Blow it Up?

[Warning Track Power]

http://mlbreports.com/2013/11/09/braun-2/

 

This got me thinking...It certainly appears the Brewers are not going to be competitive in the next few seasons given the state of our roster versus that of the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds. Additionally, given the state of our MiLB rosters versus those three and the Cubs, the future isn't exactly looking real bright either.

 

Does it make sense for us to blow it all up and start over again?

 

Barring something unforeseen, the Brewers should be a 78 - 84 win team for the next few seasons with the current roster, but a playoff appearance in the next few seasons definitely seems unlikely. If this is the case, should we not be making a play to be competitive in 2016 or 2017 versus fighting to remain .500 in 2014 and 2015? Would it be better for the team in the long term to make tough choices today, like trading Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, etc... in order to have a young crop of high end talent HOPEFULLY rise at the same time in 2016/17?

 

Curious to what everyone's feelings are on this...

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

I'm starting to favor blowing it up. If the Brewers aren't going to compete, then they might as well be building towards the future. It sucks but that's just how baseball is at the moment. Blow this sucker up and go get some prospects. The Brewers need to take a page out of the A's playbook and learn when to blow things up and start over. That's the way things are for small-market teams. You compete for 5 seasons and then you start over. The Marlins are smart. They know that they can't compete with the big dogs every year. They wait for the right moment and then they take their chance. The Marlins made the right choice in trading away all those FA acquisitions. Now they are good shape with all of those young prospects.

[Roderick]

My only thought is, would the Brewers get anything close to value for Braun? I don't know if teams are going to give up his true value until they see him produce for at least half a season in 2014. Plus that allows the fans ire to die down a little and make it more palatable for a team to trade for him.

[trwi7]

Every player on this team should be made available and traded for the right offer. This organization is just so far behind the rest of the NL Central both in terms of winning right now and having a system that can produce impact talent.

 

They need to completely start over because what they're doing obviously isn't working.

 

Edit: I just read that "article" and it makes Bleacher Report look legitimate.

 

"I'm not going to spend too much time talking about the suspension."

 

Talks about the suspension through the entire "article".

[jerichoholicninja]

They are in a really tricky spot. It's not like the team is all old veterans. They have 3 very good young players at hard to find positions in Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy. Do you trade those players and risk getting back players who don't pan out?

 

If you blow it up do you hold on to Peralta, Thornburg, Davis, and Gennett who will be entering their prime and getting expensive when the window to compete opens up again or risk trading them for players with equal or better ceilings?

 

What about Braun? Do you trade him and get back no where near his value or do you tell him to be a good soldier and keep him through the losing?

 

The Brewers are in that horrible position of not lacking talent but not having enough talent to compete.

[brewcrewdue80]

http://mlbreports.com/2013/11/09/braun-2/

 

This got me thinking...It certainly appears the Brewers are not going to be competitive in the next few seasons given the state of our roster versus that of the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds.

Does it make sense for us to blow it all up and start over again?

 

Barring something unforeseen, the Brewers should be a 78 - 84 win team for the next few seasons with the current roster, but a playoff appearance in the next few seasons definitely seems unlikely. If this is the case, should we not be making a play to be competitive in 2016 or 2017 versus fighting to remain .500 in 2014 and 2015? Would it be better for the team in the long term to make tough choices today, like trading Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, etc... in order to have a young crop of high end talent HOPEFULLY rise at the same time in 2016/17?

 

My feelings. I've been pushing for a trade away and build prior to signing Lohse so they should be known.

 

The thing of it is, we say we are a 78-84win team on paper it appears that way. But, Stl. and Pitts Pitching that is coming up....Man, forget the offensive talent, this could be like facing the Atlanta Braves of the 90s...Times Two! throughout the season. And these are all young/locked up Pitching on both teams we're talking about so this could be sustained for the next 5seasons of basically the new versions of Tom Glavine,Greg Maddux, and John Smoltz.

 

Honestly, yes we are a 78-84 win team on paper but facing Stl/Pitts I fear a dominant run vs us in the season series by both where in reality we are only a 72-77win team because we'll be lucky to eek out 4-5 wins vs. those two in each series. Unlike the 8-10 on paper you'd think is possible.

[MNBrew]

I think this article doesn't bring up anything that hasn't been addressed ad nauseum. For however much logic there is behind "blowing it up," there's so little chance that another team would take on the contract and so little chance the Brewers would get anything close to fair value in return. For those reasons alone, I don't see a Braun trade as either realistic or smart. This winter would be about the worst timing for making such a move.

