Baseball America: Brewers 2014 Top 10 Prospects

[trwi7]

1. Jimmy Nelson, rhp

2. Tyrone Taylor, of

3. Mitch Haniger, of

4. Johnny Hellweg, rhp

5. Victor Roache, of

6. Taylor Jungmann, rhp

7. Orlando Arcia, ss

8. David Goforth, rhp

9. Devin Williams, rhp

10. Hunter Morris, 1b

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects/

 

And a depressing tweet from Ben Badler.

 

[MVP2110]

Kind of surprised by the rankings honestly, Im no expert by any means just kind of figured Morris would be higher and surprised to see Hellweg and Haniger as high as they are

[paul253]

It's not THAT bad of a list. Just nobody that screams "major league all-star". If Taylor, Arcia and Williams all have good years that list looks a lot better next season. If Roache can bring up the average to the .280 range while maintaining the power he'll look like a steal. And if Coulter can stay healthy and hit he won't look like such a bust. I know a lot of if's but you have to do something to convince yourself the organization isn't in complete disrepair.

 

Man, a top 6 pick would have looked really nice next June. But at least we got hot and only finished 16 games out of the wild card spot.

[paul253]

Looking at that article I think even more pathetic than the top 10 list is the organization top 15 players under 25 list. For an organization than needs young talent to survive Doug Melvin and his scouting department sure have done a terrible job acquiring that talent. When you only have two players in the entire organization under the age of 25 that profile as anything other than a role player or a middle of the rotation starter you know you are in trouble. The Brewers are going to need 2 or 3 very, very solid drafts in order to start turning this ship around. I'm sure I'm not the only one here who has little faith in that happening.

[narwhalattack]

Well, when you get hot when it doesn't matter, become desperate to put up the illusion of competing to the point where you punt away a draft pick, draft lower ceiling guys in the hope of them reaching the majors sooner (never forget the 2011 draft), and gut the farm system in the name of competing, a crappy farm system is what you get.

 

Oh, and wouldn't Carlos Rodon look great at the top of this list right now?

[nate82]

 

And a depressing tweet from Ben Badler.

 

 

I am not sure why Taylor wouldn't be a top 100 prospect. Billy Hamilton is a top 50 talent and if a 4th or 5th OF is a top 50 talent why wouldn't Taylor be a top 100 prospect? Sometimes I wonder about these rankings it is like some fall in love with a prospect and become completely delusional about that player until they absolutely fall flat on their face.

 

Last year Hamilton's walks went down by half and his average and OBP both took significant hits. If a .250/.308 hitter is a top 50 talent in AAA then we have some problems here with the prospect rankings as this should not be a top 50 player I do not care how many steals you get as a .308 OBP is horrible for a player who is there to steal bases. Along with the horrible OBP Hamilton has very poor plate discipline shown by his 102 strike outs last year and 38 walks.

 

If Taylor is not in the top 100 prospect list and Hamilton is again in the top 50 I have lost faith in Baseball America being subjective at all in their prospect rankings.

[LouisEly]

Looking at BA's top 100 lists I rarely see anyone on the list who wasn't a 1st or 2nd round draft pick, signed for 1st round money, or an international free agent that signed for 1st round money. Look at what Khris Davis did in the minors, particularly an unheard of .948 OPS in Brevard, a stadium that just destroys RH hitters, in 2011 and between AA and AAA in 2012, and he never cracked the Top 100. You can't tell me that there were 100 other minor league players those two years that will outproduce him in the majors. Fifty, yes, maybe 75, but not 100. Hell, Matt Wieters was the #1 prospect in baseball in 2009 and Jonathan Lucroy, who never cracked the Top 100, has a higher career OPS than Wieters. Paul Goldschmidt never was a Top 100 prospect and he just finished second in the MVP voting; three of the top four MVP finishers in the NL never made a BA Top 100. Honestly, I think BA either doesn't look at anyone who wasn't a 1st/2nd round pick or singed for 1st round money or they automatically cross them off the list.

 

Point being, the BA Top 100 is nothing to get worked up over and is no indication of the future success of any player, much less any franchise.

[igor67]

The development of pitching is an on going concern, but the value we have consistently produced out of position guys despite rankings is certainly welcome. I fully expect at least 2 of the 5 position players to be above average regulars, and a number of them have the right types of tools that they can be the guy that really puts it all together. Haniger's AFL stint seems to have helped elevate his status, and I'm curious to see what comes next. If nothing else the plethora of competent OFers and lack of high 1st base guys might be the factor that pushes Braun to first over RF if the goal is to get Davis starting (which it should be). Still don't know quite where he will slot in with the bat year in and out, but the best bet for having a contending team is stacking the line-up and hoping for better health.

[brewmann04]

The Brewers Need to find that top of the line starter via the draft.

[MNBrew]

Disclaimer: I didn't look any of this up, so I'm playing hunches, yet with something of a decent generalized memory....

