Norichika Aoki traded to Kansas City Royals for LHP Will Smith

[jerichoholicninja]

I guess my only concerns would be:

 

A) As mentioned - who leads off now and

 

 

Why does it seem like everyone is against Segura leading off? The guy makes contact, has the speed for it, and doesn't strike out a lot.

 

Why does everyone seem to think a lead off hitter is a thing? You just put someone with a high OBP at the top of the order.

[Baldkin]

I googled this Will Smith fellow, and quickly found out he performs the rap music for the New Orleans Saints.

 

Who knew?

[Roderick]

 

I'm underwhelmed as well. I think we could've done better.

 

I second (or third) this. Although I was FOR trading Aoki, I would have rather waited to see if we could have had something better at the deadline. How many 4/5-types do we need battling it out for mediocrity.

 

We did better than I thought we would. Aoki was nothing special. The only possibility of getting a better deal was to wait until the trading deadline and hope a contender was in need of specifically a corner OF that would be a leadoff batter. Then you had to hope that the contender liked Aoki.

 

I'll take this now and be happy about it.

[logan82]

I would have preferred a higher upside prospect for Aoki. But we seem to be locked into a player who can help now. That mindset limits the player we got for Aoki.

Sure seems that way. I also would have preferred a younger higher upside guy.

 

If Smith turns out to be a decent starter this is a great trade. If he ends up as a bullpen guy this trade kind of stinks. It doesn't make us significantly better now or in the future. Maybe this was the best Melvin could get for Aoki.

[TURBO]

I'd be interested in knowing if Aoki was shopped, or if Melvin just took the first offer presented...

[jjfanec]

Here is the question. Would any of you give up a high upside minor leaguer for Aoki? I highly doubt it. But some are acting like Doug could have gotten one

[logan82]

Probably find out later other GM's didn't even know we he was available.

[Ennder]

His control has improved over the past 3 years which does tend to lead to more K%, he is also throwing more sliders. I think Smith is most likely a viable starter, he pitched well at AAA in that role last year and while he only has 2 plus pitches he does have 4 total. He probably could be a middle of the rotation guy if his control gains are for real and if he ever develops his change up he could actually be better.

 

Smith made 10 starts with the Storm Chasers last season, and he had excellent results. In 59.1 innings, he struck out 65 batters, walked just 18, and had an ERA of 3.19

 

 

 

http://kingsofkauffman.com/2013/11/19/will-smiths-successful-season/

[Roderick]

Probably find out later other GM's didn't even know we he was available.

 

If any GM didn't know Aoki was available, regardless if DM officially told them, then they aren't doing their job. It was pretty obvious we were making room for Davis and Aoki was on the block.

[splitterpfj]

Aoki's a nice player, but he's not a stud, and he was gone in a year anyway. The Brewers need to try Davis, to see if he can cut it as a MLB starter - no one has ever had too many power bats. Segura should do just fine in the leadoff spot, to me, there is no question there at all.

 

Those things all make sense to me, the question is, how good is Smith? He had a weak year as a starter, and a strong year as a reliever, but he's got a big arm, and he's under team control for a while.

 

To me, this isn't the sexy move fans always hope for, but it's worth trying...we'll find out.

[Ennder]

 

Those things all make sense to me, the question is, how good is Smith? He had a weak year as a starter, and a strong year as a reliever, but he's got a big arm, and he's under team control for a while.

 

 

I hope the Brewers realize that these two things aren't connected. He was a fundamentally different pitcher last year and it wasn't just the move to the bullpen. It started as a starter in AAA and he changed roles to fit the teams needs for what they hoped was a playoff run. I would expect him to come to spring training as a starter and keep a move to the bullpen as a plan B.

[logan82]

He was a reliever in AAA last year as well.

 

If any GM didn't know Aoki was available, regardless if DM officially told them, then they aren't doing their job. It was pretty obvious we were making room for Davis and Aoki was on the block.

That was a reference to the Lawrie trade.

[MadScientist]

I love this deal. What's not to like? He was almost exclusively a starter in the minors, so he certainly could be a starter at some point. Meanwhile, he's a heck of a good reliever and he fills a need in that area. He's not really a loogy as he can go multiple innings, but he's been devasting on lefties. They hit just .157 off him last year. Plus, he's just 24.

 

Thanks Nori for two excellent years! Good luck with KC.