 

If he was indeed clean when he was reportedly tested more than any other player in 2012 and put up better numbers than in his 2011 MVP year, then what is there to fear about him being in the lineup? IMO, to trade him before he proves that to be true would be sheer foolishness.

 

The "talent gap" may be significant, but that also means they need to maximize any opportunity to close it, not just make a hasty or inadequate move for poor "baseball-smart" reasons.

[nate82]

The only part you need to read in this article:

 

Maybe, just maybe, the Brewers can go back to the Angels one more time and deal Braun for a player like Mark Trumbo, OF like Peter Bourjos and perhaps one other player like Erick Aybar or Howie Kendrick to sweeten the pot up. It would be a win – win situation for both clubs.

 

After reading that part you can just put this article in the garbage where it belongs.

[Warning Track Power]

It was the idea of trading Braun and essentially blowing up the current roster that made me ask the question, not the quality of the article.

[nate82]

It was the idea of trading Braun and essentially blowing up the current roster that made me ask the question, not the quality of the article.

 

Basically even thinking about trading Braun right now is not a good idea as you are not going to get anything close to the value you need to get back in trading him. Teams are not going to give up top tier prospects for Braun right now. The best option the Brewers can do is keep Braun right now and wait it out maybe in the future the Brewers will be able to trade him but not now as his value is really low at the moment.

[igor67]

Outside of the Cards every other team in our division has a perfectly reasonable chance of having things turn out just like they did for us over the last few years. The Cards have loads of MLB talent with a track record, but not yet aged and the minor league talent. Everyone else is hoping things keep breaking their way. Enough so that depending on how 1st base gets plugged, and how we round out the bullpen depth we've got a decent shot at a playoff birth (maybe as high as 1/3). Compared to our historic rate of making the playoffs that screams competitive. After next year things could be different if everyone else talent actually pans out than you might need to consider taking a dive.

[Mass Haas]

A true blow it up at this point is a 5-7 year process with no guarantees at the end. Ask Cubs fans (Rizzo, Castro).

 

No thanks.

 

Watch as the Votto contract weighs down the Reds maneuvers, they're going to take some hits this offseason. Pirates? Did the 2011 96-win Brewers find a way to fall back? Let's see the Cardinals hit at insanely historic rates with RISP for another season.

 

I'm not going to blow up a cost-controlled productive middle of Lucroy-Segura-Gomez, with Braun (even at let's say 85% past capacity).

 

There's obviously dozens of extra layers this conversation can take, more on both the positive and negative than I can convey in a few sentences, but just making sure fans realize what a true blow-up process entails. Huge amounts of pain and hope.

 

I personally enjoy a competitive April through as late as possible, knowing that an 83-win club won the World Series as recently as 2006.

 

But I do recognize your sentiments, and I'm also guessing those all come from a much younger crowd

[logan82]

We don't need to blow it up. We do need to get in the mindset that if a player isn't under control in 2016 they should definitely be on the trading block.

 

Holding on to Gomez makes zero sense to me. He is probably the best trading chip we have to make a quick turnaround. I can see a good argument being made to hold onto Braun, Lucroy and Segura. Beyond that, everybody else is likely to be gone by the time we can acquire impact talent. Mind you all trades based on fair return.

[brewcrewdue80]

\Watch as the Votto contract weighs down the Reds maneuvers, they're going to take some hits this offseason.

I'm not worried about the Reds. I think they are about equal with us in standing just about. Only slightly ahead. Overachieved this year with Choo's OB prowess that will be gone and leaving a huge hole that Billy Hamilton is questionable to hold.

 

 

Pirates? Did the 2011 96-win Brewers find a way to fall back?

2011 Brewers were filled with Grienke/Marcum/Gallardo Pitching that wasn't going to be on the team after 2012.

Pittsburgh's Pitchers in their system are Grienke's in the making. Not one, 4 of them. How would the 2013 Brewers been with 4 Grienke's on the team? Yes they aren't going to all be their 2014 but by 2015 the writing is on the wall for them to be there. MVP McCutchen and Offensive minded OF prospects plus SS with elite pitching? Pittsburgh will be Tampa Bay Rays with 90+win seasons through 2020 more than likely

 

Let's see the Cardinals hit at insanely historic rates with RISP for another season.

Well Beltran will be gone and he was a part of that insane rate so yeah that can't be expected.

What can though? Wainright,Wacha,Miller,Lynn, and then whoever Stl deems their #5

Rosenthal again a better thought of pitcher than Wacha/Miller is their closer...He's got that on lock...something early this season StL. had questions on...for the foreseeable future.