 

When was the last time the Brewers got a lotta love in the Top 100? Wouldn't it have been when Weeks & Fielder were coming up . . . plus Hardy, Braun, & Hart (but surely Rickie & Prince plus the rest due to their draft status)? And I'll bet Braun was never ranked as high as Weeks or Fielder, but character flaws and all, I'd still prefer having a player of his ability on the team these days over Weeks or Fielder. Hart was never considered a big-time prospect -- regarded nicely, yes, but never commensurate with how his MLB ability turned out -- in spite of good year after good year in the minors.

 

My point is that I think LouisEly's point about BA's predisposition toward top draft picks & big-buck int'l signings is right on.

 

In some ways BA can be very ESPN-ish. Lack of blue-chip of bonus-baby prospects doesn't mean you're devoid of all talent -- just the glitzy kind. And glitz doesn't mean everything. Nieves, Bosio, & Wegman, Braggs & Jaha & Vaughn were all supposed to be the next wave of championship-level players for the Brewers. None proved to be career-long MLB elite players. Arguably Plesac had the best career of any of the pitchers from that era of the farm system, and he wasn't even slotted to be a reliever until he made the team in ST coming out of AA El Paso. At least under Trebelhorn they kept having winning years, but only in '87 & 92 were they even close to the playoffs (and thankfully quite close at that). . . . All that BA love and how many post-season games did that batch of "uber" prospects get us? Right: NONE.

 

All that said, a large influx of high-end talent would do wonders. The Jungmanns, Bradleys, Arnetts, etc. eventually turning into solid MLB pitchers would do wonders, too. Hellweg & Pena finding MLB-caliber control would do wonders, too. All three of these sentences become reality would suddenly turn MIL's system into something they ooh-and-ahhh about again.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The top 100 is irrelevant. It has zero meaning to me when it comes to rating the Brewers system. This can be a separate discussion and it also has relevance here, but heading into the 2010 off-season after Melvin realized he made a huge mistake by not getting better pitching in his rotation I predicted that he would sign 2 top pitchers despite people calling me crazy, because they didn't believe we had the talent in the farm to get them, including these minor league analyst. I was proven correct, DM went out and got both Greinke and Marcum. I said it then and I'll say it again DM will get another Lohse/Gallardo type this off-season, and any of Nelson, Taylor, Hellweg or Thornburg could be traded to get that pitcher.

[SoupTown]

Maybe this is too off topic, but I want to comment on what Doug will do this off season. Doug EVERY year plugs holes he saw the year before. This off season will be the year we sign first baseman after first baseman. We will have no shortage of first base covering.

 

You recall last off season Doug honed in on the bull pen. And indeed he fixed it.

 

The starting pitching the year PFx1 says was the Greinke/Marcum show.

 

When third base was crap a couple of years ago, Doug found all sorts of money for ARam.

 

We should be thankful Davis and Scooter showed a non elite prospect can play. And you recall last year Doug was all gushie over our young starters that had a handful of starts for success.

 

So, I will be happy when Doug gets Hart back for a 3 mill base and 3 mill in incentives. Then a 6 mill option for 2015. Then we end up having the same team for 2014 and 2015 - which was similar to what we should have had this year. My feeling is we need to actually let the guys we have play. We cannot edge up or edge down. We cannot improve a lot. And Doug has no stomach for a rebuild.

 

Oh, I can link back to the topic. We actually do not need a bundle of high end prospects THIS offseason. We have no where to put them. 2014 needs to be the minors 2014 development year. Our AA team needs to be young and GOOD. If our MLB team stinks again in 2014 and the 2014 minors are mediocre.... we are dead for five or six years. It will not be pretty.

[Mass Haas]

Baseball America - 2014 Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects Chat with Tom Haudricourt

[Patrick425]

As usual, I'll disagree with a majority on this board. Baseball America's rankings are never perfect. There are usually 20 or so players in the top 100 who end up falling on their faces after cracking the top 100, but in general, I think they do a pretty good job with the rankings. My feeling is that the lack of Brewer prospects in the top 100 has little to do with any perceived bias by Baseball America and everything to do with the lack of talent in the Brewers farm system.

 

In regards to Billy Hamilton...he was ranked in the top 50 after two seasons of above .400 OBP. I think it's very reasonable to rank a player who has two seasons with over 100 stolen bases and two seasons with .400+ OBP in the top 50. After last season, I think there is a decent chance that he will not be in the top 50 this year. However, should they completely discount his A and AA numbers because of one "off" season at AAA? If he can still steal 75 bases with a .308 obp, you have to wonder what he can do if he can get that up to .340 or .350?

 

Lastly, you can't just compare raw numbers between all minor leaguers in every system. Some play in hitter's leagues. Some play in pitcher's leagues. Some play in hitter's parks...etc.