Agreed, a young, cheap lefty with starter potential that the Brewers can control for 4 years for 1 year of a good but not superstar outfielder is a fair return. If you were in the market for Aoki, how much would you really give up for him? Probably not much more than a 'decent but replaceable' MLB, a 'needs a change of scenery' guy, or maybe a 'hit or miss' prospect.

[pitchleague]

will we also be trading a pallet or two of Aoki bobbleheads for the 2014 season since we have no need for them anymore?

 

Overall, I'm kind of torn with the trade. I like Aoki and think he's a strong bench player and outfielder to fill in if/when Khris Davis hits .180 thru May 15th. But Smith also has some decent upside, too. The Royals must have liked him because he always seemed to be the first guy called up every time they needed an arm this season (doing my 2k13 franchise, he was on the transaction list practically every other week.)

 

Sayonara, Norichica! I shall miss you!

[CheeseheadInQC]

I love this deal. What's not to like? He was almost exclusively a starter in the minors, so he certainly could be a starter at some point. There's been a few lefties that have done that in recent years. Meanwhile, he's a heck of a good reliever and he fills a need in that area. He's not really a loogy as he can go multiple innings, but he's been devasting on lefties. They hit just .157 off him last year. Plus, he's just 24. Had 143 K's over 122 combined innings last year.

 

He really did dominate lefties last year. Combined 46% K rate and better than 12:1 strikeout to walk rate against left-handed hitters between AAA and the majors. And his big league numbers were actually the better of the two in both regards.

[reillymcshane]

Here is the question. Would any of you give up a high upside minor leaguer for Aoki? I highly doubt it. But some are acting like Doug could have gotten one

 

There's a difference between 'high' and 'higher'. I don't think anyone expected a high upside prospect for Aoki. But I don't think it's out of the line to think we could have gotten a player with higher potential than Smith if we had been willing to take a guy in the low minors compared to a current major leaguer.

 

Smith had a nice 2013, but remove that and he was pretty average in the minors (and bad in 2012 in the majors). Scouting reports had him as a back of the rotation guy or reliever as his upside. He has decent tools, but nothing exceptional.

 

Some people seem to be saying he's got #3 potential after his 2013 campaign. Personally, I think that's a big leap. I think it would be hard for people to slot him above Thornburg and Nelson.

 

All that said, I think Aoki could have fetched a guy with higher potential than Smith. Snagging a prospect is A ball is much more of a crapshoot than a guy in the majors (or AAA). But that's the risk you take. The guy could flame out (odds are he would). But at this point in the franchise, I'd rather potentially have a good player in 3-4 years than an average one right now.

 

If Smith reaches his potential - that of a back end of the rotation starter - he's still a good player to have. And the trade is fine. But I'd rather have nabbed a guy in A ball with more upside than a back of the rotation starter. How good of a prospect could we have gotten is entirely debatable. But I think someone with more upside than Smith.

[TheCrew07]

...but he's got a big arm...

 

This has been mentioned a couple of times by different posters so I just wanted to point out 1 more time that Smith does not have a big arm. I already posted his pitch f/x numbers and scouting report which pretty much line up exactly with each other in another post.

 

Every pitcher throws harder out of the pen in 1 inning appearances than they do as a starting pitcher.

 

He's decent MLB value for Aoki, but let's not overstate what he has the potential to be.

 

As for those asking if any poster would give up a top prospect for Aoki? That's not the really the issue, no one was thinking the Brewers could get a top 50 prospect for 1 year of Aoki, he's nothing special. The point is why do the Brewers need more arms which profile as back of the rotation starters? We'll have a AAA rotation loaded with those guys for the most part. I'd go all the way down to the DSL if I had to find a guy who I thought had some upside but all that highly rated yet. Getting a prospect with upside is not the same as getting a "top prospect"... those 2 ideas can and often merge, but in this case they don't. An upside guy from the Brewers system would be a guy like Tyler Cravy who has a big arm but has always had a problem with the strike zone but had nice year as reliever this season. He's not on any prospect radars anymore, nor is he an Archie Bradley. He's just a guy with some intrigue that might turn into a steal.

 

This deal is fine if Smith a good reliever, 5 years of a cheap bullpen guy for 1 year of an aging 4th OF, that's decent value.

[patrickgpe]

yeah i hope the aoki bobbleheads for next season aren't in production yet.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let me address several issues people have brought up.

