Blow it Up?

[PrinceFielderx1]

Aoki plus a pitching prospect or two for a Starting Pitcher seems feasible. Hope it isn't Jimmy Nelson

 

I know it was such a small sample size, but Jimmy Nelson in his 10 IP with Milwaukee looked likes he controlled all of his pitches and had swing and miss stuff. He's miles ahead of Hellweg. I would hope a team would fancy Thornburg or Hellweg more or both. However, you have to be willing to give up a lot for an established SP, and I like Thornburg enough to where I'd give up Nelson.

[paul253]

On this board it's so easy & convenient to shoot down anyone's optimism (which in this case I share with PFx1), but there can easily be just as much folly in the persistent and blanket negativism.

So it's ok to make all these assumptions that had everything gone perfect then things would be fine but we can't assume that had we had Corey Hart everything else, or at least most other things wouldn't have played out the way they did? I'll be the first to admit if everything goes right all season this team is fine.....for now. Unfortunately that's not how things work, especially when you rely on a team with guys mostly in or past their prime. Optimism is one thing. But basing that optimism on absolutely everything going right all season seems a bit unrealistic.

 

Also, how easy it to say "yeah we just need one more pitcher"? If getting that pitcher were so easy we wouldn't be in the mess we are in. Melvin has been trying for a decade to draft or sign a #1 or a #2 and he has yet to do so. Unless he plans on trading away what's left of the farm it's not going to happen.

 

No, adding Corey Hart and having Braun and Ramirez back healthy makes us the best offense in baseball when you also include guys like Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy.

 

Again, this is assuming that a 35 year old fairly injury plagued player, or a guy coming off major knee surgery can both stay healthy all year. Or that Segura, who hit .241 in the second half, and Gomez, who hit .265 in the second half, both not only return to first half form but keep up the numbers all season. Or that Braun is same guy without the PEDs as he was with them. To me this is just too many IFs to rely on.

 

To me it seems like looking only at the positives and completely ignoring the negatives, which is what you guys are doing, sets up this franchise for mediocrity. Beside, even IF Hart and Ramirez come back healthy and stay that way all year everyone knows they are both short term solutions. Who are our third basemen and first basemen in 2015 and beyond? Do we just continue to sign aging vets and hope for the best? Because that sure seems like the strategy we've been adopting the past few seasons.

[PrinceFielderx1]

On this board it's so easy & convenient to shoot down anyone's optimism (which in this case I share with PFx1), but there can easily be just as much folly in the persistent and blanket negativism.

So it's ok to make all these assumptions that had everything gone perfect then things would be fine but we can't assume that had we had Corey Hart everything else, or at least most other things wouldn't have played out the way they did? I'll be the first to admit if everything goes right all season this team is fine.....for now. Unfortunately that's not how things work, especially when you rely on a team with guys mostly in or past their prime. Optimism is one thing. But basing that optimism on absolutely everything going right all season seems a bit unrealistic.

 

Also, how easy it to say "yeah we just need one more pitcher"? If getting that pitcher were so easy we wouldn't be in the mess we are in. Melvin has been trying for a decade to draft or sign a #1 or a #2 and he has yet to do so. Unless he plans on trading away what's left of the farm it's not going to happen.

 

No, adding Corey Hart and having Braun and Ramirez back healthy makes us the best offense in baseball when you also include guys like Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy.

 

Again, this is assuming that a 35 year old fairly injury plagued player, or a guy coming off major knee surgery can both stay healthy all year. Or that Segura, who hit .241 in the second half, and Gomez, who hit .265 in the second half, both not only return to first half form but keep up the numbers all season. Or that Braun is same guy without the PEDs as he was with them. To me this is just too many IFs to rely on.

 

To me it seems like looking only at the positives and completely ignoring the negatives, which is what you guys are doing, sets up this franchise for mediocrity. Beside, even IF Hart and Ramirez come back healthy and stay that way all year everyone knows they are both short term solutions. Who are our third basemen and first basemen in 2015 and beyond? Do we just continue to sign aging vets and hope for the best? Because that sure seems like the strategy we've been adopting the past few seasons.

 

I go on what a player did during the course of the entire season. There's always going to be extended down moments during a season. Ramirez was fine in previous years except last. I'm not concerned about it. I said this before and I'll say it again I'm not going to factor in injury's when projecting what a team will do prior to the season. I just look at there career norms. I don't see nearly as many "if's" as you do.

