing. This team needs pitching, and I think Smith can solidify it either as a reliever OR a back-end starter. With the offense I think this team can be capable of, getting better at 4/5 is nothing to sneeze at. Is he better than Thornburg/Nelson? Maybe not. But he might be, and that's a good thing. If this offense has five guys who can pitch 6 giving up 3, that can be effective.

 

We'll see. I understand it. I think it could work out well. I don't think it will ever be labeled a disaster so let's see where it goes.

[dacbrewers]

This has been mentioned a couple of times by different posters so I just wanted to point out 1 more time that Smith does not have a big arm. I already posted his pitch f/x numbers and scouting report which pretty much line up exactly with each other in another post.

 

Every pitcher throws harder out of the pen in 1 inning appearances than they do as a starting pitcher.

 

He's decent MLB value for Aoki, but let's not overstate what he has the potential to be.

 

As for those asking if any poster would give up a top prospect for Aoki? That's not the really the issue, no one was thinking the Brewers could get a top 50 prospect for 1 year of Aoki, he's nothing special. The point is why do the Brewers need more arms which profile as back of the rotation starters? We'll have a AAA rotation loaded with those guys for the most part. I'd go all the way down to the DSL if I had to find a guy who I thought had some upside but all that highly rated yet. Getting a prospect with upside is not the same as getting a "top prospect"... those 2 ideas can and often merge, but in this case they don't. An upside guy from the Brewers system would be a guy like Tyler Cravy who has a big arm but has always had a problem with the strike zone but had nice year as reliever this season. He's not on any prospect radars anymore, nor is he an Archie Bradley. He's just a guy with some intrigue that might turn into a steal.

 

This deal is fine if Smith a good reliever, 5 years of a cheap bullpen guy for 1 year of an aging 4th OF, that's decent value.

 

TC07, DSL, seriously? I have a hard time fathoming trading for an "under-the-radar" equivalent of high-A Tyler Cravy (who is just three days younger than Smith, by the way, and could simply be plucked in Rule 5). Trading isn't solely about outsmarting someone.

 

I thought you'd be doing cartwheels over this deal (maybe not cartwheels, but jumping jacks, anyway), and you know I respect the heck out of you, but I'm starting to wonder if Doug Melvin could ever truly please you.

 

Does anyone have numbers on how a pitcher performs when changing leagues from national to american or vice versa? Pitcher or Hitters advantage?

I think the trade is good. Maybe Smith figured some things out last year that will help him going forward.

[Thurston Fluff]

Every soft tossing RHP dosn't have the ability to be Marcum, certainly a couple of guys around baseball will be, but all of the rest are going to be back of the rotation or bullpen guys.

 

Why bring up what RHP when Smith is a lefty? There are a lot of lefties who have good major league careers with 90 MPH fastballs.

Smith fills a need. And he still has some upside. But I don't see him catapulting us into contention. I hope he does - but I don't think he'll have that kind of impact.

 

I seriously doubt a 32 year old RF with average production with one season left on a contract gets you any player who catapults us into contention. You are either overrating how good Nori was or underestimating the value of guys who can single handedly catapult a team into contention. Even if he is a few years away.

[reillymcshane]

 

I seriously doubt a 32 year old RF with average production with one season left on a contract gets you any player who catapults us into contention. You are either overrating how good Nori was or underestimating the value of guys who can single handedly catapult a team into contention. Even if he is a few years away.

 

I guess my post was too literal. No one sees Smith putting us into contention. My point is that the team isn't good enough to contend right now. If Smith proves to be a solid, back-of-the-rotation guy, we are still average, at best.

 

We have spent an asset (Aoki) to acquire a guy (Smith) who provides value when we need it least (now), and will unlikely provide big value in the future.

 

I would have rather spent the asset on a player that (potentially) provides more value than Smith - but 3-4 years from now, and thus help us actually be contenders at that time.