 

edit: Also..Tyrone Taylor in the top 100? I'm not seeing it. 75 ABs with solid numbers at the rookie ball level followed by above average numbers, at best, at LoA is not exactly top 100 type stuff. The fact that he is ranked #2 in the Brewers org. is pretty sad and pretty telling about the state of the Brewer's minor league system. If he was an infielder with those numbers, maybe..but an OF? Meh.

[JoeHova]

I agree with Patrick. No prospect ranking system is going to be perfect but there's no reason to believe Baseball America is biased against the Brewers. I think they do a good job covering minor league baseball.

[trwi7]

Disclaimer: I didn't look any of this up, so I'm playing hunches, yet with something of a decent generalized memory....

 

When was the last time the Brewers got a lotta love in the Top 100?

 

Last 10 years

 

2012 - 3 (Peralta 56, Jungmann 70, Bradley 71) Segura was also 55th but he was obviously with the Angels when the list came out

2011 - 0

2010 - 3 (Escobar 12, Lawrie 59, Gamel 89)

2009 - 4 (Escobar 19, Gamel 34, Lawrie 81, Jeffress 100)

2008 - 2 (LaPorta 23, Parra 72)

2007 - 3 (Gallardo 16, Braun 26, Inman 91)

2006 - 3 (Fielder 11, Rogers 44, Braun 49)

2005 - 5 (Weeks 8, Fielder 15, Capellan 25, Hardy 28, Rogers 55)

2004 - 6 (Weeks 5, Fielder 10, Hardy 19, Nelson 48, Parra 69, Jones 84)

2003 - 5 (Nelson 23, Jones 56, Fielder 78, Hendrickson 90, Hart 91)

[Mass Haas]

Hellweg blazing path to Milwaukee

Sluggers Hopkins, Haniger among top prospects for Brewers

By Kelsie Heneghan / MiLB.com

 

***

 

Now, Greg Hopkins played his high school ball less than 40 miles from me in Massachusetts before going on to St. John's, and I'm pulling for the guy, but a .602 OPS as a 24-year-old in High-A shouldn't net you "slugger" bylines, even playing at Space Coast in the FSL.

 

Pretty sure Kelsie is a nice young lady, but MiLB.com (and MLB Advanced Media) can't allow a watering down of their content when stuff like that happens.

 

20-year-old Renaldo Jenkins would have been a better choice, or give it to Scooter, but beyond that, it's a sobering look at the state of the system, well beyond second base.

 

Did like the Brent Suter love, though July and August were not stellar.

[homer]

Disclaimer: I didn't look any of this up, so I'm playing hunches, yet with something of a decent generalized memory....

 

When was the last time the Brewers got a lotta love in the Top 100?

 

Last 10 years

 

2012 - 3 (Peralta 56, Jungmann 70, Bradley 71) Segura was also 55th but he was obviously with the Angels when the list came out

2011 - 0

2010 - 3 (Escobar 12, Lawrie 59, Gamel 89)

2009 - 4 (Escobar 19, Gamel 34, Lawrie 81, Jeffress 100)

2008 - 2 (LaPorta 23, Parra 72)

2007 - 3 (Gallardo 16, Braun 26, Inman 91)

2006 - 3 (Fielder 11, Rogers 44, Braun 49)

2005 - 5 (Weeks 8, Fielder 15, Capellan 25, Hardy 28, Rogers 55)

2004 - 6 (Weeks 5, Fielder 10, Hardy 19, Nelson 48, Parra 69, Jones 84)

2003 - 5 (Nelson 23, Jones 56, Fielder 78, Hendrickson 90, Hart 91)

 

 

That list is very telling as to the predictive usefulness of the top 100. I think after the top 15 or 20 it's all a crapshoot.

 

By the way, I bet Ben Hendrickson's dad wrote them a letter and complained that his son was ranked too low.

[Outlander]

Looking at that list there are not many players even in hindsight that they should have added. Maybe Lucroy, Cain, Brantley.

[sveumrules]

So out of the 21 players we've had in a BA Top 100 over the last 10 years, I'd rank them as follows...

 

Legit Stars (Braun, Fielder)

All Stars (Gallardo, Hardy, Hart, Weeks)

All Glove No Hit Shortstop (Escobra)

One of the Greatest DIPS Outliers of All Time (Parra)

Needs More Time (Peralta, Lawrie, Jungmann, Bradley)

BUSTS (Nelson, Jones, Hendrickson, Capellan, Rogers, Inamn, LaPorta, Gamel, Jeffress)

 

So that's 9 out of 21 clear busts with Bradley getting pretty close as well. Depending on your criteria one could argue that Parra hasn't really lived up to his potential/prospect ranking and I wouldn't disagree but I have a hard time calling anybody with 550 career innings and almost 5 million in gross MLB paychecks a bust, especially considering he was a draft and follow to begin with.