Norichika Aoki traded to Kansas City Royals for LHP Will Smith

[TheCrew07]

To build off of that, so what? Who else had a big arm? Jose Capellan, Manny Parra, Nick Neugebauer, Jeff Bennett. A big arm is all well and good but you need other things to go along with it.

 

You really want me to defend the importance of having stuff and especially an out pitch for guys with average velocity? Aren't we all educated enough as fans to not be having this conversation anymore? Can Smith be a legit #3? Sure, every player has a chance to overperform and make the sum greater than the individual parts, but how many players actually do? The Brewers have an incredibly long list of average to below average talent players whom people were counting to maintain their success, here's a few off the top of my head: Clark, Helms, Suppan, Looper, Bush, Davis, Wolf, and now Lohse.

 

In the end of course all that matters is how the player actually performs, but how many of those guys were able to maintain? The guys do that are the outliers... the exceptions to the rule, and I don't understand posters whom always run to the comparison of some Hall of Fame or even All-Star worthy player. Every soft tossing RHP dosn't have the ability to be Marcum, certainly a couple of guys around baseball will be, but all of the rest are going to be back of the rotation or bullpen guys. Furthermore how long are soft tossers able to keep their careers going?

 

As for the players you chose, Capellan never had stuff even his FB velocity proved to be a mirage, I'm on record as being extremely disappointed in Parra, Neugebauer had stuff but was pushed too far too fast by the Brewers who prematurely ended his career, and what does Bennett have to do with anything? He was a reliever long before the Brewers acquired him, at least Capellan had Atlanta's pitching reputation behind him.

 

Regardless I'm not hating on Smith, I'm just not looking or hoping for him to be anything more than a decent bullpen guy. If Smith turns into our #3 that will say a heck of lot more about the Brewers rotation than it does about him.

[molitor fan]

Especially with lefties, there is a big difference between a " big arm" and a "live arm".....Jimmy Key was a left that has a similar profile to Will Smith - and Key had electric stuff that was under 93. Will Smith has a funky delivery with breaking balls that come from different slots....it is not a fluke that lefties just can't hit him....

 

The fact that lefties are clueless against him should not send him into the situation lefty purgatory some posters are putting him into......Smith had an up an down 23 year old rookie season and was filthy as a reliever the last two months of the year, as his k rate was nearly 14 per nine innings during that time span....

 

Whether he can be a lefty workhorse in the rotation is up to argument, but the fact is that he looks like a innings eating horse at 6'5 and 250.

 

I think this was an excellent trade at first glance.....a little confused at how it could be ridiculed even though I really enjoyed Aoki.

[brwrsfan]

It sounds like at the very worst, we've found a lefty specialist that will be under the Brewers control for the next 4-5 years. While it's a tad of a minor role, it's a role the Brewers seem to have struggled to find the last few years. I'm hoping for more, but that seems like the worst case scenario. He's only 24 and could certainly develop more.

 

Is that fair for one year of Aoki? Time will tell I guess, but at least we know that the Brewers are getting something they CAN use in the bullpen immediately if they want to do so.

[reillymcshane]

There's a difference between 'high' and 'higher'. I don't think anyone expected a high upside prospect for Aoki. But I don't think it's out of the line to think we could have gotten a player with higher potential than Smith if we had been willing to take a guy in the low minors compared to a current major leaguer.

 

How high a ceiling does and A ball player have to have before he is guaranteed to ever make it to AAA? There is a lot more risk to go along with younger players. They had an average major league corner outfielder with one year lef ton his contract. They needed bullpen help in general and a lefty overall. IIRC he is going to be only one of two lefties on the 40 man roster. They got a decent prospect whose chances of contributing in the majors is a lot higher than virtually any A ball player Aoki could land us.

It's absolutely a gamble to go for a younger player. No one is a guarantee. The less experience, the younger the player, the more risk involved. I even said there's a good chance an A ball guy - even one with lots of upside - doesn't make it. But with risk comes reward. I know it's a big risk, since so many young guys flame out. But I like the idea of adding someone who might (even if it is an outside chance) become special.

 

Smith fills a need. And he still has some upside. But I don't see him catapulting us into contention. I hope he does - but I don't think he'll have that kind of impact.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would just like to add that the Brewers also have a Will West in the MiLB system. For some reason, I enjoy that we now have Will West & Will Smith.

[SRB]

This suggests they are pretty high on Khris Davis, no?

 

Will Smith doesn't seem that exciting other than his amusing name, but this wasn't a bad trade. Especially if they think he can be a viable starter. Just take a look at the absurd money mediocre SP are getting on the free agent mark this year.

 

You could easily replace Aoki multiple times over for the money it would take to sign a passable 24-year-old SP through free agency.

[igor67]

Young cheap pitching depth with options that can start or relieve, I like the deal quite a bit. I don't hold illusions that Smith will become a huge steal but I like turning a free acquisition into more useful talent at a low price. The flexibility is important because we have enough young guys that it is not out of the realm of possibility to have 'too many' if we had a good health year.

