Blow it Up?

[harrydalton]

They have too many good young players to blow it up. On the other hand, I agree that competing in their division the next couple years will be tough.

 

I would move older players for the right deals and I would certainly be disinclined to add big veteran contracts. Put more money in amateur scouting.

 

I also agree that they need to do a better job scouting and drafting pitchers. Jungmann and Bradley are a prime example if not getting much bang for the buck. Nevertheless, I think they've made some improvement that way under Seid.

 

They also need to do a better job identifying Latin American players and maybe going after a really good one every 3-4 years.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Mark A will never allow this team to be blown up. It's really that simple.

[Oldcity]

Unfortunately, I think this is correct. Gomez, Aoki, Gallardo, and possibly once he reestablishes value, Braun should be dealt within the next year. The Brewers have by far the worst minor league system in the division. They need to acquire impact young players instead of the system of "just guys" they have currently.

 

They can target guys close to the bigs like they did with Greinke, so the turnaround won't have to take 5+ years this time.

[PrinceFielderx1]

No reason to blow it up. In 2015 when Lohse, Ramirez are gone the Brewers will still have a core of Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Braun, Gallardo (resign), and Peralta and maybe even Gennett. The Brewers could trade one of them and re-stock the farm in addition to the next 2 draft years, and open up another 5+ year window to compete.

[paul253]

The Brewers could trade one of them and re-stock the farm in addition to the next 2 draft years, and open up another 5+ year window to compete.

 

They could but will they? What have Mark or Doug ever done to suggest they will? And as far as the draft goes. There's a draft every year and quite frankly we've been pretty bad at evaluating talent in the guys we've picked. Again, what have they done that makes you believe it will be any different the next few years? The Brewers have a fundamental problem of being unable to properly evaluate and develop talent, especially pitching. Until that changes this team will never compete on a year to year basis.

[3and2Fastball]

There's a draft every year and quite frankly we've been pretty bad at evaluating talent in the guys we've picked.

 

Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Yovanni Gallardo are all Brewers draft picks and All-Star MLB players. Weeks has overall been a disappointment but was a All-Star, as was Hart. It hasn't all been misses with the draft picks

[trwi7]

There's a draft every year and quite frankly we've been pretty bad at evaluating talent in the guys we've picked.

 

Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Yovanni Gallardo are all Brewers draft picks and All-Star MLB players. Weeks has overall been a disappointment but was a All-Star, as was Hart. It hasn't all been misses with the draft picks

 

Really? Go back 8-10 years to prove that we're good at drafting when pretty much everyone associated with the draft back then has moved on?

[TURBO]

Losing that 1st round pick on Lohse hurts... I still hate that signing, especially when competing didn't happen with Lohse on the roster.

 

That decision is going to hurt us for a long time to come...

[brewmann04]

well lets see what the pick turns out before we say it was a total failure.

[brewcrewdue80]

There's a draft every year and quite frankly we've been pretty bad at evaluating talent in the guys we've picked.

 

Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Yovanni Gallardo are all Brewers draft picks and All-Star MLB players. Weeks has overall been a disappointment but was a All-Star, as was Hart. It hasn't all been misses with the draft picks

 

Yes how many different drafts was that over? (checked 6drafts) 2009 Stl Cardinals got Shelby Miller 1st round, Joe Kelly 3rd rd., Matt Carpenter 13th rd., Trevor Rosenthal 18th rd., Matt Adams 23rd rd. So there's 4 all stars in the making and 1 very good player in ONE Single draft for the total of the 5 you pointed out...Let's add Lucroy and make it 6.

Also, hitting on a #2,#5, and #7 draft picks aren't something to raise kudos to the draft/scout team. You're picking from the cream of the crop and it's very hard to miss on your selection.

 

The real problem is 1st rd. selections since Braun that have produced for Milwaukee: None. Zero for 14.

For Stl: Colby Rasmus, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Kolten Wong(future), Michael Wacha, even add Replacement level Pete Kozma.

6 players in 8 drafts...not 1 selected higher than 13th. Their scouts and draft boards, as well as player development are getting it done.