 

Getting low level minor leaguers is a huge risk. Perhaps too much risk. It's not like anyone is going to trade us Buxton for Aoki. But perhaps you can find a lower level guy that can turn into a Corey Hart or Paul Goldschmidt - guys who weren't highly thought of at the lower levels. Again, finding that gem in the rough is difficult. And perhaps the guy simply flames out, then you wasted your asset on nothing. But that's the risk you take.

 

Of course, the state of the team is a person's opinion. I don't think we are that good. Perhaps if the planets align and everything goes right, we can contend next year. But that's not usually what happens. For every bad thing that happens, a good thing occurs. I think the team's talent level is very average. We need to take every chance to infuse the minor league system with guys with upside - guys who can become more than just average in the majors. Again, that's my opinion.

[brwrsfan]

Off topic some, but I DO think K-Rod is on the Brewers radar. I think he'll look to close, not find a job and return here to be a setup guy and failsafe for Henderson.

 

He seemed to genuinely like it here and was successful here in the past. And it's not like teams are beating down the door to sign him..

[brewers4eric]

I liked Aoki and I hate to see him go. He brought a unique hitting skill set that we haven't had at the top of our lineup for awhile. Without him, I think we'll revert to more of a power heavy strikeout prone outfield. I'm not going to pass any judgement on Smith at this time. Run him out to the bump and let's see what he can do.

 

Go Brewers.

[gregmag]

I've been out of touch, so when I first saw this trade, I wasn't sure what to think. As I read through the thread, I got increasingly happy. I think the arguments folks have made for this trade make a ton of sense.

 

Nori was out; that was fairly clear. I'm big on Davis, but we also have Gindl and Schafer. Keeping Nori around would have been pointless.

 

Smith isn't some middling bullpen asset. He's a young, team-controlled lefty who throws about 90, is still figuring things out, has shown signs of progress, and pitched effectively as a AAA starter this year. Some folks have argued for taking more of a longshot, and others have responded that longshots are risky. If you plot ceiling and floor on a curve, I think Smith lands in a very attractive spot on that curve. He looks like at worst (assuming he doesn't get hurt or just fall apart) a strong bullpen lefty who can get some righties out. He looks like a decent shot for the back of the rotation, and he has mid-rotation upside. That works for me.

 

As for people who think we're overloading the "middling starter" population, you can never have too many of these guys. Some of them will get hurt or not perform; look at last year, when we were this close to sending a peanut vendor out there.

 

We have no leadoff hitter, although Segura could figure out how to draw some walks. Well, we aren't a great team; we're missing a bunch of things.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki was about average for a MLB corner outfielder. If you look at it as trading one of our starters like Fiers for an average corner outfielder this is a good trade for the team receiving the pitcher.

 

Its more like trading Peralta or Nelson for a below average starting RFer than Fiers. Same age but Smith has had more success at AAA.

 

I'd put Smith more on the the level with Thornburg ironically the guy who'll will be his number one competitor for that last rotation spot. Each has shown enough success at the major league level and all through the minors (save Thornburg's 2013 Nashville numbers) that he goes into 2014 with a roster spot that's his to lose and quite possibly a rotation spot. Smith (7th) and Thornburg (3rd), weren't necessarily on people's radar as top picks are, but each successfully navigated through the minors fairly quickly and earned their way to the big leagues at fairly young ages, Smith at 22 and Thornburg at 23. That certainly separates them from Fiers certainly for their ceilings. Both guys could have very nice careers as relievers too but with starting pitching at such a premium teams would be shortsighted not to give them shots if possible at becoming starters. Having both just increases the chances of hitting the jackpot with a guy like that. The more young, pre-arby starting pitching you have the more money available to lock up players elsewhere, something the Brewers will need to do when the Lucroy's and Gomez's contracts are up.

 

That Smith is a lefty and therefore rarer, makes his value even higher.

[JohnBriggs12]

Would those criticizing Melvin for not getting enough for the great Nori Aoki, then at least acknowledge that Melvin deserves credit for signing Aoki for next to nothing in the first place? Melvin essentially got Aoki out of thin air. That alone speaks to his acumen doesn't it? Not only that, it should give comfort that he can find adequate replacement for him as well.