[fondybrewfan]

I sure as heck wouldn't blow this team up. The offense should be fine assuming Braun is his normal self. Getting a competent 1B like Hart and going from Weeks to Gennett should improve the offense. Khris Davis will hopefully add a power bat. Aram would be another major plus to the offense but you just don't know about him healthwise. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the offense to be a top 5 NL offense.

 

Pitching is another story. Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Estrada is a pretty good 1-4 but obviously there isn't really an ace in the group. They will keep us in most games. Thornburg or Nelson as the 5th starter should be pretty good as 5th starters go. The bullpen is a crapshoot from year to year. I would think they would be capable of being a middle of the road pitching staff depending on the offseason moves for the bullpen and possibly a starting pitcher.

 

Having a potentially very strong offense and middle of the road pitching staff doesn't scream total rebuild to me; and we aren't even to December yet. DM almost always makes offseason moves to try to improve the big league team. And if history tells us anything; DM will address what he percieves to be the team's biggest shortcoming. Obviously pitching was the biggest issue in 2013.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I sure as heck wouldn't blow this team up. The offense should be fine assuming Braun is his normal self. Getting a competent 1B like Hart and going from Weeks to Gennett should improve the offense. Khris Davis will hopefully add a power bat. Aram would be another major plus to the offense but you just don't know about him healthwise. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the offense to be a top 5 NL offense.

 

Pitching is another story. Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Estrada is a pretty good 1-4 but obviously there isn't really an ace in the group. They will keep us in most games. Thornburg or Nelson as the 5th starter should be pretty good as 5th starters go. The bullpen is a crapshoot from year to year. I would think they would be capable of being a middle of the road pitching staff depending on the offseason moves for the bullpen and possibly a starting pitcher.

 

Having a potentially very strong offense and middle of the road pitching staff doesn't scream total rebuild to me; and we aren't even to December yet. DM almost always makes offseason moves to try to improve the big league team. And if history tells us anything; DM will address what he percieves to be the team's biggest shortcoming. Obviously pitching was the biggest issue in 2013.

 

I agree completely.

[Oldcity]

Maybe they can punt on 2014 and build for 2015?

 

-Trade Gomez for 2 top 100 pitcher prospects or 1 top 10 prospect

 

No one is dealing a Jameson Taillon, or Noah Syndergaard-type for Carlos Gomez. Gold glove or not.

Those types have been traded for players worse than Gomez with a lot less team control than the Brewers have with Gomez. Fairly recently, too.

[Oldcity]

Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Estrada is a pretty good 1-4...

 

No, it isn't. It's pretty bad, actually.

[MNBrew]

Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Estrada is a pretty good 1-4...

 

No, it isn't. It's pretty bad, actually.

Could be good, bad, or neutral. If they pitch like they did in the 2nd half, it's a very solid-to-strong 1-4. If they pitch like they did in the 1st half, then they're not.

 

I'll rephrase fondy's sentiment: They could be a very good 1-4, though we all know they've also shown they can be the opposite.

 

I, for one, think there are more reasons to expect good than bad -- not that it's a slam dunk, but I'm optimistic.

[paul253]

I just look at there career norms.

 

Even though someone like Ramirez is clearly on the back end of his career? And Corey Hart's career numbers don't include seasons after a major knee surgery? Also, do you look at everyone's career norms or just that players who did bad? Gomez was a .285/.338/.506 last year but his career numbers over 7 seasons are .255/.305/.406. Are you expecting him to put up career norms next year too?

 

I don't see nearly as many "if's" as you do.

 

It's not that I see a lot of "if's". It's that I see three really big ones:

 

1) IF this team stays healthy (which they didn't last year)

2) IF everyone who had a bad year (Weeks, Ramirez, Gallardo, Hart) comes back and improves and

3) IF the young players (most notably Peralta, Segura, Estrada and a not-as-young Gomez) build off of last year as opposed to stalling or taking a step back

 

IF all three things happen than yes, this team may be ok.....next year. But then, since there is no long-term plan, you almost have to start over again in 2015 by most likely replacing Hart and Ramirez.

 

For what it's worth I don't think you need to blow this team up either. I just think you need to make one or two really big moves to get the ace type pitcher we have yet to develop in over a decade with Melvin at the helm.

[sheetskout]

Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Estrada is a pretty good 1-4...

 

No, it isn't. It's pretty bad, actually.

 

 

Kind of all hinges on Gallardo I guess. We get the Gallardo of two years ago instead of last year, not bad.