[MNBrew]

Young cheap pitching depth with options that can start or relieve, I like the deal quite a bit. I don't hold illusions that Smith will become a huge steal but I like turning a free acquisition into more useful talent at a low price. The flexibility is important because we have enough young guys that it is not out of the realm of possibility to have 'too many' if we had a good health year.

My feelings in a nutshell. I really liked Aoki and really didn't want to see him go. Khris Davis holds a lot of promise but still represents a gamble. But the bottom line is that we very definitely need more good, young arms, and this deal netted them one.

 

The more good, young arms you have you have, the better chance that some will develop into "core" type players.

 

I like the deal. For a team in the Brewers' situation, you have to manage your risks -- meaning you're going to have to continually be working young players into the mix in some part or parts of your roster. You can only pay so many big-buck contracts at a time. Some of your roster will be experienced role players. Some will be pre-arby guys, and some of those guys will be "kids" just coming up, some of whom will flop and some of whom will succeed. It's a delicate balance, but it's so crucial for a team like the Brewers to maintain. What you have to do is be willing to give the young guys a chance.

 

We'll never know what Melvin's other options were. To criticize his approach assumes a knowledge of his options and details of his trade talks that we flat-out don't -- and won't -- fully have. Reading through this thread, it's funny how obvious it is that some folks were bound to trash Melvin no matter what trade he made for Aoki unless it netted us David Price along with a below-market 5-year extension, getting Tampa to take Rickie Weeks in the deal, as well, without swallowing any of his contract.

[fondybrewfan]

If Davis proves to be an upgrade over Aoki and Smith proves to be a contributor in some way than this deal makes plenty of sense. If Davis just stinks up the joint DM will wish we still had Aoki.

[brewcrewdue80]

Wow, where was I when this trade happened? it certainly wasn't mentioned on MLBTR by 7am this morning?

 

Anyway. I'm not upset overall to this trade. MLBTR's writeup on Smith suggests he can get Righties out besides dominating Lefties. Doesn't sound like a closer...maybe not even a setup 8th inning guy, but a very solid 7th inning guy who may be able to pitch multiple innings. I don't think we've really had that 7th inning guy recently. Henderson as a Rookie was close while Blowford and KRud was losing games for us in 2012. I get a feeling that KRod's trade and return with Axford may have Melvin thinking best way to acquire a need in trade is with valuable BP guy. Now we have Thornburg and Smith to likely compete for Trade candidate of 2015/16. Depending on what happens with our options players.

 

You know Smith will contribute for the Brewers. So that's better than a fringe 100-150 prospect who never pans out. And having him for at least 4 more years I'm okay with it.

 

For the Royals, I have been stating from around day 1 of Aoki's trade rumors that they need him. He's perfect Leadoff for them whom they kept playing 2 guys that just weren't ready for it. They need to trade Butler though now or Hosmer. Hosmer is more the core piece long term so Butler has to be moved. It'll be interesting how that pans out. Because they've essentially made it a must for them to move him and that must devalues him in my opinion vs. being we'll move him if our asking price is met.

 

I see Segura leading off with either Braun,Lucroy,Gomez,Gennett #2. Really I feel like Lucroy should be the #2 moving forward with Davis.

Segura,Lucroy,Braun,ARam,Davis,Gomez,Gennett,Francisco is how I picture the lineup going.

[danzig6767]

Young cheap pitching depth with options that can start or relieve, I like the deal quite a bit. I don't hold illusions that Smith will become a huge steal but I like turning a free acquisition into more useful talent at a low price. The flexibility is important because we have enough young guys that it is not out of the realm of possibility to have 'too many' if we had a good health year.

 

I agree and especially like that we got a pitcher who is still young, cheap, and under team control for five more years.

 

If Smith proves he can't cut it as a starter, but ends up being a good and cheap relief pitcher for a number of years, i'm fine with that for a nothing special Aoki on his last year. If even better Smith can cut it as a starter for multiple years, even if it's just as a solid say number 3 or 4 starter, that would be a steal for Aoki.

 

My worst fear about Aoki getting traded was that he'd end up getting moved for a more veteran bullpen guy who had zero chance to be a starter and wasn't as cost controlled as Smith is.

[danzig6767]

If Davis proves to be an upgrade over Aoki and Smith proves to be a contributor in some way than this deal makes plenty of sense. If Davis just stinks up the joint DM will wish we still had Aoki.

 

There is always some risk when handing a starting job to a prospect/player for their first time, but this move had to to made regardless if Davis ends up not being as productive as the team hopes for.

 

A team like the Brewers have to regularly cycle in younger players from the farm system and let them sink or swim so long as those guys have shown skills in the minors/brief stretches in the majors that they can produce. Davis at least has the chance to be an upgrade over what Aoki can produce, he's seven years younger, and under team control for a long time. He needed this opportunity to be the opening day starter in LF and keeping Aoki as insurance instead of trading him doesn't make sense to me, especially given we have other backup OF options.