 

This boils down to Pitching. And clearly the failures of Rogers,Bradley,Jungmann are to blame for the bleak outlook vs. our competition. Whereas, Stl and Pitts has HIT on their Pitching draft selections we Struck Out. Now's the time to cash in on the ML Roster talent to build up the minor league talent. When the Minor League talent is 2-4years away and we are dealing with an aging roster that needs young talent to back it up that isn't there? While the two best teams in our division not only have the ML Roster Talent but the depth to back it up that may actually be better in the long run than the current ML players holding those players?

 

This is all chasing a dream you dream that this is a 84Win team with 90wins that can come from it. But be Forewarned Months like May 2013 are there on this roster vs. this division. It could happen in May again or say the dream is being lived out only for that 5win month to happen in September. Either way as it stands. The Brewers are Stuck in the Middle. Something said we don't want to be and yet are determined not to let go being stuck in!

[Jaylyn]

This boils down to Pitching. And clearly the failures of Rogers,Bradley,Jungmann are to blame for the bleak outlook vs. our competition.

 

While I do agree with you that it boils down to pitching, i don't quite believe Bradley and Jungmann can be categorized as failures yet. While Bradley has questions, Jungmann seems to be what many scouting reports claimed, a good middle of the rotation "innings eater" with good, not great, stuff. You are right on Rogers, he went from the disappointment to failure category this year. However, and maybe this is a glass half full viewpoint, while young, I'm hopeful that Thornburg and Nelson can continue the success each had at the end of last year, throw in a healthy Burgos, a more seasoned Hellweg, an upcoming Ariel Pena and David Goforth, and Peralta is still just 24. A very good rotation could be developing.

[TURBO]

Even when mentioning all the guys above, I don't see an ACE in that entire group. Not a true ACE anyway.

[paul253]

I don't think blowing it up makes any sense until you deal with the real issue. The Brewers have no idea how to draft and develop their own talent. Until they completely revamp their scouting department I don't think trading Braun makes any sense.

 

They also need the owner and GM to come to a definitive decision. They can't kinda try to rebuild while also trying to compete at the same time. You can't trade away a guy or two then replace him with an expensive FA who has average to slightly above average career numbers. I'll never forget the way DM last season announced that any trade they make would be to help the club two or three years down the road. Fans finally believe management realized the state the franchise was in. Then Melvin goes on to make all of one trade while holding onto plenty of other guys who should have garnered interest. And I don't think anyone here really believes DM and Mark A. will make any moves this offseason that are designed to be beneficial two or three years from now. This team needs to get out of this rut and the owner needs to give his fans a little more credit. We'll understand the moves so long as it appears as though you know what you're doing.

[JohnBriggs12]

You don't blow up a roster that is dominated by quality position players, almost all of whom are 30 and under. Pitching is far more ethereal (those that don't know what that means look it up) and hard to project. You blow up this roster and not only do you need to find pitching you have to find everyday talent as well.

 

Then there is money. We take for granted this team will draw. They "blow it up" and they lose fans that never come back.

 

As long as 61 year old Doug Melvin is at the helm, it will take more than one disappointing season to come to the conclusion to blow things up. I think when healthy this team is behind one team in the division and that's the Cardinals. The chances of them blowing up a very solid roster and somehow getting on even terms with the Cards over the next decade are close to nil. The next 3-4 years they should be competitive, with it very possible that pitching can all come together at least one of those years. It's a pipe dream to think somehow they are going to be a playoff team year after year so take what's possible, and don't spend time dreaming of a day that will never happen.

[logan82]

They definitely would lose fans that would never come back. Those fans would stay away like they have the last decade when the team got better.

[paul253]

You blow up this roster and not only do you need to find pitching you have to find everyday talent as well.

 

Well ideally if you blow up the roster you obtain some of that pitching. You don't just give guys away, you get something in return. That is where him being able to successful evaluate young unproven talent would come in handy. I'm not sure he has that ability.

 

It's a pipe dream to think somehow they are going to be a playoff team year after year so take what's possible, and don't spend time dreaming of a day that will never happen.

It's only a pipe dream because our current management has set their expectations too low. Melvin looks at one year at a time instead of looking at the bigger picture. You win with pitching. We don't have it. We can't get it. Instead of obtaining young guys in trades or hiring a scout that knows how to better evaluate prospects he relies way too much on free agency and the same ole same ole. Do people realize that in over a decade as GM Melvin has still only developed 3 successful starting pitchers (Sheets, Gallardo, Peralta...and even Peralta is kind of a reach so far)! Seriously.....three pitchers in over a decade. And you wonder why we can't put together a playoff team year in year out? It's not that we can't, it's that DM is unable to figure out how.