 

Just look at the list of players there for Stl. Being high for 5 selections from 8 years ago or more? Meanwhile Stl. churns out solid selections at least every couple drafts. We should be seeing a JJ Hardy or Yovani Gallardo draft pick every 2 years. With tossing in a sleeper selection deeper in the draft like Hart. It's just not happening

[SoupTown]

Has anyone ever had the guts to say to Doug: 'based on results, good to very good players onto the MLB roster, from your drafting... your drafting and development... to be frank... is terrible; what are you doing and what will you do to address this'

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers could trade one of them and re-stock the farm in addition to the next 2 draft years, and open up another 5+ year window to compete.

 

They could but will they? What have Mark or Doug ever done to suggest they will? And as far as the draft goes. There's a draft every year and quite frankly we've been pretty bad at evaluating talent in the guys we've picked. Again, what have they done that makes you believe it will be any different the next few years? The Brewers have a fundamental problem of being unable to properly evaluate and develop talent, especially pitching. Until that changes this team will never compete on a year to year basis.

 

I can totally see Doug Melvin trading 1 of our core players in 2015 for top prospect or prospects. That's quite the core I mentioned above.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Losing that 1st round pick on Lohse hurts... I still hate that signing, especially when competing didn't happen with Lohse on the roster.

 

That decision is going to hurt us for a long time to come...

 

That signing is going to allow us to compete the next 2 years for a wild card spot. Without it we would need 2 top SP's this off-season not 1, and with our farm system it wouldn't be possible. That signing prevented a rebuild/blow up.

[trwi7]

That signing is going to allow us to compete the next 2 years for a wild card spot.

 

We all saw how well that worked last year.

[sheetskout]

Maybe they can punt on 2014 and build for 2015?

 

-Trade Gomez for 2 top 100 pitcher prospects or 1 top 10 prospect

 

No one is dealing a Jameson Taillon, or Noah Syndergaard-type for Carlos Gomez. Gold glove or not.

[PrinceFielderx1]

That signing is going to allow us to compete the next 2 years for a wild card spot.

 

We all saw how well that worked last year.

 

The Brewers will add bullpen arms and trade for a good SP, and sign Hart. They will be fine next season.

[TheCrew07]

That signing is going to allow us to compete the next 2 years for a wild card spot.

 

You clearly don't understand the other side of this argument if you are making blanket statements.

 

Assuming perfect health with some good breaks in close games this team is maybe a mid 80s winner... Is that what the eternally optimistic are hoping for? Repeating the excellent best case scenario that was the 2011? A couple of key players were on the DL in April and that was it, smooth sailing the rest of the year.

 

I'll appeal one more time for people to take a macro view of the division. Who has ascending youth? Which teams are already better? For example on the MLB forum someone brought up that Beltran is leaving STL, but so what? They can replace him with Oscar Taveras who's one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues. Obviously yes I know 2013 was a lost season with family issues and injuries for him, but he has the potential to be a stud.

 

The Cardinals may not win 97 games, but they aren't falling off all that far and are getting more youthful. They are what posters like me were hoping the Brewers would become... mostly perennial contenders with the occasional down year. They have more WS wins since DM took over the Brewers than the Brewers have WS appearances in the history of the franchise.

 

Pittsburgh will be able to insert a legit impact pitcher into the rotation (excluding Cole who's already up) each year for the next 2-3 seasons. There will likely be some growing pains with their youngsters, but I would expect them to compete for the division every year in the near term.

 

Cincinnati will maintain over the next 2-3 years until they hit the stage the Brewers are at now with a bunch of aging veterans and a thin farm system. Cingrani will be up to stay for the Reds, they still have Stephenson coming, and I think Hamilton will be a very productive player at least until he loses a step. After those 3 I'm not so high on the rest of their prospects. Corcino falling off horribly really hurt them, and on the plus side Ervin is intriguing though not toolsy.

 

Finally Chicago is on the verge of having a super line-up, they have more legit hitting prospects than any team I can remember since I started following the minors; Soler, Baez, Almora, Vogelbach, Olt (still a believer), and Bryant. Not to mention Alcantara and Candelario who I've also been impressed with. The Cubs are horribly thin on pitching, right there with the Brewers in comparison with the rest of the division, but the difference is the Cubs can buy pitching in FA to go with the bats when they mature.