[fondybrewfan]

What about Nelson though. He might have the most upside of all three. He acquitted himself quite nicely in limited time at MIL last year and I don't think he has a whole lot left to prove at AAA either. But as of now there is only one spot for Nelson, Thornburg, and Smith. I just don't want Nelson rotting away in AAA and he is definitely a starter who shouldn't be stuck in the bullpen long term. Thornburg and Smith seem more suited for the bullpen than Nelson.

[molitor fan]

I just hope we have more trades this offseason so we can get more posts from brewers4eric and gregmag.....

 

If we can sign Hart and Khris Davis does a decent job in left I like a healthy lineup we can put out there, and our rotation has some potential

[Fear The Chorizo]

not worried at all about a perceived lack or rotation spots for some younger arms knocking on the MLB door - seems like some had similar concerns last offseason even before Lohse was signed, and look how that turned out...there was significant debate over who should be viewed as the rotation #2, Fiers or Estrada.

 

these hot stove concerns have a way of taking care of themselves, especially with younger or unproven pitching at the big league level. at the end of the day talent always wins out with all other things being equal, so a pitcher like Nelson or Hellweg shouldn't be worried about the Brewers acquiring a guy like Smith. Smith adds to their pitching depth and quality, but in no way would having him on the big league roster prevent Nelson or Hellweg from earning a rotation spot if they truly deserve it.

[reillymcshane]

 

If we can sign Hart and Khris Davis does a decent job in left I like a healthy lineup we can put out there, and our rotation has some potential

As pointed out the Logan Morrison trade thread - Hart would be a nice story, but this team really needs a left handed bat. Right now, we just have Scooter (assuming he starts at 2B). 1B is the only place open.

 

In 2013, we had the best OPS in the NL when facing lefties. When facing righties, it was 9th.

 

Hart would be great on one level, but I think the team really needs to find a left handed bat to fill 1B.

[xisxisxis]

The GM handbook circa 1977 clearly states that you have to have at least 1 LH starting pitcher. Dougie's just doin' what he knows.....

[logan82]

One better way to trade Aoki may have been to use him as an add on in another trade to get a better player back.

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

If we can sign Hart and Khris Davis does a decent job in left I like a healthy lineup we can put out there, and our rotation has some potential

As pointed out the Logan Morrison trade thread - Hart would be a nice story, but this team really needs a left handed bat. Right now, we just have Scooter (assuming he starts at 2B). 1B is the only place open.

 

In 2013, we had the best OPS in the NL when facing lefties. When facing righties, it was 9th.

 

Hart would be great on one level, but I think the team really needs to find a left handed bat to fill 1B.

 

Why would any of what you said matter if Hart came back to the Brewers and the Brewers regulars were healthy? We would have the best offense in the NL and likely baseball. Now imagine adding Khris Davis to that equation. A guy who Doug Melvin said publicly can hit 25+ HR's and drive in 85 RBI's, and were willing to trade Aoki to give him that chance. I say put some lefty's in your bench for reserves and that's good enough.

[FVBrewerFan]

We would have the best offense in the NL and likely baseball.

 

Wow, now there's some hot stove optimism.

[Thurston Fluff]

The GM handbook circa 1977 clearly states that you have to have at least 1 LH starting pitcher. Dougie's just doin' what he knows.....

 

I seem to remember him saying he will compete for the job not that he had it locked up.

 

What about Nelson though. He might have the most upside of all three. He acquitted himself quite nicely in limited time at MIL last year and I don't think he has a whole lot left to prove at AAA either. But as of now there is only one spot for Nelson, Thornburg, and Smith. I just don't want Nelson rotting away in AAA and he is definitely a starter who shouldn't be stuck in the bullpen long term. Thornburg and Smith seem more suited for the bullpen than Nelson.

I doubt there ever is such a thing as to many good young pitchers. Especially in a farm system supposedly lacking in major league prospects. Nelson has all of 83.1 innings of AAA ball. He posted respectable but not eye pooping numbers over that time. He is not going to be rotting away in AAA. He will be learning the things he needs to be a better major league pitcher when his time comes.