[umphrey]

Maybe they can punt on 2014 and build for 2015?

 

-Trade Gomez for 2 top 100 pitcher prospects or 1 top 10

-Salary dump Aramis and Lohse, either throw it in the bank or spend it on player development

-Build around Braun, Segura, Lucroy and whatever we get out of the Gomez trade

 

It would be hard because we have so many gaping holes pretty much everywhere else. Who is our future 3B? We are putting a lot of stock in Hunter Morris, Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis.

[torts]

why would you trade the face of the franchise (because lets face it, he still is) at his least-valuable point in his career (after an injury plagued/suspended season)? trading him now reeks of desperation

[craigharmann]

Torts touched on where my head goes. Sure, blow it up, but what are you getting in return? Braun's value is as low as it could be, as is Yo's. Weeks isn't going to get you much, neither is A-Ram or Lohse. So, you're somewhat stuck if you're the Brewers. Be mediocre, develop your guys, draft well, and hopefully in 3-4 years you'll get some of these guys in the pipeline and then things will happen.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I'm sure that Doug really isn't to totally blame for the development of pitchers. The front office needs to do something about scouting and player development.

[TheCrew07]

I believe in sports there really isn't a "status quo". Either your organization is moving forward, or it's moving backwards. The tricky part is that many times "moving backwards" is happening in the background like with the Brewers where the drafting is poor and the minor leagues are further thinned to bring in "win now" short term solutions.

 

It's like any other bubble that bursts... tech stocks, housing, whatever you wish to choose. Things can look fine on the surface, maybe even great such as they did for the Brewers in 2011, and it becomes very easy to look past future issues for the present. However when it all comes crashing down the same people that were championing legislation or trades that enabled that bubble to grow are now flipping sides and bemoaning the collapse and how unfair it is.

 

The Brewers quit building towards anything meaningful when Braun came up and started playing the patching game with the roster. Defense stinks, get better defenders, the starting pitching stinks, trade for proven pitching, the bullpen stinks, sign different BP guys... it's just simply whack-a-mole with roster spots. There's no brilliance in what DM has done, he gets the best players he can afford, some years it works, most years it doesn't.

 

Gomez may be young be relative to many of us, but he's not "young" in a sports sense, he's in his peak years, now is the time to sell high if you're going to sell him. He'll be 28 next year. Segura is "young", he'll only be 24 next season. Young players are <=25 year old range, if a player isn't established by the time he's 25 then chances are he's not going to be much of a player. Of course there are exceptions where a player is blocked, get's injured, or steps away from the game for any number of reasons and will come back, but generally speaking most impact 25-26 year olds are already arbitration eligible as they have 3 full seasons of MLB experience. (college vs HS draft status matters as impact college players tend to be a tad older and in the past didn't sign until the deadline so didn't play professionaly until the following season).

 

28 is middle aged from a professional sports standpoint...

 

The goal as a franchise should be to extend players early into their very early 30s and then let them walk. Take their best years, thank them for their service, and then let someone else pay them for what they've done while they decline statistically and spend more time on the DL. On a $90 million payroll the Brewers simply aren't able to afford a couple of $10 million players on the DL for significant chunks of the season, that's just too much dead money. Players are going to injured, there is nothing fair about the lopsided revenues in MLB, but by playing in FA and trading prospects for short term solutions Melvin has played right into the hands of the system. Every dead dollar hurts the Brewers vastly more than the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels... etc. It's not fair, so why play the system in a way that minimizes the value per dollar like the Brewers have done? To beat such a lopsided system we have to exploit the holes, be out in front of trends, maximize talent on the dollar... pretty much exactly the opposite of Melvin. He'd be great in a large market, but his conservative style (yes conservative, there's no risk in trading for CY pitching) will only get the Brewers so far. If the last 7 years haven't proven that to people, I'm not sure what else can. 1 appearnce in the NLCS shouldn't be good enough for anyone simply because it's so much better than the 30 years which came before it.

 

Success should be measured relative to the ultimate goal, not relative to the past. There's certainly some value in comparing the ascension, but in the terms of being a truly competitive franchise the Brewers are pretenders: we've only finished better than 3rd a total of 3 times since 2007, and the 83-79 finish in 2007 wasn't really competitive as the division was downright awful. That's not the cyclical nature of professional sports, that's a reflection of Melvin's management style.

 

Yes it could always be worse with a different GM, but that's not a reason for inaction:

 

There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.

-John F. Kennedy

Iron rusts from disuse; water loses its purity from stagnation... even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind.

-Leonardo da Vinci

I never worry about action, but only inaction.

-Winston Churchill