 

The NL central has become one of if not the best division in baseball, many of us have been saying for years that there is very strong management around the division, it's been a steady climb for the Central for years. The Brewers are clearly the 4th best team in the division, and have a much tougher road to that wild card than the 2nd place team in any other NL division. When the division was "down" we were 3rd place team as often as not, and now that Jack Z's scouting department who drafted Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Gallardo, and so on are gone, there are no more impact potential prospects to trade for a short term pitching. Melvin's "best" moves have been bought with prospects... unfortunately for him he's been out of that currency for some time, now his true "creative" colors will show.

 

If Lohse is the best the Brewers can do, we're hopelessly out manned now and in the near future. Kyle pitched great, but we gave up a 1st round pick the team desperately needed to finish 4th in the division and under .500. The move made no sense from any kind of macro view, it's the kind of move than can only be justified by framing the argument around the rotation for a single season... any larger perspective and the logic just doesn't hold up. Simply put the Brewers were still horrible in 2013 with Lohse and had no chance to add an impact player than might have helped in the future.

[paul253]

The Brewers will add bullpen arms and trade for a good SP, and sign Hart. They will be fine next season.

 

Mark? Is that you?

 

Seriously though. Who are they going to trade for? More importantly, who do they have that they CAN trade that is good enough to bring back a quality SP?

[PrinceFielderx1]

That signing is going to allow us to compete the next 2 years for a wild card spot.

 

You clearly don't understand the other side of this argument if you are making blanket statements.

 

Assuming perfect health with some good breaks in close games this team is maybe a mid 80s winner... Is that what the eternally optimistic are hoping for? Repeating the excellent best case scenario that was the 2011? A couple of key players were on the DL in April and that was it, smooth sailing the rest of the year.

 

I'll appeal one more time for people to take a macro view of the division. Who has ascending youth? Which teams are already better? For example on the MLB forum someone brought up that Beltran is leaving STL, but so what? They can replace him with Oscar Taveras who's one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues. Obviously yes I know 2013 was a lost season with family issues and injuries for him, but he has the potential to be a stud.

 

The Cardinals may not win 97 games, but they aren't falling off all that far and are getting more youthful. They are what posters like me were hoping the Brewers would become... mostly perennial contenders with the occasional down year. They have more WS wins since DM took over the Brewers than the Brewers have WS appearances in the history of the franchise.

 

Pittsburgh will be able to insert a legit impact pitcher into the rotation (excluding Cole who's already up) each year for the next 2-3 seasons. There will likely be some growing pains with their youngsters, but I would expect them to compete for the division every year in the near term.

 

Cincinnati will maintain over the next 2-3 years until they hit the stage the Brewers are at now with a bunch of aging veterans and a thin farm system. Cingrani will be up to stay for the Reds, they still have Stephenson coming, and I think Hamilton will be a very productive player at least until he loses a step. After those 3 I'm not so high on the rest of their prospects. Corcino falling off horribly really hurt them, and on the plus side Ervin is intriguing though not toolsy.

 

Finally Chicago is on the verge of having a super line-up, they have more legit hitting prospects than any team I can remember since I started following the minors; Soler, Baez, Almora, Vogelbach, Olt (still a believer), and Bryant. Not to mention Alcantara and Candelario who I've also been impressed with. The Cubs are horribly thin on pitching, right there with the Brewers in comparison with the rest of the division, but the difference is the Cubs can buy pitching in FA to go with the bats when they mature.

 

The NL central has become one of if not the best division in baseball, many of us have been saying for years that there is very strong management around the division, it's been a steady climb for the Central for years. The Brewers are clearly the 4th best team in the division, and have a much tougher road to that wild card than the 2nd place team in any other NL division. When the division was "down" we were 3rd place team as often as not, and now that Jack Z's scouting department who drafted Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Gallardo, and so on are gone, there are no more impact potential prospects to trade for a short term pitching. Melvin's "best" moves have been bought with prospects... unfortunately for him he's been out of that currency for some time, now his true "creative" colors will show.