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo in the 2nd half of 2013 posted a 3.09 ERA. He'll be fine

[TooLiveBrew]

Gallardo in the 2nd half of 2013 posted a 3.09 ERA. He'll be fine

Curious as to how this logic gets applied to Segura. Should we be concerned because his bad half-season was the second half?

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo in the 2nd half of 2013 posted a 3.09 ERA. He'll be fine

Curious as to how this logic gets applied to Segura. Should we be concerned because his bad half-season was the second half?

 

Maybe, I don't know. I think that the point of view with Segura that he was in his first full MLB season and had played winter ball is a logical explanation for his 2nd half not being as good as his first half. I would imagine that part of it might've been pitchers learning how to get him out.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gallardo in the 2nd half of 2013 posted a 3.09 ERA. He'll be fine

Curious as to how this logic gets applied to Segura. Should we be concerned because his bad half-season was the second half?

 

Maybe, I don't know. I think that the point of view with Segura that he was in his first full MLB season and had played winter ball is a logical explanation for his 2nd half not being as good as his first half. I would imagine that part of it might've been pitchers learning how to get him out.

With Gallardo, the thing that jumps off the page is his decrease in velocity & related decrease in K rate. That also matched up with 'the eye test' for last season.

 

Whether the WBC played a big role in his bad start to the season, or if it was related to the passing of his mother and/or subsequent DUI in the offseason, or all of the above... hard to say. But he certainly didn't look like he had the same talent level he's shown in previous seasons.

 

I guess my short answer is that I'm not convinced that he'll be fine just because his last 11 starts, as a whole, were good. I don't think he's toast, or as bad as the 4.80+ ERA he compiled in his first 20 starts last year... but I can't just accept that 'he's ok' based on 11 starts. If he'd been showing re-gained velocity in those starts, I'd be much more inclined to feel confident.

[MNBrew]

With Gallardo, the thing that jumps off the page is his decrease in velocity & related decrease in K rate. That also matched up with 'the eye test' for last season.

 

Whether the WBC played a big role in his bad start to the season, or if it was related to the passing of his mother and/or subsequent DUI in the offseason, or all of the above... hard to say. But he certainly didn't look like he had the same talent level he's shown in previous seasons.

 

I guess my short answer is that I'm not convinced that he'll be fine just because his last 11 starts, as a whole, were good. I don't think he's toast, or as bad as the 4.80+ ERA he compiled in his first 20 starts last year... but I can't just accept that 'he's ok' based on 11 starts. If he'd been showing re-gained velocity in those starts, I'd be much more inclined to feel confident.

I can't stand the WBC -- in part because it's contrived and in part because it tends to mess up more guys than it helps. My hunch all along was that the WBC messed Gallardo up big-time. Ditto for Estrada. I distinctly remember thinking at the time that Gallardo really needed a break to get out of his rut -- just clear his head & rest his arm a bit. . . . And after each had a DL stint -- a break I thought they both needed, though Estrada's seemed unusually long -- they came back & pitched quite well. I don't think that was a fluke. I think they each finally "got right," pitching like they did before the WBC. That's why I'm somewhat optimistic that they'll both be fine.

[brewcrewdue80]

PFX1:Lohse was better than Gallardo last season and you guys are complaining about that deal? seriously guys.

 

Lohse had 1. 1 single season in 12 where he was better than a 3WAR. in 2012. Majority of his "Good" seasons he was just above 2WAR. He was 33 coming off the highest IP in 1 season EVER for him.(Something that has been mentioned about Gallardo's ability that the IP have taken it's toll) He's costing the team 11mil or 1/9th the teams total payroll. And cost the team their draft pick. Sure, with History that pick may net 0WAR for his career. But at the same time he could have turned in to a team friendly, low cost 24WAR player during his time in Milw. Lohse's history would indicate that at best we get 7WAR for 3years at 33mil. I will always complain about the Lohse signing due to losing the draft pick unless A: We trade Lohse for a top 75 Prospect before he departs. Or B: None of these 10 players amount to 7WAR+ in their careers.

17. Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson, SS, East Central CC

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga

20. Detroit Tigers: Jonathon Crawford, RHP, Florida

21. Tampa Bay Rays: Nick Ciuffo, C, Lexington (S.C.) HS

22. Baltimore Orioles: Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.)

23. Texas Rangers: Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Oral Roberts

24. Oakland Athletics: Billy McKinney, OF, Plano (Texas) West HS

25. San Francisco Giants: Christian Arroyo, SS, Hernando HS (Brooksville, Fla.)

26. New York Yankees: Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame

 

And heck just to give Lohse a C option: He pitches Cy Young-like 2012 with an 18 or more win season under 3ERA with 210+IP.