 

1. He didn't do well as a starter in 2012. Response: He was 22-23 years old and really needed more seasoning in the minors but the Royals were painfully short of starters. Still he had 8 quality starts out of 16 facing teams with a DH, and four times made it through 7 innings. In other words, he showed flashes much like Peralta has done in his time in the big leagues. It's not like he was Manny Parra who was struggling in a rotation at age 26 or 27 after multiple chances.

 

2. Why do the Brewers need another 4-5 starter/reliever? Response: They needed to add depth to their rotation and bullpen. Sure they could have gone out and signed a veteran for that role, but even 4-5 guys are commanding $5-7 million as FA, and when you spend that much you are pretty much committed. The Brewers can now let Smith compete with Thornburg for the 5th spot with the other guy a valuable bullpen piece. In fact I could see a situation where both Thornburg and Smith essentially share the 5th spot, with the starter in any given series depending on the team they are facing. Having a lefty to face the Reds is a plus.

 

If I were a Royal fan, I'd be worried that Smith is a mid rotation guy and that in a year or two, Aoki will be with the Red Sox or Tigers and Smith will be putting up double digit wins in Milwaukee.

[jerichoholicninja]

...but he's got a big arm...

 

This has been mentioned a couple of times by different posters so I just wanted to point out 1 more time that Smith does not have a big arm.

 

To build off of that, so what? Who else had a big arm? Jose Capellan, Manny Parra, Nick Neugebauer, Jeff Bennett. A big arm is all well and good but you need other things to go along with it.

[bjkrautk]

A little sad that Aoki has been dealt (he was a family favorite), but given his contract situation and the outfield logjam after Khris Davis' breakout performance last year....it's hardly unexpected.

 

 

As a starter or as a non-LOOGY LH reliever who'll be under team control for quite some time, it makes a good deal of sense to me. If we get a performance that's anywhere near the 6.14 K:BB ratio he had last year, Smith is going to be a solid contributor.

[TooLiveBrew]

Umm. Not sure how to react to this trade. I don't hate it but I certainly am not thrilled with it either.

[502 to Right]

I wouldn't write Will Smith off as a SP just yet. A poor age 22 rookie season in MLB as a starting pitcher is fairly common, even among starters who go on to be pretty darn good.

[monty57]

Bottom line: As far as getting an "MLB ready" player, this is about as much as could have been hoped for, as Aoki wasn't bringing back a good "MLB ready" player.

 

In the trade forums yesterday, I said that I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers traded Aoki for a "proven" reliever, so I'm not surprised that's what they got. I am glad he's 24 and not 34, and if he can actually start, it would make it better, but I would be shocked if he's not in the bullpen. Melvin said yesterday that he was content going into the season with Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta and Estrada #1-4 and the prospects fighting it out for the #5 spot. I doubt Smith beats out his competition for #5, so while he could see some starts due to injury, he's probably going to be a few spots down the depth chart to even see those starts.

 

As others have said, I would rather have seen Melvin go for the best prospect he could find, even if it meant getting a guy in the low-levels, but I knew he wouldn't. With the current obligations they have, and with the steadily declining attendance numbers over the past two seasons (down 540,268 from 2011 to 2013) the Brewers need as many MLB contributors as possible making league minimum. This trade allows them to shave around $1MM off the 2014 payroll. It may not seem like much in today's baseball world, but they need that savings, and they need pre-arby guys on the MLB roster... even if they're so-so players.

 

The "silver lining" is that if they do stay this course, they should be in better financial shape next offseason, and we'll have had another year to see how these pre-arby guys pan out at the MLB level. This is basically rebuilding without letting the fans know you're rebuilding in an attempt to try to keep ticket sales as high as possible. I hope they're able to pull it off, but it'll be tough.

[Thurston Fluff]

There's a difference between 'high' and 'higher'. I don't think anyone expected a high upside prospect for Aoki. But I don't think it's out of the line to think we could have gotten a player with higher potential than Smith if we had been willing to take a guy in the low minors compared to a current major leaguer.

 

How high a ceiling does and A ball player have to have before he is guaranteed to ever make it to AAA? There is a lot more risk to go along with younger players. They had an average major league corner outfielder with one year lef ton his contract. They needed bullpen help in general and a lefty overall. IIRC he is going to be only one of two lefties on the 40 man roster. They got a decent prospect whose chances of contributing in the majors is a lot higher than virtually any A ball player Aoki could land us.