 

If Lohse is the best the Brewers can do, we're hopelessly out manned now and in the near future. Kyle pitched great, but we gave up a 1st round pick the team desperately needed to finish 4th in the division and under .500. The move made no sense from any kind of macro view, it's the kind of move than can only be justified by framing the argument around the rotation for a single season... any larger perspective and the logic just doesn't hold up. Simply put the Brewers were still horrible in 2013 with Lohse and had no chance to add an impact player than might have helped in the future.

 

I'm not going to look at this in the false way that you are doing by taking last season division standing as a measure of where the Brewers are at. Considering what we found out in Gomez and Segura and what we already know in Lucroy, and knowing that we went the majority of the season without Ryan Bran, Rameriz, and Hart I'd re-think calling the brewers a 4th place team when if they had gotten more playing time out of Hart, Braun and Ramirez and had they had 1 more pitcher like Lohse they could have easily been the 2nd best team in the division.

 

Lohse is right up there with Gallardo. I view them both as a 1/2 SP's, then thre is Peralta with his high ceiling, Estrada, and 2 very impressive SP's in Nelson, and Thornburg who both really impressed at the end of last season. Add in there another number 2 SP, and our rotation will be good enough to go with what will likely be the top offense in Baseball should Hart be re-signed. The Brewers bullpen was 3-4 th in the NL last year or was in all of MLB? The Brewers starting rotation was BETTER than the Cardinals during the last few months of the season.

 

Btw.. I'm not going to even think about injury's in this equation, because they happen to every team and you don't know when and for how long they will strike. I just know what these Brewers players are capable of.

 

We clearly have different views/projections of this Brewers team. I'm not worried at all. That's in large part because i know DM and know what he will likely do, and that is go after another top pitcher and more bullpen help.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers will add bullpen arms and trade for a good SP, and sign Hart. They will be fine next season.

 

Mark? Is that you?

 

Seriously though. Who are they going to trade for? More importantly, who do they have that they CAN trade that is good enough to bring back a quality SP?

 

Considering I said in October of 2010 that the Brewers (Doug Melvin) would trade for 2 top SP's that off-season when everybody here and elsewhere including sports writers said we didn't have the farm system, and I knew the Brewers were the favorites for Sabathia, I have this front office pegged.

 

I have no clue who they will trade for, but they will trade for somebody. It also has a lot to do with keeping season ticket holders and ticket sales. Mark A will demand it.

[3and2Fastball]

Aoki plus a pitching prospect or two for a Starting Pitcher seems feasible. Hope it isn't Jimmy Nelson

[paul253]

I'd re-think calling the brewers a 4th place team when if they had gotten more playing time out of Hart, Braun and Ramirez and had they had 1 more pitcher like Lohse they could have easily been the 2nd best team in the division.

 

It's an awfully big assumption saying that Corey Hart and one additional starting pitcher makes us the second best team in the division considering the second best team in the division was 20 games better than us last year.

 

I view them both as a 1/2 SP's,

 

Neither Yovani Gallardo nor Kyle Lohse are #1s. I hope we can all agree on that. If Kyle Lohse was a #1 he would have been signed long before we got him.

 

Add in there another number 2 SP, and our rotation will be good enough to go with what will likely be the top offense in Baseball should Hart be re-signed.

 

I'm sorry but this is absurd. First of all who is this #2 we are going to find? I'm not sure trading our entire minor league system is good enough to bring back a #2 right now. And adding Corey Hart makes us the best offense in baseball? The same Corey Hart who missed the entire season because of a knee problem? He's going to take a team that finished 18th in OPS last year and make us the best offense in baseball? And we know for sure that Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are going to put up the same numbers they put up in the first half last year and not the second? We know Aramis Ramiriez is going to stay healthy? We know Braun will be the same player after missing over half a year?

[paul253]

I have this front office pegged.

Oh my.

[MNBrew]

I'd re-think calling the brewers a 4th place team when if they had gotten more playing time out of Hart, Braun and Ramirez and had they had 1 more pitcher like Lohse they could have easily been the 2nd best team in the division.