 

Still, it is hard for me to even consider changing my opinion towards Lohse because the team is looking very old, with zero, 0 top 100 prospects in its system to step up and replace the aging players leaving in 1 or 2 seasons. And knowing that we are pretty much the worst marketed team in tv for payroll help means the gap for us to sign any kind of "Band Aid"(like Jhonny Peralta by Stl at 14mil!! PER) is going to be non-existent. It's been said over and over again but Tampa's way of building through the draft as well as trading their stars for premium prospects when the stars are in high value. Versus at no value(Corey Hart,Weeks,ARam,Gallardo) is where the FO needs to follow in.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I just look at there career norms.

 

Even though someone like Ramirez is clearly on the back end of his career? And Corey Hart's career numbers don't include seasons after a major knee surgery? Also, do you look at everyone's career norms or just that players who did bad? Gomez was a .285/.338/.506 last year but his career numbers over 7 seasons are .255/.305/.406. Are you expecting him to put up career norms next year too?

 

I don't see nearly as many "if's" as you do.

 

It's not that I see a lot of "if's". It's that I see three really big ones:

 

1) IF this team stays healthy (which they didn't last year)

2) IF everyone who had a bad year (Weeks, Ramirez, Gallardo, Hart) comes back and improves and

3) IF the young players (most notably Peralta, Segura, Estrada and a not-as-young Gomez) build off of last year as opposed to stalling or taking a step back

 

IF all three things happen than yes, this team may be ok.....next year. But then, since there is no long-term plan, you almost have to start over again in 2015 by most likely replacing Hart and Ramirez.

 

For what it's worth I don't think you need to blow this team up either. I just think you need to make one or two really big moves to get the ace type pitcher we have yet to develop in over a decade with Melvin at the helm.

 

Staying helthy is always a big iff to any team. I have reasons why I don't mention it.

 

Ramirez had a better second half and was injured during the first.

 

The third thing you mention is a possibility and an if, but considering their talent level I'm not worried and actually some of them I think will do better.

 

The career norms I look at are tell me Ramirez, Braun, Lucroy will be pretty damn good. As for Gomez he might lean back towards his career norms, but he's in his prime and I wouldn't think it will to drastic.

[logan82]

Lohse was better than Gallardo last season and you guys are complaining about that deal? seriously guys.

If you are only looking at performance you are completely missing the point of why people think it was a bad signing. It was a bad signing because of what we gave up and the talent on the team.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Lohse was better than Gallardo last season and you guys are complaining about that deal? seriously guys.

If you are only looking at performance you are completely missing the point of why people think it was a bad signing. It was a bad signing because of what we gave up and the talent on the team.

 

No I'm not missing anything.. This team has a lot of talent on it and most of it we missed for the majority of last season. Like I said all we need is 1 SP, bullpen help, and Hart and we will be fine. Based on how good Lohse has been should we have a good season in 2014 you'll all be changing your tunes, and I think it's pretty likely.

[Roderick]

PFX1:Lohse was better than Gallardo last season and you guys are complaining about that deal? seriously guys.

 

And cost the team their draft pick. Sure, with History that pick may net 0WAR for his career. But at the same time he could have turned in to a team friendly, low cost 24WAR player during his time in Milw. Lohse's history would indicate that at best we get 7WAR for 3years at 33mil. I will always complain about the Lohse signing due to losing the draft pick unless A: We trade Lohse for a top 75 Prospect before he departs. Or B: None of these 10 players amount to 7WAR+ in their careers.

17. Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson, SS, East Central CC

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga

20. Detroit Tigers: Jonathon Crawford, RHP, Florida

21. Tampa Bay Rays: Nick Ciuffo, C, Lexington (S.C.) HS

22. Baltimore Orioles: Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.)

23. Texas Rangers: Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Oral Roberts

24. Oakland Athletics: Billy McKinney, OF, Plano (Texas) West HS

25. San Francisco Giants: Christian Arroyo, SS, Hernando HS (Brooksville, Fla.)

26. New York Yankees: Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame

 

Still, it is hard for me to even consider changing my opinion towards Lohse because the team is looking very old, with zero, 0 top 100 prospects in its system to step up and replace the aging players leaving in 1 or 2 seasons. And knowing that we are pretty much the worst marketed team in tv for payroll help means the gap for us to sign any kind of "Band Aid"(like Jhonny Peralta by Stl at 14mil!! PER) is going to be non-existent. It's been said over and over again but Tampa's way of building through the draft as well as trading their stars for premium prospects when the stars are in high value. Versus at no value(Corey Hart,Weeks,ARam,Gallardo) is where the FO needs to follow in.