[sheetskout]

I know this is semi-off-topic, but does anyone have an idea at what the payroll sits at right now and what our projected ceiling is right now?

[brewcrewdue80]

I know this is semi-off-topic, but does anyone have an idea at what the payroll sits at right now and what our projected ceiling is right now?

 

Yeah I was going to put off the top of my head that I thought with Badenhop and Aoki they were sitting at around 87-88mil.

BRef lists the team's payroll as 83.7mil.

 

What's the projected ceiling? I imagine 88-92mil. They may just set it here at 84mil. Leaving wiggle room should they actually compete as they tell us they can.

[paul253]

I'm not sure why they'd consider him as a starter. He is clearly a better pitcher as a reliever than a starter.

[trwi7]

I know this is semi-off-topic, but does anyone have an idea at what the payroll sits at right now and what our projected ceiling is right now?

 

$73.55 million is committed to Ramirez, Weeks, Braun, Lohse, Gallardo, Gomez, Gorzelanny and Lucroy. Arbitration should be reasonable for Francisco and Estrada and then we have a bunch of near minimum guys like Henderson, Maldonado, Kintzler, Bianchi, Segura, Wooten, Davis, Peralta, Schafer, Figaro, Hand, Gennett and probably one or two more that I'm forgetting.

 

So we're probably around $83 million right now.

[endaround]

I'm not sure why they'd consider him as a starter. He is clearly a better pitcher as a reliever than a starter.

Because he was a very good starter last year in Omaha.

 

10 starts 3.26 ERA 58 innings 65Ks

 

Oliver projects him to be slightly better than Peralta as a starter.

[Brewer Fever]

Many young pitchers have initial success in the bullpen while struggling as a starter. And believe it or not, some of them eventually grow and mature into solid starters down the line. Shocking I know.

[reillymcshane]

I know this is semi-off-topic, but does anyone have an idea at what the payroll sits at right now and what our projected ceiling is right now?

 

Cotts lists Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, Lohse, A-Ram, Carlos G., Gorzelanny and Lucroy taking up $73,550,000.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz1FL3X6KldYXIoGOHXpv6A&output=html

 

Figure about $2.5 million for Estrada - that's roughly $76 million.

 

That's only 9 players, so you need to pay $500,000 to 16 other players - that's $8 million (some guys might make a little more).

 

That puts us around $84 million. And that's without injuries. If we lose someone, we'll need to call up someone from the minors. That's will add some salary on during the year. Maybe not a ton - but perhaps a million or two dollars.

 

Also, we owe A-Ram a $4 million buyout if we don't pick up his 2015 option.

 

We owe Weeks a $1 million buyout if we don't pick up his 2015 option.

 

I don't know if those are considered part of 2014 or 2015 salaries.

 

Also, if it matters, $6 million of A-Ram's salary is deferred (until when, it doesn't say).

[brewtank34]

I seem to remember a lot of discussion during the year that RRR totally mismanaged the BP. Any fear that he will continue to do the same this year...thus giving this kid waaaaay too many innings in the beginning of the year due to the thought that "hey, he can pitch multiple innings, so let's give him the opportunity to prove himself.' ??? and then he gets burnt out by June.

 

Not sure. Can anyone confirm my fear of this? Other than that, I like the trade. The kid sounds like an asset that we definitely will benefit from.

[DHonks]

Smith is a high strikeout lefty as both a starter and reliever. I like the trade as it gives us a quality, young, cheap lefty

[RockCoCougars]

I don't like this deal one bit. Are the Brewers planning on going with an all RH hitting lineup, or does this signal that they see Gennett as a suitable replacement at the top of the order? Also, is it me, or does Melvin tend to buy high on relievers (And yes, despite what Melvin said today, I see him as strictly a reliever.). Smith certainly doesn't seem to have a ton of upside, especially enough to give up a solid lead off hitter who was probably in the top half of NL starting outfielders last year... and who is also dirt cheap this season. If I hear the term 'cost-controlled' again, my head will explode. Why does this deal remind me of the Vina/Acevedo deal so much?

[MNBrew]

Acevedo never would've been a starter. Smith has had enough developmental success to show that that's still a possibility.

 

It's a cherry-picked response, but Johan Santana had two very good years mostly out of the bullpen in spite of late-season success as a starter before the Twins would finally concede him a spot in their Opening Day rotation. Point: Smith may prove he's only a reliever, but I'm not buying for one second that that's all he'll be until he proves it.

[Patrick425]

Seems like a decent deal to me. Judging by his K rate, I'm assuming he's a hard thrower.

 

I guess my only concerns would be:

 

A) As mentioned - who leads off now and

B) I'm concerned that Khris Davis is being overrated. Hopefully I'm wrong about that.

Not too concerned with B because Gindl is a decent option if Davis doesn't pan out.

 

 

You forgot to put that in blue.

[endaround]

Why should it be in blue? Gindl out hit Aoki last year in Milwaukee.