 

It's an awfully big assumption saying that Corey Hart and one additional starting pitcher makes us the second best team in the division considering the second best team in the division was 20 games better than us last year.

 

I view them both as a 1/2 SP's,

 

Neither Yovani Gallardo nor Kyle Lohse are #1s. I hope we can all agree on that. If Kyle Lohse was a #1 he would have been signed long before we got him.

 

Add in there another number 2 SP, and our rotation will be good enough to go with what will likely be the top offense in Baseball should Hart be re-signed.

 

I'm sorry but this is absurd. First of all who is this #2 we are going to find? I'm not sure trading our entire minor league system is good enough to bring back a #2 right now. And adding Corey Hart makes us the best offense in baseball? The same Corey Hart who missed the entire season because of a knee problem? He's going to take a team that finished 18th in OPS last year and make us the best offense in baseball? And we know for sure that Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are going to put up the same numbers they put up in the first half last year and not the second? We know Aramis Ramiriez is going to stay healthy? We know Braun will be the same player after missing over half a year?

Your last paragraph implies the anticipated outcome to every instance/scenario you mention should be negative, which, given all those circumstances compared to the long view of those players' career norms even in light of some of the questions you raise, is just as absurd as you're suggesting PFx1's viewpoint is. On this board it's so easy & convenient to shoot down anyone's optimism (which in this case I share with PFx1), but there can easily be just as much folly in the persistent and blanket negativism.

 

To turn around one of your earlier points above, Hart an another decent SP sure CAN'T turn the 2013 Brewers into the 2nd best team in the division because so many other things went wrong beyond Hart's absence and poor 1st starting pitching. However, IF only half of those "everything that could go wrong did" things go wrong this year in comparison with last year, a healthy Hart performing reasonably, even without another SP added, should help make the 2014 Brewers a whole heck of a lot better than the 2013 Brewers were.

 

Even including his lousy month of May, on the whole Lohse still had a rather good year and you can't really argue that. Everyone knows the reason Lohse signed so late was because of the QO he declined and the draft pick consequently attached to him, all in combination with his reported asking price (whether each prospective teams' hang up was with the dollars, term, or both). Sure, Lohse isn't a true "classic" #1, but there aren't very many of those in MLB at any given time. That said, he is a pretty consistently darn good SP.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd re-think calling the brewers a 4th place team when if they had gotten more playing time out of Hart, Braun and Ramirez and had they had 1 more pitcher like Lohse they could have easily been the 2nd best team in the division.

 

It's an awfully big assumption saying that Corey Hart and one additional starting pitcher makes us the second best team in the division considering the second best team in the division was 20 games better than us last year.

 

I view them both as a 1/2 SP's,

 

Neither Yovani Gallardo nor Kyle Lohse are #1s. I hope we can all agree on that. If Kyle Lohse was a #1 he would have been signed long before we got him.

 

Add in there another number 2 SP, and our rotation will be good enough to go with what will likely be the top offense in Baseball should Hart be re-signed.

 

I'm sorry but this is absurd. First of all who is this #2 we are going to find? I'm not sure trading our entire minor league system is good enough to bring back a #2 right now. And adding Corey Hart makes us the best offense in baseball? The same Corey Hart who missed the entire season because of a knee problem? He's going to take a team that finished 18th in OPS last year and make us the best offense in baseball? And we know for sure that Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are going to put up the same numbers they put up in the first half last year and not the second? We know Aramis Ramiriez is going to stay healthy? We know Braun will be the same player after missing over half a year?

 

I see differences between a #1 sp and an ACE. Just wanted to make that clear.

 

Lohse was better than Gallardo last season and you guys are complaining about that deal? seriously guys.

 

No, adding Corey Hart and having Braun and Ramirez back healthy makes us the best offense in baseball when you also include guys like Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy.

 

Segura got tired at the end of last season, because he play winter ball the off-season before. He will have a better year in 2014. Gomez is in his prime and has grown so much as a player. We know what to expect from him. He's an all-star gold glover. All the worries about Braun are overstated. He will have another MVP year and who would be foolish enough to doubt that. We know what Braun does year in and year out. He's consistently great.