 

You forgot another option. The Brewers take the money they would have spent on the first rounder and instead use it on the international draft. Didn't they give two kids $800K each? They hadn't done that in previous years. It seems to me that those two kids are our first round draft pick. Neither may ever make it, but it was no certainty the first round pick would either. So to me I don't get all wound up about losing the draft pick.

[fondybrewfan]

I think the Brewers are in much better shape than most other people think; but really we all need to wait until at least January before we decide if the team has enough talent to challenge the Pirates, Cards, and Reds. So much can happen yet. We atleast have to find out who will be playing 1st.

[Warning Track Power]

Lohse was better than Gallardo last season and you guys are complaining about that deal? seriously guys.

If you are only looking at performance you are completely missing the point of why people think it was a bad signing. It was a bad signing because of what we gave up and the talent on the team.

 

No I'm not missing anything.. This team has a lot of talent on it and most of it we missed for the majority of last season. Like I said all we need is 1 SP, bullpen help, and Hart and we will be fine. Based on how good Lohse has been should we have a good season in 2014 you'll all be changing your tunes, and I think it's pretty likely.

I have to echo PFx1 on this one. Going into 2013, you just came off a 83 win season and had non-suspended Braun, healthy Aramis and Hart only projected to be out a few weeks to begin the season. If all things had fallen right for the Brewers with those 3 players, plus adding a high end #3 or low end #2 like Lohse to pair with a pre-2013 high end #2 in Gallardo and you are likely looking at an improved team from 2012 season and a likely wild card contender. However, when you take the 3-4-5 out of any team for 101, 70, 162 games like the Brewers had in 2013 with Braun, Ramirez and Hart and a totally out of the blue down season for Gallardo, you are destined for a 74-88 type season. Think the Cardinals make a World Series run with Holliday-Craig-Molina all missing that amount of time?

 

Having Braun-Ramirez-Hart all for 145ish plus games and I think you are looking at a drastically different 2013.

[logan82]

They played over their talent in 2012. We also lost Greinke and Marcum without getting any decent replacements. There was no reason to expect the 2013 team to be much better than an 81 win team even with Lohse. That is why the signing and what we had to give up was just a bad move.

 

At best all the things being brought up add 10 wins. That only puts us at 84 wins. Then you have to take out some regression of Gomez, Davis, and Segura. Davis almost replaced the loss of Braun so it isn't like not having Braun hurt us much. Actually Davis out hit Braun this year and had almost as much WAR in 10 fewer games.

 

Dramatically different, sure but still not a playoff team. Managing a baseball team and hoping everything goes right for you is like wishing on rainbows.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the Brewers are in much better shape than most other people think; but really we all need to wait until at least January before we decide if the team has enough talent to challenge the Pirates, Cards, and Reds. So much can happen yet. We at least have to find out who will be playing 1st.

What is "much better shape"? And is whatever state they're in good enough to feel like the team has a strong chance of contending in 2014?

 

I guess I see a fairly weak pitching staff, from top to bottom, and at least two regular key offensive players (if they re-sign Hart) in Hart & Ramirez whose durability is a huge question mark. I struggle to see how this team can even be projected in a best-case scenario for any more than 80-85 wins. I think, more realistically, we're currently in the 75-80-ish range... and that's not just a piece or two away from contention.

 

I do agree, however, that there's still a lot of time between now & the 2014 season. I'm just not a believer that the club is close enough to legit contention that enough can be done to change things between now & then.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Losing the players we lost mainly in the middle of the line-up costed us 10-15 wins. A ton of wins. That is us missing some serious production. With a healthy line-up which is what we should have had heading into this season Gomez's numbers should actually increase. That what a great line-up will do to everybody in it.

 

I said this before and I'll say it again the Brewers rotation dramatically improved in the second half, so much so that it was BETTER than the Cards, so how a poster can be cautious with what they expect with the rotation next season is beyond me. We should be ecstatic right now by what we have prospects included, and by adding another Lohse type it will be complete. Gallardo did lose velocity and that's what he struggled with in the first half, but he learned to pitch, which is what all players who lose that over powering fastball have to do and he had a very good second half. That is what we should expect moving forward.

 

There's plenty of reasons to be very hopeful, now Doug Melvin needs to do his job and keep this team in tact and add a starting pitcher and get depth.